Scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — have increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity.
Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.
Chances of Above Normal Season Increase from 30% to 60%
NOAA forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, down from the 40% chances outlined in May’s outlook. This new update gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season.
Prediction for Named Storms Increase from 12-17 to 14-21
In May 2023, NOAA predicted 12-17 named storms. NOAA’s update calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater). Of those, 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). And of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. These updated ranges include storms that have already formed this season.
The updated 2023 Atlantic hurricane season probability and number of named storms. (Image credit: NOAA)
The Atlantic basin experienced an active start to the hurricane season with five storms that have reached at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane already. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Climate Factors Influencing Predictions
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Sea surface temperature departures from normal for August 10, 2023.Source: NOAA
Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so NOAA urges everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.
Activity should ramp up quickly in August and September, if this season follows the pattern for the last 100 years.
El Nino conditions are currently being observed and there is a greater than 95% chance that El Nino will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, according to the latest ENSO discussion from the Climate Prediction Center.
El Nino usually results in atmospheric conditions that help to lessen tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season. So far, those limiting conditions have been slow to develop.
Climate scientists forecast that the El-Nino associated impacts that limit tropical cyclone activity may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
A below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast.
Five Storms Already
The Atlantic basin experienced a tropical storm in January which was unnamed. Since the start of the season, we have already experienced four other storms.
The 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization. (Image credit: NOAA)
More About Hurricane Season Outlooks
NOAA’s hurricane outlooks are forecasts of overall season activity, not landfalls. A storm’s landfall is usually the result of mesoscale weather patterns and are typically predictable within roughly one week of a storm approaching a landmass.
In June, NOAA deployed a new model to help produce hurricane forecasts. The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System was put into operations on June 27 and will run alongside existing models for the 2023 season before replacing them as NOAA’s premier hurricane forecasting model.
NOAA urges everyone in vulnerable areas to have a well-thought-out hurricane plan and stay informed through official channels as this season progresses.
I bookmark the National Hurricane Center landing page and check it first thing every morning during the season. NHC expects no tropical activity in the Atlantic during the next seven days.
Reposted by Bob Rehak on 8/11/2023 from the National Hurricane Center
2073 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230811-IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-AUGUST-UPDATE-2023-Pie-081023-NOAA.jpg?fit=1100%2C680&ssl=16801100adminadmin2023-08-11 17:14:092023-09-10 17:20:34NOAA Increases 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Exactly one month before the peak of hurricane season, Kingwood Drive construction has kicked into high gear. Kingwood Drive is one of the area’s primary evacuation routes and experiencing construction bottlenecks.
Source: National Hurricane Center. Data applies to Atlantic Basin.
Luckily, the National Hurricane Center expects no tropical activity in the next seven days. NHC does not forecast beyond seven days.
Aerial Photos Show Traffic Constrictions
Reconstruction of Kingwood Drive between Loop 494 and US59 has begun in earnest. TxDoT has narrowed traffic to one lane in each direction. And according to the City of Houston, TxDoT now estimates that construction may last until October. Previously, TxDoT estimated September.
Dave Martin, City of Houston Mayor Pro Tem, told a board meeting of the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority this morning that he has asked the City, County and Humble ISD to supply traffic-control officers for the duration of Kingwood Drive construction to help reduce traffic snarls. But just before noon today, inbound traffic was backed up from all the way from 494 to 59.
I took the photos below on Thursday 8/10/2023. They show traffic constrictions in all directions.
Looking N from over Loop 494. Note 494 is still under construction. Number of lanes varies by area.Still looking N. Kingwood Drive bisects the frame L to R and is down to one lane in each direction.At noon, inbound traffic from 59 was backed up to freeway. Outbound traffic on left was less congested. But that part quickly opened up to four lanes at this point today. Note how sidewalk and shoulder on left are being demolished. Focus of construction is on right side.Looking eastbound toward 494. Note fresh concrete in lane on left.Looking SW toward Insperity. Workers are laying rebar in preparation for a concrete pour in upper right corner.Note recent pours in lower right.
