9/23/24 at 12 PM – The National Hurricane Center has designated a disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. Currently, NHC gives the storm a 90% chance of development in the next two days.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, models indicate it will likely escalate into a Category 4 hurricane as it heads north over the warm waters of the Gulf.
However, it will likely make landfall along the Florida Panhandle. Current forecasts indicate no threat to Texas. Overnight, the projected track of the storm shifted farther east.
Projections as of Noon Monday
I’m posting this because Houston residents may have friends, relatives or travel plans in affected areas. See below.
Center of storm has equal change of tracking anywhere within cone. Cone does not indicate width of storm.
Tropical storm force winds associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 should arrive in the big bend area of the Florida panhandle sometime between Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
NHC predicts a 50:50 chance for tropical storm force winds extending north into Georgia.
The National Weather Service has this to say for people in the Panhandle and southern Georgia, “There is a potential for significant storm surge; heavy rainfall and flooding; and strong winds across the north and eastern Gulf Coast.”
“Impacts could begin as early as Wednesday night and last into Friday,” says NWS. “More detailed and specific impacts will be highly dependent on future track/intensity and we’ll be including those in future updates in the next day or two.”
Winds have a 95 percent chance of a 75 MPH increase during the next 72 hours.
National Hurricane Center
Frequency of Major Hurricanes
When/if the Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 reaches 39 MPH, NHC will dub it Helene.
We’ve already had one major hurricane in the Gulf this year – Beryl. The second major hurricane usually develops in the Atlantic Basin by September 19. So, even though this season has fewer than normal named storms, it will have an average number of major hurricanes for this part of the season if Helene becomes a Category 3 or higher.
At present, NHC says the area of concern in the northwestern Caribbean between Honduras and Cuba continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images.
A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or so. Models agree that the center of the system should reach the northeast Gulf on Thursday.
Since the disturbance currently lacks a well-defined center, future track adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.
While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the next day or so.
Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening. The sea surface temperature anomaly chart below shows that temperatures in the Caribbean and Gulf are up to 8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average for this time of year.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon.
Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches have already been issued for portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Key Messages
The disturbance will strengthen and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday night.
The system will intensify and could become a major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along portions of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida west coast. But it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean. That may lead to flooding and possible mudslides in western Cuba.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will likely produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches.
Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash and river flooding.
For the latest rainfall forecasts associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphics.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/23/24
2582 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/153941_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-09-23 12:40:592024-09-23 16:50:08NHC Issues Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone 9
9/22/2024 at 6PM – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a 2PM update today that warns of an 80% chance of a potential new tropical system forming in the seven days. They give the new tropical system a 40% chance in the next two days. The system is now centered in the northwestern Caribbean between Honduras and Cuba.
However, NHC predicts the storm will track somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle. While it is no immediate threat to Texas, residents should keep an eye on developments in the next few days, they say.
NHC Graphics
Two-day outlook gives system a 40% chance of development.Seven-day outlook gives the system an 80% chance.
Favorable Environmental Conditions
NHC predicts the track will bend east after crossing between the Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba.
“Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure,” they say. “Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days…”
Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature.
Later this week, the system should move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and “interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system.”
Potential system in center of frame could be pulled north and east by an exiting low-pressure system that now stretches from West Texas to New Englandnear top of frame.
Local Impacts Seen as Limited As of Now
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, said, “The system should lift northward over the Gulf of Mexico by mid to late week. A large upper level low over the southern plains will help draw the tropical system north of northeast toward the US Gulf coast.”
Lindner added that most models are in agreement at this point which makes confidence fairly high. However, he also said, “There may be some small differences in the ultimate track toward the US Gulf coast.”
He concluded, “Guidance also suggests this will be a large tropical system which is capable of moving huge amounts of water in the Gulf.”
“With the current higher than normal fall lunar tides in place, there is some potential for elevated tides along the Texas coast late this week, even for a tropical system passing well to our east.”
If this system turns into a named storm, it will become Helene.
Everyone predicted a severe hurricane season this year, but so far, it has not materialized. On average, we have our tenth named storm by now. See below.
