The definition of “Waters of the U.S.” (WOTUS) is changing again thanks to a new ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court. It could put half of the nation’s wetlands in peril and that could significantly affect flooding.
The Ping-Pong Match over Wetland Protection
I first started covering the definition of WOTUS in January of this year in a story about Biden’s changes to Trump’s changes to Obama’s changes.
The WOTUS definition defines the areas subject to EPA clean water regulations. At issue: How far up in the branching structure of a river may the government enforce regulations? As far as it’s navigable? One level up from that? Two? Three? Infinitely?
Clarity is a good thing. But the last time I looked up WOTUS, the definition stretched for more than 100-pages. It has changed numerous times since 2015. And different government agencies follow different definitions. Complexity, change, ambiguity and conflict now give bureaucrats and developers almost unlimited power to interpret definitions as they see fit.
Local Example of Damage
For instance, when the developers of Woodridge Village clearcut their property, filled in wetlands and sent tons of sludge down Taylor Gully into Lake Houston, the question became “Were they acting legally?” The developer found no wetlands on their property even though wetlands were clearly indicated on the USGS National Wetlands Inventory.
Complaints piled into the EPA and Army Corps of Engineers. The Corps found that, even though the property contained wetlands, the wetlands lay outside the jurisdiction of the Corps to regulate.
Resident examines massive erosion on Woodridge Village flowing down Taylor Gully into Lake Houstonin 2019.
Bureaucratic Overreach?
The Trump-era definition, finalized in 2020, was long sought by developers who complained about federal overreach. They said the WOTUS definition stretched into gullies, creeks and wetlands on private property.
But Biden reversed the Trump definition and now the US Supreme Court has reversed the Biden definition. That makes the fourth time the rules have been reversed since 2015. Worse, the EPA and Corps use overlapping, but different rules.
And as far as I can tell, the limit of regulation does not vary with the magnitude of violation, a serious flaw in my opinion.
NYT Article Puts Most Recent Changes in Perspective
A New York Times essay by Jim Murphy of the National Wildlife Federation summarized the most recent changes. Says Murphy, “The Environmental Protection Agency has long interpreted the Clean Water Act as protecting most of the nation’s wetlands from pollution. But now the court has significantly limited the reach of the law…”
The Court’s new definition hinges on the wetlands having “a continuous surface connection” to bodies of water such as streams, rivers, lakes and oceans. At least half of the nation’s wetlands could lose protection under this ruling, which provides an even narrower definition of “protected waters” than the Trump administration had sought, according to Murphy.
Congress has long failed to clarify language in the Clean Water Act that caused confusion among judges and put the law in the Supreme Court’s cross hairs.
Wetlands are nature’s sponges. They act as natural detention basins that hold back stormwaters and that has a direct impact on flooding.
Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who filed a concurring opinion in the judgment, acknowledged its impact, writing that it would have “significant repercussions for water quality and flood control throughout the United States.”
How Revised Definition Could Affect Local Development
Need an example. Look no further than the Colony Ridge development in Liberty County, where the developer is filling in and paving over wetlands…some immediately adjacent to wetland mitigation banks.
Colony Ridge WetlandsColony Ridge wetlands being drained for development.
Many residents in adjoining communities such as Plum Grove and Huffman have complained bitterly about worsening flooding in their areas, which they attribute to such development practices.
I hope Congress can finally find a workable definition of WOTUS that protects public safety while allowing responsible development. The constantly changing definitions of WOTUS help no one.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/31/23
2101 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Wetlands-Mapper-Highlighted.jpg?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=15651200adminadmin2023-05-31 11:48:022023-05-31 12:01:02How a Controversial, Little Understood Definition Affects Flooding
Hurricane season starts this week. Offsetting factors, some of which would call for an above-normal hurricane season and others of which would call for a below-normal season, led forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center to split the difference in their seasonal outlook.
They are giving almost equal probabilities to average, above-average, and below-average seasons. But average gets a slight edge. See below.
