They say Texas in particular has the following chances of a named storm, hurricane or major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the coast this year:
80% for a named storm
54% for a hurricane
25% for a major hurricane.
They based their estimates on a variety of different atmospheric and ocean measurements, which are known to have high statistical relationships with tropical cyclone activity dating back decades. Among the main predictors: sea surface temps and the stage of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Regional Forecast
The probability for at least one major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) making landfall somewhere along the:
Entire continental U.S. coastline – 71% (average for last century is 52%)
East Coast Including Florida Peninsula – 47% (average for last century is 31%)
Gulf Coast from the Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 46% (average for last century is 30%).
The probability of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean this year is 60% (average for last century is 42%).
Atlantic Basin Forecast For Season Compared to Average
Overall, the Colorado State team forecasts 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes somewhere in the Atlantic basin during the 2022 hurricane season.
In the 30 years from 1991 to 2020, the Atlantic Basin averaged 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.
Sea Surface Temperatures Warmer Than Normal in Caribbean and Gulf
One of the main factors influencing estimates is sea surface temperatures.
Variation from average sea surface temperatures yesterday. NOAA data.
The eastern and central tropical Atlantic currently have near average sea surface temperatures. However, the Caribbean and most of the subtropical Atlantic have warmer than normal temps. Warmer temps encourage tropical cyclone formation.
Weak La Niña Conditions Likely To Last Until Summer
Another major factor influencing estimates: the current state of ENSO.
The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by weak La Niña conditions. Researchers believe the tropical Pacific could return to neutral ENSO conditions by summer. But they also believe it highly unlikely that we will see a return to full-blown El Niño conditions this hurricane season, which extends from June 1, 2022, to November 30, 2022.
El Niño conditions in the Pacific can create wind shear that discourages tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic.
It only takes one storm making landfall near you to make a major change in your life. Now would be a good time to review flood insurance and think about preparations for what will likely be an above-average hurricane season.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/8/22based on information provided by Colorado State University and NOAA
1683 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Screen-Shot-2022-04-08-at-12.54.05-PM.png?fit=1474%2C942&ssl=19421474adminadmin2022-04-08 13:29:352022-04-08 18:46:03Get Ready for Above-Average Hurricane Season
On Tuesday, April 5, 2022, Harris County Commissioners Court reaffirmed the need for minimum drainage standards in the region. The program called “Fix Flooding First,” was started in 2020 by the Harris County Engineering Department. It is designed to help prevent flooding, not just fix it. The idea: to bring all municipalities and other counties that drain into Harris County to adopt minimum drainage standards.
Big Box Stores in Humble opposite Deerbrook Mall along US59 during Harvey. 130,000 cubic feet per second came downstream from Montgomery Countywhich has declined to work with Harris County in adopting minimum flood regulations.
Altogether, the West Fork and East Forks of the San Jacinto with Peach and Caney Creeks, all of which drain through rapidly developing Montgomery County sent 300,000 cubic feet per second into the Lake Houston Area during Harvey.
Five minimum measures, recommended by the Office of the County Engineer and Harris County Flood Control District, include:
1. Use Atlas 14 rainfall rates for sizing storm water conveyance and detention systems. 2. Require a minimum detention rate of 0.65 acre-feet per acre of detention for any new development on tracts one acre or larger. A single-family residential structure and accessory building proposed on an existing lot is exempt from providing detention. 3. Prohibit the use of hydrograph timing as a substitute for detention on any project, unless it directly outfalls into Galveston Bay. 4. Require “no net fill” in the current mapped 500-year floodplain, except in areas identified as coastal zones only. 5. Require the minimum Finished Flood Elevation of new habitable structures be established at or waterproofed to the 500-year flood elevation as shown on the effective Flood Insurance Study.
Harris County Has Little Leverage
Harris County doesn’t have much leverage in this request. It can’t force neighbors to do anything. Compliance more or less depends on good will and a recognition that flooding in Houston and Harris County can affect the whole region negatively. Working together ultimately benefits everyone.
However, Harris County does have two small carrots. The County hired a consultant to review existing flood regulations in neighboring jurisdictions and make recommendations to bring them up to minimum standards. The county also can approve (or reject) partnership projects with those neighbors.
