May 4, 2024 Part II – The worst of this week’s Kingwood flooding may be over, but more heavy rain is on the way.
At 2 PM today, flooding on the East Fork and West Fork San Jacinto Rivers was finally receding. Early even. And lower than expected.
But another storm could drop heavy rainfall on the area tonight. As a result: the National Weather Service (NWS) is keeping a flood watch in effect through Sunday night. NWS predicts that we could get another 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts of 4-8 inches possible.
Earlier and Lower Peaks than Previously Expected
The National Weather Service revised its previous estimate for the West Fork downward shortly after the gage indicated water at US59 was receding. The West Fork was not supposed to peak until early tomorrow morning. And then it would have peaked almost 4 feet higher.
The East Fork started receding last night at FM1485. Water in the Lake Houston Area started trending down late this morning as predicted. That limited Kingwood flooding somewhat.
This is welcome news for all Kingwood residents and their manicurists.
But whether Kingwood flooding continues to go down will depend on the amount of new rain we get. Mother Nature can be a tease sometimes.
Little Housing Damage, Rampant Street Flooding
This morning, I journeyed out with a drone and a Nikon. The most housing damage I saw was on Dunnam Road. I heard of other housing damage, i.e., in Woodstream, Atascocita Point, Kingwood Lakes and Kingwood Greens. But it tended to be isolated.
That’s little consolation for the people who got wet. But it’s a great relief for the vast majority of people who didn’t.
The Dunnam Boat Launch’s Self-Serve Bait Shop was under 17 feet of water according to the owner, who intends to rebuild. Much of her equipment was swept downstream.
Street flooding, however, was rampant and widespread from Woodstream down to Royal Shores on the East Fork and all along the West Fork, past US59.
I also saw lots of floodwater creeping toward homes. But most stopped short of entering homes.
As a consequence, this storm may become the future benchmark for Kingwood flooding. It will set the standard for how much floodwater the area can handle without major housing damage. The saving grace was homes elevated above street level.
Kingwood Flooding In Pictures
Here are more than three dozen shots that summarize what Kingwood flooding looked like on the ground today. Some impacted areas were the direct result of the river overflowing. Others were caused by “backflow flooding.” That’s when high water in the river keeps won’t let channels, streams and storm drains empty.
Please note: I couldn’t get everywhere because of blocked streets and the range of my drone.
Kingwood County ClubKingwood LakesKingwood LakesBarringtonDunnam RoadDunnam RoadDunnam Road where six homes flooded.Entrance to East End Park near RiverchaseRoyal ShoresDunnam RoadRoyal ShoresKings PointKings PointKings PointDeerwood Country ClubFosters MillFosters MillFosters MillLooking W toward the Docks shopping center and HEB in distance.Memorial Hermann Northeast Convenient Care Center (left) on Kingwood Drive. Parking lot under water.West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge over Bens Branch.Approach to West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge under water. Police closed off road.West Lake Houston Bridge over West Fork closed to traffic due to approaches being under water.Kings Harbor. Riverwalk under water. River up to Raffa’s, Zammitti’s and Sharky’s.Kingwood GreensKingwood GreensLooking east along Hamblen Road and West Fork San JacintoLooking N across Hamblen Road toward Laurel Springs RV Resort and Lakewood Cove.Laurel Springs LaneOld Humble ISD Ag Barn at Deer Ridge ParkDeer Ridge EstatesEdgewater Park At 59 and Hamblen RoadWest Side of 59 looking south toward Deerbrook Mall and Costco. Note submerged cars (lower right).Lakeside Area near confluence of Spring Creek (left) and West Fork (splitting off to right)Looking E across 59 toward Lake Houston. Note Railroad Bridge in Background. NO logjams since new construction.Scenic Shores Drive in Kings PointFosters MillPhoto by Melissa Balcom on Hamblen Road. Her son and dog evacuating on foot.
Please Share Your Flood Pics
If you have dramatic flood photos, please send them in through the Submissions page on this website so I can share and archive them.