NOAA predicts 12 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
2023 Hurricane Season Names
Below is a list of storm names for this hurricane season.
Source: National Hurricane Center
Competing Factors Make Forecast Difficult
Competing factors both suppress and encourage storm formation.
The last two factors have produced more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, according to NOAA.
New Policies, Models, Technologies Will Improve Future Forecasts
To improve forecasts, NOAA is adopting new policies, forecasting models and technologies this year. Improvements include:
In late June, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will become operational. HAFS will become NOAA’s primary hurricane model. Compared to previous models, it improves track forecasts 10-15%.
A Probabilistic Storm Surge model upgrade gives forecasters the ability to run the model for two storms simultaneously.
The National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook graphics will expand the forecast range from five to seven days.
Over the last 10 years, flooding from tropical rainfall was the single deadliest hazard. To give communities more time to prepare, the Weather Prediction Center is also extending the Excessive Rainfall Outlook two days. It will now provide forecasts up to five days in advance. The outlook shows general areas at risk for flash flooding due to excessive rainfall.
The National Weather Service will unveil a new generation of forecast flood inundation mapping for portions of Texas in September 2023. These maps will show the extent of flooding at the street level.
Upgrades to the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoy array will provide new capabilities, updated instruments, more strategic placement of buoys, and more detailed observations.
NOAA emphasizes that its hurricane forecast is not a landfall forecast. Many storms die at sea and never reach land.
Peak of Season Still Three Months Away, But…
The Climate Prediction Center will update the 2023 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
And minutes after I first posted this story, the National Hurricane Center issued this 7-day outlook. It shows a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico trying to get organized. But the chances of tropical formation are slim: 10% in the next two days and 20% in the next seven.
So remain alert and prepared.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/2023
2100 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2023-Pie-052422-NOAA.jpg?fit=856%2C529&ssl=1529856adminadmin2023-05-30 12:00:152023-05-30 14:26:59NHC Predicts Near Normal Hurricane Season
It excels at generating high-level summaries of issues. And it allows you to drill down somewhat to explore different aspects of topics. But as you get more specific, it can also give you erroneous information. Here’s an example.
The Texas General Land Office has been in the headlines ever since Harvey. So I asked ChatGPT…
Q: What role does the Texas General Land Office play in reducing flooding?
ChatGPT Answered: “The Texas General Land Office (GLO) plays a crucial role in reducing flooding and managing flood-related issues in the state of Texas. The GLO has several responsibilities and initiatives aimed at mitigating flood risks and enhancing resilience. Here are some key roles and activities of the Texas General Land Office in flood reduction:
Disaster Recovery and Mitigation: The GLO oversees disaster recovery efforts and manages federal funds allocated for disaster mitigation in Texas, including those related to flooding. The GLO administers programs and provides financial assistance to local communities for flood mitigation projects, infrastructure improvements, and floodplain management initiatives.
Floodplain Management: The GLO supports and promotes effective floodplain management practices in Texas. It works with local governments, communities, and stakeholders to develop and implement floodplain regulations, zoning ordinances, and floodplain mapping to guide development and reduce flood risks.
Texas Coastal Resiliency Master Plan: The GLO is involved in developing and implementing the Texas Coastal Resiliency Master Plan, which focuses on addressing flood risks, coastal erosion, and storm surge impacts along the Texas coast. The plan includes strategies for enhancing flood protection, preserving coastal ecosystems, and promoting sustainable development practices.
Coastal Barrier System: The GLO is responsible for managing the Texas Coastal Barrier System, which includes the construction and maintenance of levees, floodgates, and other infrastructure to protect coastal communities from storm surge and flooding. This system aims to reduce the vulnerability of populated areas along the Texas coast to hurricane-related flooding.
Grant Programs and Funding: The GLO administers various grant programs to provide funding assistance for flood-related projects. This includes programs such as the Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF), Community Development Block Grants (CDBG), and Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) programs, which offer financial support for flood mitigation, infrastructure improvements, and post-disaster recovery.
