Second in a series on ChatGPT and Flood-Mitigation Recommendations
Yesterday, I posted ChatGPT’s recommendations on the most effective techniques for flood control. The artificial-intelligence research tool compiled an impressive list, later validated by experts in the field. But they all said the recommendations were high-level. So I conducted another test in which I drilled down into various aspects of the topic.
Q. “What are best management practices in construction that help reduce flooding?”
A. “Implementing best management practices (BMPs) in construction can help minimize the impact of construction activities on stormwater runoff and reduce the risk of flooding. Here are some key BMPs commonly used to address stormwater management and flood reduction in construction:
Sediment and Erosion Control: Implementing measures to prevent sediment and erosion is crucial in construction sites. This includes installing erosion control devices such as sediment barriers, silt fences, and sediment basins. These structures help contain sediment on-site and prevent it from entering stormwater runoff, which can clog drainage systems and contribute to downstream flooding.
Stormwater Management Plans: Developing and following a comprehensive stormwater management plan is essential. It should include strategies for capturing and controlling stormwater runoff during construction activities. This may involve installing sediment traps, using sediment filter socks, or utilizing temporary or permanent stormwater detention ponds to reduce peak flows and prevent flooding downstream.
Site Grading and Drainage Design: Proper site grading and drainage design are critical to direct stormwater runoff away from vulnerable areas and into appropriate stormwater management facilities. By creating well-designed swales, channels, and berms, water can be efficiently directed to detention ponds or other retention structures, reducing the risk of localized flooding.
Use of Best Construction Practices: Employing construction practices that minimize soil disturbance and protect natural drainage patterns can help prevent excessive runoff and erosion. This includes avoiding excessive clearing, preserving existing vegetation where possible, and using construction techniques that minimize soil compaction.
Stabilization of Disturbed Areas: Prompt stabilization of disturbed areas is crucial to minimize erosion and sediment runoff. Implementing erosion control measures such as mulching, revegetation, or the use of erosion control blankets can help stabilize exposed soil and reduce the potential for sediment runoff into stormwater systems.
Construction Site Runoff Control: Managing and treating construction site runoff is important to prevent contaminants from entering water bodies and exacerbating flood risks. Utilizing sediment traps, sediment basins, or construction site sediment filters can help remove sediment and pollutants from runoff before it is discharged into waterways.
Education and Training: Providing education and training to construction site workers on proper stormwater management practices and BMP implementation is vital. This helps ensure that everyone involved in the construction process understands the importance of controlling runoff and minimizing flood risks.
Regular Inspection and Maintenance: Regularly inspecting and maintaining stormwater management structures and erosion control measures is crucial to their effectiveness. Sediment traps, erosion control devices, and stormwater management facilities should be inspected, cleaned, and repaired as necessary to ensure they function properly and continue to reduce flood risks.
By incorporating these best management practices into construction activities, the potential for erosion, sediment runoff, and localized flooding can be significantly reduced. It is important for construction projects to comply with local regulations and guidelines related to stormwater management and flood control to ensure effective implementation of these practices.”
Experience Shows Value of Recommendations
Wow! It provides a good summary – without days of research of construction regulations in thousands of jurisdictions across the county.
I’ve documented numerous instances of what happens to neighbors when contractors do NOT follow these BMPs.
There was the case of Woodridge Village, the aborted Perry Homes development in Montgomery County at the headwaters of Taylor Gully. Workers there violated virtually every one of those recommendations and up to 600 neighboring families paid the price. They flooded twice in a matter of months. Perry, its subsidiaries and contractors wound up offering a substantial settlement to the flooded families to compensate them for damages.
And just blocks away, a 200+ acre development called Royal Pines made many of the same mistakes. Royal Pines didn’t flood as many neighbors, but it flooded them more often – twice in one month last last year and then again more recently.
Use ChatGPT to Drill Down Quickly
As with yesterday’s post about the “most effective techniques to reduce flooding,” the question about construction BMPs yielded fairly high level results within seconds.
This illustrates one of the most important aspects of using ChatGPT: DRILL DOWN into subjects. Don’t just take the first answer you get.
