City of Houston Re-evaluating Benefit-Cost Ratio on Lake Houston Gates Project Alternatives

According to minutes of the Coastal Water Authority (CWA) February 9 board meeting posted in March, work on the project to add more gates to Lake Houston was paused in January while the City of Houston updated the project’s benefit-cost ratio.

gates for Lake Houston and Conroe
Lake Houston and Lake Conroe gates side by side. Lake Conroe’s gates (right) can release water 15 times faster.

CWA Board Minutes Give High-Level Overview of Concerns, Status

Screen capture from CWA Feb. 9, 2022, minutes approved and posted in March.

Earlier, in December, the board learned that the project team was trying to get the benefit/cost ratio above 1.0, so benefits exceed costs.

Screen capture from CWA January 12, 2022, board minutes.

At that time, the CWA hoped to receive the updated BCR later in January. But it still hadn’t happened by the February board meeting.

Martin Says “September-ish” for BCR Report

City of Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin said he hopes to have the BRC report in a “September-ish” time frame. I asked him whether the Community Impact report was accurate when it said the project had been scaled back to 500 feet of crest gates as opposed to the original 1500 feet. He said “no,” and that the engineers were looking at multiple options. He also said “1.0 is incorrect as well,” but did not elaborate.

That leaves a lot of questions regarding this project.

History of Project

After Harvey, the Lake Houston Area Task Force identified adding additional gates to Lake Houston as one of three primary strategies to reduce flood risk in the Lake Houston Area. The idea: to equalize the discharge rates of the flood gates on Lake Houston and Lake Conroe. Conroe’s is 15X greater. That makes it difficult lower both lakes quickly in advance of approaching storms.

As a temporary strategy, the City and SJRA agreed on a temporary, seasonal lake lowering strategy to create more capacity in Lake Conroe until more gates could be added to Lake Houston. But the strategy met with significant pushback from Lake Conroe residents and lawmakers. The Lake Conroe Association even took the SJRA to court to stop it.

At various times, City representatives have discussed 10 and 6 additional tainter gates, plus 1500-, 1200-, and 1000-feet of crest gates. Engineers and City officials have repeatedly emphasized the need to balance costs, downstream impacts, and flood risk reduction.

Back in October 2020, the engineers calculated that the upstream influence of the dam ended at approximately Lake Houston Parkway. But they never explained why. It would seem that if the influence extended upstream to US59 when the lake is at its normal level, that the influence should extend at least that far in a flood. However…

BCR Not Based on Harvey Damage

Much of the damage to the Humble/Kingwood Area during Harvey happened upstream of the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge. It included:

  • $60 Million to Kingwood College
  • $70 million to Kingwood High School
  • $50 million to Kingwood County Club
  • 283 homes in Barrington
  • 218 homes in Kingwood Lakes
  • 97 apartments in Kingwood Lakes
  • 110 homes in Kings Forest
  • 100% of businesses in Kingwood Town Center
  • 225 homes in Kingwood Greens
  • 30 homes in Deer Cove
  • 3 Homes in Deer Ridge Estates
  • 32 homes in Trailwood Village
  • An unknown number of homes in Forest Cove
  • 78 townhomes in Forest Cove
  • All of the Big Box stores along 59
  • Homes and business north of Deerbrook mall
  • 40% of all businesses in the Lake Houston Chamber
  • Humble ISD admin building
  • Destruction of US59 southbound lanes
  • Union Pacific Railroad Bridge

However, Black & Veatch does not base its benefit-cost ratio calculations on another Harvey. They’re basing it on 25- and 100-year storms. Almost all homes, businesses and infrastructure near the lake are already above those levels – at least based on pre-Atlas 14 standards. That may explain the difficulty and delays with benefit/cost ratio calculations and the multitude of scenarios examined.

Time, Uncertainty: More Factors to Consider in Cost and Risk Reduction

Each flood-risk reduction alternative would reduce lake levels by a different amount during a 100-year storm and therefore require its own BCR.

