4/22/25 – HCFCD has added Microsoft Power BI capabilities to its website. They let users interactively explore and visualize HCFCD spending by watershed. Data goes back to the start of the 2018 Flood Bond. Users can even sort spending data by:
Source of funds (Bond, district taxes, or partners)
Bond Project ID
Calendar year and quarter
Watershed
Project group
Funding source
Project stage
Type of activity
See below.
Total HCFCD spending by watershed between start of flood bond and end of Q1 2025
Using those “filters” on the left-hand side of the page instantly reconfigures two charts:
Watersheds in a bar graph, rank ordered by selected filters (shown above)
Incremental and cumulative spending over time using selected filter(s) (shown below).
The BI in Power BI stands for Business Intelligence. It’s an extremely powerful and fast way to explore massive data sets online.
By “right clicking” on a selection on a PC (or “control clicking” on a Mac), users can pull up tabular breakdowns of the data with exact amounts using any variables they select. From there, they can drill up or down in the data.
Analysis that used to take weeks can now be done in seconds.
Bob Rehak
Thank you Microsoft and thank you HCFCD.
Differences Between New and Previous Visualizations
There is one huge difference between the reports I have been compiling from Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests and the Microsoft Power BI information. I tracked HCFCD spending from Hurricane Harvey starting in the fourth quarter of 2017. The Power BI data starts after voters approved the flood bond a year AFTER Harvey.
Instead of making FOIA requests each quarter, I plan to use this data from now on. There’s a little less of it. But the improvement in convenience will make analysis much faster.
What Latest Data Shows
Several things jump out at you when you first come to the new HCFCD spending page. Since Q3 2018:
HCFCD has spent more than twice as much on County-Wide Projects (which include subdivision drainage projects) as it has on any single watershed.
More than half of all spending has gone to County-Wide Projects and four watersheds: Cypress Creek, Brays Bayou, White Oak Bayou and Greens Bayou.
The overall spending rate is now 39% of what it was at the peak of activity in 2020. Compare the next two screen captures.
Spending for 2020 by project phase.Spending through Q1 2025 by project phase.
Note: the graphs above make the spending drop look even sharper than it is. Remember the second graph shows only one quarter of spending for 2025 versus whole-year spending for other years.
To calculate 39%, I annualized Q1 2025 spending. 2024, the last full year of spending, is down 54% compared to 2020.
Drilling down a little bit in the data, I also learned that, to date, the San Jacinto watershed (the County’s largest) has had only $18 million invested in construction of flood-mitigation improvements. That’s less than a fifth of what the top four dollar getters have received.
When looking at construction spending only, the entire San Jacinto Watershed has received only $18 million out of $900 million spent by HCFCD since Harvey.
That’s less than 2% of the spending that actually reduces flooding. Other investments in the watershed have primarily been studies that talk about plans for improvements without really making them.
Where to Find Power BI Graphs, Tables
The Microsoft Power BI tables are buried on the HCFCD site. To see them, you click on:
The Activity Page, which contains only one sentence of copy.
I asked HCFCD why the page is buried. They responded that the page has only been up for about a month and that they are still making some usability tweaks before advertising it widely.
Below are some other things I would do to improve the user experience.
Wish List
While much more user friendly than an Excel spreadsheet, the HCFCD’s Power BI page could benefit from some instructions. For instance, there are no instructions on how to find the underlying data (right- or control-clicking).
Q1 2025 data revealed by control-clicking on the Q1 2025 line in the second Incremental Spending graph above.
And through experimentation, I learned that “command clicking” on a Mac lets you select multiple variables in a filter, i.e., multiple watersheds, years, etc.
HCFCD used to be able to sort this data by precinct.
They also have information about the low-to-moderate income populations in each watershed and the amount of damage per watershed in various storms. But that sorting option isn’t available either.
A cross-link to project descriptions so that users can easily select projects of interest to them would also help. Right now, they’re asked to choose from a long list of numbers that are meaningless to most people. I had to open the project list archived on ReduceFlooding to identify what was what. It sure would be helpful to include that data, too.
Making data readily available has a way of anchoring political debates in reality. And that, in my humble opinion, is a valuable thing. It creates a data-driven culture that brings people together rather than having them argue over rumors.