Let’s pray that the worst is over for now.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/4/24
2440 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/20240504-DJI_20240504112030_0302_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-05-04 21:39:032024-06-24 17:33:58Worst of Kingwood Flooding May Be Over, But More Heavy Rain On Way
(Updated 8:30 AM 5/4/24 with current inundation map) This post explains when flood peaks will arrive in the Humble-Kingwood-Huffman Areas and how high they will get. It also includes evacuation advice from local officials and a photographic look at flooding so far.
Peaks Arriving at Separate Times
After almost 20 inches of rain this week in the headwaters of the East Fork and West Fork San Jacinto rivers, the runoff has finally worked its way down to the Lake Houston Area. Luckily, the crests will arrive at separate times. That should reduce flooding somewhat. The peaks won’t build on top of each other.
The National Weather Service has already reduced its predicted peak for the West Fork by one foot. And the SJRA has reduced its release rate from Lake Conroe to about a third of what it was yesterday morning.
East Fork Flood Crest Moving to Lake Houston Tonight
The East Fork crest has moved into Harris County at FM1485 and should arrive in Lake Houston tonight.
East Fork at FM1485 at county line. Peak of 77.75 feet arrived near 7 PM tonight after rising 11.5 feet through the day.
The waters will spread out somewhat as they approach Lake Houston, reducing their height. But 11.5 feet is a hefty rise in one day!
Farther upstream in Cleveland, the East Fork flood peak started trending down last night. By this morning, it had fallen 9 feet.
Expect rapid, radical rises on the East Fork as the flood peak moves toward Lake Houston.
West Fork Peak Migrates Downstream
The West Fork flood peak should reach the US59 bridge sometime tomorrow night. Today, the crest moved past SH99.
In 24 hours the West Fork crest rose 12 feetat SH99.
By tomorrow, the river at SH99 should start receding and fall below flood stage early Sunday morning.
In the meantime, downstream at the US59 bridge, the West Fork is at 56.38 feet and should rise to 61 by midnight tomorrow.
The West Fork won’t drop from major flooding to moderate until Monday, May 6.
NWS doesn’t compile similar graphs for the Lake Houston Dam. But tonight a five foot wall of water was going over the spillway.
As of Friday May 3 at 7PM.
Here’s how that will affect people below the dam.
At Sheldon, the river will stay above major flood stage until Monday night.
Mayor Prioritizes Kingwood Second Day in Row
Mayor John Whitmire, Council Member Fred Flickinger, Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey and State Representative Charles Cunningham held another press conference this afternoon in Kingwood to urge people in at-risk areas to evacuate.
Their primary messages:
Humble, Kingwood and Huffman are in the eye of this storm. We are the most affected watershed in Harris County: the place where the two biggest rivers converge at the tip of a massive funnel.
Floodwaters can build rapidly and cut people off.
High-water rescues can put both you and first responders at risk.
Better safe than sorry.
Local officials plan flood response strategy at Firehouse 102 in Kingwood. L to R: Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE; Houston Mayor John Whitmire; State Rep. Charles Cunningham; and City Council Member Fred Flickinger.
How bad could it get? See the inundation maps and photos below.
Compare These Two Inundation Maps
To underscore their points, compare these two inundation maps, from the Harris County Flood Control District’s Flood Warning System.
Just three days ago, the upper Lake Houston Area looked like this.
Flood waters can build rather quickly, stranding those who dally.
You can use the historical feature in the inundation mapping tool to see where the crest was near your address in previous floods. But make sure you know when the crest arrived. Who can remember the exact day and hour when Harvey’s flood peak arrived near you?
Experiment. Look at several days before and after when you think the flood peaks arrived.
Specific Advice from Harris County’s Meteorologist
Here’s evacuation advice from Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner by watershed. It has not changed since yesterday. So if you read it then, skip down to photos taken today as the flood started to build.
