What a difference a day makes! Yesterday, the Atlantic Basin had four areas of concern. Today, it has five. And, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the chances of tropical development have increased for all of them since yesterday. See the seven-day outlook for the Atlantic Basin below and note the time: Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 3:35 Eastern time.
The NHC diagram below shows a veritable parade of potential storms marching from Africa toward the Americas.
Lowdown on the Lows
Starting with the yellow area moving off the coast of Western Africa:
Yellow Area on Right
A tropical wave located near the western coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the next several days. Formation chance through 7 days…still low…20 percent.
Red Area with X
The red cross-hatched area to the left of the yellow is a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for further development. A short-lived tropical depression will likely form this weekend and move west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is not expected. Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.
TD #6
Tropical Depression #6 formed in the central, tropical Atlantic this afternoon. The system will move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, upper-level winds will become increasingly unfavorable by late this weekend, so NHC does not anticipate any further development.
Orange Area Entering Caribbean
A broad area of low pressure has formed near the Windward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could form by early next week when the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.
Orange Area Entering Gulf
An area of disturbed weather located near the Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week where a broad area of low pressure will form. Some slow development is possible thereafter. A tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week. The storm will likely make landfall in South Texas and bring little rainfall to the Houston area north of I-10. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.
Satellite Image Shows Current Conditions in Gulf and Eastern Pacific
The last area represents the most imminent threat to Texas. Here’s what it looks like in a satellite image. Not very impressive at the moment, especially compared to Hurricane Hilary in the Pacific (on the left).
Conditions can change rapidly so prepare and stay aware.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/19/23 based on information from the NHC
2181 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/two_atl_7d0-1.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2023-08-19 17:07:232023-08-19 17:59:04Tropics Show More Activity, Higher Probabilities since Yesterday
Update as of 6:30 PM: Outbound lanes have opened. One inbound lane open. Utility crews onsite.
Northpark Drive is closed in the worst possible place at the worst possible time – Friday night during rush hour in a construction zone. However, the accident that caused the closure is not related to construction.
A little before 3 PM, I got a tip about an accident at Russell-Palmer Road from Ralph De Leon, the project manager for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority’s Northpark Drive expansion project. He said that a truck had clipped a power pole and wires were down.
By the time I got there with my drone, police and fire trucks had Northpark closed off in both directions between Woodridge Drive and Russell-Palmer. However, I got my drone up from the parking lot of St. Martha’s Catholic Church to get the shots below. That was the easy part.
Getting home (about 2 miles away) took almost 45 minutes.
Bob Rehak
If you have a family member coming into Kingwood during the Friday evening rush hour, warn them to pack their patience. Utility lines are down across the road in BOTH directions.
According to De Leon, Northpark will be closed until the utility company can assess and repair the problem. That could take hours. It will be difficult just to get to the area. Avoid it at all costs.
Photos Taken at 3PM
Looking east along Northpark over Russell-Palmer.Note emergency vehicles blocking inbound traffic.One utility pole has snapped and another one across Northpark appears to be leaning. However, that could be a shadow.
It’s not clear whether the utility lines carry communications or electricity. The downed line in the photo below is next to a power pole; you can tell by the transformer. So it may be a communications line.
The utility line appears to be caught on an eighteen wheeler blocking the inbound lanes.The downed lines stretch from the truck to a snapped pole, across the ditch and then across the outbound lanes.
The inbound traffic was being funneled south on Russell-Palmer toward Kingwood Drive. See below.
The utility pole is snapped in half.Here you can see the lines tangled on the truck.It’s unclear whether the truck struck the pole.West of Russell-Palmer Traffic is backed up to 59 and maybe beyond.
People trying to enter Kingwood through back streets will find the slogging tough. Everyone who normally uses Northpark is trying to squeeze through stop signs not designed to handle this volume of traffic.
Stay away. If you simply can’t, pack your patience.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4:30pm on 8/18/23
2180 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230818-DJI_0355.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-18 16:45:182023-08-18 18:59:58Pack Your Patience: Accident Closes Northpark in Both Directions
Still three weeks from the peak of hurricane season (September 10), the tropical forecast has suddenly become more active. The latest seven-day outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows four areas of concern. Two will not affect the Texas Gulf Coast. Eventually, the other two could get close.
