(Updated with more Subdivisions/Streets at 9PM Tuesday) As yesterday’s heavy rains work their way downstream, the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service forecasts that the East Fork at FM1485 will rise 15 feet in the next 24 hours.
As of noon Tuesday, NWS said the river had already reached the “Action Stage” at 56.85 feet. NWS predicts it will reach 71.9 feet by tomorrow at noon. “Major flooding” at that location begins at 69 feet.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, says, “Many of the structures in this area have been elevated, however isolated homes that remain on the ground will be subject to flooding at these levels.”
FM1485 will be under several feet of water. Flows may even approach the deck of the Highway 99 bridge!
Subdivisions and Streets that Could Be Affected
Lindner specifically warned about flooding that could affect the following subdivisions and streets.
Magnolia Point (West end of Commons of Lake Houston)
Opal Way
Diamond
Mendencino
Lassen Villa
Glen
Magnolia
Hill
Calvins
Collins
Calaveras Creek
Flooding of streets is likely. Elevated homes will be cut-offSome structure flooding is possible for any homes on the ground in this area.
South of FM 1485 (east side of the river):
Spalding
Green
Jett
Casey
Some structure flooding is possible for any homes on the ground in this area.
Idle Glen subdivision:
Brookside
Chinquapin
River Side
E. San Jacinto
Glenwood
Dipping
Idlewild
Lazy Creek
Almost all of the homes in this area are elevated, but will be cut-off. Any homes on the ground will be flooded.
Northwood Country Estates:
Flooding of streets is likely. Elevated homes will be cut-off.
Disher
Bounds
Thomas
Davidson
A new 553-acre Friendswood development called Sila is in this area.
River Terrace:
Flooding of the following streets is likely. Elevated homes will be cut-off.
River Terrace
Elm
Pine
Cherry Laurel
Holly
Cypress
Cypress Point:
The following streets will be flooded (closest to the river). Elevated homes will be cut-off.
Blue Lake
Oak Knoll
Wild Oak
Birchwood
The East Fork should also rise 10-15 feet at FM2090.
East Fork at Cleveland
Farther upstream at Cleveland, the East Fork has already peaked and is beginning to recede after only reaching a moderate level of flooding.
As of noon 4/30/24, the East Fork at Cleveland was at a moderate flood stage.
Structure Flooding In Kingwood NOT Expected
Lindner added that, “Flooding will occur in the low lying areas of Kingwood that back up to the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. This is mostly all non-developed lands near the river or back yards with bulkhead that front the river. Structure flooding is NOT expected in Kingwood.”
Meanwhile, at as of noon on 4/30/24, NWS predicts the West Fork will not flood.
Noon, 4/30/24
View Real-Time Inundation Mapping
To view Real-Time Inundation Mapping, go to www.harriscountyfws.org and click “inundation map” on the left side.
Trinity River Also Flooding Badly
The Trinity River at Liberty is about to see major flooding through Sunday. The Trinity is a separate watershed. It will not affect Harris County.
As of noon, 4/30/2024
Other Flooding
Fourteen gages show various streams and creeks in the region are at or near flood stage.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/EastForkat1485.png?fit=600%2C465&ssl=1465600adminadmin2024-04-30 14:02:482024-04-30 21:28:23East Fork Predicted to Rise 15 Feet in Next 24 Hours
4/29/24 – The rainfall distribution in last night’s storm was very uneven. It ranged from a tenth of an inch in some places to more than 10 inches in others.
Totals to the north and east of Houston approached 8-10 inches in places. But most of Harris County received less than 2 inches.
Regardless, the heaviest rainfall in the upper reaches of the East Fork San Jacinto watershed will migrate downstream in the next 2-3 days and cause flooding in low-lying areas near New Caney. The West Fork should only be moderately affected.
After three hours of driving around this morning, all ditches and minor streams that I saw appeared to be within their banks.
Very Uneven Rainfall Distribution
The farther north and east you went, rainfall increased. The gage at US59 and the West Fork received only 1.76 inches.
My rain gage by Kingwood High School recorded 3.11 inches. And a friend who lives by the Montgomery County line recorded a little more than 4 inches.
The Trinity River Authority recorded 10.92 inches on Caney Creek at a small town called Fryday north of Lake Livingston. That gage recorded a whopping 6 inches in one hour between 8 and 9 PM last night.