Outreach and Education: The GLO conducts outreach and educational initiatives to raise awareness about flood risks, floodplain management, and resilience strategies. It provides resources, guidance, and training to local communities, property owners, and stakeholders to promote flood awareness and preparedness.
Coordination with Stakeholders: The GLO collaborates with federal, state, and local agencies, as well as community organizations, non-profits, and stakeholders involved in flood management and mitigation. This includes coordinating efforts, sharing information, and facilitating partnerships to enhance flood reduction strategies and improve coordination during flood events.
The Texas General Land Office’s efforts in flood reduction are aimed at safeguarding communities, protecting natural resources, and enhancing the state’s resilience to flooding and other related hazards. By supporting mitigation projects, implementing floodplain management strategies, and facilitating recovery and funding assistance, the GLO plays a critical role in reducing flood risks and promoting sustainable development in Texas.
End of ChatGPT Response
GLO Asked to Evaluate ChatGPT Response
That sounded a bit off to me. So I asked a GLO employee in public affairs to:
Give the response a letter grade from A-F
Evaluate the accuracy of the response
Identify any critical errors or omissions.
GLO Response Reveals Some Misses
My GLO source responded almost immediately. I’ll start with her conclusion. She said, “Luckily, I don’t fear losing my job to AI yet after reading this. 😊”
Then she explained some of the problems:
“I would say FEMA does floodplain management strategies more than the GLO,” she said. “However, FEMA data about floodplains is used by HUD to develop rules for grants.” Note that the GLO is the primary vehicle for distributing HUD funds in Texas.
“As for the Coastal Barrier System,” she continued, “that is tricky. We are the state sponsor, but there are many partners, so I am not sure if the word “managing” is correct or not.”
“This one is the most incorrect:
Grant Programs and Funding: The GLO administers various grant programs to provide funding assistance for flood-related projects. This includes programs such as the Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF), Community Development Block Grants (CDBG), and Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) programs, which offer financial support for flood mitigation, infrastructure improvements, and post-disaster recovery.
“Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) and Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) are Texas Water Development Board programs, not GLO’s. GLO does CDBG-DR and CDBG-MIT grants, which are used to address unmet housing needs (DR) and flood mitigation projects (MIT), but we do not do CDBG funds, which are annual entitlement funds from HUD and very different.
“The biggest glaring error is there is no mention of housing recovery or helping homeowners. I won’t fail ChatGPT, but it definitely requires editing and oversight.”
ChatGPT Hits Some Walls
In addition to errors like those above, sometimes ChatGPT just plain hits a wall and refuses to provide answers. For instance, it:
Currently contains no information past 2021. That limits its usefulness when seeking information about current events. It also limits usefulness for people in certain professions, such as news reporting.
Refuses to address personal or reputation issues.
Can’t provide answers to specific questions that require professional expertise. For instance, I tried to get ChatGPT to quantify the relative effectiveness of various flood control techniques. It responded that it depended on local conditions and suggested hiring a professional engineer. In fairness, that’s a good answer. But it does acknowledge the limits of the program.
Didn’t acknowledge the existence of ReduceFlooding.com, saying “it could be fictional or newly established” when I asked “What is ReduceFlooding.com?” However, Google ranks ReduceFlooding.com #6 in the world when asked “How do I reduce flooding?” In contrast, the Harris County Flood Control District’s website showed up at #26.
Putting ChatGPT in Perspective
ChatGPT is an impressive tool. But it’s only one tool in the tool box. You wouldn’t use a saw when you needed a hammer. Understand the best uses of ChatGPT, such as providing high-level outlines or introductions to topics, and you won’t be disappointed.
In short, it’s part of the answer, but not the answer. And as they say on every airplane before takeoff, “cross-check and verify all the doors.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/29/23
2099 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Flooded-Sign.jpg?fit=936%2C590&ssl=1590936adminadmin2023-05-29 13:54:452023-05-29 14:47:26ChatGPT Misses on Some Aspects of Flood-Control
How a Controversial, Little Understood Definition Affects Flooding
The definition of “Waters of the U.S.” (WOTUS) is changing again thanks to a new ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court. It could put half of the nation’s wetlands in peril and that could significantly affect flooding.