East Fork San Jacinto
Peak of flood wave is moving into NE Harris County. Widespread severe flooding is in progress. Numerous water rescues have been conducted today. The river continues to quickly rise as the crest moves downstream..
Impacted subdivisions:
Idle Wilde
Idle Glen
Cypress Point
River Terrace
Magnolia Point
Northwood Country Ests
Eastern portions of Kingwood (lowest areas closest to the river):
Riverchase
Woodspring Forest
Woodstream
West Fork San Jacinto River near SH99 and I-45:
Major flooding is in progress upstream and downstream of I-45 including large portions of River Plantation and portions of Woodloch downstream to SH 242 and SH 99. The river is at crest and will begin a slow fall tonight with a more rapid fall on Saturday.
West Fork San Jacinto River at Humble (US 59)
River is rising from upstream inflows… Widespread low land flooding is in progress and will worsen through the night into Saturday. The river will peak Saturday afternoon and evening with a long flat crest and slow recession. The river will rise another 5-6 feet into Saturday.
Flooding of streets and structures near the river and its tributaries is likely along the river. Portions of the following subdivisions are likely to be impacted with the greatest impacts nearest the river.
Belleau Woods
Rivercrest
Northshore
Forest Cove (nearest the river)
Kings River Estates
Atascocita Shores
Kings Point
Kings Harbor
Kings River
Kingwood Greens
Fosters Mill
Kingwood Lakes
Barrington
Trailwood
Deer Ridge Estates
The following areas will be completely flooded with several feet of water: Deerwood Country Club, Deer Ridge Park, River Grove Park, Kingwood Country Club.
Elevated residents near the river should be prepared to be cut-off through the weekend.
San Jacinto River Near Sheldon
Major flooding is expected at all locations along the lower portions of the river.
Rio Villa is now cut-off as well as low-lying, river-bottom areas around Highlands and HWY 90.
High velocity flows may damage vessels and barges near I-10 and result in loss of mooring.
Flow may approach the I-10 river bridge west of the river crossing. Additionally, high flows will result in the suspension of Ferry service.
Kingwood Photos Taken Before Peaks Arrived
I took these photos this morning and afternoon.
Let me start with one from the West Fork. It shows the area near the Hallett mine between Northpark Drive, FM1314, Sorters-McClellan Road and the river.
This photo is farthest upstream of this group, all taken on the West Fork and hints at what’s headed our way. Note how the river reaches the treetops. Can you even see where the river is?
Hallett Mine San Jacinto West ForkBens Branch at Kingwood Town Center. Left branch comes from Montgomery County. Right originates in Kingwood.Kings Harbor riverwalk was already under water. Raffa’s could be threatened tomorrow.WLHP Bridge at about 11 AM.Edgewater Park at US59 and West Fork. Turnaround under bridge was closed.Flooded homes near confluence of Spring and Caney Creeks, and West Fork.Hamblen Road flooded yesterday cutting off homes.Homes flooded to second floor on Riverbend.River Grove Park Soccer Fields and Boat Launch.Approximately 2 PM.Paddleboard at Kingwood Country Club on the driving range.
Paddleboard will probably not be safe in the coming days. But after looking at heartbreak all morning, it brought a smile.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/4/2024
2440 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/20240503-DJI_20240503180502_0197_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-05-03 23:45:392024-05-05 09:45:35When Flood Peaks Will Arrive, How High They Will Get
May 3, 2024 – As of 10 PM last night, the level of Lake Conroe had declined slightly for several hours. That indicates inflows are now less than outflows. Accordingly, San Jacinto River Authority Board Member Mark Micheletti worked out an agreement with the SJRA General Manager to start reducing the lake’s release rate.
By midnight the release rate was down from 69,585 cubic feet per second (CFS) to 64,797. And the lake level was down from 205.13 to 204.79.
This post contains information about the new release strategy, updated river and weather forecasts, plus a list of stunning rainfall totals from yesterday.