For instance, ask variations on the original question. Example: When you ask, “What are the consequences for flood control of NOT following construction BMPs,” you find information about:
Increased erosion that can clog water bodies and increase the risk of flooding
Stormwater runoff pollution that can degrade water quality clog drainage systems
Reduced infiltration capacity that increases stormwater runoff and flood risk
Inadequate stormwater management leading to inadequate storage and conveyance capacity
Legal and financial consequences
Explore Different Aspects of Topic
You can also drill down quickly to explore different aspectsof a topic. For instance, when I asked ChatGPT about “the most effective environmental solutions that reduced flooding,” it listed six more recommendations:
Natural Water Retention Measures
Reforestation and Afforestation
Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS)
River and Channel Restoration
Floodplain Management and Zoning
Climate Change Adaptation
I then drilled down on Sustainable Urban Drainage Design and found eight more recommendations including:
Permeable Surfaces
Green Roofs
Rain Gardens
Bioretention Systems
Detention and Retention Basins
Wetlands and Ponds
Water Harvesting: Systems
Education and Awareness
ChatGPT gave clear, concise explanations of each of these topics, plus a summary that put them all in perspective. I just didn’t list them here to keep the length of this post manageable.
Tomorrow in Part 3 of this series on ChatGPT, I’ll describe some of the limitations of this impressive research tool: What happens when it makes a mistake?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/28/2023
2098 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Woodridge-Flood-e1685293428100.jpg?fit=1100%2C677&ssl=16771100adminadmin2023-05-28 12:04:322023-05-28 12:17:15ChatGPT Recommends Construction BMPs that Reduce Flooding
First in a three-part series about ChatGPT and FloodKnowledge
The flood of articles about ChatGPT recently prompted me to wonder whether the artificial intelligence application could accurately answer questions about flooding. So I set up an account, started asking questions, and checked the answers with experts. The responses revealed patterns of strengths and weaknesses.
The more general the questions, the better the answers.
The more specific the questions, the more it missed.
In one test, it seriously missed an answer and gave misleading advice.
In another, it omitted an important component of the answer.
Sometimes I got no responses at all.
Despite ChatGPT’s considerable strengths, my test raised a red “caution flag” on this newly minted intellectual booster rocket. In my opinion, the biggest danger in using it is this.
The answers to questions seem so competent, an unsuspecting user may not question them.
My advice:
Use it, but also use it with caution.
Understand the limitations.
Drill down into topics and cross check the answers with other sources.
Test Run and Validation
I first asked ChatGPT, “What are the most effective techniques for flood control?” I sent the results to an industry leading hydrologist who specializes in flood control and the leaders of two leading conservation groups in the Houston area.
I asked them to grade the answer on a scale of A through F and to answer two simple questions. Was the ChatGPT response accurate? And did it omit anything important?
ChatGPT Response to Test Question
Below are my question and the ChatGPT response reproduced verbatim:
Q: “What are the most effective techniques for flood control?”
A: “Flood control involves a combination of structural and non-structural techniques to minimize the impact of flooding. Here are some of the most effective techniques used for flood control:
Dams and Reservoirs: Constructing dams and reservoirs helps regulate the flow of water in rivers and store excess water during heavy rainfall. This reduces downstream flood risk by controlling the release of water.
Levees and Flood Walls: Building levees and flood walls along riverbanks and coastlines can provide physical barriers to prevent floodwaters from reaching populated areas. These structures are designed to withstand the pressure of water and redirect it away from vulnerable regions.
Channelization: Modifying and straightening river channels can increase their capacity and improve the flow of water, reducing the risk of overflow. This technique involves reshaping riverbanks, removing obstacles, and dredging to deepen the channel.
Floodplain Zoning: Implementing land-use planning measures such as floodplain zoning helps prevent development in high-risk areas. By restricting construction and promoting open spaces or green infrastructure, floodwater can be absorbed or diverted, reducing damage to buildings and infrastructure.
Stormwater Management: Effective stormwater management systems capture and store rainwater, reducing the volume of water entering rivers and drainage systems during storms. Techniques include the use of retention ponds, green roofs, permeable pavements, and sustainable drainage systems (SUDS).