A gage in Mont Belvieu recorded almost 9 inches. Almost 5 inches of that fell in one hour between 2 and 3 AM.
Most of the higher totals occurred in watersheds that will not drain directly into Harris County. At 1PM on Monday, only six gages in and around the county showed danger signals (meaning a stream was in danger of coming out of its banks).
Most Streams in Banks
The good news: Only one stream at this hour is in danger of coming out of its banks upstream from Lake Houston. That’s Peach Creek near 2090. Peach Creek forms the western boundary of Lake Houston Park.
The bad news: SJRA is releasing almost 10,800 cubic feet per second from Lake Conroe at noon due to heavy rains north of the lake.
From SJRA.net at noon 2.29.24Rainfall totals north of Lake Conroe and around Lake Livingston. From Harris County Flood Warning System, noon 4.29.24.
Farther south, however, totals dropped off rapidly. Parts of western and southern Harris received only a tenth of an inch!
From Harris County Flood Warning System as of 1PM 4/29/24
Flood Forecasts
Because of the rainfall distribution, you need to look upstream from where you are to see whether your area is in danger of flooding. You also need to factor in travel time for the floodwaters. Due to the distance of the heaviest rainfall, flood impacts will be delayed.
Lake Houston
Inflows from the East Fork, Peach and Caney Creeks, and Luce Bayou will result in a rise in the lake level Tuesday into Thursday. Elevated water levels and flows will be likely through Lake Houston for much of this week, according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
West Fork San Jacinto
Lindner expects no flooding at this time…again due to the very uneven rainfall distribution.
Much of the rainfall overnight fell above (north) of Lake Conroe. That will buffer some of this inflow. Additionally heavy rainfall largely missed Spring and Cypress Creeks and only modest amounts occurred along middle and upper Lake Creek. So, additional inflows below Lake Conroe look to be minimal.
The river is not expected to reach flood stage at US 59. However, you should continue to monitor the situation for any changes.
This morning, the West Fork was up slightly. Large amounts of foam and debris were moving downstream. But even low-lying areas such as River Grove Park and the area under the US59 bridge were well above water.
River Grove Park Boat Dock area, around 10AM on 4.29.24West Fork at US59 looking S toward Houston. At 10AM, the river was still well within its banks.
That could change by tomorrow morning.
Worst Flooding Will Be on East Fork at New Caney
A significant rise in the East Fork will start on Tuesday into Wednesday. The river will rise just below major flood level later this week.
At the forecasted levels, FM 1485 will be impassable on the west approaches and several roads downstream of FM 1485 will become flooded and impassable on the west side of the channel. Additionally low lying areas along the river in River Terrace will experience high water, according to Lindner.
Stay tuned for more updates tomorrow and Wednesday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/29/24based on information provided by Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner
2435 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/image001-1.png?fit=597%2C463&ssl=1463597adminadmin2024-04-29 14:35:512024-04-29 17:05:57Storm Report: Flooding Delayed Because of Rainfall Distribution
A breach at the giant Hallett Mine on the San Jacinto West Fork that began in late January or early February is still open and expanding.
Two Pairs of Pictures, Two Weeks Apart
I first reported the breach on April 10. Below are pictures taken then and today.
Hallett Breach, April 10, 2024Hallett Breach, April 24, 2024
In the pictures above, note the difference in the river bank on the left. It appears much more eroded. Also note the freestanding tree in the water on the right in the second photo that is not visible in the first.
Comparison of these wider shots shows more differences.
Hallett Breach, April 10, 2024Hallett Breach, 4/28/2024.
The first shots in each pair were taken when the water was up due to heavy rains upstream. The second shots were taken when the river was at its normal level (57 feet at SH99 as opposed to 66 feet).
In the shot immediately above, note the lack of vegetation on the sidewalls of the pond. That’s one indication that the height of water in this pond was much higher at one time.
Google Earth Image
This image from Google Earth shows water draining out of the pond on February 19.
Hallett Breach in satellite image from Google Earth taken on 2/19/2024shows silty water pouring out of the mine.
Impacts on River
One boater I interviewed for this post last Wednesday when SJRA was releasing 530 cubic feet per second from Lake Conroe said he could normally get all the way to Conroe in his flat bottomed boat at that flow rate. But on that day, he was frequently hitting bottom.
