This week, Harris County is releasing to the public a final report on the botched March 2022 primary election – a year after the report’s completion. That’s almost a year after a second botched election last November that has mired the County in lawsuits over election results.
The report recommended a number of changes in election processes. Had the then newly appointed Harris County Elections Administrator Clifford Tatum implemented the recommendations before the November election, many of the problems experienced by voters might have been prevented. But no one has explained why Tatum didn’t.
Most of the problems detailed in March also happened in November.
Fifty pages of election-worker survey data buried at the end of the March election report quantifies the magnitude of the problems that voters experienced.
Quantified the percentages of poll workers who experienced the following types of equipment problems:
Almost one third (31.4%) of workers had problems with the Duos (machines that create both electronic and paper versions of voters’ choices).
One fifth (19.3%) of workers had problems with the Scanners.
One tenth (9.8%) of workers had problems with the ePollBooks.
Question 17 on page 99
Delved into who (among election workers) had the problems and when:
One third (36.5%) of workers had problems with equipment during setup and operation.
The degree of problems did not vary significantly by the amount of election experience that the worker had, suggesting the problems were not caused by inexperience.
The problems virtually doubled on Primary Election Day compared to early voting (24.2% for early voting compared to 46.3% for Election Day).
45.8% of Republican election workers experienced problems compared to 29% of Democrats.
Question 10A on page 66
Measured the rough estimates of election workers as to voters who experienced problems:
6.5% of election workers felt most voters had problems recording votes on new machines.
Another 13.5% felt “less than half” of the voters had problems recording their votes.
So, 20% of election workers saw more than “a few voters” experiencing problems.
Question 9 on page 65
Measured how long it took election workers to get help via phone:
Twice as many Republicans (21.4%) had to wait longer than a half hour on the help line compared to Democrats (11%).
This contributed to long lines during the November election.
Question 7 on page 63
Measured how long it took election workers to pick up supplies:
22.7% of Republicans said they had to wait longer than an hour for their supplies compared to 13.7% of Democrats.
This contributed to many polls opening late in November.
Question 24 on Page 105
Looked at Political Affiliation of poll workers:
Democratic workers outnumbered Republicans by 12.1% (51.5% to 39.4%).
Vague Recommendations Don’t Get to Heart of Issue
The recommendations by the consultant performing the analysis focused mainly on processes and process improvements. Their recommendations on page 108 include:
Refine and prioritize desired objectives and outcomes;
Identify performance measures to meet outcomes;
Inventory the data assets available to measure outcomes;
Identify gaps in available data assets;
Establish clear lines of responsibility among EAO staff for each outcome or category of outcomes; and
Design processes to monitor the progress toward meeting outcomes.
Nowhere in the 114 page report did the consultant use the word “fair,” as in “conduct a fair election” to describe an outcome.
Results of word search in PDF
“B Certified”
The consultant’s report did, however, give us a clue about their company values.
A “B certified” watermark showed up on virtually every page of the ForsMarsh report. I didn’t know what that meant, so I looked it up.
BCorporation.net, a company that B-certifies other companies says, “Certified B Corporations are leaders in the global movement for an inclusive, equitable, and regenerative economy. Unlike other certifications for businesses, B Lab is unique in our ability to measure a company’s entire social and environmental impact.”
In choosing a vendor to audit the election, it would seem that Harris County selected a vendor that was more concerned with social impact than fairness. Their report demonstrates that.
Little Fanfare for Long-Awaited Report
The ForsMarsh Group delivered its report to Harris County on August 31, 2022. It’s now available to the public as the backup to Agenda Item 313 for the August 8, 2023, Commissioners Court meeting. That’s little fanfare for a long-awaited report.
By the way, #313 is a simple transmittal of the report to commissioners. No context or explanation is provided.
Too bad we didn’t have the report in a timely way before the November election last year. So much for transparency!
And little wonder that County Election Administrator Clifford Tatum is playing dodgeball with depositions. At the end of June this year, Tatum failed to appear for a scheduled deposition. And now, attorneys representing Judge Lina Hidalgo filed a motion to quash any further depositions of Tatum.