Wetland Restoration: Wetlands act as natural buffers against flooding, absorbing and storing excess water. Restoring and preserving wetlands can help regulate water flow, reduce flood peaks, and provide habitats for wildlife.
River Embankments and Terracing: Strengthening riverbanks through embankments and terracing helps contain floodwaters within the river channel. These techniques can reduce erosion and prevent water from spreading onto surrounding floodplains.
Urban Drainage Systems: Well-designed urban drainage systems, including storm sewers, culverts, and retention basins, efficiently collect and transport stormwater away from urban areas. Proper maintenance of these systems is crucial to prevent blockages and ensure effective flood control.
Early Warning Systems: Implementing advanced monitoring and early warning systems allows for timely dissemination of flood alerts to at-risk communities. This gives people more time to evacuate or take necessary precautions to protect life and property.
Public Awareness and Education: Raising public awareness about flood risks, safety procedures, and emergency response plans can significantly reduce the impact of floods. Educating communities on flood preparedness, including evacuation routes and the importance of insurance coverage, helps people respond effectively during flood events.
It’s worth noting that the most effective flood control strategies often involve a combination of these techniques, tailored to the specific characteristics and challenges of the area at risk. Additionally, climate change adaptation measures and sustainable water management practices play a crucial role in mitigating the long-term effects of flooding.”
Evaluation of Response by Experts
Hydrologist/flood expert: “That response is pretty good. It really depends on the audience. I would give it a B+ because it is thorough, but very general. Obviously, it doesn’t take into account the location, development, topography, etc., so that is why it can’t ever give an “A+” answer.”
Environmentalist #1: “I would give this an A. It’s basic, but it’s pretty comprehensive. Especially items 5,6,7, which are not always considered as common strategies employed for flood mitigation.”
Environmentalist #2: “I would give it an A- or B+. It hit many of the green strategies. But it did not seem to talk about preservation of natural ecosystems, like forests, floodplains, beaches, and grasslands. Nor did it discuss the use of hybrid solutions that incorporate engineered features with natural materials that mimic the functioning of natural ecosystems. I would also add another item to the list, ‘Use of native vegetation in residential and commercial areas to increase infiltration.'”
My Impression
I concluded ChatGPT is a research tool like any other.
Strengths
It’s definitely faster than search engines that would require you to explore dozens of links in order to compile a list like the one above.
It even composes well-formed summaries/answers for you in simple, easy-to-understand language.
It feels as though you are conversing with a knowledgeable, patient teacher.
It’s a great jumping-off point to start intellectual exploration.
If this were an “Intro to…” or “Principles of…” course, I would give it an A- or B+. It gives good, comprehensive, well-formed answers. The grammar is impressive for something computer generated.
Weaknesses
But that last strength can inspire a dangerous overconfidence that will become more apparent in the next two posts.
Also, it never quantified “most effective,” but in fairness, the last paragraph of the response (“worth noting”) explains why that would be problematic.
Down the Rabbit Holes
Armed with my expert’s evaluations, I started down some rabbit holes that revealed more strengths, weaknesses, limitations and an outright error on different aspects of flood control.
But more on those in the next two posts. One involves construction best management practices. Another will focus on the capabilities of a government agency, the Texas General Land Office.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/27/2023
2097 days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/20210420-DJI_0429.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2023-05-27 14:10:042023-05-27 14:59:58ChatGPT Advice on Most Effective Techniques for Flood Control
Jace Houston, the San Jacinto River Authority’s (SJRA) General Manager and point person on subsidence issues, resigned yesterday, 5/25/23, to avert a political war with Montgomery County subsidence deniers that could have taken down the entire SJRA board.
Houston had been with the SJRA for 16 years after spending 10 years with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District. While at the SJRA, the lawyer/engineer helped put together a Groundwater Reduction Plan that included 80 municipalities and municipal utility districts (MUDs) across Montgomery County. He also helped the SJRA construct a surface-water treatment plant on Lake Conroe.
Goals of Effort to Preserve Groundwater
The half-billion dollar plant supplies surface water to the major population centers in Montgomery County, such as Conroe, The Woodlands and Oak Ridge North. Converting the population centers to surface water preserved groundwater for less populated and rural areas where water pipelines become uneconomical.
