4/20/25 – There are far more flood-risk-reduction proposals (studies, projects and strategies) in Texas’ first state flood plan than funds to finance them.
Tressa Olsen, Assistant Director of Flood Planning for the Texas Water Development Board, spoke about the plan at a meeting of the Society of American Military Engineers on 4/14/25.
TWDB’s Assistant Director of Flood Planning, Tressa Olsen.
Altogether, the 15 regional flood planning groups in the state identified approximately 5,000 proposals with a combined price tag of $54.5 billion. But, she says, the legislature has allocated only approximately $1.4 billion since 2019 for them.
Page 13 from Olsen’s presentation on state flood plan. To see her entire presentation, click here.
That underscores the need for better floodplain management practices that can prevent rather than correct flooding problems – especially in the San Jacinto watershed. After more flood issues become apparent in the next big storm, it may take generations and billions of dollars to remediate them.
Right now, 14 bills pending in the state legislature mention the state’s Flood Infrastructure Fund. But most of those bills focus on prioritizing projects. Not one bill establishes a steady income stream for the Fund which helps finance mitigation projects in the State Flood Plan.
Proposed Ryko Development Makes Case For Intensive Scrutiny
Regardless, every month, it seems more and more developments are moving into floodplains and closer to rivers. Major storms can turn those rivers and streams into raging torrents that destroy homes and lives.
Last week, I focused on the proposed Ryko development immediately west of Kingwood in Montgomery County.
The company hopes to build 7,000 homes on 5,500 flood-prone acres near the confluence of Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork.
Ryko’s land lies within the area bounded by Spring Creek (left) and the San Jacinto West Fork (right).
North of Ryko’s land, about halfway to the Grand Parkway and on property 30 feet higher than the confluence, is an existing subdivision called Bender’s Landing Estates. (See top of map below.) One resident told me that 53 homes there flooded during Harvey.
So, Ryko’s property below Benders Landing has even higher flood risk. See red outline superimposed over FEMA’s map below.
Ryko property bounded by red. Cross-hatched = floodway. Aqua = 1% annual chance. Brown = .2% annual chance.The Houston area has had four .2% annual chance floods in the last 10 years.
As the Federal government scales back disaster relief and flood mitigation assistance, and as the State doesn’t step in to provide steady funding for mitigation efforts in the State Flood Plan, the responsibility to prevent flooding will increasingly fall onto the shoulders of local officials.
But that will require local officials to update and integrate data on their own. FEMA is already years behind schedule in releasing new flood maps for the Houston region.
Elevation Data Acquired in 1988
“Base Flood Elevation” in engineer-speak is the expected height of a 1% annual-chance (100-year) flood. FEMA provides a Base-Flood-Elevation Viewer that estimates the height above ground for both 1% and .2% Annual Chance (500-year) Floods.
However, FEMA uses elevation data acquired in 1988 to estimate the height of base floods above ground level.
A whole page in FEMA’s Base-Flood-Elevation estimates discusses disclaimers. “Everyone is at risk,” it says. “The chances of experiencing a flood can vary due to unevaluated conditions, such as the unstudied effects of community growth and development or intense storms uncharacteristic to historical trends.”
Extreme Risk Requires Extreme Caution
FEMA’s reports even suggest actions homeowners can take to reduce their flood risk and insurance premiums, such as elevating slabs. But by how much? FEMA doesn’t say. And elevation can be a shifting target.
One of the “unevaluated conditions and unstudied effects of community growth” is subsidence.
Harris-Galveston Subsidence District says subsidence at a gage next to Ryko’s property averages .73 inches per year due to groundwater withdrawal. Adding 7000 new homes would accelerate subsidence.
0.73 inches per year translates to approximately two feet of sinking during a 30-year mortgage. And that’s twice as much as the freeboard factor (safety margin) used to establish the elevation of foundations above expected floods in Montgomery County.
MoCo only requires foundations of new homes to be one foot above the base flood elevation (100-year floodplain), And we’ve had four 500-year floods in the area in the last 10-years. The image below shows what one of those floods did to townhomes in Forest Cove about a mile downstream from Ryko’s property.
Forest Cove Townhome destroyed by Harvey.
Montgomery County Commissioners beware!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/21/25
2792 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/20250414-DSC_1999.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2025-04-21 17:37:022025-04-21 22:48:08Far More Proposals in State Flood Plan Than Funds For Them
4/19/25 – Ryko, a development company, has announced plans to build 7,000 new homes in an environmentally sensitive, flood-prone area immediately west of Kingwood. Moreover, the area already experiences the highest subsidence in the north Houston region.
Residents in the area currently use groundwater. Assuming an average household size of 2.5 people, Ryko would add 17,500 new residents to the area. That could accelerate declines in groundwater levels and increase subsidence.
Reviewing the Subsidence District’s latest annual report revealed that the issue at this one reporting station is part of a larger problem. And the problem is very bad in southern Montgomery County.
Impacts of Subsidence
I have been posting about the issue for five-plus years. Subsidence happens too slowly to notice in most cases. But over time, it can be very disruptive:
Excessive groundwater withdrawals can create bowls in the landscape that alter the gradient of rivers and streams. That can increase local flooding. For instance, when land at the county line sinks faster than land at the Lake Houston Dam, it tilts the lake toward the county line.
Projected subsidence rates upstream could erase your freeboard factor (the height at which your home was built above the 100-year floodplain). That would increase your flood risk.
Subsidence can also crack pipelines, storm sewers, and pavement.