The red area at the right currently has a 70% chance of tropical formation in the next seven days.
The orange area has a 40% chance. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for further development of this system, but a tropical depression could still form during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
Neither of those systems poses a threat to Texas.
The yellow area in the middle approaching the Lesser Antilles has a 30% chance of formation.
The yellow area on the left will move toward the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. It also has a 30% chance of tropical formation.
The NHC updates its website several times a day during hurricane season. So bookmark it and check back often for the latest forecasts.
Local Impact Felt by Next Tuesday
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, has been sending out updates all week long on the last system. Here’s what he had to say on Friday morning, 8/18/23. “A low chance of tropical cyclone formation remains possible over the western Gulf early to mid next week.”
“A tropical wave will reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend. As high pressure over Texas lifts northward and centers over the Midwest early next week, this wave will continue westward and approach the Texas coast by Tuesday or Wednesday,” said Lindner.
Possibilities include a tropical wave, tropical depression, or weak tropical storm moving inland along the lower or middle Texas coast. Conditions appear to be generally favorable for some slow development, but dry air is lurking along the U.S. Gulf coast that could wrap into any developing system. Also any developing system could encounter wind shear over the western Gulf from the outflow of powerful Hurricane Hilary in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Any Development Most Likely Near Coast
“With that said, the system will be moving over warm sea surface temperatures and systems, especially in the NW Gulf under the right conditions can tighten up just prior to landfall. This may be a situation where whatever is going to happen with any development occurs very near the coast,” said Lindner.
Most Moisture Near Coast and West of Houston
Lindner concludes, “Regardless of development, tropical moisture will surge into the Texas coast as early as late Monday, but more likely Tuesday or Wednesday. For now, the greatest moisture looks to remain along and south of the I-10 corridor with areas north of I-10 still under the influence of the high pressure ridge over the Midwest. There will likely be a strong gradient in rain chances from south to north over the area next week with the potential for some desperately needed rainfall across the coastal locations.”
Subsiding air from the high to the north will determine how far inland the moisture and rain/bands reach. This map from the National Weather Service (NWS) helps visualize what the situation will look like by Monday, August 21.
Flood Risk Less than 5%
The risk of excessive rainfall that could cause flash flooding is less than 5% according to the NWS.
It’s pretty sad when you start wishing for a tropical storm. But we sure could use something to break the drought and cool us off. Yesterday’s high of 105 was the highest temp recorded in Houston since 1909, according to ABC13. And it could get close to that again today.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/18/23
2180 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/two_atl_7d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2023-08-18 09:58:232023-08-18 10:12:04Tropical Forecast Suddenly More Active
Tropics Show More Activity, Higher Probabilities since Yesterday
What a difference a day makes! Yesterday, the Atlantic Basin had four areas of concern. Today, it has five. And, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the chances of tropical development have increased for all of them since yesterday. See the seven-day outlook for the Atlantic Basin below and note the time: Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 3:35 Eastern time.
The NHC diagram below shows a veritable parade of potential storms marching from Africa toward the Americas.
Lowdown on the Lows
Starting with the yellow area moving off the coast of Western Africa:
Yellow Area on Right
A tropical wave located near the western coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the next several days. Formation chance through 7 days…still low…20 percent.
Red Area with X
The red cross-hatched area to the left of the yellow is a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for further development. A short-lived tropical depression will likely form this weekend and move west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is not expected. Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.
TD #6
Tropical Depression #6 formed in the central, tropical Atlantic this afternoon. The system will move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, upper-level winds will become increasingly unfavorable by late this weekend, so NHC does not anticipate any further development.
Orange Area Entering Caribbean
A broad area of low pressure has formed near the Windward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could form by early next week when the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.
Orange Area Entering Gulf
An area of disturbed weather located near the Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week where a broad area of low pressure will form. Some slow development is possible thereafter. A tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week. The storm will likely make landfall in South Texas and bring little rainfall to the Houston area north of I-10. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.
Satellite Image Shows Current Conditions in Gulf and Eastern Pacific
The last area represents the most imminent threat to Texas. Here’s what it looks like in a satellite image. Not very impressive at the moment, especially compared to Hurricane Hilary in the Pacific (on the left).
