4/4/25 – A Kingwood-sized development just upstream from the I-69 Bridge over the San Jacinto West Fork is half built out and growing quickly thanks to the construction of Townsen Blvd. which began recently in Montgomery County.
The area is bounded by the Grand Parkway, Spring Creek, and the San Jacinto West Fork. It lies almost entirely within floodways and floodplains. And it’s pockmarked by wetlands. A respected hydrologist told me that further development in that area would be “like aiming a fire hose at Kingwood and Humble.”
Townsen construction will open up many thousands of acres to new development. That has the potential to increase flood risk if newly developing areas receive insufficient mitigation. And that has many people asking questions.
Location and Size
Let’s begin by looking at maps that put the area and plans for it in perspective.
Both outlined areas include approximately 13,000 acres. Kingwood on right. SH99 is yellow line running left to right across top of frame. I-69 runs N to S between red outlines.
Construction of a major new thoroughfare in the area on the left will open up thousands of remaining acres to development. It’s called Townsen Blvd and will be four divided lanes.
Construction on the first segment began recently. And Montgomery County voters will decide whether to fund the next segment in a bond election on Saturday, May 3, 2025.
The green section is a major link in bigger plans that could eventually take the road across Spring Creek to hook up with Townsen Boulevard in Humble. Right now, plans show that section terminating at Rayford Road. But what about plans beyond that? The map below from MoCo’s 2021 transportation plan shows Townsen eventually pushing through to Spring Creek.
Townsen Blvd. from 2021 MoCo transportation plan is long, dotted line running through center of frameand terminating at County line.
In 2022, I wrote about a related proposal to build a bridge across Spring Creek that would connect to Townsen Blvd. in Humble on the Harris County side of the creek.
Map shown on Page 25 of Army Corps Permit Application for the bridge across Spring Creek. Deadline for an application extension expires next year.
Construction Already Starting at North End
Recently, work on the first portion of MoCo’s Townsen Boulevard started near SH99 (Grand Parkway). Photos below show contractors have only finished small segments of the first section so far. But new subdivisions and schools are already springing up adjacent to those sections and creating a stir that has area residents buzzing. See representative photos below.
Looking S from over SH99 at clearing that will become Townsen Blvd.Reverse angle. Looking N toward SH99 at clearing for Townsen Blvd. Note new school under construction in top left.Intersecting street on left is Waterbend Cove.Looking S along another portion of Townsen Blvd.near Lexington Blvd. intersection in distance.Looking back N across Lexington toward SH99 shows one of many new neighborhoods under construction.Same approximate location, but looking 90 degrees west shows lots for sale, but not yet built on.New school will host the children of families who buy into this area.Ground level view shows how high Townsen is being built up.Raising the road will keep it passable during heavy storms. Note wetlands on far side.
Wetlands and Floodplains in Abundance
FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer shows that floodplains cover almost all of the area where the first two legs of Townsen Blvd. will be built. The map below is so busy that for reference, I had to superimpose a bright red line where Townsen will go.
Approximate location of Townsen Blvd shown in red. FEMA base layer did not have new street marked yet.Striped area = floodway. Aqua = 100-year floodplain. Brown = 500-year.
This map will likely get worse. It is based on data acquired after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. Experts say the floodplains and floodway will expand 50-100% when FEMA updates the map with new Atlas-14 data developed after Harvey.
#1 and #2 mark intersections of Waterbed Cove and Lexington Blvd with Townsen Blvd. See photos above.
Wetlands are nature’s sponges. Paving them over increases runoff and the risk of downstream flooding. The developers seem to be constructing a series of “lakes” around which they’re building homes. Such lakes are really detention basins in disguise. But because of the old flood maps, uncertainty remains. Will they offer sufficient mitigation?
Is Bridge a Real Possibility?
Neighbors want to know more about impacts of the road. That will depend on how far south Townsen Blvd. goes and whether a bridge across Spring Creek is a real possibility.
I asked several officials what the probability of such a bridge is.
Jason Stuebe, Humble City Manager, said, “Honestly, I don’t have much information to share. The developer completed the portion of the roadway within Humble, stopped at the city limits and that’s about the last we heard from them.”