When the plant came online in 2015, it also virtually neutralized subsidence (see below).
When The Woodlands began using more surface water in 2016 after completion of a surface water pipeline, the rate of subsidence virtually leveled off.
The groundwater preservation effort proved effective at eliminating subsidence. It also helped water utilities avoid major costs associated with declining aquifer levels.
What costs? When water levels in wells drop, suppliers must move pumps deeper and use more electricity to pump water to the surface. In extreme cases, utilities may not be able to get water to the surface at all. Then they must drill new wells, often into deeper aquifers at hefty costs.
Declining well levels are especially worrisome in drought years when/where no alternative sources of water are available. Lack of water can limit population and economic growth as well as agricultural production.
However, preserving groundwater came at a cost. All members of the plan paid a fee to help pay for the surface water treatment plant even if they didn’t buy water from it. The need for such a plan became apparent more than 20 years ago, long before Houston joined the SJRA.
Need to Use Less Groundwater Validated by Legislature, But…
The Texas Leglislature validated the need to use less groundwater when it created the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District (LSGCD) in 2001.
But in recent years, all that was forgotten. The LSGCD board denied subsidence was a problem and advocated unlimited groundwater pumping as a way to lower water costs.
In the meantime, subsidence has returned. So have water well declines.
As you can see below, since the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District began moving to deregulate groundwater usage, well levels have dropped significantly across the county, setting up a day of reckoning in the future.
Undeterred by these signals, the City of Conroe and the LSGCD board took their fight to the state legislature. They got State Representative Will Metcalf of Conroe to propose an amendment to the SJRA Sunset Review Bill that would replace Jace Houston. The amendment passed and emboldened Metcalf, Conroe and the LSGCD.
The amended bill then went to the Senate Water, Agricultural and Rural Affairs Committee where the Conroe/LSGCD contingent testified again. But Senator Charles Perry, the committee chair, talked his fellow members out of adopting their proposals.
However, during the committee debate, Senator Lois Kolkorst, who represents Magnolia, fired a shot across the bow of the SJRA. She suggested making SJRA board-member terms one year.
That would have been disastrous, according to one seasoned SJRA board member, “It takes a year just to learn the job,” he said.
After defeat of all suggested amendments in Perry’s committee, it didn’t take long for back-channel rumors to mushroom. A whisper campaign suggested that sympathetic senator(s) might offer the Metcalf amendment or a one-year board amendment when the bill came up for a vote on the Senate floor.
Within days, the SJRA called a special board meeting to discuss Houston’s employment. While Houston reportedly had many supporters on the SJRA Board, he ultimately chose to resign and avoid a political battle royal that could have damaged the SJRA.
Board Accepts Houston’s Resignation
An article in Community Impact quoted SJRA Board President Ronald Anderson as saying: “At today’s meeting, the SJRA board of directors received and reluctantly accepted a resignation letter from our general manager, Jace Houston. Jace has served with honor and distinction for almost 16 years and has made the SJRA one of the most respected water agencies in the state of Texas.”
Anderson continued, “Even through these recent circumstances involving the legislature, Jace has once again placed the best interests of our organization and customers above his own, and the board wishes him the best in his future endeavors, which we know will be marked by continued success.”
Houston will remain at the SJRA until June 30th. But even on his way out the door, he seems less concerned about his own future than Montgomery County’s water future.
Impact of LSGCD on Water Future of MoCo and More
When asked about the impact of the LSGCD moves, Houston predicted, “They’re not going to regulate the aquifers. They’re going to allow pumpage to increase significantly.”
Houston added, “A lot of great work has been done to put a program together that allows Montgomery County to be able to afford the future water supplies it needs. And all of that is at risk. This just puts the county’s future at risk. They don’t understand the science. LSGCD is just dead wrong on the science.”
Because aquifers flow toward the coast, depleting groundwater in Montgomery County affects Harris and Galveston communities as well. But Metcalf and the LSGCD board never seemed to consider the impact on neighboring counties even though Metcalf’s district represents only about one thirtieth of the population in the San Jacinto watershed.
