Here’s a regulatory update on the synchronization of flood regs in cities and counties throughout the region.
Harris County can spend billions on flood mitigation, but if upstream communities keep sending more water downstream, we may never see improvement. That’s why Harris County Flood Control and Harris County Engineering launched an initiative to harmonize regulations in 2020. The program is still active but has had mixed results to date.
The departments identified five key measures that they asked surrounding cities and counties to implement:
Use Atlas 14 rainfall rates for sizing storm water conveyance and detention systems.
Require a minimum detention rate of 0.55-acre feet per acre of detention for any new development one acre or larger. However, a single-family residential structure and accessory buildings proposed on an existing lot is exempt from providing detention.
Prohibit the use of hydrograph timing as a substitution for detention on any project unless it directly outfalls into Galveston Bay.
Require no net fill in the current mapped 500-year floodplain, except in areas identified as coastal zones only
Require the minimum Finished Floor Elevation (FFE) of new habitable structures be established at or waterproofed to the 500-year flood elevation as shown on the effective Flood Insurance Study.
The county used partnership agreements as a lever. Communities/counties that didn’t update their regulations were not eligible for partner funds from the flood bond. The pitch worked well in some cases, partially in others, and not at all in a few.
Where Adoption Stands
The table below shows where things stand in different communities. The three columns represent those who:
Already finished upgrading regulations to minimum standards.
Identified updates but have not yet made them
Have not taken any action to update their ordinances or regulations.
Cooperation status as of December 2021
EHRA is an engineering company working with Harris County to analyze current regulations and identify which areas need updates. In the last column, municipalities/counties either didn’t respond, chose not to participate, or refused. Waller, Brazoria County and Galveston County did not respond. Montgomery County said it would not participate. The other four didn’t request the free EHRA analysis when offered.
According to the Harris County Engineering Department, an analysis only takes a month. And some cities have updated their regulations within a month of completing the analysis.
In fairness, it’s important to note that some jurisdictions, such as Montgomery County, have adopted Atlas 14 standards, even if they haven’t adopted the other recommendations.
Ways to Help
Please help address the holdouts. Do you know influencers in communities that have not yet updated their regs? Can you leverage industry connections willing to show support? Spread the word within your community? Generate some buzz online? Write an email to your county commissioner or judge? Enlist the help of friends or relatives in neighboring communities?
The further we get from the pain of Harvey and Imelda, the less motivated people seem to be to adopt regulatory reforms. So please act soon.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/17/2022
1602 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
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Who teaches young home buyers about flood risk? No one in my experience.
More than forty years ago, I bought a new house next to a creek in a Dallas suburb. The trees and the view attracted me. Before I put money down, I asked about flooding and was assured that the home was two feet ABOVE the hundred-year flood plain. The homebuilder even showed me a survey and a drainage study, and pointed to the engineers’ stamps. I pulled out my checkbook and made the most tragic, costly decision of my young life.
Within a year, other developers just upstream from me built the Collin Creek Mall and Plano became the fastest growing city in America. With each passing month, rains made the creek swell higher. Then one day after a modest rain, I saw a pickup truck floating down the creek and the water creeped into my house.
Alarmed, I called the City Engineer. He convened a task force that included Garland, Richardson and Plano City Engineers. They asked the Army Corps of Engineers to re-survey the creek. The Corps found that…
…instead of being two feet above the 100-year floodplain, we were now 10 feet below it.
Had I known such dramatic change could happen so quickly, I never would have bought the home. I decided to sell, disclosed the flood risk, and lost a pile of money.
Costly Lessons Learned
That experience taught me several lessons.
Flood forecasting is a very inexact science. Changing conditions – such as upstream development, climate and political priorities – make it so. They are beyond the ability of engineers to predict.
Developers use the surveys and analyses that engineers produce to obtain building permits.
Their documents do not reflect the potential for future change.
Homebuilders, nevertheless, use the engineering documents to reassure future buyers that they are safe.
All along the way, people throughout the value chain make expensive binary decisions based on documents that don’t reflect future flood-risk. Permit or don’t? Invest or don’t? Build or don’t? Lend or don’t?
Flood Risk is Non-Binary, Flood Education Non-Existent
Professionals understand the flood risks involved. Members of the public rarely do. And that’s a powerful argument for flood-risk education and fuller disclosure.