New Lake Conroe Release Strategy
During Harvey, many downstream residents felt the SJRA released too much for too long to return the lake to normal as quickly as possible.
The new agreement reached late tonight will have dam operators lowering the release rate in 2500 CFS increments. They will then wait two hours to see if the water level is increasing or decreasing, and adjust the next increment accordingly.
This strategy lets them delay additional decreases if necessary. For instance, if new heavy rainfalls increase inflows.
Dam operators still have the flexibility to release more if necessary. But it avoids leaving the release rate too high for too long when unnecessary.
All things considered, this strategy should protect downstream residents as much as possible. It also gives Lake Conroe operators a safety margin.
No Significant Changes to Flood Forecasts Since This Afternoon
As of 9:31 PM, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner had no changes to ongoing river forecasts. He emphasized that significant flood waves will continue moving down the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto into the weekend.
New Weather Forecast Reduces Rainfall Risk
Compared to yesterday’s weather forecast, however, Lindner also revised the expected overnight rainfall downward.
“Expect a mostly calm night with a low-end chance of a few showers toward morning. With heating on Friday and the approach of another thunderstorm complex from North Texas, there will be an increasing chance of rainfall during the day,” he said. “At this time. this complex of storms looks fairly progressive during the afternoon hours, but there is some uncertainty on how the storms evolve and how fast they cross the area.”
He says that additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with slightly higher isolated totals can be expected on Friday. This additional rainfall is included in the river forecast models and should not greatly alter the current river forecast.
See river forecast summaries below.
East Fork San Jacinto River at New Caney (FM 1485)
Mandatory evacuation is still in effect for the eastern side of the river from FM 1485 to Lake Houston.
“Forecasted water levels will rise 7 feet higher than earlier this week. Structures on the ground will be flooded to rooftops levels,” says Lindner. “Elevated structures will be flooded. For reference, the forecasted water level is 4 ft below Harvey.” Similar to earlier this week, the rapid rise of several feet is expected late Friday into Saturday.
Impacted subdivisions:
Idle Wilde
Idle Glen
Cypress Point
River Terrace
Magnolia Point
Northwood Country Ests
Low-lying eastern portions of Kingwood, such as:
Riverchase
Woodstream
Woodspring Forest
As of Thursday at 9 PM
West Fork San Jacinto River at Humble (US 59)
The river will rapidly rise from upstream inflows. It will reach major flood levels and peak near 62 ft on Saturday. Widespread low-land flooding will occur. It will likely impact lower areas in West Fork subdivisions such as:
Belleau Woods
Rivercrest
Northshore
Forest Cove
Kings River Estates
Atascocita Shores
Kings Point
Kings Harbor
Kings River
Kingwood Greens
Fosters Mill
Kingwood Lakes
Barrington
Trailwood
Deer Ridge Estates
Kingwood residents should expect flooding of streets and structures near the East Fork, West Fork, and their tributaries.
Harris County is revising a potential inundation map that circulated Thursday on Facebook. Lindner says to expect the type of flooding we saw during the Memorial Days storm in 2016.
The following areas will be completely flooded with several feet of water: Deerwood Country Club, Deer Ridge Park, River Grove Park, Kingwood Country Club.
Elevated residents near the river should be prepared to be cut-off through the weekend if they don’t evacuate.
As of Thursday at 9 PM
West Fork of the San Jacinto River at I-45
Major flooding is imminent upstream and downstream of I-45 including large portions of River Plantation and portions of Woodloch downstream to SH 242 and SH 99. Flows may approach the I-45 bridge deck. The current forecast is about 1 ft below Harvey recorded levels.
As of Thursday at 9 PM
San Jacinto River Below Lake Houston
Major flooding is expected at all locations along the lower portions of the river.
Rio Villa will be completely inundated and cut-off and well as low lying in the river bottom around Highlands and HWY 90.
High velocity flows may damage vessels and barges near I-10 and result in loss of mooring.
Flow may approach the I-10 river bridge west of the river crossing. Additionally, high flows will result in the suspension of Ferry service.