One Final Qualification and a Question
Harris County has also stonewalled production of records related to the November election. Data in the just-released report finally quantifies issues in the Marchprimary election. However, it does not measureNovemberelection problems directly, i.e., those over which Tatum presided.
Regardless, the Primary data parallels independently compiled evidence of similar problems found on Election Day in November. That raises one final question: Nine months after the November election, why haven’t we seen an official report on it yet?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/7/23
2169 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Screenshot-2023-08-07-at-2.29.51-PM-e1691441835206.png?fit=1100%2C684&ssl=16841100adminadmin2023-08-07 16:00:232023-08-07 19:04:33Smoking Guns Buried in Harris County 2022 Primary Election Report
Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey and Daniel Ramos, Executive Director of Harris County’s Office of Management & Budget,will host a town-hall budget meeting to discuss next year’s budget.
Commissioner Ramsey urges you to attend and voice your opinions on how the county should address wasteful spending, save money, and prioritize next year’s budget.
Why You Should Attend
Precinct 3 maintains nearly 47% of the county’s roadways, but only receives 25% of the general funds, and only received 17% of the 2022 Road and Park Bonds.
Commissioner Ramsey expresses the need for the public to attend in order to understand how tax dollars are truly being spent.
This meeting will let you voice your priorities on how Harris County should prioritize its responsibilities and spending of tax dollars.
Meeting Details
WHEN: Monday, August 14th, 2023, 6 PM
WHERE: George H.W. Bush Community Center
6827 Cypresswood Dr., Spring, TX 77379
Q&A SESSION: Following presentations
Free Shuttle Service
The county will offer free shuttle service from the following Precinct 3 Community Centers. Space is limited. Pre-registration required. Call the community center to save your spot!
Barrett Station Community Center
Departs at 3:45 PM
Call (713) 274-2040 to register
Crosby Community Center
Departs at 4:15 PM
Call (832) 927-7730 to register
May Community Center
Departs at 4:30 PM
Call (713) 274-2434 to register
San Jacinto Community Center
Departs at 4:15 PM
Call (713) 274-2860 to register
Trini Mendenhall Community Center
Departs at 4:30 PM
Call (713) 274-3200 to register
County Responsibilities in Texas
For reference, according to the Texas Association of Counties, responsibilities of Texas county government include:
Providing public safety and justice
Registering voters and holding elections at every level of government
Maintaining Texans’ most important records
Building and maintaining roads, bridges and in some cases, county airports
Providing emergency management, health, and safety services
Collecting property taxes for the county and sometimes for other taxing entities
Issuing vehicle registration and transfers
Harris County also offers libraries, parks, and other programs that add to the quality of life for residents. Many play a vital role in the economic development.
So learn more at the Town Hall. Join other concerned residents and let your voice be heard on how tax dollars should be prioritized and spent. I’ll be there. And I hope to comment about the distribution of flood bond money.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/5/2023
2067 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Commissioner-Tom-Ramsey.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-05 19:54:302023-08-05 20:15:13Mark Your Calendar: Harris County Precinct 3 Budget Meeting
Colony Ridge Land, LLC, developer of the world’s largest trailer park in Liberty County, is buying up Harris County property in the floodplain of the East Fork San Jacinto. Since the property in the Cypress Point subdivision was originally platted, flood maps changed in 2001 and are in the process of changing again. Most of the properties face serious flood risk that the current flood maps may not communicate.
Land Remains Uncleared
Development has not yet started. The land is still heavily wooded…so much so, in fact, that dirt roads developed in the 1980s have become overtaken by trees and undergrowth. They are barely passable according to one person I talked to.
Colony Ridge has acquired at least 19 (but not all) properties within red area.What the partially developed area looked like in 1988. Note unpaved roads nearest river.
Back in the late 1980s, the original developer cleared space for roads and platted the land going down to the East Fork. But today, paved roads stop about a quarter mile short of the river. From the air, those old dirt roads look like a slight indentation in the forest canopy.
Looking NE from over the utility corridor that forms the southern limit of the area. East Fork on right flows toward camera.Looking NE from farther north. Old roadway appears as a crease in the jungle.Still looking NE.Note how pavement on Birchwood Drive stops short of entering area.Reverse angle looking S toward Lake Houston visible as blue streak below horizon in upper left. Lake Houston Park on right.
