Hurricane season starts this week. Offsetting factors, some of which would call for an above-normal hurricane season and others of which would call for a below-normal season, led forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center to split the difference in their seasonal outlook.
They are giving almost equal probabilities to average, above-average, and below-average seasons. But average gets a slight edge. See below.
NOAA predicts 12 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
2023 Hurricane Season Names
Below is a list of storm names for this hurricane season.
Source: National Hurricane Center
Competing Factors Make Forecast Difficult
Competing factors both suppress and encourage storm formation.
The last two factors have produced more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, according to NOAA.
New Policies, Models, Technologies Will Improve Future Forecasts
To improve forecasts, NOAA is adopting new policies, forecasting models and technologies this year. Improvements include:
In late June, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will become operational. HAFS will become NOAA’s primary hurricane model. Compared to previous models, it improves track forecasts 10-15%.
A Probabilistic Storm Surge model upgrade gives forecasters the ability to run the model for two storms simultaneously.
The National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook graphics will expand the forecast range from five to seven days.
Over the last 10 years, flooding from tropical rainfall was the single deadliest hazard. To give communities more time to prepare, the Weather Prediction Center is also extending the Excessive Rainfall Outlook two days. It will now provide forecasts up to five days in advance. The outlook shows general areas at risk for flash flooding due to excessive rainfall.
The National Weather Service will unveil a new generation of forecast flood inundation mapping for portions of Texas in September 2023. These maps will show the extent of flooding at the street level.
Upgrades to the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoy array will provide new capabilities, updated instruments, more strategic placement of buoys, and more detailed observations.
NOAA emphasizes that its hurricane forecast is not a landfall forecast. Many storms die at sea and never reach land.
Peak of Season Still Three Months Away, But…
The Climate Prediction Center will update the 2023 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
And minutes after I first posted this story, the National Hurricane Center issued this 7-day outlook. It shows a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico trying to get organized. But the chances of tropical formation are slim: 10% in the next two days and 20% in the next seven.
So remain alert and prepared.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/2023
2100 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2023-Pie-052422-NOAA.jpg?fit=856%2C529&ssl=1529856adminadmin2023-05-30 12:00:152023-05-30 14:26:59NHC Predicts Near Normal Hurricane Season
It excels at generating high-level summaries of issues. And it allows you to drill down somewhat to explore different aspects of topics. But as you get more specific, it can also give you erroneous information. Here’s an example.
The Texas General Land Office has been in the headlines ever since Harvey. So I asked ChatGPT…
Q: What role does the Texas General Land Office play in reducing flooding?
ChatGPT Answered: “The Texas General Land Office (GLO) plays a crucial role in reducing flooding and managing flood-related issues in the state of Texas. The GLO has several responsibilities and initiatives aimed at mitigating flood risks and enhancing resilience. Here are some key roles and activities of the Texas General Land Office in flood reduction:
Disaster Recovery and Mitigation: The GLO oversees disaster recovery efforts and manages federal funds allocated for disaster mitigation in Texas, including those related to flooding. The GLO administers programs and provides financial assistance to local communities for flood mitigation projects, infrastructure improvements, and floodplain management initiatives.
Floodplain Management: The GLO supports and promotes effective floodplain management practices in Texas. It works with local governments, communities, and stakeholders to develop and implement floodplain regulations, zoning ordinances, and floodplain mapping to guide development and reduce flood risks.
Texas Coastal Resiliency Master Plan: The GLO is involved in developing and implementing the Texas Coastal Resiliency Master Plan, which focuses on addressing flood risks, coastal erosion, and storm surge impacts along the Texas coast. The plan includes strategies for enhancing flood protection, preserving coastal ecosystems, and promoting sustainable development practices.
Coastal Barrier System: The GLO is responsible for managing the Texas Coastal Barrier System, which includes the construction and maintenance of levees, floodgates, and other infrastructure to protect coastal communities from storm surge and flooding. This system aims to reduce the vulnerability of populated areas along the Texas coast to hurricane-related flooding.
Grant Programs and Funding: The GLO administers various grant programs to provide funding assistance for flood-related projects. This includes programs such as the Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF), Community Development Block Grants (CDBG), and Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) programs, which offer financial support for flood mitigation, infrastructure improvements, and post-disaster recovery.