Eric Heppen, Harris County Precinct 3’s head engineer, said, “We heard a few … rumors but nothing formally. To be fair, I hear rumors about it once a year at this point. Harris County has not been contacted about it and we have at least some of the jurisdictional rights over the creek. We reminded Montgomery County recently that we cannot do a joint project with them unless they adopt current Harris County Drainage Criteria.”
More impact data to follow as I learn more details.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/4/25
2775 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Comparison-Size.jpg?fit=1100%2C567&ssl=15671100adminadmin2025-04-04 17:25:542025-05-04 12:33:51New Kingwood-Sized Development Upstream from Kingwood
4/3/2025 – Colorado State University (CSU) researchers issued their forecast for the 2025 hurricane season today for the Atlantic basin. Forecasters expect the season to be above average, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
The 30-year average is for 14.4 for named storms, 7.2 for hurricanes, and 3.2 for major hurricanes.
Landfall Location Probabilities and Other Predictions
Researchers at CSU also predicted the probabilities of major hurricanes making landfall:
Anywhere along the U.S. coastline
Along the East Coast, including the Florida Panhandle
Anywhere along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Tx.
They predict a:
51% chance for any coast (up from a 140-year average of 43%)
26% chance for the East Coast (up from a 140-year average of 21%)
33% chance for the Gulf Coast (up from a 140 year average of 27%)
They also believe Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2025 will be approximately 125 percent of their long-term averages.
Value of Long-Range Forecasts
People frequently ask CSU researchers what the value is of such long-range forecasts? Aside from people’s curiosity, they point out that it is possible to make seasonal forecasts with greater accuracy than climatology.
The models CSU uses sometimes fail, but their “hindcasts” show that their predictions correlate highly with actual storm activity. In the last 10 years, using “correlation” as a skill metric, CSU’s April forecasts have a .59 coefficient of correlation.
A correlation coefficient of 0.59 indicates a moderate to strong positive relationship between two variables.
In general, statisticians consider:
0.1 to 0.3: Weak
0.3 to 0.5: Moderate
0.5 to 0.7: Moderate to strong
0.7 to 1.0: Strong
CSU’s June forecasts have a .69 coefficient of correlation and their August forecasts rate a .84.
So, statistically speaking, they are very successful. And that’s why they are so well respected in the industry.
Chances of Texans Getting Hit
By the way, they believe that Texas residents have a 19% chance of being within 50 miles of a major hurricane landfall this season. Those chances increase to 44% for a hurricane and 70% for a named storm.
CSU looks at multiple models as well as many analog factors, such as sea surface temperatures, global winds, La Niña, El Niño, and more. Budding meteorologists can review their thinking by reading the full 41-page report here.
It’s never too early to start preparing for hurricane season. A friend contacted me today about portable electrical power packs he just purchased. He’s also buying solar panels to recharge them. The memory of power outages during Beryl still has him smarting.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/CSU-2025-Vs-Climatology-e1743720707795.png?fit=1100%2C814&ssl=18141100adminadmin2025-04-03 17:57:202025-04-03 17:57:21CSU Predicts Above Average 2025 Hurricane Season
4/2/2025 – Despite massive funding shortfalls associated with the 2018 Flood Bond that have become the talk of Commissioner’s Court, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) still claims no projects will be cancelled – even after it cancelled several. See the screen capture below taken this afternoon.
That page has been up since at least 2022. An oversight? The County has known for years that it didn’t have enough money to complete bond projects. But instead of fessing up, they prioritized projects in Rodney Ellis’ precinct and delayed the day of reckoning…until they ran out of money for, you guessed it, Ellis’ projects.
HCFCD also cleverly called cancelled projects “completed”…because it decided not to pursue them anymore. Welcome to a world of linguistic legerdemain.
Is it intentional? You be the judge. Clearly, the pretense has persisted for years.
A History of Warnings and Missteps
2021
On 3/9/2021, David Berry, then the County’s Budget Management Director, asserted in a Commissioners’ Court meeting that the County had a shortfall of approximately $900 million to $1.35 billion needed to complete projects in the Flood Bond.