4/20/25 – There are far more flood-risk-reduction proposals (studies, projects and strategies) in Texas’ first state flood plan than funds to finance them.
Tressa Olsen, Assistant Director of Flood Planning for the Texas Water Development Board, spoke about the plan at a meeting of the Society of American Military Engineers on 4/14/25.
TWDB’s Assistant Director of Flood Planning, Tressa Olsen.
Altogether, the 15 regional flood planning groups in the state identified approximately 5,000 proposals with a combined price tag of $54.5 billion. But, she says, the legislature has allocated only approximately $1.4 billion since 2019 for them.
Page 13 from Olsen’s presentation on state flood plan. To see her entire presentation, click here.
That underscores the need for better floodplain management practices that can prevent rather than correct flooding problems – especially in the San Jacinto watershed. After more flood issues become apparent in the next big storm, it may take generations and billions of dollars to remediate them.
Right now, 14 bills pending in the state legislature mention the state’s Flood Infrastructure Fund. But most of those bills focus on prioritizing projects. Not one bill establishes a steady income stream for the Fund which helps finance mitigation projects in the State Flood Plan.
Proposed Ryko Development Makes Case For Intensive Scrutiny
Regardless, every month, it seems more and more developments are moving into floodplains and closer to rivers. Major storms can turn those rivers and streams into raging torrents that destroy homes and lives.
Last week, I focused on the proposed Ryko development immediately west of Kingwood in Montgomery County.
The company hopes to build 7,000 homes on 5,500 flood-prone acres near the confluence of Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork.
Ryko’s land lies within the area bounded by Spring Creek (left) and the San Jacinto West Fork (right).
North of Ryko’s land, about halfway to the Grand Parkway and on property 30 feet higher than the confluence, is an existing subdivision called Bender’s Landing Estates. (See top of map below.) One resident told me that 53 homes there flooded during Harvey.
So, Ryko’s property below Benders Landing has even higher flood risk. See red outline superimposed over FEMA’s map below.
Ryko property bounded by red. Cross-hatched = floodway. Aqua = 1% annual chance. Brown = .2% annual chance.The Houston area has had four .2% annual chance floods in the last 10 years.
As the Federal government scales back disaster relief and flood mitigation assistance, and as the State doesn’t step in to provide steady funding for mitigation efforts in the State Flood Plan, the responsibility to prevent flooding will increasingly fall onto the shoulders of local officials.
But that will require local officials to update and integrate data on their own. FEMA is already years behind schedule in releasing new flood maps for the Houston region.
Elevation Data Acquired in 1988
“Base Flood Elevation” in engineer-speak is the expected height of a 1% annual-chance (100-year) flood. FEMA provides a Base-Flood-Elevation Viewer that estimates the height above ground for both 1% and .2% Annual Chance (500-year) Floods.
However, FEMA uses elevation data acquired in 1988 to estimate the height of base floods above ground level.
A whole page in FEMA’s Base-Flood-Elevation estimates discusses disclaimers. “Everyone is at risk,” it says. “The chances of experiencing a flood can vary due to unevaluated conditions, such as the unstudied effects of community growth and development or intense storms uncharacteristic to historical trends.”
Extreme Risk Requires Extreme Caution
FEMA’s reports even suggest actions homeowners can take to reduce their flood risk and insurance premiums, such as elevating slabs. But by how much? FEMA doesn’t say. And elevation can be a shifting target.
One of the “unevaluated conditions and unstudied effects of community growth” is subsidence.
Harris-Galveston Subsidence District says subsidence at a gage next to Ryko’s property averages .73 inches per year due to groundwater withdrawal. Adding 7000 new homes would accelerate subsidence.
0.73 inches per year translates to approximately two feet of sinking during a 30-year mortgage. And that’s twice as much as the freeboard factor (safety margin) used to establish the elevation of foundations above expected floods in Montgomery County.
MoCo only requires foundations of new homes to be one foot above the base flood elevation (100-year floodplain), And we’ve had four 500-year floods in the area in the last 10-years. The image below shows what one of those floods did to townhomes in Forest Cove about a mile downstream from Ryko’s property.
Forest Cove Townhome destroyed by Harvey.