Because of differential subsidence, the impact of unlimited groundwater pumping in southern Montgomery County could actually tilt Lake Houston toward the north. That’s because the Kingwood/Porter area would subside more than the Lake Houston Dam by about two feet. And that could put many homes near floodplains into floodplains.
Projected subsidence in the northern Lake Houston Area could be 3.25 feet.Meanwhile, projected subsidence at the Lake Houston Dam would only be 1.25 feet.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) should release new, updated models later this year that could affect the rates shown approve (plus or minus).
Houston’s resignation seems to have averted a San Jacinto showdown for now. But some fear this fight isn’t over yet. Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of “As the Swamp Sinks.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/26/2023
2096 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Screenshot-2023-05-26-at-1.30.38-PM.png?fit=2384%2C1342&ssl=113422384adminadmin2023-05-26 18:31:232023-05-27 11:05:22Jace Houston Resigns as SJRA General Manager Under Pressure from Subsidence Deniers
ChatGPT Recommends Construction BMPs that Reduce Flooding
Second in a series on ChatGPT and Flood-Mitigation Recommendations
Yesterday, I posted ChatGPT’s recommendations on the most effective techniques for flood control. The artificial-intelligence research tool compiled an impressive list, later validated by experts in the field. But they all said the recommendations were high-level. So I conducted another test in which I drilled down into various aspects of the topic.
For instance, I asked ChatGPT…
ChatGPT Answer to Construction BMP Question
Q. “What are best management practices in construction that help reduce flooding?”
A. “Implementing best management practices (BMPs) in construction can help minimize the impact of construction activities on stormwater runoff and reduce the risk of flooding. Here are some key BMPs commonly used to address stormwater management and flood reduction in construction:
By incorporating these best management practices into construction activities, the potential for erosion, sediment runoff, and localized flooding can be significantly reduced. It is important for construction projects to comply with local regulations and guidelines related to stormwater management and flood control to ensure effective implementation of these practices.”
Experience Shows Value of Recommendations
Wow! It provides a good summary – without days of research of construction regulations in thousands of jurisdictions across the county.
I’ve documented numerous instances of what happens to neighbors when contractors do NOT follow these BMPs.
There was the case of Woodridge Village, the aborted Perry Homes development in Montgomery County at the headwaters of Taylor Gully. Workers there violated virtually every one of those recommendations and up to 600 neighboring families paid the price. They flooded twice in a matter of months. Perry, its subsidiaries and contractors wound up offering a substantial settlement to the flooded families to compensate them for damages.
And just blocks away, a 200+ acre development called Royal Pines made many of the same mistakes. Royal Pines didn’t flood as many neighbors, but it flooded them more often – twice in one month last last year and then again more recently.
Use ChatGPT to Drill Down Quickly
As with yesterday’s post about the “most effective techniques to reduce flooding,” the question about construction BMPs yielded fairly high level results within seconds.
This illustrates one of the most important aspects of using ChatGPT: DRILL DOWN into subjects. Don’t just take the first answer you get.
For instance, ask variations on the original question. Example: When you ask, “What are the consequences for flood control of NOT following construction BMPs,” you find information about:
Explore Different Aspects of Topic
You can also drill down quickly to explore different aspects of a topic. For instance, when I asked ChatGPT about “the most effective environmental solutions that reduced flooding,” it listed six more recommendations:
I then drilled down on Sustainable Urban Drainage Design and found eight more recommendations including:
ChatGPT gave clear, concise explanations of each of these topics, plus a summary that put them all in perspective. I just didn’t list them here to keep the length of this post manageable.
Tomorrow in Part 3 of this series on ChatGPT, I’ll describe some of the limitations of this impressive research tool: What happens when it makes a mistake?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/28/2023
2098 Days since Hurricane Harvey
ChatGPT Advice on Most Effective Techniques for Flood Control
First in a three-part series about ChatGPT and Flood Knowledge
The flood of articles about ChatGPT recently prompted me to wonder whether the artificial intelligence application could accurately answer questions about flooding. So I set up an account, started asking questions, and checked the answers with experts. The responses revealed patterns of strengths and weaknesses.
Despite ChatGPT’s considerable strengths, my test raised a red “caution flag” on this newly minted intellectual booster rocket. In my opinion, the biggest danger in using it is this.
