The second half of this week will likely be very wet. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Weather Prediction Center forecasts widespread rain totaling 4″ with isolated areas getting 5- 6″ between Wednesday and Sunday.
Seven-day forecasted rain totals, predicted as of Monday morning 4/3/2023.
However, the rain will come in several waves and be spread out. The sporadic nature of the rainfall plus dry ground will minimize the risk of flash flooding. But some forecasters are already warning of possible street flooding, especially where storms cluster or train.
Timing of Rainfall
An upper level storm system will slow and eventually stall over the Houston area from Wednesday-Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage on Wednesday.
As the front slows and lingers just off the upper Texas coast, both the Gulf and Pacific will feed moisture into our area along the boundary. Moisture values will approach the maximum levels for early April by Thursday and Friday.
As the cold front transforms into a coastal trough along the coast or just inland, periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Friday.
Given the stalled system, repeat cell training will be possible which may quickly produce areas of heavy rainfall.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Runoff Will Increase As Ground Becomes Saturated
While it will not rain the entire period, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely. Expect 1-2 inches per day. And remain alert for cell clustering or training which could trigger street flooding.
Grounds are now very dry over the region and much of the rainfall should soak in. However, grounds will eventually become saturated and when they do, run-off will increase and so will the risk of street flooding.
Severe Weather Threat Low
At this time, the risk of severe weather remains low. The Weather Prediction Center rates our chances of flash flooding from excessive rainfall at less than 15% for both Wednesday/Thursday and Thursday/Friday. But monitor forecasts closely this week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/3/2023
2043 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/image001.png?fit=796%2C558&ssl=1558796adminadmin2023-04-03 11:03:562023-04-03 11:05:18Up to 6″ of Rain Possible by Weekend
Phases One and Two of two new developments on FM2090, Townsend Reserve and Presswoods, appear to have finished clearcutting and building stormwater retention basins. They are now building streets and homes along Gully Branch, which has been channelized through the developments in Splendora.
More than 1,000 Acres at Buildout
Together, the developments eventually comprise more than 1,000 acres at buildout.
Knock on deadwood. I’ve heard no complaints yet about neighbors being flooded. Please contact me, however, if you have information to the contrary.
Photos Taken on 4/2/2023
The photos below show the first 600 acres. Assuming six houses to the acre, the land you see below could soon hold approximately 3,600 homes.
But according to the Census Bureau, Splendora currently has a population of 1,780 people. And this real estate site says the city has 737 housing units.
So get ready for some change. These two developments could bring 10,000 new residents to Splendora, increasing the population more than 5X.
Looking SE from the midpoint of the two developments across the entry to Presswoods.Looking S from the same point.Gully Branch is now a drainage ditch that parallels the tree line that bisects the frame from L to R.Looking SW toward Townsend Reserve along FM2090.Looking E from over Townsend Reserve toward Presswoods. Note how Gully Branch has been channelizedand framed by stormwater retention basins.Farther east, still looking east toward US59 from over Presswoods.
For People with a Passion for Rural Living
The developments are all south of FM2090 opposite Splendora High School, Junior High and Piney Woods Elementary.
Presswoods seems to be developing faster than Townsend Reserve. DR Horton, the nation’s largest homebuilder is already selling homes in Presswoods. They range in size from 1.400 to 2.300 SF and in price from $220,000 to $300,000.
As I flew over this area today, I couldn’t help but wonder where all these new residents would shop. Splendora has several dollar stores, a small grocery store and some fast food. And growth will inevitably attract more retail. But the nearest major retail center is Valley Ranch, 10+ miles to the south.
Moving to areas like this requires a passion for rural life, a tolerance for long commutes, and a desire to stretch your housing dollar.
New Rainfall Estimates, Old Flood Maps
The drainage impact analyses for these developments are based on Atlas-14, but old flood maps. It’s not clear yet whether Montgomery County intends to update its flood maps for this area or when. The latest drainage criteria manual on the County’s Engineering website is dated 2019.