The Big Question
Why did the original developers stop short of paving roads all the way to the river? The answer likely has something to do with floodplains. Note in the image below how several of the lots border or lay within the floodway. Many more lay within the 100- and 500-year floodplains.
How Bad Could Flooding Be?
But those floodplain maps are outdated and can mislead. High-water marks established by HCFCD and contour maps by the U.S. Geological Survey suggest this property has flooded seriously at least 8 times in the last 20 years.
Elevation profile from USGS National Map
From the East Fork to the end of Oaknoll Drive, the elevation rises from approximately 42.5 feet to 67 feet. The 24.5-foot difference might sound like a lot. But consider this.
In 1994, the flood of record for the East Fork in this area (before Harvey), crested at 76.2 feet. That would have put the highest property near Oaknoll under 9 feet of water. The lowest property near the river would have been under 33.7 feet of water.
Then came Harvey. At the nearest gage, the East Fork crested at 81.2 feet.
That would have put the highest and lowest properties under 14.2 feet and 38.7 feet of water respectively.
Even though most of the acquired properties are shown in the 500-year flood plain, most of them have been under water eight times in the 20 years since 1994.
Floodplains change with better understanding of the climate, upstream development, and better measurement technologies, such as LIDAR. Our current flood maps were developed after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. But we’ve gotten a lot smarter about flood mapping since then.
That’s why Harris County Flood Control District and FEMA are updating flood maps for this area. The floodplains you see above will likely expand by 50% to 100% according to preliminary guidance from Harris County Flood Control. FEMA is in the process of certifying revised maps and should release them later this year or early next for public comment.
Are Readings from FM1485 Analogous to Cypress Point?
Give or take few feet, the flood depths cited above are probably in the ballpark. Even if the high-water marks at Cypress Point are a few feet lower, they still represent serious flooding.
HarrisCountyFEMT.org shows that the width of the floodplain at FM1485 and Cypress Point, lower left, does not vary significantly.
One of the region’s leading hydrologists who has studied this area extensively felt the flood heights at FM1485 would translate well to Cypress Point where Colony Ridge is acquiring property. Colony Ridge has purchased at least 19 properties in the affected area. The map below shows where they are.
Note how virtually all purchases happened after Imelda, which would have put even higher properties under almost six feet of water.
Another property valuation report shows how the land value decreased 73% after Imelda in 2019. Colony Ridge purchased most of the properties in 2020. Bargain hunting?
Homes on Stilts Likely Unaffordable for Colony Ridge Target Market
Many may not have a firm grasp of English. Few likely understand flood risk, especially the nuances of flood maps in flux. And Colony Ridge typically “owner finances,” meaning buyers don’t go through banks which would require flood studies and flood insurance before making a mortgage loan.
Under today’s guidelines for developing land in floodplains, especially this deep in floodplains, homebuilders would likely have to elevate homes on stilts. And elevating homes 35 feet high would likely make them cost prohibitive for most of Colony Ridge’s primary target market.
Watch this one closely to make sure that no rules get broken.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/4/23
2166 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Cypress-Point-Sat-View-Outlined.jpg?fit=1100%2C864&ssl=18641100adminadmin2023-08-04 16:37:572023-08-05 10:22:59Colony Ridge Buying Up Floodplain Land in Huffman
Smoking Guns Buried in Harris County 2022 Primary Election Report
This week, Harris County is releasing to the public a final report on the botched March 2022 primary election – a year after the report’s completion. That’s almost a year after a second botched election last November that has mired the County in lawsuits over election results.
The report recommended a number of changes in election processes. Had the then newly appointed Harris County Elections Administrator Clifford Tatum implemented the recommendations before the November election, many of the problems experienced by voters might have been prevented. But no one has explained why Tatum didn’t.
Most of the problems detailed in March also happened in November.
Fifty pages of election-worker survey data buried at the end of the March election report quantifies the magnitude of the problems that voters experienced.
As you read the numbers below, keep in mind that County Judge Lina Hidalgo’s official margin of victory was 1.65%.
Key Takeaways from Data
The following results jumped out at me.