My advice:
Test Run and Validation
I first asked ChatGPT, “What are the most effective techniques for flood control?” I sent the results to an industry leading hydrologist who specializes in flood control and the leaders of two leading conservation groups in the Houston area.
I asked them to grade the answer on a scale of A through F and to answer two simple questions. Was the ChatGPT response accurate? And did it omit anything important?
ChatGPT Response to Test Question
Below are my question and the ChatGPT response reproduced verbatim:
Q: “What are the most effective techniques for flood control?”
A: “Flood control involves a combination of structural and non-structural techniques to minimize the impact of flooding. Here are some of the most effective techniques used for flood control:
It’s worth noting that the most effective flood control strategies often involve a combination of these techniques, tailored to the specific characteristics and challenges of the area at risk. Additionally, climate change adaptation measures and sustainable water management practices play a crucial role in mitigating the long-term effects of flooding.”
Evaluation of Response by Experts
Hydrologist/flood expert: “That response is pretty good. It really depends on the audience. I would give it a B+ because it is thorough, but very general. Obviously, it doesn’t take into account the location, development, topography, etc., so that is why it can’t ever give an “A+” answer.”
Environmentalist #1: “I would give this an A. It’s basic, but it’s pretty comprehensive. Especially items 5,6,7, which are not always considered as common strategies employed for flood mitigation.”
Environmentalist #2: “I would give it an A- or B+. It hit many of the green strategies. But it did not seem to talk about preservation of natural ecosystems, like forests, floodplains, beaches, and grasslands. Nor did it discuss the use of hybrid solutions that incorporate engineered features with natural materials that mimic the functioning of natural ecosystems. I would also add another item to the list, ‘Use of native vegetation in residential and commercial areas to increase infiltration.'”
My Impression
I concluded ChatGPT is a research tool like any other.
Strengths
It’s definitely faster than search engines that would require you to explore dozens of links in order to compile a list like the one above.
It even composes well-formed summaries/answers for you in simple, easy-to-understand language.
It feels as though you are conversing with a knowledgeable, patient teacher.
It’s a great jumping-off point to start intellectual exploration.
If this were an “Intro to…” or “Principles of…” course, I would give it an A- or B+. It gives good, comprehensive, well-formed answers. The grammar is impressive for something computer generated.
Weaknesses
But that last strength can inspire a dangerous overconfidence that will become more apparent in the next two posts.
Also, it never quantified “most effective,” but in fairness, the last paragraph of the response (“worth noting”) explains why that would be problematic.
Down the Rabbit Holes
Armed with my expert’s evaluations, I started down some rabbit holes that revealed more strengths, weaknesses, limitations and an outright error on different aspects of flood control.
But more on those in the next two posts. One involves construction best management practices. Another will focus on the capabilities of a government agency, the Texas General Land Office.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/27/2023
2097 days since Hurricane Harvey
Jace Houston Resigns as SJRA General Manager Under Pressure from Subsidence Deniers
Jace Houston, the San Jacinto River Authority’s (SJRA) General Manager and point person on subsidence issues, resigned yesterday, 5/25/23, to avert a political war with Montgomery County subsidence deniers that could have taken down the entire SJRA board.
Houston had been with the SJRA for 16 years after spending 10 years with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District. While at the SJRA, the lawyer/engineer helped put together a Groundwater Reduction Plan that included 80 municipalities and municipal utility districts (MUDs) across Montgomery County. He also helped the SJRA construct a surface-water treatment plant on Lake Conroe.
Goals of Effort to Preserve Groundwater
The half-billion dollar plant supplies surface water to the major population centers in Montgomery County, such as Conroe, The Woodlands and Oak Ridge North. Converting the population centers to surface water preserved groundwater for less populated and rural areas where water pipelines become uneconomical.
When the plant came online in 2015, it also virtually neutralized subsidence (see below).
What costs? When water levels in wells drop, suppliers must move pumps deeper and use more electricity to pump water to the surface. In extreme cases, utilities may not be able to get water to the surface at all. Then they must drill new wells, often into deeper aquifers at hefty costs.