The Ping-Pong Match over Wetland Protection
I first started covering the definition of WOTUS in January of this year in a story about Biden’s changes to Trump’s changes to Obama’s changes.
The WOTUS definition defines the areas subject to EPA clean water regulations. At issue: How far up in the branching structure of a river may the government enforce regulations? As far as it’s navigable? One level up from that? Two? Three? Infinitely?
Clarity is a good thing. But the last time I looked up WOTUS, the definition stretched for more than 100-pages. It has changed numerous times since 2015. And different government agencies follow different definitions. Complexity, change, ambiguity and conflict now give bureaucrats and developers almost unlimited power to interpret definitions as they see fit.
Local Example of Damage
For instance, when the developers of Woodridge Village clearcut their property, filled in wetlands and sent tons of sludge down Taylor Gully into Lake Houston, the question became “Were they acting legally?” The developer found no wetlands on their property even though wetlands were clearly indicated on the USGS National Wetlands Inventory.
Complaints piled into the EPA and Army Corps of Engineers. The Corps found that, even though the property contained wetlands, the wetlands lay outside the jurisdiction of the Corps to regulate.
Bureaucratic Overreach?
The Trump-era definition, finalized in 2020, was long sought by developers who complained about federal overreach. They said the WOTUS definition stretched into gullies, creeks and wetlands on private property.
But Biden reversed the Trump definition and now the US Supreme Court has reversed the Biden definition. That makes the fourth time the rules have been reversed since 2015. Worse, the EPA and Corps use overlapping, but different rules.
And as far as I can tell, the limit of regulation does not vary with the magnitude of violation, a serious flaw in my opinion.
NYT Article Puts Most Recent Changes in Perspective
A New York Times essay by Jim Murphy of the National Wildlife Federation summarized the most recent changes. Says Murphy, “The Environmental Protection Agency has long interpreted the Clean Water Act as protecting most of the nation’s wetlands from pollution. But now the court has significantly limited the reach of the law…”
The Court’s new definition hinges on the wetlands having “a continuous surface connection” to bodies of water such as streams, rivers, lakes and oceans. At least half of the nation’s wetlands could lose protection under this ruling, which provides an even narrower definition of “protected waters” than the Trump administration had sought, according to Murphy.
Congress has long failed to clarify language in the Clean Water Act that caused confusion among judges and put the law in the Supreme Court’s cross hairs.
Wetlands are nature’s sponges. They act as natural detention basins that hold back stormwaters and that has a direct impact on flooding.
Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who filed a concurring opinion in the judgment, acknowledged its impact, writing that it would have “significant repercussions for water quality and flood control throughout the United States.”
How Revised Definition Could Affect Local Development
Need an example. Look no further than the Colony Ridge development in Liberty County, where the developer is filling in and paving over wetlands…some immediately adjacent to wetland mitigation banks.
Many residents in adjoining communities such as Plum Grove and Huffman have complained bitterly about worsening flooding in their areas, which they attribute to such development practices.
I hope Congress can finally find a workable definition of WOTUS that protects public safety while allowing responsible development. The constantly changing definitions of WOTUS help no one.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/31/23
2101 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
NHC Predicts Near Normal Hurricane Season
Hurricane season starts this week. Offsetting factors, some of which would call for an above-normal hurricane season and others of which would call for a below-normal season, led forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center to split the difference in their seasonal outlook.
They are giving almost equal probabilities to average, above-average, and below-average seasons. But average gets a slight edge. See below.
NOAA predicts 12 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
2023 Hurricane Season Names
Below is a list of storm names for this hurricane season.
Competing Factors Make Forecast Difficult
Competing factors both suppress and encourage storm formation.
After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Niño to develop this summer. It can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.
El Niño’s strong winds from the west produce sheer that can discourage tropical storms approaching from the east.