In December that year, Berry, by then the County Administrator, proposed eliminating partner funding as a factor in prioritizing bond projects. Said another way, partners who made projects possible would not see projects accelerated.
Only one problem: we expected partners to fund 43% of all flood bond projects. Basically, Berry eliminated the main incentive for MUDs and municipalities to bring money to the table.
But it pushed so-called “equity” projects to the front of the line.
2022
HCFCD updated its Equity Prioritization Framework, a controversial policy for ranking potential flood mitigation projects. It excluded flood damage from the ranking of projects. Instead, the policy gave preference to socially vulnerable areas – as defined by the CDC –regardless of flood damage.
Only a portion of potential funding partners have similar priorities. This further limited partner-funding potential.
2023
In June 2023, while speaking to a public meeting of the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force, Scott Elmer, the Flood Control District’s Chief Partnership and Programs Officer, predicted that some projects in the 2018 flood bond likely would not get done because of a funding gap.
In July 2023, Harris County put 37 of 93 subdivision drainage projects associated with the 2018 Flood Bond “on hold” because it lacked funding, often from shortfalls in expected partner contributions.
In December 2023, Jesal Shah PE, the Chief Project Delivery Officer for HCFCD, discussed the impact of inflation on the bond program with the Harris County Community Resilience Flood Task Force. He said he was re-evaluating all bond projects in an attempt to “minimize” changes.
2024
HCFCD stopped listing active construction projects on its website. The frequency of flood bond updates fell from monthly to annually. Even county commissioners were flying blind.
The July 2024 flood-bond update alluded to 33 projects that had “uncertainty about whether current funding levels are sufficient to take the associated projects through construction.”
2025
On 2/6/25, fireworks erupted in Harris County Commissioners Court today over the 2018 Flood Bond and Subdivision Drainage shortfalls. It was a rare display of bi-partisan outrage. All four commissioners and the county judge made it clear that the County didn’t have enough money to deliver flood-mitigation projects promised in the bond. Commissioners used words like, “abysmal failure,” “major crisis,” and “utter dismay.”
At the 2/27/25 Commissioners Court meeting, Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis admitted, “I know there’s not enough money to do all the projects we talked about and everybody else knows it. I’m just crazy enough to say it in public.”
And in their 3/27/25 meeting, Harris County Commissioners wrestled for more than an hour with a massive, $100-million budget shortfall for subdivision drainage improvements.
Why Claim No Projects Will Be Cancelled?
Despite all that, HCFCD still – to this day – makes the “no-cancellation” claim on its website. I believe they’re trying to postpone a day of reckoning with verbal trickery.
That sounds a lot like cancellation to me. The choice of words indicates a desperate desire to conceal a truth. It’s Orwellian “doublespeak” at its finest!
Many more projects await that same fate. Unless you remain alert!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/25
2773 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025-Ellis-in-CC.jpg?fit=1100%2C633&ssl=16331100adminadmin2025-04-02 21:24:512025-04-02 21:41:41Despite Funding Shortfalls, HCFCD Still Claims No Projects Will Be Cancelled
New Kingwood-Sized Development Upstream from Kingwood
4/4/25 – A Kingwood-sized development just upstream from the I-69 Bridge over the San Jacinto West Fork is half built out and growing quickly thanks to the construction of Townsen Blvd. which began recently in Montgomery County.
The area is bounded by the Grand Parkway, Spring Creek, and the San Jacinto West Fork. It lies almost entirely within floodways and floodplains. And it’s pockmarked by wetlands. A respected hydrologist told me that further development in that area would be “like aiming a fire hose at Kingwood and Humble.”
Townsen construction will open up many thousands of acres to new development. That has the potential to increase flood risk if newly developing areas receive insufficient mitigation. And that has many people asking questions.
Location and Size
Let’s begin by looking at maps that put the area and plans for it in perspective.
Construction of a major new thoroughfare in the area on the left will open up thousands of remaining acres to development. It’s called Townsen Blvd and will be four divided lanes.
Construction on the first segment began recently. And Montgomery County voters will decide whether to fund the next segment in a bond election on Saturday, May 3, 2025.
