According to the National Hurricane Center, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered around the Yucatan has a 70% chance of turning into a tropical cyclone in the next two days. NHC gives it an 80% chance of formation within five days.
Although upper-level winds are not currently conducive for tropical cyclone development. However, they should become more favorable during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water. However, because the storm has no organized center at this time, where it will make landfall is hard to predict.
As of 7am CDT Saturday, September 11, 2021
“Global forecast models agree that a surface low will form, but where exactly remains in question,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
The majority of the models predict the storm will focus on the western Gulf coastline. However, some models bring the storm closer to the Houston area.
Regardless, counter-clockwise rotation around any tropical cyclone should put Houston on the dirty side.
Heavy Rains Could Produce Flash and Urban Flooding
People along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. This disturbance should produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
According to Lindner, “By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast. Expect rain over most of coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash and urban flooding.”
“Significant rainfall will be possible from Monday through Wednesday with excessive short-term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour under any banding, training, or clustering of stronger cells.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Expect very wet days early next week, especially near the coast. How far inland the heavy rains extend will depend on the degree of tropical cyclone development and the track of the storm. At this time, with high uncertainty, forecasters expect the heaviest rains near the coast with lower amounts inland.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common over much of the area with much higher totals of 5-10 inches near the coast. Isolated totals in certain areas could exceed 10 inches.
While grounds are generally dry over the area, the magnitude of the rainfall in a short period of time could result in significant run-off generation especially over urban areas. Flooding concerns will increase as grounds become saturated early next week.
Winds/Seas/Tides
The high degree of uncertainty on where where any tropical cyclone will strike also affects winds, seas, and tides. But at the present, Lindner predicts easterly and southeasterly winds today into Sunday. He sees them increasing into the 20-30 mph range with seas building 6-10ft offshore by late Sunday into Monday.
Larger swells moving onto the coast will likely lead to some wave run-up and minor coastal flooding during high tides from late Sunday into early next week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/11/2021based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1474 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/two_atl_5d0-1.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2021-09-11 09:14:002021-09-11 18:25:44Tropical Cyclone Formation Likely over Gulf
Jason Webster, lead attorney for hundreds of Elm Grove, North Kingwood Forest and Porter plaintiffs in lawsuits arising from two floods in 2019, confirmed for ReduceFlooding.com that the defendants have reached a settlement agreement with plaintiffs. Defendants in the Elm Grove lawsuits included Perry Homes; Figure Four Partners LTD.; PSWA, Inc; LJA Engineering; Double Oak Construction, Inc.; Rebel Contractors, Inc.; Texasite, LLC; and Concourse Development, LLC.
Settlement Comes Two Years After Second Flood
Confirmation of the settlement comes almost two years to the day after sheet flow from Woodridge Village flooded Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest for the second time in five months.
Elm Grove debris pile from Imelda, two days after sheet flow from Woodridge Village flooded the area.
Webster says the settlement agreement prohibits disclosure of the terms, but he did say that it was “…resolved to our satisfaction.” Webster says he and co-counsel Kimberley Spurlock, who also represented plaintiffs in the lawsuits, “…still have to communicate with the clients on this and we have not done so yet as far as amounts. That has to be determined by a special master which has been appointed to administer the settlement.”
However, Webster added, “All plaintiffs who participated in the lawsuit will receive a settlement offer.”
Hints of Movement Toward an Agreement in Early August
I first caught wind of a potential settlement from updates to the Harris County District Clerks’ website when Webster and Spurlock moved to establish an Elm Grove Settlement Fund and appoint a Master-in-Chancery in early August. Then, on August 16, Judge Lauren Reeder approved both the Fund and the Chancery motions. However, two defendants, LJA and Rebel, still objected. Interestingly, the Rebel objection contained a reference that it was not a party to a global settlement with the other defendants.
Then yesterday, an unsigned trial preparation order showed up on the District Clerk’s website. I emailed Webster and later that day, he confirmed the settlement.
Motion to set trial was to be heard on 9/20/2021.That should no longer be necessary.
Facing a trial on the merits of the case often brings defendants to the settlement table when they realize delays are no longer possible. I have been on jury panels for several cases over the years. Interestingly, in every single instance, the defendants chose to settle when the jury panel walked into the room to begin the selection process.
The settlement should come as a welcome relief for many plaintiffs who were devastated financially by the repeat floods.