The last shot above captures the confusing traffic in this area. Despite the addition of officers, I plan to avoid this area as much as possible until construction is complete.
At the moment, Northpark Drive makes a decent alternative despite construction there, too. Northpark traffic is still two lanes in each direction. And the project manager says it will remain that way throughout construction.
Grand Parkway Construction Went Much Faster
I sure hope that if a hurricane heads this way, TxDoT hustles up. Loop 494 construction started at Kingwood Drive in 2019, four years ago – exactly when TxDot started extending the Grand Parkway east from 59 to Baytown. Grand Parkway crews finished the 33-mile extension to Baytown 15 months ago. The project above covers 3 miles. Reportedly, TxDoT has switched contractors after problems with the first one.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/10/23
2172 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230810-DJI_0337.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-10 14:57:392023-08-10 15:34:24Kingwood Drive Construction Bottlenecks Evacuation Route One Month Before Peak of Hurricane Season
To help accommodate the expansion of Northpark Drive and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch, City of Houston (CoH) contractors are cleaning sediment from under the Northpark Bridges. This effort will eliminate a constriction in the Diversion Ditch that backed stormwater up, forcing it into Bens Branch, flooding people, businesses and schools downstream.
Separately, Week 2 of Northpark Drive expansion has seen other breakthroughs farther west.
Cleaning and expansion of the median ditch have reached almost to the UnionPacific (UP) railroad tracks that parallel Loop 494.
CoH and UP are also reaching agreements – at long last – that will let contractors move forward with construction at a much faster rate.
See more details and photos below.
Photos of Bridge Clean-out Taken 8/8/23
Looking east toward Woodland Hills at sediment removal project under Northpark bridges.Side view looking SE toward North Woodland Hills shows more of work under bridge.Looking west across Diversion Ditch and sediment removal project toward Russell Palmer. Photo by Father TJ Dolce of St. Martha Catholic Church.
8/8/23 Photos of Northpark Ditch Clean-out
Looking East from Northpark median at Public Storage. Note Duncan Donuts on left.Reverse angle looking West shows remaining distance to UP tracks and Loop 494 at intersection.
The ditch clean-out will make room for 5′ x 7′ box culverts like those you see below. Workers have now buried all of the round concrete pipe stockpiled last week. They have also cut through concrete in the crossover between the fireworks stand and Flowers of Kingwood.
Steel cofferdam prevents wall collapse, protects workers in ditch.
According to Ralph De Leon, project manager for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority and TIRZ 10, CoH and UP have come to terms on one agreement and are close to finalizing a second.
The first covers covers maintenance and construction. It will let contractors drill under the railroad tracks to address utility issues. Cost: $2.2 million.
The second agreement covers vertical and horizontal easements. Cost: under $200 thousand. The easements will let contractors build a bridge and access roads over the tracks.
However, it will also require the TIRZ to purchase two additional tracts of land north and south of Northpark at the railroad tracks.
Resident Reacts to Sediment Removal in Diversion Ditch
Flood activist and Kingwood resident Chris Bloch lauded the CoH sediment removal under the Northpark Bridge. He called it, “Great news for Kingwood!”
“Removal of the sediment under the Northpark bridges will substantially recover conveyance capacity of the Diversion Ditch,” he added. “When the water level in the Diversion Ditch touches the bottom of the Northpark bridges, the bridge acts as a dam and water levels upstream rise rapidly.” That forces water into Bens Branch, threatening homes and businesses on either side of it.
Remembering Stan Sarman
Bloch worked with former TIRZ president Stan Sarman, who was also an engineer, to approach Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin and CoH about the need for this project. They agreed that sediment removal from the Diversion Ditch under the Northpark Bridges would help reduce flood risk in Woodland Hills, Hunters Ridge, Bear Branch and Kings Forest.