But buy a house with a view of a river! You’ve achieved the American Dream, paid a premium, and the only information people volunteer along the way is a reminder to buy flood insurance.
It’s as if the chance of flooding equals the chance of getting hit by lightning.
But the odds of flooding in a “500-year rain” are 1 in 500 – a thousand times greater. But most home buyers don’t worry about that. So builders keep building in flood plains. And buyers keep buying.
Everyone along the way – land owners, developers, public officials, engineers, and home builders – is financially incentivized to “make the sale.” Growth is good – especially to the people who enable it.
Example: Need for Flood-Risk Education
Below is a photo that shows part of a new development in Porter between Sorters-McClellan Road and the San Jacinto West Fork. At the start of 2019, it was all woods and wetlands bracketed by streams and a drainage ditch. Wetlands and the proximity to floodways increase flood risk.
However, FEMA’s current flood map (see below) was developed in 2014. That was before Harvey. It shows about half of the development (outlined in red) to be in the 100- or 500-year floodplains. But those floodplains will soon expand based on data collected after Harvey. The new flood plains will likely cover most of the site. But is anyone disclosing the current or potential flood risk?
Northpark Woods highlighted in red. Floodplains delineated based on 2014 map which is now being revised and will be released soon.Cross-hatch = floodway. Aqua = 100-year floodplain. Brown = 500-year floodplain.From FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Viewer.
Selling the Dream vs. Disclosing Risk
Young, first-time home buyers will mortgage themselves to the hilt to get a nice home with a water view. But there’s less risk disclosure on this developer’s website than on the back of a candy bar.
New homes here range from $225,000 to more than $300,000 with estimated mortgages starting at about $1,000 per month. The developer claims, “Our homes are where memories are made, families are raised and stories unfold. Our mission is to create thriving, enduring neighborhoods by building new homes with lasting livability.”
The developer’s website also boasts of “close proximity to the West Fork San Jacinto River where locals enjoy swimming, fishing, boating and skiing…” And they brag about nearby championship golf courses, owner financing, online buying, and $95 down. But they never mention flood-risk or even flood insurance once the website that I could find.
People put their life savings in these homes and there’s less disclosure than on a candy bar.
Realistically, that’s not going to change. So “Buyer Beware”! People must educate themselves about flood risk. Start by referring friends and relatives in the market for a home to these posts. They explain where to find reliable, objective information about flooding and flood risk.
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/20211231-DJI_0298.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2022-01-16 15:43:062022-01-16 16:20:36Editorial: Need More Disclosure, Education About Flood Risk
This post will focus primarily on Townsend Reserve. A previous post discussed Forestar’s property, Splendora Crossing.
WGA developed the drainage impact analyses for both developments using 2014 flood maps (see Townsend’s below). New maps are currently in development, but neither analysis mentions that. In fairness, WGA did attempt to calculate new flood elevations using its own measurements. But illustrations showing the old floodplain outlines, without mention of coming changes, may mislead potential buyers.
Townsend Reserve Map showingfloodplain outline in white is based on 2014 map.Homes in dark shaded area will be elevated.
Elevation Land Solutions developed the construction plans for Townsend. It disclosed flood risk more fully.
Disclosure found on virtually every page of construction plans by Elevation Land Solutions.Note second paragraph.
It’s unclear at this time whether Montgomery County itself will attempt to update flood maps based on data acquired since Harvey. That could help buyers, but hurt builders.
Townsend Owned by Camcorp Management
I found little information about Townsend Reserve online except a certificate of formation on the Texas Secretary of State website.
It shows that Townsend Reserve, Ltd. was formed in September 2020 by general partner, Camcorp Management Inc. Both show addresses at 10410 Windermere Lakes Blvd., Houston, TX 77065. Camcorp was formed in 1993 and is associated with several developments in the region, including Brooklyn Trails in Porter. Executives of Camcorp Management are also officers in several homebuilding companies.
High-Density Development
Like Brooklyn Trails, construction documents show that Townsend Reserve will be a high-density development.
I took the two photos below on 1/6/2022. They show the extent of current clearing and drainage mitigation.