Question 18 on page 100
Quantified the percentages of poll workers who experienced the following types of equipment problems:
Question 17 on page 99
Delved into who (among election workers) had the problems and when:
Question 10A on page 66
Measured the rough estimates of election workers as to voters who experienced problems:
Question 9 on page 65
Measured how long it took election workers to get help via phone:
This contributed to long lines during the November election.
Question 7 on page 63
Measured how long it took election workers to pick up supplies:
This contributed to many polls opening late in November.
Question 24 on Page 105
Looked at Political Affiliation of poll workers:
Vague Recommendations Don’t Get to Heart of Issue
The recommendations by the consultant performing the analysis focused mainly on processes and process improvements. Their recommendations on page 108 include:
“B Certified”
The consultant’s report did, however, give us a clue about their company values.
A “B certified” watermark showed up on virtually every page of the ForsMarsh report. I didn’t know what that meant, so I looked it up.
BCorporation.net, a company that B-certifies other companies says, “Certified B Corporations are leaders in the global movement for an inclusive, equitable, and regenerative economy. Unlike other certifications for businesses, B Lab is unique in our ability to measure a company’s entire social and environmental impact.”
In choosing a vendor to audit the election, it would seem that Harris County selected a vendor that was more concerned with social impact than fairness. Their report demonstrates that.
Little Fanfare for Long-Awaited Report
The ForsMarsh Group delivered its report to Harris County on August 31, 2022. It’s now available to the public as the backup to Agenda Item 313 for the August 8, 2023, Commissioners Court meeting. That’s little fanfare for a long-awaited report.
By the way, #313 is a simple transmittal of the report to commissioners. No context or explanation is provided.
Too bad we didn’t have the report in a timely way before the November election last year. So much for transparency!
And little wonder that County Election Administrator Clifford Tatum is playing dodgeball with depositions. At the end of June this year, Tatum failed to appear for a scheduled deposition. And now, attorneys representing Judge Lina Hidalgo filed a motion to quash any further depositions of Tatum.
One Final Qualification and a Question
Harris County has also stonewalled production of records related to the November election. Data in the just-released report finally quantifies issues in the March primary election. However, it does not measure November election problems directly, i.e., those over which Tatum presided.
Regardless, the Primary data parallels independently compiled evidence of similar problems found on Election Day in November. That raises one final question: Nine months after the November election, why haven’t we seen an official report on it yet?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/7/23
2169 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Mark Your Calendar: Harris County Precinct 3 Budget Meeting
Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey and Daniel Ramos, Executive Director of Harris County’s Office of Management & Budget, will host a town-hall budget meeting to discuss next year’s budget.
Commissioner Ramsey urges you to attend and voice your opinions on how the county should address wasteful spending, save money, and prioritize next year’s budget.
Why You Should Attend
Precinct 3 maintains nearly 47% of the county’s roadways, but only receives 25% of the general funds, and only received 17% of the 2022 Road and Park Bonds.
Commissioner Ramsey expresses the need for the public to attend in order to understand how tax dollars are truly being spent.
This meeting will let you voice your priorities on how Harris County should prioritize its responsibilities and spending of tax dollars.
Meeting Details
WHEN: Monday, August 14th, 2023, 6 PM
WHERE: George H.W. Bush Community Center
6827 Cypresswood Dr., Spring, TX 77379
Q&A SESSION: Following presentations
Free Shuttle Service
The county will offer free shuttle service from the following Precinct 3 Community Centers. Space is limited. Pre-registration required. Call the community center to save your spot!
Barrett Station Community Center
Departs at 3:45 PM
Call (713) 274-2040 to register
Crosby Community Center
Departs at 4:15 PM
Call (832) 927-7730 to register
May Community Center
Departs at 4:30 PM
Call (713) 274-2434 to register
San Jacinto Community Center
Departs at 4:15 PM
Call (713) 274-2860 to register
Trini Mendenhall Community Center
Departs at 4:30 PM
Call (713) 274-3200 to register
County Responsibilities in Texas
For reference, according to the Texas Association of Counties, responsibilities of Texas county government include:
Harris County also offers libraries, parks, and other programs that add to the quality of life for residents. Many play a vital role in the economic development.