Elm Grove activist Jeff Miller had this to say about the settlement. “I am thrilled for those that suffered greatly and hope that this settlement will discourage future negligence by bad actors.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2021
1473 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 722 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Elm-Grove-9.19_71.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2021-09-10 15:15:392021-09-10 17:32:17Elm Grove Lawsuits Settled!
Tomorrow, September 10th, is the statistical peak of hurricane season.
Peak based on 100 years of data.
And the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is actively monitoring four areas in the Atlantic Basin.
As of 7PM Houston time on 9/9/2021.
Currently, a 40% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation
That orange area is currently where Ida and Mindy both formed in the last two weeks. In the last couple days, the NHC has steadily upgraded its chances of tropical formation. As of tonight, they give it a 40% chance sometime within the next five days.
Currently, NHC describes Area #1 as a tropical wave.
The northern portion of the wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western Caribbean Sea.
This system should move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing heavy weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions support gradual development. A tropical depression could form by early next week before the system moves inland over mainland Mexico. According to NHC:
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.
Increasing Chances of Excessive Rainfall, Likely Starting Sunday
Dry air currently over the region will yield hot days and “coolish” nights into Saturday with no chance of rainfall. However, the tropical wave will change that. A pool of deep tropical moisture will increase rain chances along the TX coast from Sunday through Wednesday of next week. It could arrive as early as Saturday evening, but more likely will arrive on Sunday.
Shower and thunderstorm activity over the western Gulf will become widespread during the weekend and into early next week. Global models are largely in agreement on a surge of moisture along the TX coast from Sunday through Wednesday. Copious rainfall is likely.
The National Weather Service extended 7-day forecast has been increasing the forecast amounts for the north Houston area throughout the day.
Between this morning and this evening, that bright orange area has crept farther inland.
Widespread 5-7 Inches, 10-12 Possible
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, warns that a weak tropical cyclone could form from this. “Several models have been bouncing around with this over the last several days. They show weak closed surface lows along the Mexican or Texas coastline next week,” says Lindner. “While any sort of surface low that may form next week would help to focus rainfall in that particular area, it is unclear where any low may form if at all and generally does not change the overall wet pattern that is incoming.”
The NWS Weather Prediction Center currently shows rainfall accumulations for next week could total 5-7 inches near the coast with slightly less inland. Lindner, however, predicts that isolated areas could see as much as 10-12 inches by the middle of next week.
No predictions have been made yet regarding potential flooding issues.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/2021 based on information from NHC, NWS, and HCFCD
1472 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 721 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/p168i.gif?fit=800%2C561&ssl=1561800adminadmin2021-09-09 19:58:442021-09-09 20:03:43Excessive Rainfall Likely Next Week
Tropical Cyclone Formation Likely over Gulf
According to the National Hurricane Center, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered around the Yucatan has a 70% chance of turning into a tropical cyclone in the next two days. NHC gives it an 80% chance of formation within five days.
Environment Becoming Conducive for Development
Although upper-level winds are not currently conducive for tropical cyclone development. However, they should become more favorable during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water. However, because the storm has no organized center at this time, where it will make landfall is hard to predict.
“Global forecast models agree that a surface low will form, but where exactly remains in question,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
The majority of the models predict the storm will focus on the western Gulf coastline. However, some models bring the storm closer to the Houston area.
Regardless, counter-clockwise rotation around any tropical cyclone should put Houston on the dirty side.
Heavy Rains Could Produce Flash and Urban Flooding
People along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. This disturbance should produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
According to Lindner, “By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast. Expect rain over most of coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash and urban flooding.”
Expect very wet days early next week, especially near the coast. How far inland the heavy rains extend will depend on the degree of tropical cyclone development and the track of the storm. At this time, with high uncertainty, forecasters expect the heaviest rains near the coast with lower amounts inland.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common over much of the area with much higher totals of 5-10 inches near the coast. Isolated totals in certain areas could exceed 10 inches.
While grounds are generally dry over the area, the magnitude of the rainfall in a short period of time could result in significant run-off generation especially over urban areas. Flooding concerns will increase as grounds become saturated early next week.
Winds/Seas/Tides
The high degree of uncertainty on where where any tropical cyclone will strike also affects winds, seas, and tides. But at the present, Lindner predicts easterly and southeasterly winds today into Sunday. He sees them increasing into the 20-30 mph range with seas building 6-10ft offshore by late Sunday into Monday.
