9/7/24 – For seven years, I have focused on ways to reduce flooding. But today, I’d like to discuss a big way not to reduce flooding – by deferring maintenance.
Deferring Maintenance: A Bad Idea
One of the most common root causes of flooding that I see is delayed, deferred, overlooked and/or ignored maintenance. You wouldn’t buy a new car and not maintain it. It’s the same way with flood control. But that’s what we’ve been doing.
If you build a channel or a ditch, you should budget routine inspections, and periodic repairs and maintenance.
For a dramatic example, see the two photos below. As I was driving south on Loop 494 this afternoon, I saw a scene near East Memorial Drive that reminded me of a preventable flooding disaster in Porter back in 2018.
Local businesses flooded when the ditch below at the end of the road backed water up.
TxDOT improved the ditch that caused the flooding above. But guess what? The blockage is back. I took the picture below this afternoon.
Blocked ditch on Loop 494 and Memorial Drivein Porter, Montgomery County.
Mike Eberle, a business owner nearby who flooded back in 2018, dubbed this area the Porter Dam. Oops. Back where we started.
The ditch has silted in. And vegetation is growing up through the grate. Meanwhile, debris washed down the ditch and has blocked it even more. It’s only a matter of time before flooding recurs.
Will clearing the Porter Dam be high on TxDOT’s to-do list in the next five days? Probably not. Even though the rain predicted could exceed the amount that caused the flooding above.
Deferred Maintenance: A Problem Everywhere
Deferred maintenance is a huge problem everywhere, not just in Montgomery County or on TxDOT roads. And it’s not just vegetation management.
Erosion, when ignored, can run wild and threaten homes. In the case below, it was neglected so long that trees fell into the ditch and blocked it, backing water up.
Eroded ditch in Huffman. Erosion like this didn’t happen overnight.Eroding ditch in Liberty County has grown more than 80 feet in width in just 10 years and now threatens homes.
And wherever sediment accumulates, it can cause ditches to lose much of their ability to convey stormwater. Bens Branch, for instance, was down to a “2-year level-of-service” in places. That means, water would come out of the banks after a two-year rain. See the first picture below.
Bens Branch at Rocky Woods in January 2021 before start of clean-out project. Over the years, deferred maintenance had reduced the conveyance of the stream.
However, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) initiated a clean-out effort to restore the conveyance of Ben’s Branch from Northpark Drive to Kings Harbor. In this section alone, HCFCD removed more than 10,000 cubic yards of accumulated sediment.
Same area four months later after restoration. Greenish substance on banks is hydromulch.
Plea for Tax Increase to Improve Maintenance
In Harris County, HCFCD created this presentation on deferred maintenance for Commissioners Court consideration on 8/15/24. It makes the case for a potential tax increase which voters will be asked to approve on November 5.
Key points:
We have a huge amount of drainage infrastructure requiring regular maintenance.
Much of the infrastructure is nearing the end of its useful life (when it costs more to maintain).
And every year, we add more and more infrastructure requiring more maintenance.
But investment in maintenance has been flat over time (see graph below).
Maintenance investment has lagged behind capital improvement spending by as much as 9 to 1.
Flood control is asking for an additional $110 million for its maintenance budget to help remedy these problems. Any increase in tax revenue would go to the HCFCD’s dedicated maintenance account. Those funds are marked specifically for maintenance efforts and support services, according to Emily Woodell, a department spokesperson.
Fool Me Twice?
I can support the HCFCD request. But before I vote for it, I want to see language in the proposal that guarantees it won’t all be spent somewhere else. I’d also like to see language that revokes the tax increase if it is. Or if:
Maintenance is delayed here longer than anywhere else.
Social factors, not flood risk, determine the distribution of dollars.
County leaders try to redefine the commonly accepted, dictionary meanings of terms like “equity” or “worst.”