Before I bought a home here, I would want to make sure my house was elevated far above street level.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/2023
2042 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/20230402-DJI_0410.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2023-04-02 20:24:492023-04-03 08:14:35Homes Going Up on 600 Acres Along Gully Branch in Splendora
Only 31 of the 226 parking spots at the new Laurel Springs RV Resort appeared occupied today – despite deep grand-opening discounts, a record cold winter up North, and a few saplings planted on the 20+ acres of concrete.
Triangular dog park features one complimentary sapling for male dogs.Railroad tracks in trees in right. Looking NNW across RV Resort from over Laurel Springs Lane.
Nephew Izzy to the Rescue
Not even Nephew Izzy could understand it. “Uncle Bob, they don’t even have oil spots on the pavement yet! And look at all the privacy you could have.”
Izzy is a connoisseur of trailer and RV parks. He and his new girlfriend, Wanda June, a dancer down at the Crystal Pistol, grew up in them.
I asked, “Ya think it might have anything to do with trains running up and down those tracks all day and all night long, Izzy?”
“I could have that place filled up by next weekend, Uncle Bob.”
“How’s that?”
“I’d make Wanda June the check-in clerk. She packs them in down at the Crystal Pistol.”
“She does have a way with people. But desk clerks don’t get too many tips, Izzy.”
“I see your point, Uncle Bob. Could cut down on our income.”
Romance of the Railroad and Wide Open Spaces?
“Hey, how about if we give out free Johnny Cash tapes at check in? Capitalize on the romance of the railroad.”
“You mean like Folsom Prison Blues?”
“Yeah, that’s the ticket. Johnny Cash is awesome.”
“Hmmm. Maybe not the perfect choice,” said Izzy. Then brightening, “I know! I’d sell ‘Wide Open Spaces!'”
“Well, they certainly have lots of those.” A big pause.
“What’s wrong, Uncle Bob?”
“Do you think that will cause people to ask why no one’s there?”
“Maybe free hearing protectors?” asked Izzy without much conviction.
I guess I didn’t enthuse enough.
Izzy Has Second Thoughts For First Time in Life
“I think I better sleep on this, Uncle Bob”
“I think you better keep your job down at the Crystal Pistol, Izzy.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/1/23
2041 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/20230401-DJI_0371.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2023-04-01 19:46:492023-04-01 22:28:30Laurel Springs RV Resort 14% Occupied; Nephew Izzy Tries to Help
Up to 6″ of Rain Possible by Weekend
The second half of this week will likely be very wet. The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Weather Prediction Center forecasts widespread rain totaling 4″ with isolated areas getting 5- 6″ between Wednesday and Sunday.
However, the rain will come in several waves and be spread out. The sporadic nature of the rainfall plus dry ground will minimize the risk of flash flooding. But some forecasters are already warning of possible street flooding, especially where storms cluster or train.
Timing of Rainfall
An upper level storm system will slow and eventually stall over the Houston area from Wednesday-Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage on Wednesday.
As the front slows and lingers just off the upper Texas coast, both the Gulf and Pacific will feed moisture into our area along the boundary. Moisture values will approach the maximum levels for early April by Thursday and Friday.
As the cold front transforms into a coastal trough along the coast or just inland, periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Friday.
Runoff Will Increase As Ground Becomes Saturated
While it will not rain the entire period, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely. Expect 1-2 inches per day. And remain alert for cell clustering or training which could trigger street flooding.
Grounds are now very dry over the region and much of the rainfall should soak in. However, grounds will eventually become saturated and when they do, run-off will increase and so will the risk of street flooding.
Severe Weather Threat Low
At this time, the risk of severe weather remains low. The Weather Prediction Center rates our chances of flash flooding from excessive rainfall at less than 15% for both Wednesday/Thursday and Thursday/Friday. But monitor forecasts closely this week.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/3/2023
2043 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Homes Going Up on 600 Acres Along Gully Branch in Splendora
Phases One and Two of two new developments on FM2090, Townsend Reserve and Presswoods, appear to have finished clearcutting and building stormwater retention basins. They are now building streets and homes along Gully Branch, which has been channelized through the developments in Splendora.