16 municipalities (including Houston, Humble) and Waller County had successfully upgraded their regulations.
14 municipalities and Fort Bend County had completed the analysis of the regulations but not fully upgraded them yet.
8 (four municipalities and four counties) did not respond to the offer of the analysis, refused it, or refused to participate.
As of last Tuesday, those results had not changed since January when I last reported on this program. The same municipalities and counties were in each category. Liberty and Montgomery Counties both fall into the last category (did not respond or refused).
Compliance list from January has not changed as of April 5, 2022.
Establish Precedent for Regional Cooperation Now
Harris County can spend billions on flood mitigation, but if upstream communities keep sending more water downstream, we may never see improvement.
Ironically, all the upstream communities will be downstream from other developing communities in the future and may be in the same position that Harris is in today. It would be good to establish precedent for regional cooperation now that they could use themselves in the future.
Studies show that for every dollar spent on flood prevention, they can save five dollars on flood mitigation. That’s money that could go into improving the quality of services and infrastructure in communities….without forcing people through the trauma of flooding!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/7/22
1682 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/HumbleFlooding.jpg?fit=1500%2C839&ssl=18391500adminadmin2022-04-07 18:26:042024-03-18 17:55:40Harris County Commissioners Reaffirm Need for Minimum Drainage Standards in Region
If you managed to watch Harris County Commissioners Court yesterday, near the end you saw a lively and somewhat confusing discussion of flood mitigation funding. See the video at approximately 6:38:10. Agenda Item 249 was a request by Adrian Garcia to discuss disbursement of the $750 million in Community Development Block Grant Mitigation funds allocated to Harris County by the Texas General Land Office (GLO) and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
During the debate, commissioners also discussed approximately $830 million currently sitting in a Flood Resilience Trust that they created last July to compensate for an expected shortfall in flood-bond partner funding.
In the end, Commissioners made no decisions. But it became clear that Commissioners Ellis and Garcia leaned toward spending it in low-to-moderate income neighborhoods, cleaning out roadside ditches, and sharing money with the City of Houston.
Still No Plan for How to Spend $750 Million
HUD and GLO made the award on March 18, contingent on approval of what HUD calls a Method of Distribution (MOD). Basically, that’s a plan for how and where the money would be spent.
Commissioner Ramsey noted that the pursuit of the money was bi-partisan and that he hoped the distribution would be bi-partisan as well.
Commissioner Garcia said he was immensely frustrated because a) he just didn’t know when the $750 million was going to arrive, and b) what strings came with the money.
He then referenced the Flood Resilience Trust created by commissioners last year from toll road and other county funds. “If we’re going to be getting $750 million, then I think those other dollars (approximated $830 million in the Trust) can be put somewhere else for practical use,” said Garcia. He also noted that another hurricane season was fast approaching.
He then asked Dr. Tina Petersen, the new head of the Flood Control District, whether she had a chance to study this and come up with any recommendations. Petersen who has been in her job about a month said, “We’re working on that.” She reiterated that no project has been delayed due to a lack of partnership funding and that she was working hard to ensure none would be.
Garcia, Ellis Argue for More Money in LMI Neighborhoods
Garcia then claimed, without citing a source, that 70% of the people who flooded in an unspecified flood (but presumably Harvey) “are still without a given project.” He also said that $830 million had accumulated in the Flood Resilience Trust to date.
Commissioner Ellis claimed the County and City of Houston should each have gotten $1 billion and that he would continue to fight for the County’s other $250 million, as well as a billion for the City.
Ellis then tried to add up the amount of committed funding in the flood bond to date but forgot to add approximately $1.5 billion in partner funds already committed. Oops! With the $750 million and the money already in the flood resilience trust, the flood bond should be more than fully funded by now.
As of the start of this year, HCFCD had $1.57 billion in committed partnership funding and $833 million in the flood resilience trust, leaving a gap of $100 million. The $750 million HUD allocation in March should have created a $650 million surplus.But nobody talked about that.
Ellis assumed the $750 million would be spent in Greens, Halls, and Hunting Bayou watersheds. All qualify as low-to-moderate income areas. But if you look at the latest flood-bond project list spreadsheet, Harris County Flood Control District needed $69 million in partner funding for Greens, $269 million for Halls, and $65 million for Hunting. So partner-funding needs for the three watersheds total about $400 million. That leaves about $350 million out of the $750. Nobody, however, even mentioned that in the discussion.