The green section is a major link in bigger plans that could eventually take the road across Spring Creek to hook up with Townsen Boulevard in Humble. Right now, plans show that section terminating at Rayford Road. But what about plans beyond that? The map below from MoCo’s 2021 transportation plan shows Townsen eventually pushing through to Spring Creek.
In 2022, I wrote about a related proposal to build a bridge across Spring Creek that would connect to Townsen Blvd. in Humble on the Harris County side of the creek.
Construction Already Starting at North End
Recently, work on the first portion of MoCo’s Townsen Boulevard started near SH99 (Grand Parkway). Photos below show contractors have only finished small segments of the first section so far. But new subdivisions and schools are already springing up adjacent to those sections and creating a stir that has area residents buzzing. See representative photos below.
Wetlands and Floodplains in Abundance
FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer shows that floodplains cover almost all of the area where the first two legs of Townsen Blvd. will be built. The map below is so busy that for reference, I had to superimpose a bright red line where Townsen will go.
This map will likely get worse. It is based on data acquired after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. Experts say the floodplains and floodway will expand 50-100% when FEMA updates the map with new Atlas-14 data developed after Harvey.
But the quantity of wetlands in this area represent an even bigger problem. See the map below from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory.
Wetlands are nature’s sponges. Paving them over increases runoff and the risk of downstream flooding. The developers seem to be constructing a series of “lakes” around which they’re building homes. Such lakes are really detention basins in disguise. But because of the old flood maps, uncertainty remains. Will they offer sufficient mitigation?
Is Bridge a Real Possibility?
Neighbors want to know more about impacts of the road. That will depend on how far south Townsen Blvd. goes and whether a bridge across Spring Creek is a real possibility.
I asked several officials what the probability of such a bridge is.
Jason Stuebe, Humble City Manager, said, “Honestly, I don’t have much information to share. The developer completed the portion of the roadway within Humble, stopped at the city limits and that’s about the last we heard from them.”
Eric Heppen, Harris County Precinct 3’s head engineer, said, “We heard a few … rumors but nothing formally. To be fair, I hear rumors about it once a year at this point. Harris County has not been contacted about it and we have at least some of the jurisdictional rights over the creek. We reminded Montgomery County recently that we cannot do a joint project with them unless they adopt current Harris County Drainage Criteria.”
More impact data to follow as I learn more details.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/4/25
2775 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
CSU Predicts Above Average 2025 Hurricane Season
4/3/2025 – Colorado State University (CSU) researchers issued their forecast for the 2025 hurricane season today for the Atlantic basin. Forecasters expect the season to be above average, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
The 30-year average is for 14.4 for named storms, 7.2 for hurricanes, and 3.2 for major hurricanes.
Landfall Location Probabilities and Other Predictions
Researchers at CSU also predicted the probabilities of major hurricanes making landfall:
They predict a:
They also believe Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2025 will be approximately 125 percent of their long-term averages.
Value of Long-Range Forecasts
People frequently ask CSU researchers what the value is of such long-range forecasts? Aside from people’s curiosity, they point out that it is possible to make seasonal forecasts with greater accuracy than climatology.
Accuracy of Long-Range Predictions
The models CSU uses sometimes fail, but their “hindcasts” show that their predictions correlate highly with actual storm activity. In the last 10 years, using “correlation” as a skill metric, CSU’s April forecasts have a .59 coefficient of correlation.
A correlation coefficient of 0.59 indicates a moderate to strong positive relationship between two variables.
In general, statisticians consider:
CSU’s June forecasts have a .69 coefficient of correlation and their August forecasts rate a .84.
So, statistically speaking, they are very successful. And that’s why they are so well respected in the industry.
Chances of Texans Getting Hit
By the way, they believe that Texas residents have a 19% chance of being within 50 miles of a major hurricane landfall this season. Those chances increase to 44% for a hurricane and 70% for a named storm.
CSU looks at multiple models as well as many analog factors, such as sea surface temperatures, global winds, La Niña, El Niño, and more. Budding meteorologists can review their thinking by reading the full 41-page report here.
It’s never too early to start preparing for hurricane season. A friend contacted me today about portable electrical power packs he just purchased. He’s also buying solar panels to recharge them. The memory of power outages during Beryl still has him smarting.
