On March 9, 2023, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service (NWS) announced that La Niña conditions which persisted for 3-years have finally ended. But we are not shifting directly into El Niño. Instead, we’re entering a transitional phase. NWS expects neutral conditions to continue through the Northern Hemisphere into spring and early summer of 2023.
La Niña and El Niño represent opposite phases of what meteorologists call ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Pacific Ocean. They govern recurring climate patterns across the tropical Pacific and have a cascade of global side effects, says NWS.
The patterns shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years. This past La Niña phase lasted three years, an unusually long time.
NWS predicts that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue through the spring. The weather service also predicts El Niño conditions to form during summer 2023 and persist through the fall.
Impacts on Weather
The oscillation brings predictable shifts in ocean surface and atmospheric temperatures. These shifts disrupt the wind and rainfall patterns across the tropics.
El Niño brings cooler, wetter conditions to the southern U.S. in winter months. It also brings stronger steering currents that can disrupt low-pressure systems coming off the coast of Africa that turn into hurricanes.
La Niña, on the other hand, usually means less disruption, more Atlantic storms, and deeper droughts in the southern U.S. But we’re finally putting the most recent La Niña behind us.
ENSO Influence on Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasons
The continental United States and Caribbean Islands have a substantially decreased chance of experiencing a hurricane during El Niño and an increased chance of experiencing a hurricane during La Niña. These maps (by NOAA Climate.gov, based on originals by Gerry Bell) explain why.
Typical El Niño effects on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity.
Overall, El Niño contributes to more eastern and central Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic hurricanes. Conversely, La Niña contributes to fewer eastern and central Pacific hurricanes and more Atlantic hurricanes – exactly the opposite.
Typical La Niña effects on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity.
Other Influences on Hurricane Formation: AMO
NOAA also says that other oscillations, such as the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) also influence hurricane formation. Thewarm phase of the AMO is associated with warmer sea surface temperatures and high hurricane activity in the main development region of the Atlantic between Western Africa and the Caribbean.
“The hurricane activity in any given season often reflects a combination of the multi-decadal signals and ENSO,” says NOAA.
For More Information
For a fuller discussion of how El Niño and La Niña influence other aspects of weather worldwide, check out NOAA’s Climate.gov, especially the FAQ page.
Also, the Associated Press ran an interesting story this morning by Seth Borenstein. The headline: “La Nina, which worsens hurricanes and drought, is gone.”
Borenstein says NOAA gives El Niño a 60% chance of returning this fall. But there’s also a 5% chance that La Niña will return for an unprecedented fourth winter.
We should have more certainty in a few months.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/9/23
2018 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/El-Nino-Effects.jpg?fit=610%2C320&ssl=1320610adminadmin2023-03-09 13:30:112023-03-09 13:59:17NWS Says La Niña Has Ended, Likely Impact on Weather
While major cities and counties throughout Texas post maps and detailed descriptions of their road-bond spending and projects, Harris County does not.
In June 2022, County Commissioner Adrian Garcia pitched bonds for roads, parks and public safety totaling $1.2 billion. It included $900 million for roads, $200 million for parks and $100 million for public-safety infrastructure.
Commissioners Tom Ramsey and Jack Cagle tried to slow the bond offering down until projects could be identified, prioritized, and estimated. However, Garcia, with the help of Commissioner Rodney Ellis and County Judge Lina Hidalgo, put the bond on the November ballot and it passed with little disclosure.
A series of poorly advertised and attended public meetings provided no details as to how the money would be spent except for some high-level breakdowns between roads and parks. Neither did the bond website – despite promises made in Commissioners Court that it would.
Nine months later, Harris County still has not provided any details.
Rahman Presentation to ACEC Now Public
Dr. Milton Rahman, P.E., PMP, CFM, ENV SP., Executive Director and County Engineer did provide a project update earlier this month about the bond to the American Council of Engineering Companies (ACEC) Houston. However, it provided only a little more detail than we already knew about how the money would be allocated. And it provided no location-specific data about where the money would be spent, i.e., which stretches of roads.
Looking only at transportation and drainage (second table), Precinct 3 will receive approximately $70 to $90 million less than Precincts 1 and 2and $40 less than Precinct 4.
To qualify for any funding, roads must have a Pavement Condition Index below 40 (very poor to failing). But in scoring, roads will also be ranked by their surrounding population and the number of socially vulnerable residents. (See below).