County Administrator Says “Not So Fast”
The County administrator David Berry then pointed out that we don’t have the $750 million yet. “It was not a direct allocation. The county must prepare the method of distribution (MOD) and a citizen participation plan first,” then get them approved by HUD and the GLO.
Then Berry dropped a bomb. He said, HCFCD was proposing projects, but not preparing the documents about how the money would be spent. That tells me the distribution will be based on political, not technical considerations.
Ellis Uses Threat of Title 6 To Support LMI Funding
Ellis concluded the discussion by saying that HUD used a Title 6 complaint as a lever against the GLO, “and if we’re not sensitive to [LMI, Social Vulnerability], there will be a Title 6 Complaint against us.”
Title VI, 42 U.S.C. § 2000d et seq., was enacted as part of the landmark Civil Rights Act of 1964. It prohibits discrimination on the basis of race, color, and national origin in programs and activities receiving federal financial assistance.
Berry didn’t see the LMI focus as a problem, though. He concluded by saying, “The goals of this court in terms of protecting the most people at the highest risk of flooding, and who are the most vulnerable from recovery, all of that seems straight up the alley of the way we should be distributing this money.”
Ellis Wants More But…
Ellis said that he still wanted to fight for more funding. He felt the City of Houston and the County each deserved $1 billion. And he wanted to fight for another $250 million. He volunteered to fight on the City’s behalf, too. No one told him that all the flood mitigation money had already been committed.
Ellis claimed the City got $0, but HUD and the GLO made a direct allocation to the City of $61,884,000. And the Houston Galveston Area Council (H-GAC) received $488 million.
According to Brittany Eck, a spokesperson for the GLO, “Funding for three competitions, Harris County’s allocation, and the Regional Mitigation Program all totaled more than $3 billion. Entities within H-GAC were either awarded or allocated a little over 56% of that. Congress has not indicated additional funding may be coming, though it could appropriate additional funds at any time. But that is not likely.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/6/2022
1681 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Screen-Shot-2022-03-18-at-8.14.41-PM.png?fit=2366%2C1366&ssl=113662366adminadmin2022-04-06 21:06:002022-04-06 22:28:50Harris County Commissioners Court Discusses What to Do with HUD, Flood Resilience Trust Money
Get Ready for Above-Average Hurricane Season
Researchers at Colorado State University indicate that we should get ready for an above average hurricane season in 2022.
They say Texas in particular has the following chances of a named storm, hurricane or major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the coast this year:
They based their estimates on a variety of different atmospheric and ocean measurements, which are known to have high statistical relationships with tropical cyclone activity dating back decades. Among the main predictors: sea surface temps and the stage of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Regional Forecast
The probability for at least one major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) making landfall somewhere along the:
The probability of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean this year is 60% (average for last century is 42%).
Atlantic Basin Forecast For Season Compared to Average
Overall, the Colorado State team forecasts 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes somewhere in the Atlantic basin during the 2022 hurricane season.
In the 30 years from 1991 to 2020, the Atlantic Basin averaged 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.
Sea Surface Temperatures Warmer Than Normal in Caribbean and Gulf
One of the main factors influencing estimates is sea surface temperatures.
The eastern and central tropical Atlantic currently have near average sea surface temperatures. However, the Caribbean and most of the subtropical Atlantic have warmer than normal temps. Warmer temps encourage tropical cyclone formation.
Weak La Niña Conditions Likely To Last Until Summer
Another major factor influencing estimates: the current state of ENSO.
The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by weak La Niña conditions. Researchers believe the tropical Pacific could return to neutral ENSO conditions by summer. But they also believe it highly unlikely that we will see a return to full-blown El Niño conditions this hurricane season, which extends from June 1, 2022, to November 30, 2022.
El Niño conditions in the Pacific can create wind shear that discourages tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic.