As of Thursday at 9 PM
Spring Creek
According to Lindner, the creek is rising on the upper end due to flows from Waller and Montgomery Counties. Minor flooding is in progress along the upper portions of Spring Creek at Hegar Rd. Water levels along the creek are high, but any flooding is minor and to rural areas near the creek.
Willow Creek
Willow Creek has crested and is slowly falling.
Yesterday’s Storm: Gage Readings
The storm that swept through southern Montgomery and northern Harris Counties yesterday dropped impressive amounts of rainfall.
Harris County Flood Control District released the following totals at 7 PM Thursday.
8.24 in. – 1050 Spring Creek @ I-45
8.2 in. – 1320 Willow Creek @ Kuykendahl Road
7.76 in. – 755 San Jacinto River @ Lake Houston Pkwy
7.2 in. – 785 Peach Creek @ FM 2090
7.12 in. – 790 East Fork San Jacinto @ FM 1485
6.92 in. – 795 East Fork San Jacinto @ FM 2090
6.8 in. – 765 San Jacinto River @ SH 99
6.64 in. – 1745 Cedar Bayou @ FM 1960
6.6 in. – 1960 Luce Bayou @ SH 321
6.12 in. – 770 San Jacinto River @ SH 242
5.88 in. – 780 Caney Creek @ FM 2090
5.76 in. – 1040 Spring Creek @ FM 2978
5.64 in. – 1940 Luce Bayou @ FM 2100
5.48 in. – 1340 Willow Creek @ SH 249
5.12 in. – 1056 Mill Creek @ FM 1774
5.04 in. – 1950 Luce Bayou @ SH 99
5.0 in. – 1080 Spring Creek @ Decker Prairie-Rosehill Road
4.96 in. – 760 San Jacinto River @ US 59
Locations Out of Banks, Flooding Likely
HCFCD also reported that the following streams/channels were out of their banks and flooding was likely.
710 San Jacinto River @ Rio Villa
720 San Jacinto River @ US 90
740 Lake Houston @ FM 1960
760 San Jacinto River @ US 59
780 Caney Creek @ FM 2090
785 Peach Creek @ FM 2090
790 East Fork San Jacinto @ FM 1485
795 East Fork San Jacinto @ FM 2090
1054 Mill Creek @ FM 1486
1074 Walnut Creek @ Joseph Road
1084 Threemile Creek @ Joseph Road
1090 Spring Creek @ Hegar Road
1195 Mound Creek @ FM 362
1950 Luce Bayou @ SH 99
Flooding Possible
The following streams were still in banks, but flooding was possible.
The elevation of a home, business or street, visit the USGS National Map.
If in doubt about whether you will flood, remember. Better safe than sorry. If you evacuate needlessly, the most you lose is a day or two. But if you don’t and you flood, you could lose everything.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/3/24
2439 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/WF-Thurs-59-9pm.png?fit=899%2C693&ssl=1693899adminadmin2024-05-03 00:56:532024-05-03 00:56:55SJRA Reducing Lake Conroe Release Rate
Worst of Kingwood Flooding May Be Over, But More Heavy Rain On Way
May 4, 2024 Part II – The worst of this week’s Kingwood flooding may be over, but more heavy rain is on the way.
At 2 PM today, flooding on the East Fork and West Fork San Jacinto Rivers was finally receding. Early even. And lower than expected.
But another storm could drop heavy rainfall on the area tonight. As a result: the National Weather Service (NWS) is keeping a flood watch in effect through Sunday night. NWS predicts that we could get another 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts of 4-8 inches possible.
Earlier and Lower Peaks than Previously Expected
The National Weather Service revised its previous estimate for the West Fork downward shortly after the gage indicated water at US59 was receding. The West Fork was not supposed to peak until early tomorrow morning. And then it would have peaked almost 4 feet higher.
The East Fork started receding last night at FM1485. Water in the Lake Houston Area started trending down late this morning as predicted. That limited Kingwood flooding somewhat.