Outreach and Education: The GLO conducts outreach and educational initiatives to raise awareness about flood risks, floodplain management, and resilience strategies. It provides resources, guidance, and training to local communities, property owners, and stakeholders to promote flood awareness and preparedness.
Coordination with Stakeholders: The GLO collaborates with federal, state, and local agencies, as well as community organizations, non-profits, and stakeholders involved in flood management and mitigation. This includes coordinating efforts, sharing information, and facilitating partnerships to enhance flood reduction strategies and improve coordination during flood events.
The Texas General Land Office’s efforts in flood reduction are aimed at safeguarding communities, protecting natural resources, and enhancing the state’s resilience to flooding and other related hazards. By supporting mitigation projects, implementing floodplain management strategies, and facilitating recovery and funding assistance, the GLO plays a critical role in reducing flood risks and promoting sustainable development in Texas.
End of ChatGPT Response
GLO Asked to Evaluate ChatGPT Response
That sounded a bit off to me. So I asked a GLO employee in public affairs to:
Give the response a letter grade from A-F
Evaluate the accuracy of the response
Identify any critical errors or omissions.
GLO Response Reveals Some Misses
My GLO source responded almost immediately. I’ll start with her conclusion. She said, “Luckily, I don’t fear losing my job to AI yet after reading this. 😊”
Then she explained some of the problems:
“I would say FEMA does floodplain management strategies more than the GLO,” she said. “However, FEMA data about floodplains is used by HUD to develop rules for grants.” Note that the GLO is the primary vehicle for distributing HUD funds in Texas.
“As for the Coastal Barrier System,” she continued, “that is tricky. We are the state sponsor, but there are many partners, so I am not sure if the word “managing” is correct or not.”
“This one is the most incorrect:
Grant Programs and Funding: The GLO administers various grant programs to provide funding assistance for flood-related projects. This includes programs such as the Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF), Community Development Block Grants (CDBG), and Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) programs, which offer financial support for flood mitigation, infrastructure improvements, and post-disaster recovery.
“Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) and Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) are Texas Water Development Board programs, not GLO’s. GLO does CDBG-DR and CDBG-MIT grants, which are used to address unmet housing needs (DR) and flood mitigation projects (MIT), but we do not do CDBG funds, which are annual entitlement funds from HUD and very different.
“The biggest glaring error is there is no mention of housing recovery or helping homeowners. I won’t fail ChatGPT, but it definitely requires editing and oversight.”
ChatGPT Hits Some Walls
In addition to errors like those above, sometimes ChatGPT just plain hits a wall and refuses to provide answers. For instance, it:
Currently contains no information past 2021. That limits its usefulness when seeking information about current events. It also limits usefulness for people in certain professions, such as news reporting.
Refuses to address personal or reputation issues.
Can’t provide answers to specific questions that require professional expertise. For instance, I tried to get ChatGPT to quantify the relative effectiveness of various flood control techniques. It responded that it depended on local conditions and suggested hiring a professional engineer. In fairness, that’s a good answer. But it does acknowledge the limits of the program.
Didn’t acknowledge the existence of ReduceFlooding.com, saying “it could be fictional or newly established” when I asked “What is ReduceFlooding.com?” However, Google ranks ReduceFlooding.com #6 in the world when asked “How do I reduce flooding?” In contrast, the Harris County Flood Control District’s website showed up at #26.
Putting ChatGPT in Perspective
ChatGPT is an impressive tool. But it’s only one tool in the tool box. You wouldn’t use a saw when you needed a hammer. Understand the best uses of ChatGPT, such as providing high-level outlines or introductions to topics, and you won’t be disappointed.
In short, it’s part of the answer, but not the answer. And as they say on every airplane before takeoff, “cross-check and verify all the doors.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/29/23
2099 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Flooded-Sign.jpg?fit=936%2C590&ssl=1590936adminadmin2023-05-29 13:54:452023-05-29 14:47:26ChatGPT Misses on Some Aspects of Flood-Control
Second in a series on ChatGPT and Flood-Mitigation Recommendations
Yesterday, I posted ChatGPT’s recommendations on the most effective techniques for flood control. The artificial-intelligence research tool compiled an impressive list, later validated by experts in the field. But they all said the recommendations were high-level. So I conducted another test in which I drilled down into various aspects of the topic.