All last week, forecasters warned that this storm had a chance of development. And on most days, the chances increased. Keep your eye on this one!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/24
2581 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/two_atl_7d0-2.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-09-22 18:30:362024-09-22 18:30:37Potential New Tropical System Headed Toward Central Gulf
9/21/2024 – Is Beryl debris cleared from the stream or channel nearest you yet? Here’s how to report fallen trees when you find them blocking waterways. Hurry. Once the equipment is gone, it will be hard to get it back.
Harris County Flood Control District and FEMA contractors have been hard at work for the last two months removing those blockages. But they have 2500 miles of channels to clear. Some of those miles, like those in Kingwood, are difficult to access and they’re massively clogged with debris.
Ensuring debris is removed involves reporting the precise location of blockages which don’t always have street addresses. If your phone doesn’t embed GPS coordinates in images, identify the location on the channel map in Harris County’s Flood Education Mapping Tool.
In many cases, clearing blockages may also involve negotiating rights of access with contractors across homeowner or trail association property. So make sure you inform your associations, too.
How Debris Creates Hidden Flood Threats
On July 8, Beryl bulldozed its way through Houston. The damage was especially bad in the Lake Houston Area. Trees fell on roofs and power lines everywhere. Many homes still await repair, though power has been restored.
But hidden out of sight, are hundreds, if not thousands of trees that fell into our streams and channels, deep in the woods where most people don’t see them. If left in place, these trees can catch others swept downstream in future floods. And the resulting log dams, can back water up into homes, causing even more damage.
And Beryl left a lot of debris.
Removing 350 Tons from One Channel in One Day
Optimal, a FEMA contractor, said they removed 350 tons of debris from one channel in Kings Forest in one day. The work involved several vehicles. That’s 700,000 pounds.
See the pictures below supplied by Chris Bloch, a Bear Branch Trail Association Director. He took them on on 9/18/24 in Kings Forest and Kingwood Lakes.
The yellow tracked vehicle in the creek cuts logs (right) and wrestles them into another tracked vehicle which hauls them out of the woods.
Here’s what they are up against.
It’s was a messy job. But they removed the threats.
The 12-Ton tracked dump truck hauled the logs and brush to the Kings Forest Pool parking lot.They piled it up for other trucks to take away. It all operated like an assembly line. Or should I say disassembly line?
Some blockages may require bigger equipment which is in shorter supply according to Bloch. In those cases, contractors may have to return later. The main thing is to report all the damage you find to HCFCD now. They still have quite a few Kingwood channel sections to clear. But hurry. Hurricane season is far from over.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/24
2580 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/20240918-Bear-Branch-from-KW-Drive.jpg?fit=1100%2C831&ssl=18311100adminadmin2024-09-21 18:58:502024-09-21 19:15:35Is Beryl Debris Cleared from Your Stream or Channel Yet?
NHC Issues Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone 9
9/23/24 at 12 PM – The National Hurricane Center has designated a disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. Currently, NHC gives the storm a 90% chance of development in the next two days.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, models indicate it will likely escalate into a Category 4 hurricane as it heads north over the warm waters of the Gulf.
However, it will likely make landfall along the Florida Panhandle. Current forecasts indicate no threat to Texas. Overnight, the projected track of the storm shifted farther east.
Projections as of Noon Monday
I’m posting this because Houston residents may have friends, relatives or travel plans in affected areas. See below.
Tropical storm force winds associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 should arrive in the big bend area of the Florida panhandle sometime between Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
NHC predicts a 50:50 chance for tropical storm force winds extending north into Georgia.
The National Weather Service has this to say for people in the Panhandle and southern Georgia, “There is a potential for significant storm surge; heavy rainfall and flooding; and strong winds across the north and eastern Gulf Coast.”
“Impacts could begin as early as Wednesday night and last into Friday,” says NWS. “More detailed and specific impacts will be highly dependent on future track/intensity and we’ll be including those in future updates in the next day or two.”
Frequency of Major Hurricanes
When/if the Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 reaches 39 MPH, NHC will dub it Helene.
We’ve already had one major hurricane in the Gulf this year – Beryl. The second major hurricane usually develops in the Atlantic Basin by September 19. So, even though this season has fewer than normal named storms, it will have an average number of major hurricanes for this part of the season if Helene becomes a Category 3 or higher.
Current Status
At present, NHC says the area of concern in the northwestern Caribbean between Honduras and Cuba continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images.