Even the water level at the dam is going down (though it’s still six feet above normal).
This is welcome news for all Kingwood residents and their manicurists.
But whether Kingwood flooding continues to go down will depend on the amount of new rain we get. Mother Nature can be a tease sometimes.
Little Housing Damage, Rampant Street Flooding
This morning, I journeyed out with a drone and a Nikon. The most housing damage I saw was on Dunnam Road. I heard of other housing damage, i.e., in Woodstream, Atascocita Point, Kingwood Lakes and Kingwood Greens. But it tended to be isolated.
That’s little consolation for the people who got wet. But it’s a great relief for the vast majority of people who didn’t.
The Dunnam Boat Launch’s Self-Serve Bait Shop was under 17 feet of water according to the owner, who intends to rebuild. Much of her equipment was swept downstream.
Street flooding, however, was rampant and widespread from Woodstream down to Royal Shores on the East Fork and all along the West Fork, past US59.
I also saw lots of floodwater creeping toward homes. But most stopped short of entering homes.
As a consequence, this storm may become the future benchmark for Kingwood flooding. It will set the standard for how much floodwater the area can handle without major housing damage. The saving grace was homes elevated above street level.
Kingwood Flooding In Pictures
Here are more than three dozen shots that summarize what Kingwood flooding looked like on the ground today. Some impacted areas were the direct result of the river overflowing. Others were caused by “backflow flooding.” That’s when high water in the river keeps won’t let channels, streams and storm drains empty.
Please note: I couldn’t get everywhere because of blocked streets and the range of my drone.
Please Share Your Flood Pics
If you have dramatic flood photos, please send them in through the Submissions page on this website so I can share and archive them.
Let’s pray that the worst is over for now.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/4/24
2440 Days since Hurricane Harvey
When Flood Peaks Will Arrive, How High They Will Get
(Updated 8:30 AM 5/4/24 with current inundation map) This post explains when flood peaks will arrive in the Humble-Kingwood-Huffman Areas and how high they will get. It also includes evacuation advice from local officials and a photographic look at flooding so far.
Peaks Arriving at Separate Times
After almost 20 inches of rain this week in the headwaters of the East Fork and West Fork San Jacinto rivers, the runoff has finally worked its way down to the Lake Houston Area. Luckily, the crests will arrive at separate times. That should reduce flooding somewhat. The peaks won’t build on top of each other.
The National Weather Service has already reduced its predicted peak for the West Fork by one foot. And the SJRA has reduced its release rate from Lake Conroe to about a third of what it was yesterday morning.
East Fork Flood Crest Moving to Lake Houston Tonight
The East Fork crest has moved into Harris County at FM1485 and should arrive in Lake Houston tonight.
The waters will spread out somewhat as they approach Lake Houston, reducing their height. But 11.5 feet is a hefty rise in one day!
Farther upstream in Cleveland, the East Fork flood peak started trending down last night. By this morning, it had fallen 9 feet.
Expect rapid, radical rises on the East Fork as the flood peak moves toward Lake Houston.
West Fork Peak Migrates Downstream
The West Fork flood peak should reach the US59 bridge sometime tomorrow night. Today, the crest moved past SH99.
By tomorrow, the river at SH99 should start receding and fall below flood stage early Sunday morning.
In the meantime, downstream at the US59 bridge, the West Fork is at 56.38 feet and should rise to 61 by midnight tomorrow.
NWS doesn’t compile similar graphs for the Lake Houston Dam. But tonight a five foot wall of water was going over the spillway.
Here’s how that will affect people below the dam.
Mayor Prioritizes Kingwood Second Day in Row
Mayor John Whitmire, Council Member Fred Flickinger, Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey and State Representative Charles Cunningham held another press conference this afternoon in Kingwood to urge people in at-risk areas to evacuate.
Their primary messages:
How bad could it get? See the inundation maps and photos below.
