11/7/24 10 AM – Late-season Hurricane Rafael briefly intensified into a Category 3 storm yesterday as it crossed over Cuba. But since then it has gradually weakened. This morning, Hurricane Hunters measured the sustained wind speed at 100 MPH, making it a Cat 2 storm. Cat 2 ranges from 96 to 110 MPH.
Rafael in center near western tip of Cuba will be blocked from moving north by high pressure descending from Great Plains.Satellite image taken at 10 AM Houston time.
Recent aircraft fixes indicate Rafael is beginning a leftward (west) turn toward Mexico. NHC notes greater than average uncertainty concerning its track. But if Rafael keeps moving it that direction, the storm would move away from Houston and the northern Gulf of Mexico.
The current forward motion estimate is 9 MPH.
Further Weakening Predicted
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts further weakening today as Rafael encounters minor to moderate wind sheer and drier air pushing down from the north. Flight crews have already noted that the eyewall has opened up to the south and southwest.
Rafael’s central pressure has risen slightly to around 971 mb. NHC expects the hurricane to move into an even drier airmass during the next few days. They say that despite the weakening, Rafael should remain a hurricane through the weekend.
Currently, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. In its latest update, NHC predicts that tropical storm force winds will not likely reach the Houston area. They say the chance of that is less than 5%.
Main Impact Will be High Waves
The main effect felt in southeast Texas will be high waves. At high tide, they could cause minor coastal flooding.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, with Rafael on its projected track, “…large long period swells of 6-10 feet will begin to reach the Texas coast this weekend. When combined with NE winds over the local waters, tides will increase to 3.5-4.0 ft above the barnacle level.”
“This is right on the cusp of coastal flooding thresholds along the upper Texas coast. During high tides into the weekend, some minor coastal flooding may be possible especially on the Gulf facing beaches where elevated wave action will be in place,” said Lindner early this morning.
For those who work offshore, waves could go even higher. At 10:12 AM EST, NHC issued an offshore waters forecast for the Gulf. It says that for the west-central Gulf (91W to 94W longitude and 22N to 26N latitude), seas could reach 16-24 feet in NE to E swells this Saturday.
NHC also says that swells generated by Rafael should spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Late Season Oddity
Lindner noted that it is rare for a hurricane this late in the season to move due west across the entire Gulf of Mexico. The only such similar instance, he says, was hurricane Jeanne from 1980 (Nov 12-15).
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/7/24
2627 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/145523_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-11-07 10:40:112024-11-07 18:57:26Rafael Weakens, Turns West
11/6/24 – Voters narrowly approved Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) Proposition A, a 63% tax increase, by a little more than 2 percent on Election Day. However, Prop A failed dramatically in the underserved Lake Houston Area by almost 13 percent – for a total 15.4 percentage-point swing.
The difference underscores frustration over past promises broken, skepticism about future fairness, and doubt about whether area residents will see any benefit from the tax increase.
The Lake Houston Area, which suffered the highest flooding in the county during Harvey, has consistently been shorted by HCFCD in both capital improvement spending from the flood bond and maintenance dollars. The upper San Jacinto watershed drains an area 50% larger than Harris County through Lake Houston. But quarter after quarter, Lake Houston Area watersheds rank in the bottom half of all flood-control mitigation spending.
And when you rank watersheds by maintenance dollars per stream mile, the area ranks in the bottom third of all watersheds.
Possible Reasons Residents Voted Against
In voting against the tax increase yesterday, it’s not clear whether Lake Houston Area voters rejected the massive tax increase because they felt they would not benefit from it.
They may have also wanted to send a message to the 4:1 Democratic majority on Commissioner’s Court about being treated fairly. That majority has twice reneged on recent promises:
Then they adopted an equity funding allocation formula that allocates flood-bond dollars by the percentage of low-to-moderate income voters in an area.
The formula does not consider threats to infrastructure, flood-related deaths, depth of flooding, flood risk, or damaged structures.