A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or so. Models agree that the center of the system should reach the northeast Gulf on Thursday.
Since the disturbance currently lacks a well-defined center, future track adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.
While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the next day or so.
Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening. The sea surface temperature anomaly chart below shows that temperatures in the Caribbean and Gulf are up to 8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average for this time of year.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon.
Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches have already been issued for portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Key Messages
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/23/24
2582 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Potential New Tropical System Headed Toward Central Gulf
9/22/2024 at 6PM – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a 2PM update today that warns of an 80% chance of a potential new tropical system forming in the seven days. They give the new tropical system a 40% chance in the next two days. The system is now centered in the northwestern Caribbean between Honduras and Cuba.
However, NHC predicts the storm will track somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle. While it is no immediate threat to Texas, residents should keep an eye on developments in the next few days, they say.
NHC Graphics
Favorable Environmental Conditions
NHC predicts the track will bend east after crossing between the Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba.
“Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure,” they say. “Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days…”
Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature.
Later this week, the system should move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and “interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system.”
Local Impacts Seen as Limited As of Now
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, said, “The system should lift northward over the Gulf of Mexico by mid to late week. A large upper level low over the southern plains will help draw the tropical system north of northeast toward the US Gulf coast.”
Lindner added that most models are in agreement at this point which makes confidence fairly high. However, he also said, “There may be some small differences in the ultimate track toward the US Gulf coast.”
He concluded, “Guidance also suggests this will be a large tropical system which is capable of moving huge amounts of water in the Gulf.”
“With the current higher than normal fall lunar tides in place, there is some potential for elevated tides along the Texas coast late this week, even for a tropical system passing well to our east.”
Year-to-Date Hurricane Season Behind Average
So far, we have had seven named storms this year:
If this system turns into a named storm, it will become Helene.
Everyone predicted a severe hurricane season this year, but so far, it has not materialized. On average, we have our tenth named storm by now. See below.
All last week, forecasters warned that this storm had a chance of development. And on most days, the chances increased. Keep your eye on this one!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/24
2581 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Is Beryl Debris Cleared from Your Stream or Channel Yet?
9/21/2024 – Is Beryl debris cleared from the stream or channel nearest you yet? Here’s how to report fallen trees when you find them blocking waterways. Hurry. Once the equipment is gone, it will be hard to get it back.
Harris County Flood Control District and FEMA contractors have been hard at work for the last two months removing those blockages. But they have 2500 miles of channels to clear. Some of those miles, like those in Kingwood, are difficult to access and they’re massively clogged with debris.
Ensuring debris is removed involves reporting the precise location of blockages which don’t always have street addresses. If your phone doesn’t embed GPS coordinates in images, identify the location on the channel map in Harris County’s Flood Education Mapping Tool.
In many cases, clearing blockages may also involve negotiating rights of access with contractors across homeowner or trail association property. So make sure you inform your associations, too.
How Debris Creates Hidden Flood Threats
On July 8, Beryl bulldozed its way through Houston. The damage was especially bad in the Lake Houston Area. Trees fell on roofs and power lines everywhere. Many homes still await repair, though power has been restored.
But hidden out of sight, are hundreds, if not thousands of trees that fell into our streams and channels, deep in the woods where most people don’t see them. If left in place, these trees can catch others swept downstream in future floods. And the resulting log dams, can back water up into homes, causing even more damage.
And Beryl left a lot of debris.
Removing 350 Tons from One Channel in One Day
Optimal, a FEMA contractor, said they removed 350 tons of debris from one channel in Kings Forest in one day. The work involved several vehicles. That’s 700,000 pounds.
To put 700,000 pounds in perspective, the average house weighs between 80,000 and 160,000 pounds. So, that’s like removing the equivalent of 5-9 homes blocking a channel every day!
See the pictures below supplied by Chris Bloch, a Bear Branch Trail Association Director. He took them on on 9/18/24 in Kings Forest and Kingwood Lakes.
Here’s what they are up against.
It’s was a messy job. But they removed the threats.
Some blockages may require bigger equipment which is in shorter supply according to Bloch. In those cases, contractors may have to return later. The main thing is to report all the damage you find to HCFCD now. They still have quite a few Kingwood channel sections to clear. But hurry. Hurricane season is far from over.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/24
2580 Days since Hurricane Harvey