We’ve been burned by certain commissioners who flagrantly renege on promises made in Commissioners Court. I won’t let that happen again. As the old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
I intend to read this proposition very, very closely. And when I step into the voting booth, I won’t be hoping for the best. I’ll be fearing how I’ll get screwed again, exactly like we did with the 2018 and 2022 Bonds.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/24
2566 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/CommonsErosion07-copy.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2024-09-07 20:33:522024-09-20 12:21:03How NOT to Reduce Flooding: Deferring Maintenance
9/6/24 – Between yesterday and today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico for next week. Yesterday, NHC gave that orange area a 10% chance of development in the next seven days. Earlier this afternoon, they updated that to 40%. And by this evening, they upgraded it again to 50%.
Also, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a gale watch for offshore waters tomorrow. And NWS predicts another 4-10 inches of rain for the Houston area next week.
Tropical Activity Heating Up
According to the National Hurricane Center, “A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.”
Tropical outlook as of 1:50 PM EDT, 9/6/24
Here’s what those two areas currently look like on a satellite photo.
Tropics at 3:30PM CDT on 9/6/24
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea and the surface low over the NW Gulf will merge over the western Gulf going into early next week. As high pressure over the plains moves eastward the steering flow will turn to the south and begin to lift whatever is in the western Gulf northward toward the TX coast.”
Another 4-10 Inches of Rain Predicted for Next Week
Lindner predicts increasing moisture late Monday with a much more significant surge of moisture coming into the area starting on Tuesday. Regardless of tropical formation, rains will spread northward from the Gulf into the Houston area. Heavy rainfall looks possible into the middle of next week.
The National Weather Service predicts accumulations in the next seven days could range from 4-10 inches in the Houston region. The larger accumulations will be near the coast. Rainfall totals offshore could range up to 20 inches!
Compare dark to light green peaks in bottom graph.
High Winds, Gale Watch Saturday
The National Weather Service has issued a gale watch for Saturday morning through evening as high pressure pushes the moisture currently over us to the south and then east.
Ironically, this will usher in drier weather for Sunday, but it will make boating dangerous on Saturday. North winds will average 25-35 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Seas will average 9-11 feet.
Peak of Hurricane Season Just Days Away
Earlier this year, experts predicted an extremely active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. But so far, we’ve had only five named storms.
And the peak of hurricane season occurs on September 10 with the most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
Best to bookmark the National Hurricane Center home page and check it daily for the next few weeks. This is the time of year when NHC updates its site every few hours. So, they have the most up-to-date forecasts and they are the acknowledged source of definitive information about tropical systems.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/6/2024
2565 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/two_atl_7d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-09-06 16:46:352024-09-06 18:37:46Chances of Tropical Formation in Gulf Increasing for Next Week
9/5/2024 – The Congressional Budget Office has produced a series of reports that provides a wealth of flood data.
Economist Evan Herrnstadt, Ph.D., was interviewed today in a First Street Foundation webinar. He has produced an impressive, data-packed series of reports on different aspects of flooding for public-policy makers. Herrnstadt is the Principal Analyst in the Microeconomic Studies Division of the Congressional Budget Office.
Nine Studies Examine Financial, Demographic Impacts of Flooding
To make his team’s work easier to find and review, I’ve posted their studies on the Reports Page of ReduceFlooding.com under a new Congressional Budget Office Tab. Below are links to and one sentence descriptions for each of the nine reports.
Climate Work provides an overview of several different studies and presents key findings. It’s a good starting point.
Effects of Flood Damage on the Subsidy Cost of Federally Backed Mortgages. Uses data on mortgages and expected flood damage for each residential property in the United States to examine how much flood damage is expected to increase the cost of federally backed mortgages (referred to as the subsidy cost).
Flood Insurance in Communities at Risk of Flooding. Examines how properties at risk of flooding share the cost of NFIP policies across communities with different economic and demographic characteristics.
Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and Homeowner’s Insurance. Analyzes recent changes in property insurance markets and considers alternative insurance products as well as policy approaches to increase the availability and affordability of insurance for homeowners and renters.
Communities at Risk of Flooding. Examines how projected flood risk varies across communities with different economic and demographic characteristics in two multiyear projection periods, one centered on 2020 and the other centered on 2050.
The wealth of flood data in these reports is national, not local. Regardless, good economists have a way of clearing out the cobwebs. And Herrnstadt clearly knows how to put things in perspective. I will refer to these reports from time to time in the future.