In fact, the County’s current administration has repeatedly failed to publicly release flood-risk data.
Since the passage of the 2018 Flood Bond, HCFCD has invested more than $200 million in the Brays Bayou watershed. Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives in that watershed. Meanwhile, HCFCD has spent a fifth of that in the San Jacinto watershed and one-thirtieth that amount in the Luce Bayou watershed.
To sell the 2022 Road and Parks Bond, Democratic commissioners promised that each of the four Precincts would receive at least a minimum of $220 million. After that bond passed, they allocated $157 million to the lone Republican precinct…which includes half the roads that the county maintains.
Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me…
Lake Houston Area voters were not going to be fooled a third time.
After previous bait-and-switch schemes, I personally wanted to see specific ballot language that guaranteed a fair distribution of funds from the tax. It wasn’t there.
The ballot language in HCFCD’s Prop A did not specify how, when, where, or by what standards the money would be spent. Neither did their road show.
Even though HCFCD pitched the tax as a maintenance tax, nothing in the ballot language limited expenditures to maintenance. In fact, ballot language explicitly included “operations.”
Having been fooled twice, Lake Houston Area voters were not about to be tricked a third time.
People are becoming increasingly skeptical about Harris County’s Democratic leadership.
The 2018 Flood Bond passed by more than 85%; the Lake Houston Area had five of the top eight precincts in the county in terms of turnout.
The drainage portion of the 2022 bond received a 69% majority.
Yesterday’s flood tax vote received only a 52% approval, but only 44% in the Lake Houston Area.
Notice a trend?
An old recipe for success in business says, “Promise what you will deliver and deliver what you promise.” Harris County’s Democratic leadership needs to start delivering what they promise and treating all people fairly…if they ever hope to pass another bond or tax increase.
How I Tallied the Vote
Using the Election Day figures which may change slightly, I tallied up the votes by precinct in the far northeastern part of the county. That included the area:
East of US59 to the county line and north to Montgomery County
Roughly north of the Greens Bayou watershed and slightly south of the Lake Houston Dam.
The area includes Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita, Huffman and Crosby plus unincorporated areas.
Thus, the Proposition lost within this area by 12.76%. But countywide, the proposition passed by 2.7%. That made the total spread 15.46%.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/6/24
2626 Days since Hurricane Harveyand 1 Day since Election Day 2024
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/LHA-Vote-vs-Countywide.jpg?fit=1100%2C425&ssl=14251100adminadmin2024-11-06 16:09:212024-11-06 16:18:39HCFCD Prop A Passes by 2% Countywide, But Fails by 13% in Lake Houston Area
11/05/24 – Rafael morphed from Tropical Depression #18 to a tropical storm in the Caribbean yesterday. And it could become a hurricane by tonight as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico.
However, there is a low likelihood Rafael will reach Texas because of an approaching cold front from the northwest. The front will create strong wind sheer.
Also, nearshore waters, cooled by recent storms, will be in the upper seventies/lower eighties – the threshold temperature required to sustain tropical cyclones. So, we can expect weakening as Rafael approaches the Gulf Coast.
Approaching cold front from NWshould block Rafael from reaching Texas.
Forecast Track Still Has High Uncertainty
On the forecast track, Rafael should move near western Jamaica early this afternoon, over the Cayman Islands this evening, and over western Cuba on Wednesday. Once in the Gulf of Mexico late tomorrow, the track becomes far less certain as the storm weakens.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A cold front is expected to sweep off the Texas coast early on Saturday, blocking any potential path toward the Texas coast.” You can see it in the photo above.
The timing of the arrival of the front and the weakening of Rafael will determine the Raphael’s track. As you can see below, models show little agreement at the moment.
Winds Currently at 60 MPH
At 1 PM EST, Rafael had 60 MPH sustained winds and was moving northwest at almost 14 MPH.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts steady to rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Rafael should become a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands later today with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
Lindner predicts “Rafael will likely near Category 2 hurricane intensity on approach to Cuba.” Category 1 ranges from 74-95 MPH. Category 2 begins when winds reach 96 MPH.