Conversely, La Niña conditions reduce wind shear which encourage tropical formation in the Atlantic. The record breaking 2020 hurricane season which saw 30 named storms coincided with the onset of La Niña conditions. This story by NOAA describes the relationship between La Niña, El Niño, and the hurricane season. Cooler conditions in the central Pacific during a La Niña push the jet stream north which allows more hurricanes to form in the Atlantic. The following two NOAA diagrams describe the influences.
It only takes one storm making landfall near you to make a major change in your life. Now would be a good time to review flood insurance and think about preparations for what will likely be an above-average hurricane season.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/8/22 based on information provided by Colorado State University and NOAA
1683 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Harris County Commissioners Reaffirm Need for Minimum Drainage Standards in Region
On Tuesday, April 5, 2022, Harris County Commissioners Court reaffirmed the need for minimum drainage standards in the region. The program called “Fix Flooding First,” was started in 2020 by the Harris County Engineering Department. It is designed to help prevent flooding, not just fix it. The idea: to bring all municipalities and other counties that drain into Harris County to adopt minimum drainage standards.
Altogether, the West Fork and East Forks of the San Jacinto with Peach and Caney Creeks, all of which drain through rapidly developing Montgomery County sent 300,000 cubic feet per second into the Lake Houston Area during Harvey.
To see how many square miles are being drained upstream from you, consult this map. Almost half of the watersheds in Harris County originate outside the county.
Seeking Agreement on Five Measures
Five minimum measures, recommended by the Office of the County Engineer and Harris County Flood Control District, include:
1. Use Atlas 14 rainfall rates for sizing storm water conveyance and detention systems.
2. Require a minimum detention rate of 0.65 acre-feet per acre of detention for any new development on tracts one acre or larger. A single-family residential structure and accessory building proposed on an existing lot is exempt from providing detention.
3. Prohibit the use of hydrograph timing as a substitute for detention on any project, unless it directly outfalls into Galveston Bay.
4. Require “no net fill” in the current mapped 500-year floodplain, except in areas identified as coastal zones only.
5. Require the minimum Finished Flood Elevation of new habitable structures be established at or waterproofed to the 500-year flood elevation as shown on the effective Flood Insurance Study.
Harris County Has Little Leverage
Harris County doesn’t have much leverage in this request. It can’t force neighbors to do anything. Compliance more or less depends on good will and a recognition that flooding in Houston and Harris County can affect the whole region negatively. Working together ultimately benefits everyone.
However, Harris County does have two small carrots. The County hired a consultant to review existing flood regulations in neighboring jurisdictions and make recommendations to bring them up to minimum standards. The county also can approve (or reject) partnership projects with those neighbors.
Mixed Results; No Change Since January
As of the start of this year, the program had met with mixed success.
As of last Tuesday, those results had not changed since January when I last reported on this program. The same municipalities and counties were in each category. Liberty and Montgomery Counties both fall into the last category (did not respond or refused).
Establish Precedent for Regional Cooperation Now
Harris County can spend billions on flood mitigation, but if upstream communities keep sending more water downstream, we may never see improvement.
Ironically, all the upstream communities will be downstream from other developing communities in the future and may be in the same position that Harris is in today. It would be good to establish precedent for regional cooperation now that they could use themselves in the future.
Studies show that for every dollar spent on flood prevention, they can save five dollars on flood mitigation. That’s money that could go into improving the quality of services and infrastructure in communities….without forcing people through the trauma of flooding!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/7/22
1682 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Harris County Commissioners Court Discusses What to Do with HUD, Flood Resilience Trust Money
If you managed to watch Harris County Commissioners Court yesterday, near the end you saw a lively and somewhat confusing discussion of flood mitigation funding. See the video at approximately 6:38:10. Agenda Item 249 was a request by Adrian Garcia to discuss disbursement of the $750 million in Community Development Block Grant Mitigation funds allocated to Harris County by the Texas General Land Office (GLO) and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
During the debate, commissioners also discussed approximately $830 million currently sitting in a Flood Resilience Trust that they created last July to compensate for an expected shortfall in flood-bond partner funding.
In the end, Commissioners made no decisions. But it became clear that Commissioners Ellis and Garcia leaned toward spending it in low-to-moderate income neighborhoods, cleaning out roadside ditches, and sharing money with the City of Houston.
Still No Plan for How to Spend $750 Million
HUD and GLO made the award on March 18, contingent on approval of what HUD calls a Method of Distribution (MOD). Basically, that’s a plan for how and where the money would be spent.