Declining well levels are especially worrisome in drought years when/where no alternative sources of water are available. Lack of water can limit population and economic growth as well as agricultural production.
However, preserving groundwater came at a cost. All members of the plan paid a fee to help pay for the surface water treatment plant even if they didn’t buy water from it. The need for such a plan became apparent more than 20 years ago, long before Houston joined the SJRA.
Need to Use Less Groundwater Validated by Legislature, But…
The Texas Leglislature validated the need to use less groundwater when it created the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District (LSGCD) in 2001.
But in recent years, all that was forgotten. The LSGCD board denied subsidence was a problem and advocated unlimited groundwater pumping as a way to lower water costs.
In the meantime, subsidence has returned. So have water well declines.
As you can see below, since the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District began moving to deregulate groundwater usage, well levels have dropped significantly across the county, setting up a day of reckoning in the future.
A Shot Across the Bow of the Board
Undeterred by these signals, the City of Conroe and the LSGCD board took their fight to the state legislature. They got State Representative Will Metcalf of Conroe to propose an amendment to the SJRA Sunset Review Bill that would replace Jace Houston. The amendment passed and emboldened Metcalf, Conroe and the LSGCD.
The amended bill then went to the Senate Water, Agricultural and Rural Affairs Committee where the Conroe/LSGCD contingent testified again. But Senator Charles Perry, the committee chair, talked his fellow members out of adopting their proposals.
However, during the committee debate, Senator Lois Kolkorst, who represents Magnolia, fired a shot across the bow of the SJRA. She suggested making SJRA board-member terms one year.
That would have been disastrous, according to one seasoned SJRA board member, “It takes a year just to learn the job,” he said.
After defeat of all suggested amendments in Perry’s committee, it didn’t take long for back-channel rumors to mushroom. A whisper campaign suggested that sympathetic senator(s) might offer the Metcalf amendment or a one-year board amendment when the bill came up for a vote on the Senate floor.
Within days, the SJRA called a special board meeting to discuss Houston’s employment. While Houston reportedly had many supporters on the SJRA Board, he ultimately chose to resign and avoid a political battle royal that could have damaged the SJRA.
Board Accepts Houston’s Resignation
An article in Community Impact quoted SJRA Board President Ronald Anderson as saying: “At today’s meeting, the SJRA board of directors received and reluctantly accepted a resignation letter from our general manager, Jace Houston. Jace has served with honor and distinction for almost 16 years and has made the SJRA one of the most respected water agencies in the state of Texas.”
Anderson continued, “Even through these recent circumstances involving the legislature, Jace has once again placed the best interests of our organization and customers above his own, and the board wishes him the best in his future endeavors, which we know will be marked by continued success.”
Houston will remain at the SJRA until June 30th. But even on his way out the door, he seems less concerned about his own future than Montgomery County’s water future.
Impact of LSGCD on Water Future of MoCo and More
When asked about the impact of the LSGCD moves, Houston predicted, “They’re not going to regulate the aquifers. They’re going to allow pumpage to increase significantly.”
Houston added, “A lot of great work has been done to put a program together that allows Montgomery County to be able to afford the future water supplies it needs. And all of that is at risk. This just puts the county’s future at risk. They don’t understand the science. LSGCD is just dead wrong on the science.”
Because aquifers flow toward the coast, depleting groundwater in Montgomery County affects Harris and Galveston communities as well. But Metcalf and the LSGCD board never seemed to consider the impact on neighboring counties even though Metcalf’s district represents only about one thirtieth of the population in the San Jacinto watershed.
Because of differential subsidence, the impact of unlimited groundwater pumping in southern Montgomery County could actually tilt Lake Houston toward the north. That’s because the Kingwood/Porter area would subside more than the Lake Houston Dam by about two feet. And that could put many homes near floodplains into floodplains.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) should release new, updated models later this year that could affect the rates shown approve (plus or minus).
In the meantime, for anyone who doubts the relationship between water-well declines and subsidence, USGS has published a 432-page scientific report on the subject based on 120 years of data from northeast Texas aquifers.
Houston’s resignation seems to have averted a San Jacinto showdown for now. But some fear this fight isn’t over yet. Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of “As the Swamp Sinks.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/26/2023
2096 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.