However, favorable conditions include:
The last two factors have produced more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, according to NOAA.
New Policies, Models, Technologies Will Improve Future Forecasts
To improve forecasts, NOAA is adopting new policies, forecasting models and technologies this year. Improvements include:
NOAA emphasizes that its hurricane forecast is not a landfall forecast. Many storms die at sea and never reach land.
Peak of Season Still Three Months Away, But…
The Climate Prediction Center will update the 2023 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
Historically, the peak of hurricane season hits on September 10. However, storms can develop any time of year. Interestingly, NHC determined that a subtropical storm formed in the Atlantic Basin in Mid-January 2023.
And minutes after I first posted this story, the National Hurricane Center issued this 7-day outlook. It shows a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico trying to get organized. But the chances of tropical formation are slim: 10% in the next two days and 20% in the next seven.
So remain alert and prepared.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/2023
2100 Days since Hurricane Harvey
ChatGPT Misses on Some Aspects of Flood-Control
Third in a Three Part Series on ChatGPT and Flood Control
My first post on ChatGPT and flood control talked about its prodigious strengths in outlining a range of mitigation solutions. My second talked about using ChatGPT to drill down further into the subject matter.
It excels at generating high-level summaries of issues. And it allows you to drill down somewhat to explore different aspects of topics. But as you get more specific, it can also give you erroneous information. Here’s an example.
The Texas General Land Office has been in the headlines ever since Harvey. So I asked ChatGPT…
Q: What role does the Texas General Land Office play in reducing flooding?
ChatGPT Answered: “The Texas General Land Office (GLO) plays a crucial role in reducing flooding and managing flood-related issues in the state of Texas. The GLO has several responsibilities and initiatives aimed at mitigating flood risks and enhancing resilience. Here are some key roles and activities of the Texas General Land Office in flood reduction:
The Texas General Land Office’s efforts in flood reduction are aimed at safeguarding communities, protecting natural resources, and enhancing the state’s resilience to flooding and other related hazards. By supporting mitigation projects, implementing floodplain management strategies, and facilitating recovery and funding assistance, the GLO plays a critical role in reducing flood risks and promoting sustainable development in Texas.
End of ChatGPT Response
GLO Asked to Evaluate ChatGPT Response
That sounded a bit off to me. So I asked a GLO employee in public affairs to:
GLO Response Reveals Some Misses
My GLO source responded almost immediately. I’ll start with her conclusion. She said, “Luckily, I don’t fear losing my job to AI yet after reading this. 😊”
Then she explained some of the problems:
“I would say FEMA does floodplain management strategies more than the GLO,” she said. “However, FEMA data about floodplains is used by HUD to develop rules for grants.” Note that the GLO is the primary vehicle for distributing HUD funds in Texas.
“As for the Coastal Barrier System,” she continued, “that is tricky. We are the state sponsor, but there are many partners, so I am not sure if the word “managing” is correct or not.”
“This one is the most incorrect:
“Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) and Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) are Texas Water Development Board programs, not GLO’s. GLO does CDBG-DR and CDBG-MIT grants, which are used to address unmet housing needs (DR) and flood mitigation projects (MIT), but we do not do CDBG funds, which are annual entitlement funds from HUD and very different.
“The biggest glaring error is there is no mention of housing recovery or helping homeowners. I won’t fail ChatGPT, but it definitely requires editing and oversight.”
ChatGPT Hits Some Walls
In addition to errors like those above, sometimes ChatGPT just plain hits a wall and refuses to provide answers. For instance, it:
Putting ChatGPT in Perspective
ChatGPT is an impressive tool. But it’s only one tool in the tool box. You wouldn’t use a saw when you needed a hammer. Understand the best uses of ChatGPT, such as providing high-level outlines or introductions to topics, and you won’t be disappointed.
In short, it’s part of the answer, but not the answer. And as they say on every airplane before takeoff, “cross-check and verify all the doors.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/29/23
2099 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.