Looking west along FM2090 at northern portion of Townsend Reserve. That square of trees in the middle of the shot will eventually become a small retail center serving the development.Looking SW over FM2090 at southern portion of Townsend Reserve
Drainage Analysis Claims “No Adverse Impact”
The drainage impact analysis for Townsend Reserve concludes that the proposed project and associated drainage features will result in “no adverse impact” to existing flood hazard conditions along Gully Branch for storm events up to and including the 100-year event. “No adverse impact” is the gold standard. Engineers must certify it before Montgomery County will approve their plans.
Engineers do this by showing that the estimated runoff after development is no greater than the runoff before development. Detention ponds and channels supposedly hold back the increased peaks due to faster runoff...if all their assumptions and calculations are correct.
The 115.7-acre initial phase of Townsend Reserve’s development include a bypass channel and stormwater detention basin located along the south side of Gully Branch. You can clearly see both in the photos above.
The ultimate development will include the construction of two additional storm water detention basins.
WGA Drainage Impact Analysis
For both Phase 1 and ultimate development, portions of the site will be elevated using fill from excavation of the bypass channel and detention basins. Engineers call this practice “cut and fill.” They do not bring fill into the flood plain. They just move the dirt around. So there’s no reduction of floodplain capacity.
Portions of this fill will be located within the 1% annual chance floodplain based on the 2014 map. WGA’s Drainage Impact Analysis claims, “The proposed project results in lower flood profiles throughout the project reach, and an overall reduction in floodplain storage volume. However, the proposed drainage features provide a more efficient use of the available floodplain storage volume, resulting in no increase in peak flows downstream.”
Analysis Based on Atlas-14 Rainfall, but Old Flood Maps
New post-Harvey flood maps due to be released within months will reportedly show the 100-year floodplain expanding into the 500-year floodplain in most places. That could dramatically alter some of the assumptions above. However, I can find no references to new maps in either WGA analysis for Splendora Crossing or Townsend Reserve.
Montgomery County Atlas-14 requirements are slightly lower than those in the Lake Houston Area because of slightly less rainfall. Therefore, the proposed drainage features for Townsend will result in slightly less detention capacity.
168 acre feet of detention equals .57 acre feet per acre. If this development were in Harris County .65 acre feet per acre would be required.
In fairness to developers, they can’t put their plans on hold indefinitely while new flood maps are drawn and approved. However, in fairness to buyers, you would think the engineering documents would at least disclose the potential of new maps. Likewise, what are man-made and natural factors that increase flood risk, as Elevation Land Solutions pointed out above?
The standards for disclosure in engineering seem lower than the standards for many other industries. I’ve read fuller disclosures on an aspirin bottle.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/15/2022
1600 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/20220115-Screen-Shot-2022-01-15-at-8.44.44-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=18011200adminadmin2022-01-15 23:21:092022-06-05 17:51:55Townsend Reserve, Splendora Crossing Drainage Analyses Omit Mention of New Flood Maps
Post-Harvey Regulatory Update: Mixed Results to Date
Here’s a regulatory update on the synchronization of flood regs in cities and counties throughout the region.
Harris County can spend billions on flood mitigation, but if upstream communities keep sending more water downstream, we may never see improvement. That’s why Harris County Flood Control and Harris County Engineering launched an initiative to harmonize regulations in 2020. The program is still active but has had mixed results to date.
Five Upgrades Recommended
The departments identified five key measures that they asked surrounding cities and counties to implement:
The county used partnership agreements as a lever. Communities/counties that didn’t update their regulations were not eligible for partner funds from the flood bond. The pitch worked well in some cases, partially in others, and not at all in a few.
Where Adoption Stands
The table below shows where things stand in different communities. The three columns represent those who:
EHRA is an engineering company working with Harris County to analyze current regulations and identify which areas need updates. In the last column, municipalities/counties either didn’t respond, chose not to participate, or refused. Waller, Brazoria County and Galveston County did not respond. Montgomery County said it would not participate. The other four didn’t request the free EHRA analysis when offered.
According to the Harris County Engineering Department, an analysis only takes a month. And some cities have updated their regulations within a month of completing the analysis.
In fairness, it’s important to note that some jurisdictions, such as Montgomery County, have adopted Atlas 14 standards, even if they haven’t adopted the other recommendations.