Q. “What are best management practices in construction that help reduce flooding?”
A. “Implementing best management practices (BMPs) in construction can help minimize the impact of construction activities on stormwater runoff and reduce the risk of flooding. Here are some key BMPs commonly used to address stormwater management and flood reduction in construction:
Sediment and Erosion Control: Implementing measures to prevent sediment and erosion is crucial in construction sites. This includes installing erosion control devices such as sediment barriers, silt fences, and sediment basins. These structures help contain sediment on-site and prevent it from entering stormwater runoff, which can clog drainage systems and contribute to downstream flooding.
Stormwater Management Plans: Developing and following a comprehensive stormwater management plan is essential. It should include strategies for capturing and controlling stormwater runoff during construction activities. This may involve installing sediment traps, using sediment filter socks, or utilizing temporary or permanent stormwater detention ponds to reduce peak flows and prevent flooding downstream.
Site Grading and Drainage Design: Proper site grading and drainage design are critical to direct stormwater runoff away from vulnerable areas and into appropriate stormwater management facilities. By creating well-designed swales, channels, and berms, water can be efficiently directed to detention ponds or other retention structures, reducing the risk of localized flooding.
Use of Best Construction Practices: Employing construction practices that minimize soil disturbance and protect natural drainage patterns can help prevent excessive runoff and erosion. This includes avoiding excessive clearing, preserving existing vegetation where possible, and using construction techniques that minimize soil compaction.
Stabilization of Disturbed Areas: Prompt stabilization of disturbed areas is crucial to minimize erosion and sediment runoff. Implementing erosion control measures such as mulching, revegetation, or the use of erosion control blankets can help stabilize exposed soil and reduce the potential for sediment runoff into stormwater systems.
Construction Site Runoff Control: Managing and treating construction site runoff is important to prevent contaminants from entering water bodies and exacerbating flood risks. Utilizing sediment traps, sediment basins, or construction site sediment filters can help remove sediment and pollutants from runoff before it is discharged into waterways.
Education and Training: Providing education and training to construction site workers on proper stormwater management practices and BMP implementation is vital. This helps ensure that everyone involved in the construction process understands the importance of controlling runoff and minimizing flood risks.
Regular Inspection and Maintenance: Regularly inspecting and maintaining stormwater management structures and erosion control measures is crucial to their effectiveness. Sediment traps, erosion control devices, and stormwater management facilities should be inspected, cleaned, and repaired as necessary to ensure they function properly and continue to reduce flood risks.
By incorporating these best management practices into construction activities, the potential for erosion, sediment runoff, and localized flooding can be significantly reduced. It is important for construction projects to comply with local regulations and guidelines related to stormwater management and flood control to ensure effective implementation of these practices.”
Experience Shows Value of Recommendations
Wow! It provides a good summary – without days of research of construction regulations in thousands of jurisdictions across the county.
I’ve documented numerous instances of what happens to neighbors when contractors do NOT follow these BMPs.
There was the case of Woodridge Village, the aborted Perry Homes development in Montgomery County at the headwaters of Taylor Gully. Workers there violated virtually every one of those recommendations and up to 600 neighboring families paid the price. They flooded twice in a matter of months. Perry, its subsidiaries and contractors wound up offering a substantial settlement to the flooded families to compensate them for damages.
And just blocks away, a 200+ acre development called Royal Pines made many of the same mistakes. Royal Pines didn’t flood as many neighbors, but it flooded them more often – twice in one month last last year and then again more recently.
Use ChatGPT to Drill Down Quickly
As with yesterday’s post about the “most effective techniques to reduce flooding,” the question about construction BMPs yielded fairly high level results within seconds.
This illustrates one of the most important aspects of using ChatGPT: DRILL DOWN into subjects. Don’t just take the first answer you get.