This is consistent with the experience of boaters launching farther downstream in River Grove Park. There, the river depth is now just 1-2 feet in places. And that’s after it was dredged just four years ago.
The Kingwood Service Association is studying ways to keep its boat launch open. But the need for dredging is becoming more expensive and frequent.
I should add in fairness that the river creates a fair amount of erosion on its own and that Hallett isn’t the only mine on the West Fork with breaches in its dikes.
It is, however, the largest mine by far and has a history of dumping its waste into the West Fork. Searching on the keyword “Hallett” in this website reveals 30 posts that include references to the controversial mine.
It has now been approximately three months since the breach.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/28/2024
2434 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/20240428-DJI_20240428150341_0458_D-2.jpg?fit=1100%2C778&ssl=17781100adminadmin2024-04-28 17:35:382024-05-14 17:23:32Breach at Hallett Mine Expanding
East Fork Predicted to Rise 15 Feet in Next 24 Hours
(Updated with more Subdivisions/Streets at 9PM Tuesday) As yesterday’s heavy rains work their way downstream, the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service forecasts that the East Fork at FM1485 will rise 15 feet in the next 24 hours.
As of noon Tuesday, NWS said the river had already reached the “Action Stage” at 56.85 feet. NWS predicts it will reach 71.9 feet by tomorrow at noon. “Major flooding” at that location begins at 69 feet.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, says, “Many of the structures in this area have been elevated, however isolated homes that remain on the ground will be subject to flooding at these levels.”
FM1485 will be under several feet of water. Flows may even approach the deck of the Highway 99 bridge!
Subdivisions and Streets that Could Be Affected
Lindner specifically warned about flooding that could affect the following subdivisions and streets.
Magnolia Point (West end of Commons of Lake Houston)
Flooding of streets is likely. Elevated homes will be cut-offSome structure flooding is possible for any homes on the ground in this area.
South of FM 1485 (east side of the river):
Some structure flooding is possible for any homes on the ground in this area.
Idle Glen subdivision:
Almost all of the homes in this area are elevated, but will be cut-off. Any homes on the ground will be flooded.
Northwood Country Estates:
River Terrace:
Cypress Point:
The East Fork should also rise 10-15 feet at FM2090.
East Fork at Cleveland
Farther upstream at Cleveland, the East Fork has already peaked and is beginning to recede after only reaching a moderate level of flooding.
Structure Flooding In Kingwood NOT Expected
Lindner added that, “Flooding will occur in the low lying areas of Kingwood that back up to the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. This is mostly all non-developed lands near the river or back yards with bulkhead that front the river. Structure flooding is NOT expected in Kingwood.”
Meanwhile, at as of noon on 4/30/24, NWS predicts the West Fork will not flood.
View Real-Time Inundation Mapping
To view Real-Time Inundation Mapping, go to www.harriscountyfws.org and click “inundation map” on the left side.
Trinity River Also Flooding Badly
The Trinity River at Liberty is about to see major flooding through Sunday. The Trinity is a separate watershed. It will not affect Harris County.
Other Flooding
Fourteen gages show various streams and creeks in the region are at or near flood stage.
To see gage levels and predictions for a stream near you, go to the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.
The Harris County Flood Warning System offers many of the same features plus more, such as historical flood heights.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/30/24 at 2PM
2436 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Storm Report: Flooding Delayed Because of Rainfall Distribution
4/29/24 – The rainfall distribution in last night’s storm was very uneven. It ranged from a tenth of an inch in some places to more than 10 inches in others.
Totals to the north and east of Houston approached 8-10 inches in places. But most of Harris County received less than 2 inches.
Regardless, the heaviest rainfall in the upper reaches of the East Fork San Jacinto watershed will migrate downstream in the next 2-3 days and cause flooding in low-lying areas near New Caney. The West Fork should only be moderately affected.
After three hours of driving around this morning, all ditches and minor streams that I saw appeared to be within their banks.
Very Uneven Rainfall Distribution
The farther north and east you went, rainfall increased. The gage at US59 and the West Fork received only 1.76 inches.
My rain gage by Kingwood High School recorded 3.11 inches. And a friend who lives by the Montgomery County line recorded a little more than 4 inches.
The Trinity River Authority recorded 10.92 inches on Caney Creek at a small town called Fryday north of Lake Livingston. That gage recorded a whopping 6 inches in one hour between 8 and 9 PM last night.