For now, let me just quote a couple eye-bulging stats from the last report. “Flood Damage avoided by Potential Spending on Property-Level Adaptations” looks at buyouts and home elevations. When looking at 1.3 million homes, Herrnstadt found that avoided costs averaged $2.69 for every $1 invested. If those projects were all completed, they would cost a total of $193 billion and prevent $519 billion of expected damages during the next 30 years.
In extreme cases, Herrnstadt found the payback ratio could be 6 to 1. And that doesn’t even include “pain and suffering” costs associated with flood damage.
This data shows how we could be saving hundreds of billions of dollars. These reports are literally gold mines of data.
For the First Street Foundation’s interview with Herrnstadt, see this YouTube video.
Learn more about the purpose and methodologies of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/5/24
2564 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Avoid-Damage-Per-Dollar-Spent.png?fit=2108%2C1596&ssl=115962108adminadmin2024-09-05 18:41:302024-09-06 09:06:21Congressional Budget Office Provides Wealth of Flood Data
How NOT to Reduce Flooding: Deferring Maintenance
9/7/24 – For seven years, I have focused on ways to reduce flooding. But today, I’d like to discuss a big way not to reduce flooding – by deferring maintenance.
Deferring Maintenance: A Bad Idea
One of the most common root causes of flooding that I see is delayed, deferred, overlooked and/or ignored maintenance. You wouldn’t buy a new car and not maintain it. It’s the same way with flood control. But that’s what we’ve been doing.
If you build a channel or a ditch, you should budget routine inspections, and periodic repairs and maintenance.
For a dramatic example, see the two photos below. As I was driving south on Loop 494 this afternoon, I saw a scene near East Memorial Drive that reminded me of a preventable flooding disaster in Porter back in 2018.
TxDOT improved the ditch that caused the flooding above. But guess what? The blockage is back. I took the picture below this afternoon.
Mike Eberle, a business owner nearby who flooded back in 2018, dubbed this area the Porter Dam. Oops. Back where we started.
The ditch has silted in. And vegetation is growing up through the grate. Meanwhile, debris washed down the ditch and has blocked it even more. It’s only a matter of time before flooding recurs.
And just when we have a potential tropical storm brewing in the gulf. The National Hurricane Center gives it an 80% chance of formation within the next five days.
Will clearing the Porter Dam be high on TxDOT’s to-do list in the next five days? Probably not. Even though the rain predicted could exceed the amount that caused the flooding above.
Deferred Maintenance: A Problem Everywhere
Deferred maintenance is a huge problem everywhere, not just in Montgomery County or on TxDOT roads. And it’s not just vegetation management.
Erosion, when ignored, can run wild and threaten homes. In the case below, it was neglected so long that trees fell into the ditch and blocked it, backing water up.
And wherever sediment accumulates, it can cause ditches to lose much of their ability to convey stormwater. Bens Branch, for instance, was down to a “2-year level-of-service” in places. That means, water would come out of the banks after a two-year rain. See the first picture below.
However, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) initiated a clean-out effort to restore the conveyance of Ben’s Branch from Northpark Drive to Kings Harbor. In this section alone, HCFCD removed more than 10,000 cubic yards of accumulated sediment.
Plea for Tax Increase to Improve Maintenance
In Harris County, HCFCD created this presentation on deferred maintenance for Commissioners Court consideration on 8/15/24. It makes the case for a potential tax increase which voters will be asked to approve on November 5.
Key points:
Flood control is asking for an additional $110 million for its maintenance budget to help remedy these problems. Any increase in tax revenue would go to the HCFCD’s dedicated maintenance account. Those funds are marked specifically for maintenance efforts and support services, according to Emily Woodell, a department spokesperson.
Fool Me Twice?