The road bond was broken up into five different segments; this was one.For those other criteria, see the slide below.Note references to population and social vulnerability. Rahman did not specify the weights given to these other factors.
Rahman did assign weights to partnership dollars, but he fails to define the factors. For instance, what does he mean by “project area” below? It gets a whopping 25% of the weight.
In short, he still won’t say wherethe money will go.
11X More for Admin than in Flood Bond 5X Larger
But Dr. Rahman does plan to take $110 million for management and administration. Compare that to the $10 million allocated for admin in 2018 flood bond that totaled $5 billion with partner funding. Dr. Rahman will take 11 times more for a bond one-fifth the size. It’s even more than the $100 million being invested in public-safety facilities which were so sorely in need of help before the election!
The County disclosed none of this to voters before they voted on the bond.
Even now, five months later, with the little information we have, I would find it impossible to make an informed decision based on this vague, high-level, process-oriented information presented by Dr. Rahman. But I do have deep suspicions that the $110 million could go to pay raises for political hires.
Rahman Withholding Pavement Condition Information
Even though Harris County has calculated a Pavement Condition Index (PCI) for every road in the county, it has not published the information. Nor did the Engineering Department supply the PCI report to ReduceFlooding.com in response to a direct request.
And even through Dr. Rahmen has already allocated the money, nowhere in his report does he address the number of lane miles needing repair in each precinct.
Other Oddities
For the record, Precinct 3 will receive the least money by far. It has almost half the county’s lane miles to maintain (47%) but will receive less than one-fifth of the bond money allocated to roads and drainage.
Moreover, large portions of Precincts 1 and 2 fall within the City of Houston and other municipalities such as Pasadena and Baytown. Thus they share responsibility and costs.
Finally, before redistricting, Commissioner Garcia made sure that most of the bad roads in his Precinct 2 magically wound up in Precinct 3.
With all the other factors folded in, there’s no guarantee most of Precinct 3’s roads will ever see 2022 road bond money.
Other Areas Far More Transparent
Because of the complexity of allocating bond dollars, virtually all major cities and counties in Texas simply publish maps that show where bond money will go.
But not in Harris County! That would be too simple. And why be transparent when you can keep people in the dark and avoid complaints about fairness?
To see how transparently other areas treat their voters, consult the links below.
When governments go out of their way to conceal information as certain commissioners have here, it raises the question “Why?”
It’s time you started demanding answers to that question. Your safety is at stake.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/8/23
2017 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/20230308-Screenshot-2023-03-08-at-6.24.35-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=16741200adminadmin2023-03-08 20:50:492023-03-08 23:44:44Other Areas Disclose Road-Bond Spending Details, But Not Harris County
The Preserve at Woodridge website indicates that the developer, Guefen, will begin leasing spacious, 763 SF, 1-bedroom, 1-bath, luxury homes beginning March 16, 2023 … for only $1365 per month. Even more spacious, 1388-SF homes will begin leasing later at just $2145 per month.
The marketing theme: “There’s room for you at Preserve at Woodridge.”
According to the website, luxury units in the Preserve offer “unparalleled amenities,” such as backyards, toilets, tubs, sinks and on-street parking – with a $0 deposit. A few lucky renters will even have the option of reserved, covered parking spots for an undisclosed fee.
But the biggest plus? Some units have enough grass for a lawn chair.
65% Impervious Cover?
Engineers claim the detention pond will hold a 100-year rain that falls in 24-hours. But they also based their calculations on 65% impervious cover. The photos below show that may have been understated.
The higher the percentage of impervious cover, the more runoff you have and the larger the stormwater detention basin you need.
It will be interesting to see how these homes fare when FEMA releases new flood maps later this year.
Oh well. Too late now!
Photos Taken March 3, 2023
The pictures show how close the homes are to completion…and each other.
Overview of Preserve at Woodridge, looking east over Woodridge Parkway.The grand entry near Woodridge Parkway built around a community pool. Those elongated structures are shared garage spaces, but most of the parking will be on-street.You’ll have to share those spacious back yards with an air conditioning unit, but you’ll have a concrete patio in case grass doesn’t grow in the shade.Twelve lucky homes will have a view of the stormwater detention basin which will hold water permanently.
With luck, the waterfront residents might even be able to shag some foul balls from the Kingwood Park High School baseball fields across the ditch.
Will Proximity of Homes be a Pro or Con?