A gage in Mont Belvieu recorded almost 9 inches. Almost 5 inches of that fell in one hour between 2 and 3 AM.
Most of the higher totals occurred in watersheds that will not drain directly into Harris County. At 1PM on Monday, only six gages in and around the county showed danger signals (meaning a stream was in danger of coming out of its banks).
Most Streams in Banks
The good news: Only one stream at this hour is in danger of coming out of its banks upstream from Lake Houston. That’s Peach Creek near 2090. Peach Creek forms the western boundary of Lake Houston Park.
The bad news: SJRA is releasing almost 10,800 cubic feet per second from Lake Conroe at noon due to heavy rains north of the lake.
Farther south, however, totals dropped off rapidly. Parts of western and southern Harris received only a tenth of an inch!
Flood Forecasts
Because of the rainfall distribution, you need to look upstream from where you are to see whether your area is in danger of flooding. You also need to factor in travel time for the floodwaters. Due to the distance of the heaviest rainfall, flood impacts will be delayed.
Lake Houston
Inflows from the East Fork, Peach and Caney Creeks, and Luce Bayou will result in a rise in the lake level Tuesday into Thursday. Elevated water levels and flows will be likely through Lake Houston for much of this week, according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.
West Fork San Jacinto
Lindner expects no flooding at this time…again due to the very uneven rainfall distribution.
Much of the rainfall overnight fell above (north) of Lake Conroe. That will buffer some of this inflow. Additionally heavy rainfall largely missed Spring and Cypress Creeks and only modest amounts occurred along middle and upper Lake Creek. So, additional inflows below Lake Conroe look to be minimal.
The river is not expected to reach flood stage at US 59. However, you should continue to monitor the situation for any changes.
This morning, the West Fork was up slightly. Large amounts of foam and debris were moving downstream. But even low-lying areas such as River Grove Park and the area under the US59 bridge were well above water.
That could change by tomorrow morning.
Worst Flooding Will Be on East Fork at New Caney
A significant rise in the East Fork will start on Tuesday into Wednesday. The river will rise just below major flood level later this week.
At the forecasted levels, FM 1485 will be impassable on the west approaches and several roads downstream of FM 1485 will become flooded and impassable on the west side of the channel. Additionally low lying areas along the river in River Terrace will experience high water, according to Lindner.
Stay tuned for more updates tomorrow and Wednesday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/29/24 based on information provided by Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner
2435 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Breach at Hallett Mine Expanding
Correction: This sand pit in this post was sold by Hallett to Riverwalk Porter LLC on January 23, 2024.
A breach at the giant Hallett Mine on the San Jacinto West Fork that began in late January or early February is still open and expanding.
Two Pairs of Pictures, Two Weeks Apart
I first reported the breach on April 10. Below are pictures taken then and today.
In the pictures above, note the difference in the river bank on the left. It appears much more eroded. Also note the freestanding tree in the water on the right in the second photo that is not visible in the first.
Comparison of these wider shots shows more differences.
The first shots in each pair were taken when the water was up due to heavy rains upstream. The second shots were taken when the river was at its normal level (57 feet at SH99 as opposed to 66 feet).
In the shot immediately above, note the lack of vegetation on the sidewalls of the pond. That’s one indication that the height of water in this pond was much higher at one time.
Google Earth Image
This image from Google Earth shows water draining out of the pond on February 19.
Impacts on River
One boater I interviewed for this post last Wednesday when SJRA was releasing 530 cubic feet per second from Lake Conroe said he could normally get all the way to Conroe in his flat bottomed boat at that flow rate. But on that day, he was frequently hitting bottom.
This is consistent with the experience of boaters launching farther downstream in River Grove Park. There, the river depth is now just 1-2 feet in places. And that’s after it was dredged just four years ago.
The Kingwood Service Association is studying ways to keep its boat launch open. But the need for dredging is becoming more expensive and frequent.
I should add in fairness that the river creates a fair amount of erosion on its own and that Hallett isn’t the only mine on the West Fork with breaches in its dikes.
It is, however, the largest mine by far and has a history of dumping its waste into the West Fork. Searching on the keyword “Hallett” in this website reveals 30 posts that include references to the controversial mine.
It has now been approximately three months since the breach.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/28/2024
2434 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.