Larger swells moving onto the coast will likely lead to some wave run-up and minor coastal flooding during high tides from late Sunday into early next week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/11/2021 based on information from NHC and HCFCD
1474 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Elm Grove Lawsuits Settled!
Jason Webster, lead attorney for hundreds of Elm Grove, North Kingwood Forest and Porter plaintiffs in lawsuits arising from two floods in 2019, confirmed for ReduceFlooding.com that the defendants have reached a settlement agreement with plaintiffs. Defendants in the Elm Grove lawsuits included Perry Homes; Figure Four Partners LTD.; PSWA, Inc; LJA Engineering; Double Oak Construction, Inc.; Rebel Contractors, Inc.; Texasite, LLC; and Concourse Development, LLC.
Settlement Comes Two Years After Second Flood
Confirmation of the settlement comes almost two years to the day after sheet flow from Woodridge Village flooded Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest for the second time in five months.
Webster says the settlement agreement prohibits disclosure of the terms, but he did say that it was “…resolved to our satisfaction.” Webster says he and co-counsel Kimberley Spurlock, who also represented plaintiffs in the lawsuits, “…still have to communicate with the clients on this and we have not done so yet as far as amounts. That has to be determined by a special master which has been appointed to administer the settlement.”
However, Webster added, “All plaintiffs who participated in the lawsuit will receive a settlement offer.”
Hints of Movement Toward an Agreement in Early August
I first caught wind of a potential settlement from updates to the Harris County District Clerks’ website when Webster and Spurlock moved to establish an Elm Grove Settlement Fund and appoint a Master-in-Chancery in early August. Then, on August 16, Judge Lauren Reeder approved both the Fund and the Chancery motions. However, two defendants, LJA and Rebel, still objected. Interestingly, the Rebel objection contained a reference that it was not a party to a global settlement with the other defendants.
Then yesterday, an unsigned trial preparation order showed up on the District Clerk’s website. I emailed Webster and later that day, he confirmed the settlement.
Facing a trial on the merits of the case often brings defendants to the settlement table when they realize delays are no longer possible. I have been on jury panels for several cases over the years. Interestingly, in every single instance, the defendants chose to settle when the jury panel walked into the room to begin the selection process.
The settlement should come as a welcome relief for many plaintiffs who were devastated financially by the repeat floods.
Elm Grove activist Jeff Miller had this to say about the settlement. “I am thrilled for those that suffered greatly and hope that this settlement will discourage future negligence by bad actors.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2021
1473 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 722 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Excessive Rainfall Likely Next Week
Tomorrow, September 10th, is the statistical peak of hurricane season.
And the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is actively monitoring four areas in the Atlantic Basin.
Currently, a 40% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation
That orange area is currently where Ida and Mindy both formed in the last two weeks. In the last couple days, the NHC has steadily upgraded its chances of tropical formation. As of tonight, they give it a 40% chance sometime within the next five days.
The northern portion of the wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western Caribbean Sea.
This system should move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing heavy weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions support gradual development. A tropical depression could form by early next week before the system moves inland over mainland Mexico. According to NHC:
Increasing Chances of Excessive Rainfall, Likely Starting Sunday
Dry air currently over the region will yield hot days and “coolish” nights into Saturday with no chance of rainfall. However, the tropical wave will change that. A pool of deep tropical moisture will increase rain chances along the TX coast from Sunday through Wednesday of next week. It could arrive as early as Saturday evening, but more likely will arrive on Sunday.
Shower and thunderstorm activity over the western Gulf will become widespread during the weekend and into early next week. Global models are largely in agreement on a surge of moisture along the TX coast from Sunday through Wednesday. Copious rainfall is likely.
The National Weather Service extended 7-day forecast has been increasing the forecast amounts for the north Houston area throughout the day.
Widespread 5-7 Inches, 10-12 Possible
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, warns that a weak tropical cyclone could form from this. “Several models have been bouncing around with this over the last several days. They show weak closed surface lows along the Mexican or Texas coastline next week,” says Lindner. “While any sort of surface low that may form next week would help to focus rainfall in that particular area, it is unclear where any low may form if at all and generally does not change the overall wet pattern that is incoming.”
The NWS Weather Prediction Center currently shows rainfall accumulations for next week could total 5-7 inches near the coast with slightly less inland. Lindner, however, predicts that isolated areas could see as much as 10-12 inches by the middle of next week.
No predictions have been made yet regarding potential flooding issues.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/2021 based on information from NHC, NWS, and HCFCD
1472 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 721 since Imelda