Martin’s office arranged for the purchase order to get this project done.
Bloch took video during Imelda and shared it with Sarman, who had the original drawings of the bridge and channel from 1972. He is quick to give credit to Sarman who has since passed away. “I am not sure most Kingwood residents appreciate all Sarman did for Kingwood,” said Bloch.
This project and the repair of the channel under the Tree Lane Bridge are valued at nearly $1 million dollars.
Come back soon for more updates. The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority will hold a public board meeting Thursday at 8 a.m. at the Kingwood Community Center to discuss this and other business.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/9/2023
2171 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230808-DJI_0248.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-09 06:14:272023-08-09 09:13:52CoH Removing Sediment under Northpark Bridges, More Good News on Northpark Expansion
NOAA Increases 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Reprinted from the National Hurricane Center website with some additions.
Scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — have increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity.
Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.
Chances of Above Normal Season Increase from 30% to 60%
NOAA forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, down from the 40% chances outlined in May’s outlook. This new update gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season.
Prediction for Named Storms Increase from 12-17 to 14-21
In May 2023, NOAA predicted 12-17 named storms. NOAA’s update calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater). Of those, 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). And of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. These updated ranges include storms that have already formed this season.
The Atlantic basin experienced an active start to the hurricane season with five storms that have reached at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane already. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Climate Factors Influencing Predictions
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so NOAA urges everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.
Activity should ramp up quickly in August and September, if this season follows the pattern for the last 100 years.
El Nino conditions are currently being observed and there is a greater than 95% chance that El Nino will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, according to the latest ENSO discussion from the Climate Prediction Center.
El Nino usually results in atmospheric conditions that help to lessen tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season. So far, those limiting conditions have been slow to develop.
A below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast.
Five Storms Already
The Atlantic basin experienced a tropical storm in January which was unnamed. Since the start of the season, we have already experienced four other storms.
More About Hurricane Season Outlooks
NOAA’s hurricane outlooks are forecasts of overall season activity, not landfalls. A storm’s landfall is usually the result of mesoscale weather patterns and are typically predictable within roughly one week of a storm approaching a landmass.
In June, NOAA deployed a new model to help produce hurricane forecasts. The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System was put into operations on June 27 and will run alongside existing models for the 2023 season before replacing them as NOAA’s premier hurricane forecasting model.
NOAA urges everyone in vulnerable areas to have a well-thought-out hurricane plan and stay informed through official channels as this season progresses.
I bookmark the National Hurricane Center landing page and check it first thing every morning during the season. NHC expects no tropical activity in the Atlantic during the next seven days.
Reposted by Bob Rehak on 8/11/2023 from the National Hurricane Center
2073 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Kingwood Drive Construction Bottlenecks Evacuation Route One Month Before Peak of Hurricane Season
Exactly one month before the peak of hurricane season, Kingwood Drive construction has kicked into high gear. Kingwood Drive is one of the area’s primary evacuation routes and experiencing construction bottlenecks.
Luckily, the National Hurricane Center expects no tropical activity in the next seven days. NHC does not forecast beyond seven days.
Aerial Photos Show Traffic Constrictions
Reconstruction of Kingwood Drive between Loop 494 and US59 has begun in earnest. TxDoT has narrowed traffic to one lane in each direction. And according to the City of Houston, TxDoT now estimates that construction may last until October. Previously, TxDoT estimated September.
Dave Martin, City of Houston Mayor Pro Tem, told a board meeting of the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority this morning that he has asked the City, County and Humble ISD to supply traffic-control officers for the duration of Kingwood Drive construction to help reduce traffic snarls. But just before noon today, inbound traffic was backed up from all the way from 494 to 59.
I took the photos below on Thursday 8/10/2023. They show traffic constrictions in all directions.