Ways to Help
Please help address the holdouts. Do you know influencers in communities that have not yet updated their regs? Can you leverage industry connections willing to show support? Spread the word within your community? Generate some buzz online? Write an email to your county commissioner or judge? Enlist the help of friends or relatives in neighboring communities?
The further we get from the pain of Harvey and Imelda, the less motivated people seem to be to adopt regulatory reforms. So please act soon.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/17/2022
1602 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Editorial: Need More Disclosure, Education About Flood Risk
Who teaches young home buyers about flood risk? No one in my experience.
More than forty years ago, I bought a new house next to a creek in a Dallas suburb. The trees and the view attracted me. Before I put money down, I asked about flooding and was assured that the home was two feet ABOVE the hundred-year flood plain. The homebuilder even showed me a survey and a drainage study, and pointed to the engineers’ stamps. I pulled out my checkbook and made the most tragic, costly decision of my young life.
Within a year, other developers just upstream from me built the Collin Creek Mall and Plano became the fastest growing city in America. With each passing month, rains made the creek swell higher. Then one day after a modest rain, I saw a pickup truck floating down the creek and the water creeped into my house.
Alarmed, I called the City Engineer. He convened a task force that included Garland, Richardson and Plano City Engineers. They asked the Army Corps of Engineers to re-survey the creek. The Corps found that…
Had I known such dramatic change could happen so quickly, I never would have bought the home. I decided to sell, disclosed the flood risk, and lost a pile of money.
Costly Lessons Learned
That experience taught me several lessons.
All along the way, people throughout the value chain make expensive binary decisions based on documents that don’t reflect future flood-risk. Permit or don’t? Invest or don’t? Build or don’t? Lend or don’t?
Flood Risk is Non-Binary, Flood Education Non-Existent
Professionals understand the flood risks involved. Members of the public rarely do. And that’s a powerful argument for flood-risk education and fuller disclosure.
But buy a house with a view of a river! You’ve achieved the American Dream, paid a premium, and the only information people volunteer along the way is a reminder to buy flood insurance.
It’s as if the chance of flooding equals the chance of getting hit by lightning.
According to the CDC, the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are only around 1 in 500,000.
But the odds of flooding in a “500-year rain” are 1 in 500 – a thousand times greater. But most home buyers don’t worry about that. So builders keep building in flood plains. And buyers keep buying.
Everyone along the way – land owners, developers, public officials, engineers, and home builders – is financially incentivized to “make the sale.” Growth is good – especially to the people who enable it.
Example: Need for Flood-Risk Education
Below is a photo that shows part of a new development in Porter between Sorters-McClellan Road and the San Jacinto West Fork. At the start of 2019, it was all woods and wetlands bracketed by streams and a drainage ditch. Wetlands and the proximity to floodways increase flood risk.
However, FEMA’s current flood map (see below) was developed in 2014. That was before Harvey. It shows about half of the development (outlined in red) to be in the 100- or 500-year floodplains. But those floodplains will soon expand based on data collected after Harvey. The new flood plains will likely cover most of the site. But is anyone disclosing the current or potential flood risk?
Selling the Dream vs. Disclosing Risk
Young, first-time home buyers will mortgage themselves to the hilt to get a nice home with a water view. But there’s less risk disclosure on this developer’s website than on the back of a candy bar.
New homes here range from $225,000 to more than $300,000 with estimated mortgages starting at about $1,000 per month. The developer claims, “Our homes are where memories are made, families are raised and stories unfold. Our mission is to create thriving, enduring neighborhoods by building new homes with lasting livability.”
The developer’s website also boasts of “close proximity to the West Fork San Jacinto River where locals enjoy swimming, fishing, boating and skiing…” And they brag about nearby championship golf courses, owner financing, online buying, and $95 down. But they never mention flood-risk or even flood insurance once the website that I could find.
A home in the 100-year floodplain has, on average a 1-in-4 chance of flooding during the life of a 30-year mortgage. And keep in mind that those floodplains are shifting targets. Even a home in the 500-year floodplain has a 6% chance of flooding in 30 years.
All up and down the West Fork, East Fork, Bens Branch, Spring Creek, Peach Creek, White Oak Creek, Luce Bayou, Tarkington Bayou, and other area watersheds, similar developments are sprouting up in risky places.