Compare These Two Inundation Maps
To underscore their points, compare these two inundation maps, from the Harris County Flood Control District’s Flood Warning System.
Just three days ago, the upper Lake Houston Area looked like this.
Yesterday, the map looked like this.
Flood waters can build rather quickly, stranding those who dally.
You can use the historical feature in the inundation mapping tool to see where the crest was near your address in previous floods. But make sure you know when the crest arrived. Who can remember the exact day and hour when Harvey’s flood peak arrived near you?
Experiment. Look at several days before and after when you think the flood peaks arrived.
Specific Advice from Harris County’s Meteorologist
Here’s evacuation advice from Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner by watershed. It has not changed since yesterday. So if you read it then, skip down to photos taken today as the flood started to build.
East Fork San Jacinto
Peak of flood wave is moving into NE Harris County. Widespread severe flooding is in progress. Numerous water rescues have been conducted today. The river continues to quickly rise as the crest moves downstream..
Impacted subdivisions:
Eastern portions of Kingwood (lowest areas closest to the river):
West Fork San Jacinto River near SH99 and I-45:
Major flooding is in progress upstream and downstream of I-45 including large portions of River Plantation and portions of Woodloch downstream to SH 242 and SH 99. The river is at crest and will begin a slow fall tonight with a more rapid fall on Saturday.
West Fork San Jacinto River at Humble (US 59)
River is rising from upstream inflows… Widespread low land flooding is in progress and will worsen through the night into Saturday. The river will peak Saturday afternoon and evening with a long flat crest and slow recession. The river will rise another 5-6 feet into Saturday.
Flooding of streets and structures near the river and its tributaries is likely along the river. Portions of the following subdivisions are likely to be impacted with the greatest impacts nearest the river.
The following areas will be completely flooded with several feet of water: Deerwood Country Club, Deer Ridge Park, River Grove Park, Kingwood Country Club.
Elevated residents near the river should be prepared to be cut-off through the weekend.
San Jacinto River Near Sheldon
Major flooding is expected at all locations along the lower portions of the river.
Rio Villa is now cut-off as well as low-lying, river-bottom areas around Highlands and HWY 90.
High velocity flows may damage vessels and barges near I-10 and result in loss of mooring.
Flow may approach the I-10 river bridge west of the river crossing. Additionally, high flows will result in the suspension of Ferry service.
Kingwood Photos Taken Before Peaks Arrived
I took these photos this morning and afternoon.
Let me start with one from the West Fork. It shows the area near the Hallett mine between Northpark Drive, FM1314, Sorters-McClellan Road and the river.
This photo is farthest upstream of this group, all taken on the West Fork and hints at what’s headed our way. Note how the river reaches the treetops. Can you even see where the river is?
Paddleboard will probably not be safe in the coming days. But after looking at heartbreak all morning, it brought a smile.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/4/2024
2440 Days since Hurricane Harvey
SJRA Reducing Lake Conroe Release Rate
May 3, 2024 – As of 10 PM last night, the level of Lake Conroe had declined slightly for several hours. That indicates inflows are now less than outflows. Accordingly, San Jacinto River Authority Board Member Mark Micheletti worked out an agreement with the SJRA General Manager to start reducing the lake’s release rate.
By midnight the release rate was down from 69,585 cubic feet per second (CFS) to 64,797. And the lake level was down from 205.13 to 204.79.
This post contains information about the new release strategy, updated river and weather forecasts, plus a list of stunning rainfall totals from yesterday.
New Lake Conroe Release Strategy
During Harvey, many downstream residents felt the SJRA released too much for too long to return the lake to normal as quickly as possible.
The new agreement reached late tonight will have dam operators lowering the release rate in 2500 CFS increments. They will then wait two hours to see if the water level is increasing or decreasing, and adjust the next increment accordingly.
This strategy lets them delay additional decreases if necessary. For instance, if new heavy rainfalls increase inflows.
Dam operators still have the flexibility to release more if necessary. But it avoids leaving the release rate too high for too long when unnecessary.