Conditions can change rapidly so prepare and stay aware.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/19/23 based on information from the NHC
2181 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Pack Your Patience: Accident Closes Northpark in Both Directions
Update as of 6:30 PM: Outbound lanes have opened. One inbound lane open. Utility crews onsite.
Northpark Drive is closed in the worst possible place at the worst possible time – Friday night during rush hour in a construction zone. However, the accident that caused the closure is not related to construction.
A little before 3 PM, I got a tip about an accident at Russell-Palmer Road from Ralph De Leon, the project manager for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority’s Northpark Drive expansion project. He said that a truck had clipped a power pole and wires were down.
By the time I got there with my drone, police and fire trucks had Northpark closed off in both directions between Woodridge Drive and Russell-Palmer. However, I got my drone up from the parking lot of St. Martha’s Catholic Church to get the shots below. That was the easy part.
If you have a family member coming into Kingwood during the Friday evening rush hour, warn them to pack their patience. Utility lines are down across the road in BOTH directions.
According to De Leon, Northpark will be closed until the utility company can assess and repair the problem. That could take hours. It will be difficult just to get to the area. Avoid it at all costs.
Photos Taken at 3PM
It’s not clear whether the utility lines carry communications or electricity. The downed line in the photo below is next to a power pole; you can tell by the transformer. So it may be a communications line.
The inbound traffic was being funneled south on Russell-Palmer toward Kingwood Drive. See below.
People trying to enter Kingwood through back streets will find the slogging tough. Everyone who normally uses Northpark is trying to squeeze through stop signs not designed to handle this volume of traffic.
Stay away. If you simply can’t, pack your patience.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4:30pm on 8/18/23
2180 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Tropical Forecast Suddenly More Active
Still three weeks from the peak of hurricane season (September 10), the tropical forecast has suddenly become more active. The latest seven-day outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows four areas of concern. Two will not affect the Texas Gulf Coast. Eventually, the other two could get close.
Chances of Tropical Formation
According to the NHC 8 a.m. update:
The NHC updates its website several times a day during hurricane season. So bookmark it and check back often for the latest forecasts.
Local Impact Felt by Next Tuesday
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, has been sending out updates all week long on the last system. Here’s what he had to say on Friday morning, 8/18/23. “A low chance of tropical cyclone formation remains possible over the western Gulf early to mid next week.”
“A tropical wave will reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend. As high pressure over Texas lifts northward and centers over the Midwest early next week, this wave will continue westward and approach the Texas coast by Tuesday or Wednesday,” said Lindner.
Possibilities include a tropical wave, tropical depression, or weak tropical storm moving inland along the lower or middle Texas coast. Conditions appear to be generally favorable for some slow development, but dry air is lurking along the U.S. Gulf coast that could wrap into any developing system. Also any developing system could encounter wind shear over the western Gulf from the outflow of powerful Hurricane Hilary in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Any Development Most Likely Near Coast
“With that said, the system will be moving over warm sea surface temperatures and systems, especially in the NW Gulf under the right conditions can tighten up just prior to landfall. This may be a situation where whatever is going to happen with any development occurs very near the coast,” said Lindner.
Most Moisture Near Coast and West of Houston
Lindner concludes, “Regardless of development, tropical moisture will surge into the Texas coast as early as late Monday, but more likely Tuesday or Wednesday. For now, the greatest moisture looks to remain along and south of the I-10 corridor with areas north of I-10 still under the influence of the high pressure ridge over the Midwest. There will likely be a strong gradient in rain chances from south to north over the area next week with the potential for some desperately needed rainfall across the coastal locations.”
Subsiding air from the high to the north will determine how far inland the moisture and rain/bands reach. This map from the National Weather Service (NWS) helps visualize what the situation will look like by Monday, August 21.
Flood Risk Less than 5%
The risk of excessive rainfall that could cause flash flooding is less than 5% according to the NWS.
It’s pretty sad when you start wishing for a tropical storm. But we sure could use something to break the drought and cool us off. Yesterday’s high of 105 was the highest temp recorded in Houston since 1909, according to ABC13. And it could get close to that again today.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/18/23
2180 Days since Hurricane Harvey