Psychological research has documented strong positive associations between interpersonal closeness and social decisions such as cooperative behavior and trust. From that perspective, perhaps housing like this is the wave of the future.
On the other hand, overcrowding can lead to psychological distress. That, in turn, has an effect on behavior and the ability to cope with conditions. Researchers have linked lack of privacy to depression and other negative psychological consequences. But hey. It can’t be more crowded than New York.
This is a new model for development – a whole community of homes separated by only 4-5 feet. Only time will tell whether the pros outweigh the cons.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/7/2023
2016 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/20230304-DJI_0206.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2023-03-07 16:17:132023-03-07 17:40:19“Spacious” 763-SF Homes Available March 16
NWS Says La Niña Has Ended, Likely Impact on Weather
On March 9, 2023, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service (NWS) announced that La Niña conditions which persisted for 3-years have finally ended. But we are not shifting directly into El Niño. Instead, we’re entering a transitional phase. NWS expects neutral conditions to continue through the Northern Hemisphere into spring and early summer of 2023.
La Niña and El Niño represent opposite phases of what meteorologists call ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Pacific Ocean. They govern recurring climate patterns across the tropical Pacific and have a cascade of global side effects, says NWS.
The patterns shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years. This past La Niña phase lasted three years, an unusually long time.
NWS predicts that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue through the spring. The weather service also predicts El Niño conditions to form during summer 2023 and persist through the fall.
Impacts on Weather
The oscillation brings predictable shifts in ocean surface and atmospheric temperatures. These shifts disrupt the wind and rainfall patterns across the tropics.
El Niño brings cooler, wetter conditions to the southern U.S. in winter months. It also brings stronger steering currents that can disrupt low-pressure systems coming off the coast of Africa that turn into hurricanes.
La Niña, on the other hand, usually means less disruption, more Atlantic storms, and deeper droughts in the southern U.S. But we’re finally putting the most recent La Niña behind us.
ENSO Influence on Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasons
The continental United States and Caribbean Islands have a substantially decreased chance of experiencing a hurricane during El Niño and an increased chance of experiencing a hurricane during La Niña. These maps (by NOAA Climate.gov, based on originals by Gerry Bell) explain why.
Overall, El Niño contributes to more eastern and central Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic hurricanes. Conversely, La Niña contributes to fewer eastern and central Pacific hurricanes and more Atlantic hurricanes – exactly the opposite.
Other Influences on Hurricane Formation: AMO
NOAA also says that other oscillations, such as the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) also influence hurricane formation. The warm phase of the AMO is associated with warmer sea surface temperatures and high hurricane activity in the main development region of the Atlantic between Western Africa and the Caribbean.
“The hurricane activity in any given season often reflects a combination of the multi-decadal signals and ENSO,” says NOAA.
For More Information
For a fuller discussion of how El Niño and La Niña influence other aspects of weather worldwide, check out NOAA’s Climate.gov, especially the FAQ page.
Also, the Associated Press ran an interesting story this morning by Seth Borenstein. The headline: “La Nina, which worsens hurricanes and drought, is gone.”
Borenstein says NOAA gives El Niño a 60% chance of returning this fall. But there’s also a 5% chance that La Niña will return for an unprecedented fourth winter.
We should have more certainty in a few months.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/9/23
2018 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Other Areas Disclose Road-Bond Spending Details, But Not Harris County
While major cities and counties throughout Texas post maps and detailed descriptions of their road-bond spending and projects, Harris County does not.
In June 2022, County Commissioner Adrian Garcia pitched bonds for roads, parks and public safety totaling $1.2 billion. It included $900 million for roads, $200 million for parks and $100 million for public-safety infrastructure.
Commissioners Tom Ramsey and Jack Cagle tried to slow the bond offering down until projects could be identified, prioritized, and estimated. However, Garcia, with the help of Commissioner Rodney Ellis and County Judge Lina Hidalgo, put the bond on the November ballot and it passed with little disclosure.
A series of poorly advertised and attended public meetings provided no details as to how the money would be spent except for some high-level breakdowns between roads and parks. Neither did the bond website – despite promises made in Commissioners Court that it would.
Rahman Presentation to ACEC Now Public
Dr. Milton Rahman, P.E., PMP, CFM, ENV SP., Executive Director and County Engineer did provide a project update earlier this month about the bond to the American Council of Engineering Companies (ACEC) Houston. However, it provided only a little more detail than we already knew about how the money would be allocated. And it provided no location-specific data about where the money would be spent, i.e., which stretches of roads.