All things considered, this strategy should protect downstream residents as much as possible. It also gives Lake Conroe operators a safety margin.
No Significant Changes to Flood Forecasts Since This Afternoon
As of 9:31 PM, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner had no changes to ongoing river forecasts. He emphasized that significant flood waves will continue moving down the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto into the weekend.
New Weather Forecast Reduces Rainfall Risk
Compared to yesterday’s weather forecast, however, Lindner also revised the expected overnight rainfall downward.
“Expect a mostly calm night with a low-end chance of a few showers toward morning. With heating on Friday and the approach of another thunderstorm complex from North Texas, there will be an increasing chance of rainfall during the day,” he said. “At this time. this complex of storms looks fairly progressive during the afternoon hours, but there is some uncertainty on how the storms evolve and how fast they cross the area.”
He says that additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with slightly higher isolated totals can be expected on Friday. This additional rainfall is included in the river forecast models and should not greatly alter the current river forecast.
See river forecast summaries below.
East Fork San Jacinto River at New Caney (FM 1485)
Mandatory evacuation is still in effect for the eastern side of the river from FM 1485 to Lake Houston.
“Forecasted water levels will rise 7 feet higher than earlier this week. Structures on the ground will be flooded to rooftops levels,” says Lindner. “Elevated structures will be flooded. For reference, the forecasted water level is 4 ft below Harvey.” Similar to earlier this week, the rapid rise of several feet is expected late Friday into Saturday.
Impacted subdivisions:
West Fork San Jacinto River at Humble (US 59)
The river will rapidly rise from upstream inflows. It will reach major flood levels and peak near 62 ft on Saturday. Widespread low-land flooding will occur. It will likely impact lower areas in West Fork subdivisions such as:
Kingwood residents should expect flooding of streets and structures near the East Fork, West Fork, and their tributaries.
Harris County is revising a potential inundation map that circulated Thursday on Facebook. Lindner says to expect the type of flooding we saw during the Memorial Days storm in 2016.
The following areas will be completely flooded with several feet of water: Deerwood Country Club, Deer Ridge Park, River Grove Park, Kingwood Country Club.
Elevated residents near the river should be prepared to be cut-off through the weekend if they don’t evacuate.
West Fork of the San Jacinto River at I-45
Major flooding is imminent upstream and downstream of I-45 including large portions of River Plantation and portions of Woodloch downstream to SH 242 and SH 99. Flows may approach the I-45 bridge deck. The current forecast is about 1 ft below Harvey recorded levels.
San Jacinto River Below Lake Houston
Major flooding is expected at all locations along the lower portions of the river.
Rio Villa will be completely inundated and cut-off and well as low lying in the river bottom around Highlands and HWY 90.
High velocity flows may damage vessels and barges near I-10 and result in loss of mooring.
Flow may approach the I-10 river bridge west of the river crossing. Additionally, high flows will result in the suspension of Ferry service.
Spring Creek
According to Lindner, the creek is rising on the upper end due to flows from Waller and Montgomery Counties. Minor flooding is in progress along the upper portions of Spring Creek at Hegar Rd. Water levels along the creek are high, but any flooding is minor and to rural areas near the creek.
Willow Creek
Willow Creek has crested and is slowly falling.
Yesterday’s Storm: Gage Readings
The storm that swept through southern Montgomery and northern Harris Counties yesterday dropped impressive amounts of rainfall.
Harris County Flood Control District released the following totals at 7 PM Thursday.
Locations Out of Banks, Flooding Likely
HCFCD also reported that the following streams/channels were out of their banks and flooding was likely.
Flooding Possible
The following streams were still in banks, but flooding was possible.
Resources for More Information
To see:
If in doubt about whether you will flood, remember. Better safe than sorry. If you evacuate needlessly, the most you lose is a day or two. But if you don’t and you flood, you could lose everything.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/3/24
2439 Days since Hurricane Harvey