So learn more at the Town Hall. Join other concerned residents and let your voice be heard on how tax dollars should be prioritized and spent. I’ll be there. And I hope to comment about the distribution of flood bond money.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/5/2023
2067 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Colony Ridge Buying Up Floodplain Land in Huffman
Colony Ridge Land, LLC, developer of the world’s largest trailer park in Liberty County, is buying up Harris County property in the floodplain of the East Fork San Jacinto. Since the property in the Cypress Point subdivision was originally platted, flood maps changed in 2001 and are in the process of changing again. Most of the properties face serious flood risk that the current flood maps may not communicate.
Land Remains Uncleared
Development has not yet started. The land is still heavily wooded…so much so, in fact, that dirt roads developed in the 1980s have become overtaken by trees and undergrowth. They are barely passable according to one person I talked to.
Back in the late 1980s, the original developer cleared space for roads and platted the land going down to the East Fork. But today, paved roads stop about a quarter mile short of the river. From the air, those old dirt roads look like a slight indentation in the forest canopy.
The Big Question
Why did the original developers stop short of paving roads all the way to the river? The answer likely has something to do with floodplains. Note in the image below how several of the lots border or lay within the floodway. Many more lay within the 100- and 500-year floodplains.
How Bad Could Flooding Be?
But those floodplain maps are outdated and can mislead. High-water marks established by HCFCD and contour maps by the U.S. Geological Survey suggest this property has flooded seriously at least 8 times in the last 20 years.
From the East Fork to the end of Oaknoll Drive, the elevation rises from approximately 42.5 feet to 67 feet. The 24.5-foot difference might sound like a lot. But consider this.
In 1994, the flood of record for the East Fork in this area (before Harvey), crested at 76.2 feet. That would have put the highest property near Oaknoll under 9 feet of water. The lowest property near the river would have been under 33.7 feet of water.
Then came Harvey. At the nearest gage, the East Fork crested at 81.2 feet.
All figures were computed using the elevation profile function in the USGS National Map, and cross referencing the results with the Harris County Flood Warning System gage at FM1485.
Even though most of the acquired properties are shown in the 500-year flood plain, most of them have been under water eight times in the 20 years since 1994.
In fact, most of the undeveloped lots likely flooded in an unnamed and already forgotten flood in April of this year.
Official Floodplains Expanding
Floodplains change with better understanding of the climate, upstream development, and better measurement technologies, such as LIDAR. Our current flood maps were developed after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. But we’ve gotten a lot smarter about flood mapping since then.
That’s why Harris County Flood Control District and FEMA are updating flood maps for this area. The floodplains you see above will likely expand by 50% to 100% according to preliminary guidance from Harris County Flood Control. FEMA is in the process of certifying revised maps and should release them later this year or early next for public comment.
Are Readings from FM1485 Analogous to Cypress Point?
Give or take few feet, the flood depths cited above are probably in the ballpark. Even if the high-water marks at Cypress Point are a few feet lower, they still represent serious flooding.
One of the region’s leading hydrologists who has studied this area extensively felt the flood heights at FM1485 would translate well to Cypress Point where Colony Ridge is acquiring property. Colony Ridge has purchased at least 19 properties in the affected area. The map below shows where they are.
Another property valuation report shows how the land value decreased 73% after Imelda in 2019. Colony Ridge purchased most of the properties in 2020. Bargain hunting?
Homes on Stilts Likely Unaffordable for Colony Ridge Target Market
It’s not clear what Colony Ridge plans to build on this property. However, the company has a history of selling land to Hispanic immigrants, then letting them clear their own lots and bring in trailer homes.
Many may not have a firm grasp of English. Few likely understand flood risk, especially the nuances of flood maps in flux. And Colony Ridge typically “owner finances,” meaning buyers don’t go through banks which would require flood studies and flood insurance before making a mortgage loan.
Alleged abuses are so common that whole websites have been set up to chronicle them.
Under today’s guidelines for developing land in floodplains, especially this deep in floodplains, homebuilders would likely have to elevate homes on stilts. And elevating homes 35 feet high would likely make them cost prohibitive for most of Colony Ridge’s primary target market.
Watch this one closely to make sure that no rules get broken.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/4/23
2166 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.