Other factors to consider: How much time do dam operators really need to lower Lake Houston? And how much uncertainty are they willing to live with?

Given the desire to preserve water, these are crucial considerations. If forecasters can reliably predict a need to lower the lake two days before a storm instead of one, operators may only need half the number of new gates. That could get the cost down to the point where the benefit-cost ratio needs to be.

But don’t forget another element of uncertainty: Atlas 14. FEMA has not yet approved the new flood maps based on the higher rainfall totals. Those could put more people in or closer to the floodplains. Below is the timetable for flood map updates currently posted on the MAAPnext website.

Timetable for flood map updates from MAAPnext.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/4/22 and updated on 4/5/22 with MAAPnext timetable

1679 Days since Hurricane Harvey

All Clear: New Development in Humble Near Floodplain

While driving home from Humble this afternoon along Townsend Blvd. north of FM1960, I passed near a clearing so large and with trees piled so high that my jaw dropped into my lap.

I pulled over into the Aldine ISD school’s parking lot and put up a drone. The piles of downed trees looked about 30 to 40 feet tall. According to HCAD, several residential developers own the property in question. According to the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the property contained wetlands. And according to FEMA, the property sits right on the edge of the 500-year floodplain. But FEMA’s map dates to 2014. This sits just west of Costco where Harris County Flood Control District took all those signature shots of Harvey flooding.

Photos Taken 4/3/2022

I took the pictures below this afternoon.

Looking NW from over Sam’s rear parking lot for trucks.
Panning left from first shot. Looking W toward Townsend Blvd. That’s Walmart in the upper left and Aldine ISD’s Jones Middle School in the upper right.
Looking SE from over Townsend toward Humble Deerbrook Mall in upper left and Sam’s in upper right. FM1960 is out of sight beyond Sams. Note wet area above leftmost trees and see Wetlands Map below.
Drone was at about 35 feet for this photo. Note how you cannot see roof of middle school. And some points in log piles appear higher than camera.
Fallen trees on cleared land in Humble.
Trees are almost as tall lying down as they were standing up.

Location Relative to Floodplains

Location of floodplains relative to property circled in red. Background map is from FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer. Note the flood map is based on 2014, pre-Harvey data and is currently being revised. Floodplains may expand.

Because no one lived on these parcels during Harvey, I’m not sure whether they flooded. Perhaps someone who lives nearby can tell me.

Property Had Some Wetlands

The large green spot in the center of the red circle appears to roughly correspond to the wet spot in the third photo from the top. From USFWS National Wetlands Inventory.

Plans for Property Not Yet Clear

The parcels of land in Harris County Appraisal District’s Map don’t exactly match what you see cleared in the photos above. Three residential developers appear to own all parcels in the vicinity. They include Hannover Estates, Townsen Landing LLC, and Headway Estates LTD. I saw no signage on the site indicating a name for a future development.

Altogether the parcels of land total more than 3.1 million square feet or about 71 acres.

I have not yet obtained construction plans or a drainage analysis for this land.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/3/2022

1678 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Interview With Vidal Martinez, Republican Candidate for County Judge in May Runoff

Vidal G. Martinez began his career in 1978 as an Assistant U.S. Attorney in Houston. Since 1981, he has been engaged in private practice as Managing Partner of Martinez Partners LLP. Martinez has been chairman of the State Bar of Texas. And was appointed by former Texas Governor Bill Clements to the University of Houston Board of Regents where he also served as Vice Chairman. During decades of public service, he has helped lead more than three dozen organizations such as the Greater Houston Community Foundation, Greater Houston Convention and Visitors Bureau, Houston Housing Authority, Houston Port Authority, Houston Proud, Salvation Army, Texas Children’s Hospital, and Methodist Hospital (where he has been a director for 30 years).

Vidal Martinez, Republican candidate for Harris County Judge in May runoff election.

Rehak: Thank you for your great history of public service. Today, I’d like to talk to you about flooding: specifically, partner funding; what our neighbors are doing upstream; growth; and your priorities for flood control. Let’s start with partner funding. How do we get more?