More than 1,000 Acres at Buildout
Together, the developments eventually comprise more than 1,000 acres at buildout.
Knock on deadwood. I’ve heard no complaints yet about neighbors being flooded. Please contact me, however, if you have information to the contrary.
Photos Taken on 4/2/2023
The photos below show the first 600 acres. Assuming six houses to the acre, the land you see below could soon hold approximately 3,600 homes.
But according to the Census Bureau, Splendora currently has a population of 1,780 people. And this real estate site says the city has 737 housing units.
So get ready for some change. These two developments could bring 10,000 new residents to Splendora, increasing the population more than 5X.
For People with a Passion for Rural Living
The developments are all south of FM2090 opposite Splendora High School, Junior High and Piney Woods Elementary.
Presswoods seems to be developing faster than Townsend Reserve. DR Horton, the nation’s largest homebuilder is already selling homes in Presswoods. They range in size from 1.400 to 2.300 SF and in price from $220,000 to $300,000.
As I flew over this area today, I couldn’t help but wonder where all these new residents would shop. Splendora has several dollar stores, a small grocery store and some fast food. And growth will inevitably attract more retail. But the nearest major retail center is Valley Ranch, 10+ miles to the south.
Moving to areas like this requires a passion for rural life, a tolerance for long commutes, and a desire to stretch your housing dollar.
New Rainfall Estimates, Old Flood Maps
The drainage impact analyses for these developments are based on Atlas-14, but old flood maps. It’s not clear yet whether Montgomery County intends to update its flood maps for this area or when. The latest drainage criteria manual on the County’s
Engineering website is dated 2019.
Before I bought a home here, I would want to make sure my house was elevated far above street level.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/2023
2042 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Laurel Springs RV Resort 14% Occupied; Nephew Izzy Tries to Help
Only 31 of the 226 parking spots at the new Laurel Springs RV Resort appeared occupied today – despite deep grand-opening discounts, a record cold winter up North, and a few saplings planted on the 20+ acres of concrete.
Nephew Izzy to the Rescue
Not even Nephew Izzy could understand it. “Uncle Bob, they don’t even have oil spots on the pavement yet! And look at all the privacy you could have.”
Izzy is a connoisseur of trailer and RV parks. He and his new girlfriend, Wanda June, a dancer down at the Crystal Pistol, grew up in them.
I asked, “Ya think it might have anything to do with trains running up and down those tracks all day and all night long, Izzy?”
“I could have that place filled up by next weekend, Uncle Bob.”
“How’s that?”
“I’d make Wanda June the check-in clerk. She packs them in down at the Crystal Pistol.”
“She does have a way with people. But desk clerks don’t get too many tips, Izzy.”
“I see your point, Uncle Bob. Could cut down on our income.”
Romance of the Railroad and Wide Open Spaces?
“Hey, how about if we give out free Johnny Cash tapes at check in? Capitalize on the romance of the railroad.”
“You mean like Folsom Prison Blues?”
“Yeah, that’s the ticket. Johnny Cash is awesome.”
“Did you ever listen to the lyrics, Izzy?”
“I just hum along.”
“When I hear that whistle blowin’, I hang my head and cry,” I sang.
“Hmmm. Maybe not the perfect choice,” said Izzy. Then brightening, “I know! I’d sell ‘Wide Open Spaces!'”
“Well, they certainly have lots of those.” A big pause.
“What’s wrong, Uncle Bob?”
“Do you think that will cause people to ask why no one’s there?”
“Maybe free hearing protectors?” asked Izzy without much conviction.
I guess I didn’t enthuse enough.
Izzy Has Second Thoughts For First Time in Life
“I think I better sleep on this, Uncle Bob”
“I think you better keep your job down at the Crystal Pistol, Izzy.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/1/23
2041 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.