I can support the HCFCD request. But before I vote for it, I want to see language in the proposal that guarantees it won’t all be spent somewhere else. I’d also like to see language that revokes the tax increase if it is. Or if:
We’ve been burned by certain commissioners who flagrantly renege on promises made in Commissioners Court. I won’t let that happen again. As the old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
I intend to read this proposition very, very closely. And when I step into the voting booth, I won’t be hoping for the best. I’ll be fearing how I’ll get screwed again, exactly like we did with the 2018 and 2022 Bonds.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/24
2566 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Chances of Tropical Formation in Gulf Increasing for Next Week
9/6/24 – Between yesterday and today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico for next week. Yesterday, NHC gave that orange area a 10% chance of development in the next seven days. Earlier this afternoon, they updated that to 40%. And by this evening, they upgraded it again to 50%.
Also, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a gale watch for offshore waters tomorrow. And NWS predicts another 4-10 inches of rain for the Houston area next week.
Tropical Activity Heating Up
According to the National Hurricane Center, “A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.”
Here’s what those two areas currently look like on a satellite photo.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea and the surface low over the NW Gulf will merge over the western Gulf going into early next week. As high pressure over the plains moves eastward the steering flow will turn to the south and begin to lift whatever is in the western Gulf northward toward the TX coast.”
Another 4-10 Inches of Rain Predicted for Next Week
Lindner predicts increasing moisture late Monday with a much more significant surge of moisture coming into the area starting on Tuesday. Regardless of tropical formation, rains will spread northward from the Gulf into the Houston area. Heavy rainfall looks possible into the middle of next week.
The National Weather Service predicts accumulations in the next seven days could range from 4-10 inches in the Houston region. The larger accumulations will be near the coast. Rainfall totals offshore could range up to 20 inches!
We’ve already achieved our average rainfall for the year. Yet we have almost 4 months yet to go.
High Winds, Gale Watch Saturday
The National Weather Service has issued a gale watch for Saturday morning through evening as high pressure pushes the moisture currently over us to the south and then east.
Ironically, this will usher in drier weather for Sunday, but it will make boating dangerous on Saturday. North winds will average 25-35 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Seas will average 9-11 feet.
Peak of Hurricane Season Just Days Away
Earlier this year, experts predicted an extremely active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. But so far, we’ve had only five named storms.
That puts us three behind the average for the last 30 years. Usually, we get the eighth named storm of the season by September 9th.
And the peak of hurricane season occurs on September 10 with the most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
Best to bookmark the National Hurricane Center home page and check it daily for the next few weeks. This is the time of year when NHC updates its site every few hours. So, they have the most up-to-date forecasts and they are the acknowledged source of definitive information about tropical systems.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/6/2024
2565 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Congressional Budget Office Provides Wealth of Flood Data
9/5/2024 – The Congressional Budget Office has produced a series of reports that provides a wealth of flood data.
Economist Evan Herrnstadt, Ph.D., was interviewed today in a First Street Foundation webinar. He has produced an impressive, data-packed series of reports on different aspects of flooding for public-policy makers. Herrnstadt is the Principal Analyst in the Microeconomic Studies Division of the Congressional Budget Office.
Nine Studies Examine Financial, Demographic Impacts of Flooding
To make his team’s work easier to find and review, I’ve posted their studies on the Reports Page of ReduceFlooding.com under a new Congressional Budget Office Tab. Below are links to and one sentence descriptions for each of the nine reports.
Clearing out the Cobwebs
The wealth of flood data in these reports is national, not local. Regardless, good economists have a way of clearing out the cobwebs. And Herrnstadt clearly knows how to put things in perspective. I will refer to these reports from time to time in the future.
For now, let me just quote a couple eye-bulging stats from the last report. “Flood Damage avoided by Potential Spending on Property-Level Adaptations” looks at buyouts and home elevations. When looking at 1.3 million homes, Herrnstadt found that avoided costs averaged $2.69 for every $1 invested. If those projects were all completed, they would cost a total of $193 billion and prevent $519 billion of expected damages during the next 30 years.
In extreme cases, Herrnstadt found the payback ratio could be 6 to 1. And that doesn’t even include “pain and suffering” costs associated with flood damage.
This data shows how we could be saving hundreds of billions of dollars. These reports are literally gold mines of data.
For the First Street Foundation’s interview with Herrnstadt, see this YouTube video.
Learn more about the purpose and methodologies of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/5/24
2564 Days since Hurricane Harvey