For instance, ask variations on the original question. Example: When you ask, “What are the consequences for flood control of NOT following construction BMPs,” you find information about:
Increased erosion that can clog water bodies and increase the risk of flooding
Stormwater runoff pollution that can degrade water quality clog drainage systems
Reduced infiltration capacity that increases stormwater runoff and flood risk
Inadequate stormwater management leading to inadequate storage and conveyance capacity
Legal and financial consequences
Explore Different Aspects of Topic
You can also drill down quickly to explore different aspectsof a topic. For instance, when I asked ChatGPT about “the most effective environmental solutions that reduced flooding,” it listed six more recommendations:
Natural Water Retention Measures
Reforestation and Afforestation
Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS)
River and Channel Restoration
Floodplain Management and Zoning
Climate Change Adaptation
I then drilled down on Sustainable Urban Drainage Design and found eight more recommendations including:
Permeable Surfaces
Green Roofs
Rain Gardens
Bioretention Systems
Detention and Retention Basins
Wetlands and Ponds
Water Harvesting: Systems
Education and Awareness
ChatGPT gave clear, concise explanations of each of these topics, plus a summary that put them all in perspective. I just didn’t list them here to keep the length of this post manageable.
Tomorrow in Part 3 of this series on ChatGPT, I’ll describe some of the limitations of this impressive research tool: What happens when it makes a mistake?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/28/2023
2098 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Woodridge-Flood-e1685293428100.jpg?fit=1100%2C677&ssl=16771100adminadmin2023-05-28 12:04:322023-05-28 12:17:15ChatGPT Recommends Construction BMPs that Reduce Flooding
NHC Predicts Near Normal Hurricane Season
Hurricane season starts this week. Offsetting factors, some of which would call for an above-normal hurricane season and others of which would call for a below-normal season, led forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center to split the difference in their seasonal outlook.
They are giving almost equal probabilities to average, above-average, and below-average seasons. But average gets a slight edge. See below.
NOAA predicts 12 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
2023 Hurricane Season Names
Below is a list of storm names for this hurricane season.
Competing Factors Make Forecast Difficult
Competing factors both suppress and encourage storm formation.
After three hurricane seasons with La Nina present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Niño to develop this summer. It can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.
El Niño’s strong winds from the west produce sheer that can discourage tropical storms approaching from the east.
However, favorable conditions include:
The last two factors have produced more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, according to NOAA.
New Policies, Models, Technologies Will Improve Future Forecasts
To improve forecasts, NOAA is adopting new policies, forecasting models and technologies this year. Improvements include:
NOAA emphasizes that its hurricane forecast is not a landfall forecast. Many storms die at sea and never reach land.
Peak of Season Still Three Months Away, But…
The Climate Prediction Center will update the 2023 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
Historically, the peak of hurricane season hits on September 10. However, storms can develop any time of year. Interestingly, NHC determined that a subtropical storm formed in the Atlantic Basin in Mid-January 2023.
And minutes after I first posted this story, the National Hurricane Center issued this 7-day outlook. It shows a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico trying to get organized. But the chances of tropical formation are slim: 10% in the next two days and 20% in the next seven.
So remain alert and prepared.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/2023
2100 Days since Hurricane Harvey
ChatGPT Misses on Some Aspects of Flood-Control
Third in a Three Part Series on ChatGPT and Flood Control
My first post on ChatGPT and flood control talked about its prodigious strengths in outlining a range of mitigation solutions. My second talked about using ChatGPT to drill down further into the subject matter.
It excels at generating high-level summaries of issues. And it allows you to drill down somewhat to explore different aspects of topics. But as you get more specific, it can also give you erroneous information. Here’s an example.
The Texas General Land Office has been in the headlines ever since Harvey. So I asked ChatGPT…
Q: What role does the Texas General Land Office play in reducing flooding?
ChatGPT Answered: “The Texas General Land Office (GLO) plays a crucial role in reducing flooding and managing flood-related issues in the state of Texas. The GLO has several responsibilities and initiatives aimed at mitigating flood risks and enhancing resilience. Here are some key roles and activities of the Texas General Land Office in flood reduction:
The Texas General Land Office’s efforts in flood reduction are aimed at safeguarding communities, protecting natural resources, and enhancing the state’s resilience to flooding and other related hazards. By supporting mitigation projects, implementing floodplain management strategies, and facilitating recovery and funding assistance, the GLO plays a critical role in reducing flood risks and promoting sustainable development in Texas.
End of ChatGPT Response
GLO Asked to Evaluate ChatGPT Response
That sounded a bit off to me. So I asked a GLO employee in public affairs to:
GLO Response Reveals Some Misses
My GLO source responded almost immediately. I’ll start with her conclusion. She said, “Luckily, I don’t fear losing my job to AI yet after reading this. 😊”
Then she explained some of the problems:
“I would say FEMA does floodplain management strategies more than the GLO,” she said. “However, FEMA data about floodplains is used by HUD to develop rules for grants.” Note that the GLO is the primary vehicle for distributing HUD funds in Texas.