If Rafael does get close to Houston, we should start to feel its winds late Friday or Saturday.
Rainfall and Surge
NHC predicts rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches. Isolated totals up to 10 inches across higher terrain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
The NHC also expects storm surge of 6-9 feet above normal high tides in the Caymans today. Swells generated by Rafael will affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Stay Aware
Any time a hurricane enters the Gulf, you should keep an eye out. Check the National Hurricane Center website daily until you’re sure the threat has passed.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/5/24
2625 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Rafael-24.11.05.png?fit=1100%2C698&ssl=16981100adminadmin2024-11-05 14:35:262024-11-10 14:39:10TS Rafael Likely to Become Hurricane Tonight Before Weakening in Gulf
Rafael Weakens, Turns West
11/7/24 10 AM – Late-season Hurricane Rafael briefly intensified into a Category 3 storm yesterday as it crossed over Cuba. But since then it has gradually weakened. This morning, Hurricane Hunters measured the sustained wind speed at 100 MPH, making it a Cat 2 storm. Cat 2 ranges from 96 to 110 MPH.
Recent aircraft fixes indicate Rafael is beginning a leftward (west) turn toward Mexico. NHC notes greater than average uncertainty concerning its track. But if Rafael keeps moving it that direction, the storm would move away from Houston and the northern Gulf of Mexico.
The current forward motion estimate is 9 MPH.
Further Weakening Predicted
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts further weakening today as Rafael encounters minor to moderate wind sheer and drier air pushing down from the north. Flight crews have already noted that the eyewall has opened up to the south and southwest.
Rafael’s central pressure has risen slightly to around 971 mb. NHC expects the hurricane to move into an even drier airmass during the next few days. They say that despite the weakening, Rafael should remain a hurricane through the weekend.
Currently, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. In its latest update, NHC predicts that tropical storm force winds will not likely reach the Houston area. They say the chance of that is less than 5%.
Main Impact Will be High Waves
The main effect felt in southeast Texas will be high waves. At high tide, they could cause minor coastal flooding.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, with Rafael on its projected track, “…large long period swells of 6-10 feet will begin to reach the Texas coast this weekend. When combined with NE winds over the local waters, tides will increase to 3.5-4.0 ft above the barnacle level.”
“This is right on the cusp of coastal flooding thresholds along the upper Texas coast. During high tides into the weekend, some minor coastal flooding may be possible especially on the Gulf facing beaches where elevated wave action will be in place,” said Lindner early this morning.
For those who work offshore, waves could go even higher. At 10:12 AM EST, NHC issued an offshore waters forecast for the Gulf. It says that for the west-central Gulf (91W to 94W longitude and 22N to 26N latitude), seas could reach 16-24 feet in NE to E swells this Saturday.
NHC also says that swells generated by Rafael should spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Late Season Oddity
Lindner noted that it is rare for a hurricane this late in the season to move due west across the entire Gulf of Mexico. The only such similar instance, he says, was hurricane Jeanne from 1980 (Nov 12-15).
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/7/24
2627 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HCFCD Prop A Passes by 2% Countywide, But Fails by 13% in Lake Houston Area
11/6/24 – Voters narrowly approved Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) Proposition A, a 63% tax increase, by a little more than 2 percent on Election Day. However, Prop A failed dramatically in the underserved Lake Houston Area by almost 13 percent – for a total 15.4 percentage-point swing.
The difference underscores frustration over past promises broken, skepticism about future fairness, and doubt about whether area residents will see any benefit from the tax increase.
The Lake Houston Area, which suffered the highest flooding in the county during Harvey, has consistently been shorted by HCFCD in both capital improvement spending from the flood bond and maintenance dollars. The upper San Jacinto watershed drains an area 50% larger than Harris County through Lake Houston. But quarter after quarter, Lake Houston Area watersheds rank in the bottom half of all flood-control mitigation spending.