Montgomery County Commissioners beware!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/21/25
2792 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/20250414-DSC_1999.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2025-04-21 17:37:022025-04-21 22:48:08Far More Proposals in State Flood Plan Than Funds For Them
4/19/25 – Ryko, a development company, has announced plans to build 7,000 new homes in an environmentally sensitive, flood-prone area immediately west of Kingwood. Moreover, the area already experiences the highest subsidence in the north Houston region.
Residents in the area currently use groundwater. Assuming an average household size of 2.5 people, Ryko would add 17,500 new residents to the area. That could accelerate declines in groundwater levels and increase subsidence.
Reviewing the Subsidence District’s latest annual report revealed that the issue at this one reporting station is part of a larger problem. And the problem is very bad in southern Montgomery County.
Impacts of Subsidence
I have been posting about the issue for five-plus years. Subsidence happens too slowly to notice in most cases. But over time, it can be very disruptive:
Excessive groundwater withdrawals can create bowls in the landscape that alter the gradient of rivers and streams. That can increase local flooding. For instance, when land at the county line sinks faster than land at the Lake Houston Dam, it tilts the lake toward the county line.
Projected subsidence rates upstream could erase your freeboard factor (the height at which your home was built above the 100-year floodplain). That would increase your flood risk.
Subsidence can also crack pipelines, storm sewers, and pavement.
Uneven settling can cause your doors and windows to stick; crack foundations; split wallboard; and break tile.
Subsidence can also trigger long-dormant geologic faults.
Front steps of Woodland’s homeowner Dr. Mark Meinrath in 1992 and 2014. Part of Meinrath’s home straddles a fault which subsidence triggered. Relative to the rest of his house, these front steps dropped 9.9 inches in 22 years.
For more examples of the impacts of subsidence in the north Houston area, visit StopOurSinking.com, a site developed by a Woodlands resident. There, subsidence has triggered faults and flooded multi-million-dollar homes through the “bowl effect.”
High Cost of a Little Flooding
Getting even an inch of water in your home can be very costly. According to FEMA, just 1 inch of floodwater in an average 2,000 square foot home can cost $10,000 to $20,000 to repair.
Higher-end finishes, such as wood floors, built-in cabinetry, granite, etc., can push those estimates past $25,000.
Why is one inch so expensive?
Flooring usually needs to be completely replaced (carpet, wood, sometimes even tile if the water gets underneath).
Baseboards and lower drywall (often up to 2 feet) usually must be cut out and replaced.
Insulation in walls may need replacing if water wicks up.
Cabinet bases and interior doors are often ruined.
Appliances like washers, dryers, and even low-mounted electrical outlets might be affected.
Mold prevention requires fast and sometimes professional drying and remediation.
In homes larger than 2,000 square feet, the cost would go up proportionately. For instance, FEMA estimates repair costs for a 3,000 square foot home to be 50% greater – in the $15,000 – $30,000+ range.
Disasters/accidents are rarely caused by one thing. They usually result from a combination of factors eroding margins of safety.
For instance, the risk of a driving accident increases when you’re tired, it’s dark and the pavement is wet. That’s why it’s important to pay attention to little things that can degrade your margin of safety. They may not be so little in the next big storm.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/19/2025
2790 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Subsidence-in-Ryko-Area-copy-scaled-e1745084712556.jpg?fit=1100%2C628&ssl=16281100adminadmin2025-04-19 12:57:472025-04-21 09:50:29Building 7,000 Homes Here Would Accelerate Subsidence
New Web Page Helps Users Explore HCFCD Spending Trends
4/22/25 – HCFCD has added Microsoft Power BI capabilities to its website. They let users interactively explore and visualize HCFCD spending by watershed. Data goes back to the start of the 2018 Flood Bond. Users can even sort spending data by:
See below.
Using those “filters” on the left-hand side of the page instantly reconfigures two charts:
The BI in Power BI stands for Business Intelligence. It’s an extremely powerful and fast way to explore massive data sets online.
By “right clicking” on a selection on a PC (or “control clicking” on a Mac), users can pull up tabular breakdowns of the data with exact amounts using any variables they select. From there, they can drill up or down in the data.
Thank you Microsoft and thank you HCFCD.