Commissioner Garcia said he was immensely frustrated because a) he just didn’t know when the $750 million was going to arrive, and b) what strings came with the money.
He then referenced the Flood Resilience Trust created by commissioners last year from toll road and other county funds. “If we’re going to be getting $750 million, then I think those other dollars (approximated $830 million in the Trust) can be put somewhere else for practical use,” said Garcia. He also noted that another hurricane season was fast approaching.
He then asked Dr. Tina Petersen, the new head of the Flood Control District, whether she had a chance to study this and come up with any recommendations. Petersen who has been in her job about a month said, “We’re working on that.” She reiterated that no project has been delayed due to a lack of partnership funding and that she was working hard to ensure none would be.
Garcia, Ellis Argue for More Money in LMI Neighborhoods
Garcia then claimed, without citing a source, that 70% of the people who flooded in an unspecified flood (but presumably Harvey) “are still without a given project.” He also said that $830 million had accumulated in the Flood Resilience Trust to date.
Commissioner Ellis claimed the County and City of Houston should each have gotten $1 billion and that he would continue to fight for the County’s other $250 million, as well as a billion for the City.
Ellis then tried to add up the amount of committed funding in the flood bond to date but forgot to add approximately $1.5 billion in partner funds already committed. Oops! With the $750 million and the money already in the flood resilience trust, the flood bond should be more than fully funded by now.
Ellis assumed the $750 million would be spent in Greens, Halls, and Hunting Bayou watersheds. All qualify as low-to-moderate income areas. But if you look at the latest flood-bond project list spreadsheet, Harris County Flood Control District needed $69 million in partner funding for Greens, $269 million for Halls, and $65 million for Hunting. So partner-funding needs for the three watersheds total about $400 million. That leaves about $350 million out of the $750. Nobody, however, even mentioned that in the discussion.
County Administrator Says “Not So Fast”
The County administrator David Berry then pointed out that we don’t have the $750 million yet. “It was not a direct allocation. The county must prepare the method of distribution (MOD) and a citizen participation plan first,” then get them approved by HUD and the GLO.
Then Berry dropped a bomb. He said, HCFCD was proposing projects, but not preparing the documents about how the money would be spent. That tells me the distribution will be based on political, not technical considerations.
Ellis Uses Threat of Title 6 To Support LMI Funding
Ellis concluded the discussion by saying that HUD used a Title 6 complaint as a lever against the GLO, “and if we’re not sensitive to [LMI, Social Vulnerability], there will be a Title 6 Complaint against us.”
Title VI, 42 U.S.C. § 2000d et seq., was enacted as part of the landmark Civil Rights Act of 1964. It prohibits discrimination on the basis of race, color, and national origin in programs and activities receiving federal financial assistance.
According to a summary of the Texas CDBG-MIT Action Plan Amendment approved by HUD, HUD requires that at least 50% of total funds must be used for activities benefiting low and moderate income (LMI) persons. However, the summary also states that “all programs will have an LMI priority.”
Click here to see the complete text of the GLO’s action plan amendment approved by HUD on March 18.
Berry didn’t see the LMI focus as a problem, though. He concluded by saying, “The goals of this court in terms of protecting the most people at the highest risk of flooding, and who are the most vulnerable from recovery, all of that seems straight up the alley of the way we should be distributing this money.”
Ellis Wants More But…
Ellis said that he still wanted to fight for more funding. He felt the City of Houston and the County each deserved $1 billion. And he wanted to fight for another $250 million. He volunteered to fight on the City’s behalf, too. No one told him that all the flood mitigation money had already been committed.
Ellis claimed the City got $0, but HUD and the GLO made a direct allocation to the City of $61,884,000. And the Houston Galveston Area Council (H-GAC) received $488 million.
According to Brittany Eck, a spokesperson for the GLO, “Funding for three competitions, Harris County’s allocation, and the Regional Mitigation Program all totaled more than $3 billion. Entities within H-GAC were either awarded or allocated a little over 56% of that. Congress has not indicated additional funding may be coming, though it could appropriate additional funds at any time. But that is not likely.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/6/2022
1681 Days since Hurricane Harvey