Below are several key slides from Dr. Rahman’s full presentation.
To qualify for any funding, roads must have a Pavement Condition Index below 40 (very poor to failing). But in scoring, roads will also be ranked by their surrounding population and the number of socially vulnerable residents. (See below).
Rahman did assign weights to partnership dollars, but he fails to define the factors. For instance, what does he mean by “project area” below? It gets a whopping 25% of the weight.
In short, he still won’t say where the money will go.
11X More for Admin than in Flood Bond 5X Larger
But Dr. Rahman does plan to take $110 million for management and administration. Compare that to the $10 million allocated for admin in 2018 flood bond that totaled $5 billion with partner funding. Dr. Rahman will take 11 times more for a bond one-fifth the size. It’s even more than the $100 million being invested in public-safety facilities which were so sorely in need of help before the election!
Even now, five months later, with the little information we have, I would find it impossible to make an informed decision based on this vague, high-level, process-oriented information presented by Dr. Rahman. But I do have deep suspicions that the $110 million could go to pay raises for political hires.
Rahman Withholding Pavement Condition Information
Even though Harris County has calculated a Pavement Condition Index (PCI) for every road in the county, it has not published the information. Nor did the Engineering Department supply the PCI report to ReduceFlooding.com in response to a direct request.
And even through Dr. Rahmen has already allocated the money, nowhere in his report does he address the number of lane miles needing repair in each precinct.
Other Oddities
For the record, Precinct 3 will receive the least money by far. It has almost half the county’s lane miles to maintain (47%) but will receive less than one-fifth of the bond money allocated to roads and drainage.
Moreover, large portions of Precincts 1 and 2 fall within the City of Houston and other municipalities such as Pasadena and Baytown. Thus they share responsibility and costs.
Finally, before redistricting, Commissioner Garcia made sure that most of the bad roads in his Precinct 2 magically wound up in Precinct 3.
With all the other factors folded in, there’s no guarantee most of Precinct 3’s roads will ever see 2022 road bond money.
Other Areas Far More Transparent
Because of the complexity of allocating bond dollars, virtually all major cities and counties in Texas simply publish maps that show where bond money will go.
But not in Harris County! That would be too simple. And why be transparent when you can keep people in the dark and avoid complaints about fairness?
To see how transparently other areas treat their voters, consult the links below.
When governments go out of their way to conceal information as certain commissioners have here, it raises the question “Why?”
It’s time you started demanding answers to that question. Your safety is at stake.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/8/23
2017 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
“Spacious” 763-SF Homes Available March 16
The Preserve at Woodridge website indicates that the developer, Guefen, will begin leasing spacious, 763 SF, 1-bedroom, 1-bath, luxury homes beginning March 16, 2023 … for only $1365 per month. Even more spacious, 1388-SF homes will begin leasing later at just $2145 per month.
According to the website, luxury units in the Preserve offer “unparalleled amenities,” such as backyards, toilets, tubs, sinks and on-street parking – with a $0 deposit. A few lucky renters will even have the option of reserved, covered parking spots for an undisclosed fee.
But the biggest plus? Some units have enough grass for a lawn chair.
65% Impervious Cover?
Engineers claim the detention pond will hold a 100-year rain that falls in 24-hours. But they also based their calculations on 65% impervious cover. The photos below show that may have been understated.
The higher the percentage of impervious cover, the more runoff you have and the larger the stormwater detention basin you need.
It will be interesting to see how these homes fare when FEMA releases new flood maps later this year.
Oh well. Too late now!
Photos Taken March 3, 2023
The pictures show how close the homes are to completion…and each other.
With luck, the waterfront residents might even be able to shag some foul balls from the Kingwood Park High School baseball fields across the ditch.
Will Proximity of Homes be a Pro or Con?
Psychological research has documented strong positive associations between interpersonal closeness and social decisions such as cooperative behavior and trust. From that perspective, perhaps housing like this is the wave of the future.
On the other hand, overcrowding can lead to psychological distress. That, in turn, has an effect on behavior and the ability to cope with conditions. Researchers have linked lack of privacy to depression and other negative psychological consequences. But hey. It can’t be more crowded than New York.
This is a new model for development – a whole community of homes separated by only 4-5 feet. Only time will tell whether the pros outweigh the cons.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/7/2023
2016 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.