Differences Between New and Previous Visualizations
There is one huge difference between the reports I have been compiling from Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests and the Microsoft Power BI information. I tracked HCFCD spending from Hurricane Harvey starting in the fourth quarter of 2017. The Power BI data starts after voters approved the flood bond a year AFTER Harvey.
Instead of making FOIA requests each quarter, I plan to use this data from now on. There’s a little less of it. But the improvement in convenience will make analysis much faster.
What Latest Data Shows
Several things jump out at you when you first come to the new HCFCD spending page. Since Q3 2018:
Note: the graphs above make the spending drop look even sharper than it is. Remember the second graph shows only one quarter of spending for 2025 versus whole-year spending for other years.
To calculate 39%, I annualized Q1 2025 spending. 2024, the last full year of spending, is down 54% compared to 2020.
Drilling down a little bit in the data, I also learned that, to date, the San Jacinto watershed (the County’s largest) has had only $18 million invested in construction of flood-mitigation improvements. That’s less than a fifth of what the top four dollar getters have received.
That’s less than 2% of the spending that actually reduces flooding. Other investments in the watershed have primarily been studies that talk about plans for improvements without really making them.
Where to Find Power BI Graphs, Tables
The Microsoft Power BI tables are buried on the HCFCD site. To see them, you click on:
I asked HCFCD why the page is buried. They responded that the page has only been up for about a month and that they are still making some usability tweaks before advertising it widely.
Below are some other things I would do to improve the user experience.
Wish List
While much more user friendly than an Excel spreadsheet, the HCFCD’s Power BI page could benefit from some instructions. For instance, there are no instructions on how to find the underlying data (right- or control-clicking).
And through experimentation, I learned that “command clicking” on a Mac lets you select multiple variables in a filter, i.e., multiple watersheds, years, etc.
HCFCD used to be able to sort this data by precinct.
They also have information about the low-to-moderate income populations in each watershed and the amount of damage per watershed in various storms. But that sorting option isn’t available either.
A cross-link to project descriptions so that users can easily select projects of interest to them would also help. Right now, they’re asked to choose from a long list of numbers that are meaningless to most people. I had to open the project list archived on ReduceFlooding to identify what was what. It sure would be helpful to include that data, too.
Making data readily available has a way of anchoring political debates in reality. And that, in my humble opinion, is a valuable thing. It creates a data-driven culture that brings people together rather than having them argue over rumors.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/22/25
2793 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Far More Proposals in State Flood Plan Than Funds For Them
4/20/25 – There are far more flood-risk-reduction proposals (studies, projects and strategies) in Texas’ first state flood plan than funds to finance them.
Tressa Olsen, Assistant Director of Flood Planning for the Texas Water Development Board, spoke about the plan at a meeting of the Society of American Military Engineers on 4/14/25.
Altogether, the 15 regional flood planning groups in the state identified approximately 5,000 proposals with a combined price tag of $54.5 billion. But, she says, the legislature has allocated only approximately $1.4 billion since 2019 for them.
Of the $54.5 billion, more than $34 billion are in the San Jacinto river basin.
That underscores the need for better floodplain management practices that can prevent rather than correct flooding problems – especially in the San Jacinto watershed. After more flood issues become apparent in the next big storm, it may take generations and billions of dollars to remediate them.
Right now, 14 bills pending in the state legislature mention the state’s Flood Infrastructure Fund. But most of those bills focus on prioritizing projects. Not one bill establishes a steady income stream for the Fund which helps finance mitigation projects in the State Flood Plan.
Proposed Ryko Development Makes Case For Intensive Scrutiny
Regardless, every month, it seems more and more developments are moving into floodplains and closer to rivers. Major storms can turn those rivers and streams into raging torrents that destroy homes and lives.
Last week, I focused on the proposed Ryko development immediately west of Kingwood in Montgomery County.
The company hopes to build 7,000 homes on 5,500 flood-prone acres near the confluence of Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork.
North of Ryko’s land, about halfway to the Grand Parkway and on property 30 feet higher than the confluence, is an existing subdivision called Bender’s Landing Estates. (See top of map below.) One resident told me that 53 homes there flooded during Harvey.