The last shot above captures the confusing traffic in this area. Despite the addition of officers, I plan to avoid this area as much as possible until construction is complete.
At the moment, Northpark Drive makes a decent alternative despite construction there, too. Northpark traffic is still two lanes in each direction. And the project manager says it will remain that way throughout construction.
Grand Parkway Construction Went Much Faster
I sure hope that if a hurricane heads this way, TxDoT hustles up. Loop 494 construction started at Kingwood Drive in 2019, four years ago – exactly when TxDot started extending the Grand Parkway east from 59 to Baytown. Grand Parkway crews finished the 33-mile extension to Baytown 15 months ago. The project above covers 3 miles. Reportedly, TxDoT has switched contractors after problems with the first one.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/10/23
2172 Days since Hurricane Harvey
CoH Removing Sediment under Northpark Bridges, More Good News on Northpark Expansion
To help accommodate the expansion of Northpark Drive and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch, City of Houston (CoH) contractors are cleaning sediment from under the Northpark Bridges. This effort will eliminate a constriction in the Diversion Ditch that backed stormwater up, forcing it into Bens Branch, flooding people, businesses and schools downstream.
Separately, Week 2 of Northpark Drive expansion has seen other breakthroughs farther west.
See more details and photos below.
Photos of Bridge Clean-out Taken 8/8/23
8/8/23 Photos of Northpark Ditch Clean-out
The ditch clean-out will make room for 5′ x 7′ box culverts like those you see below. Workers have now buried all of the round concrete pipe stockpiled last week. They have also cut through concrete in the crossover between the fireworks stand and Flowers of Kingwood.
The “step-down” from the box culverts to the round concrete pipe (now buried) will provide in-line stormwater detention during heavy rains that helps reduce flood potential in the receiving ditch, i.e., the Diversion Ditch.
UP and CoH Near Agreement on Access Rights
According to Ralph De Leon, project manager for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority and TIRZ 10, CoH and UP have come to terms on one agreement and are close to finalizing a second.
The first covers covers maintenance and construction. It will let contractors drill under the railroad tracks to address utility issues. Cost: $2.2 million.
The second agreement covers vertical and horizontal easements. Cost: under $200 thousand. The easements will let contractors build a bridge and access roads over the tracks.
However, it will also require the TIRZ to purchase two additional tracts of land north and south of Northpark at the railroad tracks.
Resident Reacts to Sediment Removal in Diversion Ditch
Flood activist and Kingwood resident Chris Bloch lauded the CoH sediment removal under the Northpark Bridge. He called it, “Great news for Kingwood!”
“Removal of the sediment under the Northpark bridges will substantially recover conveyance capacity of the Diversion Ditch,” he added. “When the water level in the Diversion Ditch touches the bottom of the Northpark bridges, the bridge acts as a dam and water levels upstream rise rapidly.” That forces water into Bens Branch, threatening homes and businesses on either side of it.
Remembering Stan Sarman
Bloch worked with former TIRZ president Stan Sarman, who was also an engineer, to approach Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin and CoH about the need for this project. They agreed that sediment removal from the Diversion Ditch under the Northpark Bridges would help reduce flood risk in Woodland Hills, Hunters Ridge, Bear Branch and Kings Forest.
Martin’s office arranged for the purchase order to get this project done.
Bloch took video during Imelda and shared it with Sarman, who had the original drawings of the bridge and channel from 1972. He is quick to give credit to Sarman who has since passed away. “I am not sure most Kingwood residents appreciate all Sarman did for Kingwood,” said Bloch.
This project and the repair of the channel under the Tree Lane Bridge are valued at nearly $1 million dollars.
Up Next
The LHRA/TIRZ are now providing weekly updates of construction activity so you can see what’s coming next.
Come back soon for more updates. The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority will hold a public board meeting Thursday at 8 a.m. at the Kingwood Community Center to discuss this and other business.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/9/2023
2171 Days since Hurricane Harvey