Leveraging Relationships to Accelerate Partner Funding

Martinez: When I was a port commissioner, we always had to chase about $600 to $700 million every five years for the widening and deepening of the port. So, we worked closely with our congressional delegation to put pressure on the Administration. We were in direct contact. We had the whole business community, the Greater Houston Partnership, and leaders, all touching base on their areas of influence and pushing things forward. That was a formula that worked, and it didn’t matter which party was in power. My years on the Port Commission had Clinton and George W. Bush in the Oval Office. You go to different leaders that influence that administration but the principle is the same.

That’s the way we did it before. And that’s the way I would approach partner funding.

This is something our community deserves right now. I’m not willing to wait till January. We need to start putting pressure on right now.

Rehak: You’re aware of this flood resilience trust Commissioners Court created using money diverted from the toll road authority and other parts of the county budget to start projects where we have not yet confirmed partner funding. Do you think that’s a wise thing? To decouple partner funding from the starts of projects? Or should we wait until we get a definitive answer on the partner funding?

Martinez: We should wait until we get a definitive answer. You can do more projects that way.

Working More Effectively With Neighboring Counties

Rehak: Let’s move on to upstream neighbors. On the outskirts of Harris county, we see a push by neighboring counties to attract development by lowering flood regulations or not enforcing them. They say, “It’s going to be cheaper here for you. Your profit margins will be better.” How can we work with those counties so they don’t make things worse as we spend money to make them better?

Martinez: It’s best to get the federal government involved. Ergo, you go to congressional representatives who cover those areas, like Dan Crenshaw and Morgan Luttrell. Luttrell is running for Kevin Brady’s seat now that Brady is retiring. I’m friends with both.

You start out by going back to the wallet. The people who affect that wallet the most are your congressional representatives. Nobody is a stand-alone when it comes to funding. They need that federal money.

You start with a distinct conversation with these communities that say there are “no rules.” You explain how it affects your water and flooding downstream. And you say, “You can’t do that.” You start at the political level. And then you go back again to funding mechanisms. That usually helps people clearly see what their options are going forward.

Rehak: Is there anything else that can be done in that regard? Would you favor, for instance, the formation of a regional flood control district?

Martinez: Yes, I would. And I pushed for that.

Need for Regional Planning to Sustain Growth

Rehak: Let’s talk about growth now. How can we strike a better balance between development and flooding? I mentioned that Montgomery County has this “beat the peak” methodology that they use to let developers avoid building detention ponds. So, flood peaks build faster and higher. There are lots of technical issues like that.

Martinez: Well, you’re going to have to school me on what you think needs to be done. 

Rehak: People need to deal with their own run off. Three words. “Retain your rain.” If everybody did that, nobody would flood. 

Martinez: Ed Emmett said that all the time. He said, “We can take care of our own water. We can’t take care of everyone else’s water.”

I’m willing to learn, listen and prepare a plan that makes sense for Harris, Montgomery County, Liberty and other counties. We need to talk to the political leaders and stop the war. Let’s figure out a regional plan that works.

Need for More Fairness in Setting Priorities

Rehak: How would you set priorities? You’ve heard of the County’s equity prioritization framework. Some commissioners are now talking about fixing 500-year flooding inside the Beltway before fixing two-year flooding outside the Beltway. They’re using “equity” as an excuse to shift ever greater sums of money from outlying areas.

Martinez: I’m against this phenomenal reversal. There will be a new start in January 2023. A 3-2 difference means we can stop this. We must treat everyone fairly.

Rehak: Any last thoughts?

Martinez: Get ready for January 3rd. Things are going to start to change.

To learn more about Vidal Martinez and his position on other topics, visit his campaign website.

To compare his opponent’s position on flooding topics, see this interview with Alexandra Mealer.

Posted by Bob Rehak based on an interview with Vidal Martinez

1677 Days after Hurricane Harvey