So, Ryko’s property below Benders Landing has even higher flood risk. See red outline superimposed over FEMA’s map below.
As the Federal government scales back disaster relief and flood mitigation assistance, and as the State doesn’t step in to provide steady funding for mitigation efforts in the State Flood Plan, the responsibility to prevent flooding will increasingly fall onto the shoulders of local officials.
But that will require local officials to update and integrate data on their own. FEMA is already years behind schedule in releasing new flood maps for the Houston region.
Elevation Data Acquired in 1988
“Base Flood Elevation” in engineer-speak is the expected height of a 1% annual-chance (100-year) flood. FEMA provides a Base-Flood-Elevation Viewer that estimates the height above ground for both 1% and .2% Annual Chance (500-year) Floods.
However, FEMA uses elevation data acquired in 1988 to estimate the height of base floods above ground level.
Near the confluence of Spring Creek and the West Fork, Ryko land would be under more than 25 feet of floodwater in a .2% annual chance flood. A point near Benders Landing Estates on much higher Ryko ground would be under 7.3 feet of water in the same flood.
A whole page in FEMA’s Base-Flood-Elevation estimates discusses disclaimers. “Everyone is at risk,” it says. “The chances of experiencing a flood can vary due to unevaluated conditions, such as the unstudied effects of community growth and development or intense storms uncharacteristic to historical trends.”
Extreme Risk Requires Extreme Caution
FEMA’s reports even suggest actions homeowners can take to reduce their flood risk and insurance premiums, such as elevating slabs. But by how much? FEMA doesn’t say. And elevation can be a shifting target.
One of the “unevaluated conditions and unstudied effects of community growth” is subsidence.
Harris-Galveston Subsidence District says subsidence at a gage next to Ryko’s property averages .73 inches per year due to groundwater withdrawal. Adding 7000 new homes would accelerate subsidence.
0.73 inches per year translates to approximately two feet of sinking during a 30-year mortgage. And that’s twice as much as the freeboard factor (safety margin) used to establish the elevation of foundations above expected floods in Montgomery County.
MoCo only requires foundations of new homes to be one foot above the base flood elevation (100-year floodplain), And we’ve had four 500-year floods in the area in the last 10-years. The image below shows what one of those floods did to townhomes in Forest Cove about a mile downstream from Ryko’s property.
Montgomery County Commissioners beware!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/21/25
2792 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Building 7,000 Homes Here Would Accelerate Subsidence
4/19/25 – Ryko, a development company, has announced plans to build 7,000 new homes in an environmentally sensitive, flood-prone area immediately west of Kingwood. Moreover, the area already experiences the highest subsidence in the north Houston region.
Residents in the area currently use groundwater. Assuming an average household size of 2.5 people, Ryko would add 17,500 new residents to the area. That could accelerate declines in groundwater levels and increase subsidence.
Reviewing the Subsidence District’s latest annual report revealed that the issue at this one reporting station is part of a larger problem. And the problem is very bad in southern Montgomery County.
Impacts of Subsidence
I have been posting about the issue for five-plus years. Subsidence happens too slowly to notice in most cases. But over time, it can be very disruptive:
For more examples of the impacts of subsidence in the north Houston area, visit StopOurSinking.com, a site developed by a Woodlands resident. There, subsidence has triggered faults and flooded multi-million-dollar homes through the “bowl effect.”
High Cost of a Little Flooding
Getting even an inch of water in your home can be very costly. According to FEMA, just 1 inch of floodwater in an average 2,000 square foot home can cost $10,000 to $20,000 to repair.
Higher-end finishes, such as wood floors, built-in cabinetry, granite, etc., can push those estimates past $25,000.
Why is one inch so expensive?
In homes larger than 2,000 square feet, the cost would go up proportionately. For instance, FEMA estimates repair costs for a 3,000 square foot home to be 50% greater – in the $15,000 – $30,000+ range.
Disasters/accidents are rarely caused by one thing. They usually result from a combination of factors eroding margins of safety.
For instance, the risk of a driving accident increases when you’re tired, it’s dark and the pavement is wet. That’s why it’s important to pay attention to little things that can degrade your margin of safety. They may not be so little in the next big storm.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/19/2025
2790 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.