A USAF mission this morning found low-level circulation and a large area of 40-50mph winds over the western Gulf. Additionally, satellite images show an expansion of the scattered deep convection associated with the system. Based on this, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicholas. The storm is moving NNW at 13mph and this motion is expected to continue today.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas TX
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Port Aransas TX to High Island TX including Matagorda and Galveston Bays.
Storm surge watch has been issued from the mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island TX
Flash Flood Watch from 7PM tonight through Tuesday night for most of Houston region
NOAA satellite image of Nicholas as of 10AM CDT Houston time.Nicholas’ track should bring the storm onshore near Matagorda Bay.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, predicts, “Nicholas will be moving over warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico in fairly favorable upper level conditions and steady intensification is likely up to landfall. Most models predict the system to become a mid-range tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a 65mph tropical storm at landfall. A reasonable worst case potential is a category 1 hurricane, but at this time that looks unlikely.
Nicholas’ track places southeast Texas on the “dirty” side of the system with onshore winds and bands of heavy rainfall,” says Lindner.
Rainfall Starting Later Today
By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with a heavy rain threat continuing across coastal areas through the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall could produce areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.
Hourly rainfall rates could be high during this time with 2-3 inches possible, which would lead to some flooding in more urban areas.
How far this storm moves inland will determine how far heavy rains advance on Monday. Says Lindner, “Certainly the coastal counties (Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, and Jackson) will see heavy rainfall, but this could extend inland into southern Liberty, southern Harris, Fort Bend, and Wharton counties also.” He predicts:
Coastal Counties: widespread 5-8 inches (isolated areas 10-15 inches)
South of I-10: widespread 3-6 inches (isolated areas 8-12 inches)
North of I-10: widespread 2-4 inches (isolated areas 6 inches)
5-Day Forecasted Accumulated RainfallThe NWS Weather Prediction Center shows heavy rain and flash flooding are possible for most of the upper Texas coast through mid-week.
Flood Potential
Lindner says, “Given the tropical moisture in place hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches will be possible under the stronger cells which will lead to quick accumulations. While grounds are dry initially, waves of rainfall will gradually saturate the soils leading the increasing run-off. Flooding will be possible, especially across the coastal counties and areas south of I-10 where the greatest rainfall is most likely at the moment.”
Most of the Houston area will have a slight (10%) chance of flash flooding for the next three days.
Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Should Arrive in Houston Tuesday Morning
Tropical storm force winds should hit the Houston area Tuesday morning.
2-4 Feet of Storm Surge Likely in Galveston Bay
Nicholas should bring 2-4 feet of storm surge to the upper Texas coast.
Posted on 9/12/2021 by Bob Rehak based on Information from NHC and HCFCD
1475 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Nickolas-at-Formation.jpg?fit=1000%2C719&ssl=17191000adminadmin2021-09-12 10:52:232021-09-12 11:30:56Tropical Storm Nicholas Forms in Gulf
According to the National Hurricane Center, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered around the Yucatan has a 70% chance of turning into a tropical cyclone in the next two days. NHC gives it an 80% chance of formation within five days.
Although upper-level winds are not currently conducive for tropical cyclone development. However, they should become more favorable during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water. However, because the storm has no organized center at this time, where it will make landfall is hard to predict.
As of 7am CDT Saturday, September 11, 2021
“Global forecast models agree that a surface low will form, but where exactly remains in question,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
The majority of the models predict the storm will focus on the western Gulf coastline. However, some models bring the storm closer to the Houston area.
Regardless, counter-clockwise rotation around any tropical cyclone should put Houston on the dirty side.
Heavy Rains Could Produce Flash and Urban Flooding
People along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. This disturbance should produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
According to Lindner, “By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast. Expect rain over most of coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash and urban flooding.”
“Significant rainfall will be possible from Monday through Wednesday with excessive short-term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour under any banding, training, or clustering of stronger cells.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Expect very wet days early next week, especially near the coast. How far inland the heavy rains extend will depend on the degree of tropical cyclone development and the track of the storm. At this time, with high uncertainty, forecasters expect the heaviest rains near the coast with lower amounts inland.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common over much of the area with much higher totals of 5-10 inches near the coast. Isolated totals in certain areas could exceed 10 inches.
While grounds are generally dry over the area, the magnitude of the rainfall in a short period of time could result in significant run-off generation especially over urban areas. Flooding concerns will increase as grounds become saturated early next week.