And when you rank watersheds by maintenance dollars per stream mile, the area ranks in the bottom third of all watersheds.
Possible Reasons Residents Voted Against
In voting against the tax increase yesterday, it’s not clear whether Lake Houston Area voters rejected the massive tax increase because they felt they would not benefit from it.
They may have also wanted to send a message to the 4:1 Democratic majority on Commissioner’s Court about being treated fairly. That majority has twice reneged on recent promises:
Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me…
Lake Houston Area voters were not going to be fooled a third time.
After previous bait-and-switch schemes, I personally wanted to see specific ballot language that guaranteed a fair distribution of funds from the tax. It wasn’t there.
The ballot language in HCFCD’s Prop A did not specify how, when, where, or by what standards the money would be spent. Neither did their road show.
Even though HCFCD pitched the tax as a maintenance tax, nothing in the ballot language limited expenditures to maintenance. In fact, ballot language explicitly included “operations.”
Having been fooled twice, Lake Houston Area voters were not about to be tricked a third time.
People are becoming increasingly skeptical about Harris County’s Democratic leadership.
Notice a trend?
An old recipe for success in business says, “Promise what you will deliver and deliver what you promise.” Harris County’s Democratic leadership needs to start delivering what they promise and treating all people fairly…if they ever hope to pass another bond or tax increase.
How I Tallied the Vote
Using the Election Day figures which may change slightly, I tallied up the votes by precinct in the far northeastern part of the county. That included the area:
Slightly more than a hundred thousand people voted in that area (101,305) according to HarrisVotes.com and Harris County’s voting precinct map.
Thus, the Proposition lost within this area by 12.76%. But countywide, the proposition passed by 2.7%. That made the total spread 15.46%.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/6/24
2626 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1 Day since Election Day 2024
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
TS Rafael Likely to Become Hurricane Tonight Before Weakening in Gulf
11/05/24 – Rafael morphed from Tropical Depression #18 to a tropical storm in the Caribbean yesterday. And it could become a hurricane by tonight as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico.
However, there is a low likelihood Rafael will reach Texas because of an approaching cold front from the northwest. The front will create strong wind sheer.
Also, nearshore waters, cooled by recent storms, will be in the upper seventies/lower eighties – the threshold temperature required to sustain tropical cyclones. So, we can expect weakening as Rafael approaches the Gulf Coast.
Forecast Track Still Has High Uncertainty
On the forecast track, Rafael should move near western Jamaica early this afternoon, over the Cayman Islands this evening, and over western Cuba on Wednesday. Once in the Gulf of Mexico late tomorrow, the track becomes far less certain as the storm weakens.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A cold front is expected to sweep off the Texas coast early on Saturday, blocking any potential path toward the Texas coast.” You can see it in the photo above.
The timing of the arrival of the front and the weakening of Rafael will determine the Raphael’s track. As you can see below, models show little agreement at the moment.
Winds Currently at 60 MPH
At 1 PM EST, Rafael had 60 MPH sustained winds and was moving northwest at almost 14 MPH.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts steady to rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Rafael should become a hurricane as it
passes near the Cayman Islands later today with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
Lindner predicts “Rafael will likely near Category 2 hurricane intensity on approach to Cuba.” Category 1 ranges from 74-95 MPH. Category 2 begins when winds reach 96 MPH.
If Rafael does get close to Houston, we should start to feel its winds late Friday or Saturday.
Rainfall and Surge
NHC predicts rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches. Isolated totals up to 10 inches across higher terrain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
The NHC also expects storm surge of 6-9 feet above normal high tides in the Caymans today. Swells generated by Rafael will affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Stay Aware
Any time a hurricane enters the Gulf, you should keep an eye out. Check the National Hurricane Center website daily until you’re sure the threat has passed.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/5/24
2625 Days since Hurricane Harvey