To help get ready for hurricane season, see the Preparedness Tab on my Links Page.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/3/2025
2774 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Despite Funding Shortfalls, HCFCD Still Claims No Projects Will Be Cancelled
4/2/2025 – Despite massive funding shortfalls associated with the 2018 Flood Bond that have become the talk of Commissioner’s Court, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) still claims no projects will be cancelled – even after it cancelled several. See the screen capture below taken this afternoon.
That page has been up since at least 2022. An oversight? The County has known for years that it didn’t have enough money to complete bond projects. But instead of fessing up, they prioritized projects in Rodney Ellis’ precinct and delayed the day of reckoning…until they ran out of money for, you guessed it, Ellis’ projects.
HCFCD also cleverly called cancelled projects “completed”…because it decided not to pursue them anymore. Welcome to a world of linguistic legerdemain.
Is it intentional? You be the judge. Clearly, the pretense has persisted for years.
A History of Warnings and Missteps
2021
On 3/9/2021, David Berry, then the County’s Budget Management Director, asserted in a Commissioners’ Court meeting that the County had a shortfall of approximately $900 million to $1.35 billion needed to complete projects in the Flood Bond.
In December that year, Berry, by then the County Administrator, proposed eliminating partner funding as a factor in prioritizing bond projects. Said another way, partners who made projects possible would not see projects accelerated.
Only one problem: we expected partners to fund 43% of all flood bond projects. Basically, Berry eliminated the main incentive for MUDs and municipalities to bring money to the table.
But it pushed so-called “equity” projects to the front of the line.
2022
HCFCD updated its Equity Prioritization Framework, a controversial policy for ranking potential flood mitigation projects. It excluded flood damage from the ranking of projects. Instead, the policy gave preference to socially vulnerable areas – as defined by the CDC –regardless of flood damage.
Only a portion of potential funding partners have similar priorities. This further limited partner-funding potential.
2023
In June 2023, while speaking to a public meeting of the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force, Scott Elmer, the Flood Control District’s Chief Partnership and Programs Officer, predicted that some projects in the 2018 flood bond likely would not get done because of a funding gap.
In July 2023, Harris County put 37 of 93 subdivision drainage projects associated with the 2018 Flood Bond “on hold” because it lacked funding, often from shortfalls in expected partner contributions.
In December 2023, Jesal Shah PE, the Chief Project Delivery Officer for HCFCD, discussed the impact of inflation on the bond program with the Harris County Community Resilience Flood Task Force. He said he was re-evaluating all bond projects in an attempt to “minimize” changes.
2024
HCFCD stopped listing active construction projects on its website. The frequency of flood bond updates fell from monthly to annually. Even county commissioners were flying blind.
The July 2024 flood-bond update alluded to 33 projects that had “uncertainty about whether current funding levels are sufficient to take the associated projects through construction.”
2025
On 2/6/25, fireworks erupted in Harris County Commissioners Court today over the 2018 Flood Bond and Subdivision Drainage shortfalls. It was a rare display of bi-partisan outrage. All four commissioners and the county judge made it clear that the County didn’t have enough money to deliver flood-mitigation projects promised in the bond. Commissioners used words like, “abysmal failure,” “major crisis,” and “utter dismay.”
At the 2/27/25 Commissioners Court meeting, Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis admitted, “I know there’s not enough money to do all the projects we talked about and everybody else knows it. I’m just crazy enough to say it in public.”
And in their 3/27/25 meeting, Harris County Commissioners wrestled for more than an hour with a massive, $100-million budget shortfall for subdivision drainage improvements.
Why Claim No Projects Will Be Cancelled?
Despite all that, HCFCD still – to this day – makes the “no-cancellation” claim on its website. I believe they’re trying to postpone a day of reckoning with verbal trickery.
HCFCD’s July 2024 flood-bond update said that it marked several projects “complete” – because they saw no benefit in completing them!
That sounds a lot like cancellation to me. The choice of words indicates a desperate desire to conceal a truth. It’s Orwellian “doublespeak” at its finest!
Many more projects await that same fate. Unless you remain alert!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/25
2773 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.