Winds/Seas/Tides
The high degree of uncertainty on where where any tropical cyclone will strike also affects winds, seas, and tides. But at the present, Lindner predicts easterly and southeasterly winds today into Sunday. He sees them increasing into the 20-30 mph range with seas building 6-10ft offshore by late Sunday into Monday.
Larger swells moving onto the coast will likely lead to some wave run-up and minor coastal flooding during high tides from late Sunday into early next week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/11/2021based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1474 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/two_atl_5d0-1.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2021-09-11 09:14:002021-09-11 18:25:44Tropical Cyclone Formation Likely over Gulf
Jason Webster, lead attorney for hundreds of Elm Grove, North Kingwood Forest and Porter plaintiffs in lawsuits arising from two floods in 2019, confirmed for ReduceFlooding.com that the defendants have reached a settlement agreement with plaintiffs. Defendants in the Elm Grove lawsuits included Perry Homes; Figure Four Partners LTD.; PSWA, Inc; LJA Engineering; Double Oak Construction, Inc.; Rebel Contractors, Inc.; Texasite, LLC; and Concourse Development, LLC.
Settlement Comes Two Years After Second Flood
Confirmation of the settlement comes almost two years to the day after sheet flow from Woodridge Village flooded Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest for the second time in five months.
Elm Grove debris pile from Imelda, two days after sheet flow from Woodridge Village flooded the area.
Webster says the settlement agreement prohibits disclosure of the terms, but he did say that it was “…resolved to our satisfaction.” Webster says he and co-counsel Kimberley Spurlock, who also represented plaintiffs in the lawsuits, “…still have to communicate with the clients on this and we have not done so yet as far as amounts. That has to be determined by a special master which has been appointed to administer the settlement.”
However, Webster added, “All plaintiffs who participated in the lawsuit will receive a settlement offer.”
Hints of Movement Toward an Agreement in Early August
I first caught wind of a potential settlement from updates to the Harris County District Clerks’ website when Webster and Spurlock moved to establish an Elm Grove Settlement Fund and appoint a Master-in-Chancery in early August. Then, on August 16, Judge Lauren Reeder approved both the Fund and the Chancery motions. However, two defendants, LJA and Rebel, still objected. Interestingly, the Rebel objection contained a reference that it was not a party to a global settlement with the other defendants.
Then yesterday, an unsigned trial preparation order showed up on the District Clerk’s website. I emailed Webster and later that day, he confirmed the settlement.
Motion to set trial was to be heard on 9/20/2021.That should no longer be necessary.
Facing a trial on the merits of the case often brings defendants to the settlement table when they realize delays are no longer possible. I have been on jury panels for several cases over the years. Interestingly, in every single instance, the defendants chose to settle when the jury panel walked into the room to begin the selection process.
The settlement should come as a welcome relief for many plaintiffs who were devastated financially by the repeat floods.
Elm Grove activist Jeff Miller had this to say about the settlement. “I am thrilled for those that suffered greatly and hope that this settlement will discourage future negligence by bad actors.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2021
1473 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 722 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Elm-Grove-9.19_71.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2021-09-10 15:15:392021-09-10 17:32:17Elm Grove Lawsuits Settled!
Tropical Storm Nicholas Forms in Gulf
A USAF mission this morning found low-level circulation and a large area of 40-50mph winds over the western Gulf. Additionally, satellite images show an expansion of the scattered deep convection associated with the system. Based on this, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicholas. The storm is moving NNW at 13mph and this motion is expected to continue today.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, predicts, “Nicholas will be moving over warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico in fairly favorable upper level conditions and steady intensification is likely up to landfall. Most models predict the system to become a mid-range tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a 65mph tropical storm at landfall. A reasonable worst case potential is a category 1 hurricane, but at this time that looks unlikely.
Nicholas’ track places southeast Texas on the “dirty” side of the system with onshore winds and bands of heavy rainfall,” says Lindner.
Rainfall Starting Later Today
By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with a heavy rain threat continuing across coastal areas through the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall could produce areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.
Hourly rainfall rates could be high during this time with 2-3 inches possible, which would lead to some flooding in more urban areas.
How far this storm moves inland will determine how far heavy rains advance on Monday. Says Lindner, “Certainly the coastal counties (Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, and Jackson) will see heavy rainfall, but this could extend inland into southern Liberty, southern Harris, Fort Bend, and Wharton counties also.” He predicts:
Flood Potential
Lindner says, “Given the tropical moisture in place hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches will be possible under the stronger cells which will lead to quick accumulations. While grounds are dry initially, waves of rainfall will gradually saturate the soils leading the increasing run-off. Flooding will be possible, especially across the coastal counties and areas south of I-10 where the greatest rainfall is most likely at the moment.”
Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Should Arrive in Houston Tuesday Morning
2-4 Feet of Storm Surge Likely in Galveston Bay
Posted on 9/12/2021 by Bob Rehak based on Information from NHC and HCFCD
1475 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tropical Cyclone Formation Likely over Gulf
According to the National Hurricane Center, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered around the Yucatan has a 70% chance of turning into a tropical cyclone in the next two days. NHC gives it an 80% chance of formation within five days.
Environment Becoming Conducive for Development
Although upper-level winds are not currently conducive for tropical cyclone development. However, they should become more favorable during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water. However, because the storm has no organized center at this time, where it will make landfall is hard to predict.
“Global forecast models agree that a surface low will form, but where exactly remains in question,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
The majority of the models predict the storm will focus on the western Gulf coastline. However, some models bring the storm closer to the Houston area.
Regardless, counter-clockwise rotation around any tropical cyclone should put Houston on the dirty side.
Heavy Rains Could Produce Flash and Urban Flooding
People along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. This disturbance should produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
According to Lindner, “By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast. Expect rain over most of coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash and urban flooding.”
Expect very wet days early next week, especially near the coast. How far inland the heavy rains extend will depend on the degree of tropical cyclone development and the track of the storm. At this time, with high uncertainty, forecasters expect the heaviest rains near the coast with lower amounts inland.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common over much of the area with much higher totals of 5-10 inches near the coast. Isolated totals in certain areas could exceed 10 inches.
While grounds are generally dry over the area, the magnitude of the rainfall in a short period of time could result in significant run-off generation especially over urban areas. Flooding concerns will increase as grounds become saturated early next week.
Winds/Seas/Tides
The high degree of uncertainty on where where any tropical cyclone will strike also affects winds, seas, and tides. But at the present, Lindner predicts easterly and southeasterly winds today into Sunday. He sees them increasing into the 20-30 mph range with seas building 6-10ft offshore by late Sunday into Monday.
Larger swells moving onto the coast will likely lead to some wave run-up and minor coastal flooding during high tides from late Sunday into early next week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/11/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1474 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Elm Grove Lawsuits Settled!
Jason Webster, lead attorney for hundreds of Elm Grove, North Kingwood Forest and Porter plaintiffs in lawsuits arising from two floods in 2019, confirmed for ReduceFlooding.com that the defendants have reached a settlement agreement with plaintiffs. Defendants in the Elm Grove lawsuits included Perry Homes; Figure Four Partners LTD.; PSWA, Inc; LJA Engineering; Double Oak Construction, Inc.; Rebel Contractors, Inc.; Texasite, LLC; and Concourse Development, LLC.
Settlement Comes Two Years After Second Flood
Confirmation of the settlement comes almost two years to the day after sheet flow from Woodridge Village flooded Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest for the second time in five months.
Webster says the settlement agreement prohibits disclosure of the terms, but he did say that it was “…resolved to our satisfaction.” Webster says he and co-counsel Kimberley Spurlock, who also represented plaintiffs in the lawsuits, “…still have to communicate with the clients on this and we have not done so yet as far as amounts. That has to be determined by a special master which has been appointed to administer the settlement.”
However, Webster added, “All plaintiffs who participated in the lawsuit will receive a settlement offer.”
Hints of Movement Toward an Agreement in Early August
I first caught wind of a potential settlement from updates to the Harris County District Clerks’ website when Webster and Spurlock moved to establish an Elm Grove Settlement Fund and appoint a Master-in-Chancery in early August. Then, on August 16, Judge Lauren Reeder approved both the Fund and the Chancery motions. However, two defendants, LJA and Rebel, still objected. Interestingly, the Rebel objection contained a reference that it was not a party to a global settlement with the other defendants.
Then yesterday, an unsigned trial preparation order showed up on the District Clerk’s website. I emailed Webster and later that day, he confirmed the settlement.
Facing a trial on the merits of the case often brings defendants to the settlement table when they realize delays are no longer possible. I have been on jury panels for several cases over the years. Interestingly, in every single instance, the defendants chose to settle when the jury panel walked into the room to begin the selection process.
The settlement should come as a welcome relief for many plaintiffs who were devastated financially by the repeat floods.
Elm Grove activist Jeff Miller had this to say about the settlement. “I am thrilled for those that suffered greatly and hope that this settlement will discourage future negligence by bad actors.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2021
1473 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 722 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.