“As for the Coastal Barrier System,” she continued, “that is tricky. We are the state sponsor, but there are many partners, so I am not sure if the word “managing” is correct or not.”
“This one is the most incorrect:
“Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) and Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) are Texas Water Development Board programs, not GLO’s. GLO does CDBG-DR and CDBG-MIT grants, which are used to address unmet housing needs (DR) and flood mitigation projects (MIT), but we do not do CDBG funds, which are annual entitlement funds from HUD and very different.
“The biggest glaring error is there is no mention of housing recovery or helping homeowners. I won’t fail ChatGPT, but it definitely requires editing and oversight.”
ChatGPT Hits Some Walls
In addition to errors like those above, sometimes ChatGPT just plain hits a wall and refuses to provide answers. For instance, it:
Putting ChatGPT in Perspective
ChatGPT is an impressive tool. But it’s only one tool in the tool box. You wouldn’t use a saw when you needed a hammer. Understand the best uses of ChatGPT, such as providing high-level outlines or introductions to topics, and you won’t be disappointed.
In short, it’s part of the answer, but not the answer. And as they say on every airplane before takeoff, “cross-check and verify all the doors.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/29/23
2099 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
ChatGPT Recommends Construction BMPs that Reduce Flooding
Second in a series on ChatGPT and Flood-Mitigation Recommendations
Yesterday, I posted ChatGPT’s recommendations on the most effective techniques for flood control. The artificial-intelligence research tool compiled an impressive list, later validated by experts in the field. But they all said the recommendations were high-level. So I conducted another test in which I drilled down into various aspects of the topic.
For instance, I asked ChatGPT…
ChatGPT Answer to Construction BMP Question
Q. “What are best management practices in construction that help reduce flooding?”
A. “Implementing best management practices (BMPs) in construction can help minimize the impact of construction activities on stormwater runoff and reduce the risk of flooding. Here are some key BMPs commonly used to address stormwater management and flood reduction in construction:
By incorporating these best management practices into construction activities, the potential for erosion, sediment runoff, and localized flooding can be significantly reduced. It is important for construction projects to comply with local regulations and guidelines related to stormwater management and flood control to ensure effective implementation of these practices.”
Experience Shows Value of Recommendations
Wow! It provides a good summary – without days of research of construction regulations in thousands of jurisdictions across the county.
I’ve documented numerous instances of what happens to neighbors when contractors do NOT follow these BMPs.
There was the case of Woodridge Village, the aborted Perry Homes development in Montgomery County at the headwaters of Taylor Gully. Workers there violated virtually every one of those recommendations and up to 600 neighboring families paid the price. They flooded twice in a matter of months. Perry, its subsidiaries and contractors wound up offering a substantial settlement to the flooded families to compensate them for damages.
And just blocks away, a 200+ acre development called Royal Pines made many of the same mistakes. Royal Pines didn’t flood as many neighbors, but it flooded them more often – twice in one month last last year and then again more recently.
Use ChatGPT to Drill Down Quickly
As with yesterday’s post about the “most effective techniques to reduce flooding,” the question about construction BMPs yielded fairly high level results within seconds.
This illustrates one of the most important aspects of using ChatGPT: DRILL DOWN into subjects. Don’t just take the first answer you get.
For instance, ask variations on the original question. Example: When you ask, “What are the consequences for flood control of NOT following construction BMPs,” you find information about:
Explore Different Aspects of Topic
You can also drill down quickly to explore different aspects of a topic. For instance, when I asked ChatGPT about “the most effective environmental solutions that reduced flooding,” it listed six more recommendations:
I then drilled down on Sustainable Urban Drainage Design and found eight more recommendations including:
ChatGPT gave clear, concise explanations of each of these topics, plus a summary that put them all in perspective. I just didn’t list them here to keep the length of this post manageable.
Tomorrow in Part 3 of this series on ChatGPT, I’ll describe some of the limitations of this impressive research tool: What happens when it makes a mistake?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/28/2023
2098 Days since Hurricane Harvey