Realistically, that’s not going to change. So “Buyer Beware”! People must educate themselves about flood risk. Start by referring friends and relatives in the market for a home to these posts. They explain where to find reliable, objective information about flooding and flood risk.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/16/2022
1601 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Townsend Reserve, Splendora Crossing Drainage Analyses Omit Mention of New Flood Maps
A week ago, I posted about two large parcels of land being cleared south and west of Splendora High School on FM2090 in Montgomery County. At the time, I thought they might be part of the same development. Since then, I have learned that two different companies own the parcels: Townsend Reserve Ltd. and Forestar USA. However, both used the same companies – Elevation Land Solutions and WGA – for engineering.
This post will focus primarily on Townsend Reserve. A previous post discussed Forestar’s property, Splendora Crossing.
WGA developed the drainage impact analyses for both developments using 2014 flood maps (see Townsend’s below). New maps are currently in development, but neither analysis mentions that. In fairness, WGA did attempt to calculate new flood elevations using its own measurements. But illustrations showing the old floodplain outlines, without mention of coming changes, may mislead potential buyers.
Elevation Land Solutions developed the construction plans for Townsend. It disclosed flood risk more fully.
It’s unclear at this time whether Montgomery County itself will attempt to update flood maps based on data acquired since Harvey. That could help buyers, but hurt builders.
Townsend Owned by Camcorp Management
I found little information about Townsend Reserve online except a certificate of formation on the Texas Secretary of State website.
It shows that Townsend Reserve, Ltd. was formed in September 2020 by general partner, Camcorp Management Inc. Both show addresses at 10410 Windermere Lakes Blvd., Houston, TX 77065. Camcorp was formed in 1993 and is associated with several developments in the region, including Brooklyn Trails in Porter. Executives of Camcorp Management are also officers in several homebuilding companies.
High-Density Development
Like Brooklyn Trails, construction documents show that Townsend Reserve will be a high-density development.
Photos of Land Clearing To Date
I took the two photos below on 1/6/2022. They show the extent of current clearing and drainage mitigation.
Drainage Analysis Claims “No Adverse Impact”
The drainage impact analysis for Townsend Reserve concludes that the proposed project and associated drainage features will result in “no adverse impact” to existing flood hazard conditions along Gully Branch for storm events up to and including the 100-year event. “No adverse impact” is the gold standard. Engineers must certify it before Montgomery County will approve their plans.
Engineers do this by showing that the estimated runoff after development is no greater than the runoff before development. Detention ponds and channels supposedly hold back the increased peaks due to faster runoff...if all their assumptions and calculations are correct.
The 115.7-acre initial phase of Townsend Reserve’s development include a bypass channel and stormwater detention basin located along the south side of Gully Branch. You can clearly see both in the photos above.
For both Phase 1 and ultimate development, portions of the site will be elevated using fill from excavation of the bypass channel and detention basins. Engineers call this practice “cut and fill.” They do not bring fill into the flood plain. They just move the dirt around. So there’s no reduction of floodplain capacity.
Portions of this fill will be located within the 1% annual chance floodplain based on the 2014 map. WGA’s Drainage Impact Analysis claims, “The proposed project results in lower flood profiles throughout the project reach, and an overall reduction in floodplain storage volume. However, the proposed drainage features provide a more efficient use of the available floodplain storage volume, resulting in no increase in peak flows downstream.”
Analysis Based on Atlas-14 Rainfall, but Old Flood Maps
New post-Harvey flood maps due to be released within months will reportedly show the 100-year floodplain expanding into the 500-year floodplain in most places. That could dramatically alter some of the assumptions above. However, I can find no references to new maps in either WGA analysis for Splendora Crossing or Townsend Reserve.
Montgomery County Atlas-14 requirements are slightly lower than those in the Lake Houston Area because of slightly less rainfall. Therefore, the proposed drainage features for Townsend will result in slightly less detention capacity.
To see Townsend Reserve’s entire entire drainage impact analysis, click here.
In fairness to developers, they can’t put their plans on hold indefinitely while new flood maps are drawn and approved. However, in fairness to buyers, you would think the engineering documents would at least disclose the potential of new maps. Likewise, what are man-made and natural factors that increase flood risk, as Elevation Land Solutions pointed out above?
The standards for disclosure in engineering seem lower than the standards for many other industries. I’ve read fuller disclosures on an aspirin bottle.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/15/2022
1600 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.