Uneven settling can cause your doors and windows to stick; crack foundations; split wallboard; and break tile.
Subsidence can also trigger long-dormant geologic faults.
Front steps of Woodland’s homeowner Dr. Mark Meinrath in 1992 and 2014. Part of Meinrath’s home straddles a fault which subsidence triggered. Relative to the rest of his house, these front steps dropped 9.9 inches in 22 years.
For more examples of the impacts of subsidence in the north Houston area, visit StopOurSinking.com, a site developed by a Woodlands resident. There, subsidence has triggered faults and flooded multi-million-dollar homes through the “bowl effect.”
High Cost of a Little Flooding
Getting even an inch of water in your home can be very costly. According to FEMA, just 1 inch of floodwater in an average 2,000 square foot home can cost $10,000 to $20,000 to repair.
Higher-end finishes, such as wood floors, built-in cabinetry, granite, etc., can push those estimates past $25,000.
Why is one inch so expensive?
Flooring usually needs to be completely replaced (carpet, wood, sometimes even tile if the water gets underneath).
Baseboards and lower drywall (often up to 2 feet) usually must be cut out and replaced.
Insulation in walls may need replacing if water wicks up.
Cabinet bases and interior doors are often ruined.
Appliances like washers, dryers, and even low-mounted electrical outlets might be affected.
Mold prevention requires fast and sometimes professional drying and remediation.
In homes larger than 2,000 square feet, the cost would go up proportionately. For instance, FEMA estimates repair costs for a 3,000 square foot home to be 50% greater – in the $15,000 – $30,000+ range.
Disasters/accidents are rarely caused by one thing. They usually result from a combination of factors eroding margins of safety.
For instance, the risk of a driving accident increases when you’re tired, it’s dark and the pavement is wet. That’s why it’s important to pay attention to little things that can degrade your margin of safety. They may not be so little in the next big storm.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/19/2025
2790 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Subsidence-in-Ryko-Area-copy-scaled-e1745084712556.jpg?fit=1100%2C628&ssl=16281100adminadmin2025-04-19 12:57:472025-04-21 09:50:29Building 7,000 Homes Here Would Accelerate Subsidence
4/18/25 – Just upstream from the Humble/Kingwood Area, residents of Benders Landing Estates in Montgomery County frequently spot bald eagles flying overhead and resting in trees adjacent to 5,500 acres that Ryko is trying to develop for 7,000 homes.
Frequent Eagle Sightings Suggest Nearby Nests
Susan Gillespie Marrero of Benders Landing Estates, near the Ryko property, sent me video of two bald eagles landing in a tree outside her window.
Video of eagles in back yard of Susan Gillespie Marreroin Benders Landing Estates.
Such sightings are reportedly common in that area. Marrero also sent me dozens of postings by neighbors on a community website. See example below.
One of more than two dozen social media posts sent by Marreroshowing bald eagle sightings in/near the Ryko land.
Ryko’s property is one of the last areas in the north Houston region to be developed because of frequent flooding. Much of the area is covered by wetlands and swamps that make excellent habitat for wildlife. They also make excellent hunting grounds for the eagles. The Ryko property has likely become an eagle refuge.
Eagles No Longer Listed as Endangered, but Still Protected
Bald eagles, America’s official national symbol, were once listed as a threatened and endangered species, primarily due to habitat loss, hunting and pesticides.
But their numbers have recovered in recent years. In 1995, they were reclassified from endangered to threatened. And in 2007, they were removed entirely from the federal Endangered Species List.
However, they are still protected under other laws, such as the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act. And it is still illegal to harm or interfere with them or their nests without specific federal permission. Violation carries stiff fines and even jail time.
Building Near Eagles Adds Significant Time, Cost, Risk
Permit approvals can reportedly add months or even years to a construction project when eagles are involved. You must apply for an eagle permit if your project might:
Disturb an active bald or golden eagle nest (especially during nesting season: usually late winter through summer)
Destroy or remove a nest (even an inactive one)
Causerepeateddisturbances nearby (i.e., with heavy equipment)
Significantly alter eagle habitat (like clearing mature trees used for nesting or roosting)
Even if you don’t directly destroy a nest, frequent loud noise or heavy vehicle movement near an active nest can cause developers trouble under the law.
Moreover, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service often requires seasonal restrictions, such as:
No clearing, grading, or major disturbance within a certain distance of a nest during nesting season.
Sometimes, developers are told to wait until after chicks fledge (late summer) before starting heavy work.
Buffer zones are often required — for bald eagles, this can range from 660 feet to over 1/2 mile, depending on sight lines and level of disturbance.
How Developers Usually Handle It
If a development is near eagle habitat, developers usually hire a qualified wildlife biologist early to survey for nests.
Next, they avoid and minimize impacts first by making site plan changes. If that is not possible, they apply for a permit.
Permits can take 6-12 months, so that needs to be factored into project timelines.
Even with a permit, mitigation may be required, such as
Planting new trees.
Creating conservation easements.
Donating to eagle habitat funds.
Bottom line: If eagles are nearby, developers must avoid nests. Reportedly, it’s much easier and cheaper than trying to work through the permit process.
This could be an issue for Ryko as it seeks to build 7,000 homes and a four-lane thoroughfare stretching to Spring Creek.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/18/25
2789 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/20250418-Ryko-Property-copy.jpg?fit=1100%2C605&ssl=16051100adminadmin2025-04-18 18:32:582025-04-23 12:44:55Bald Eagles Live Where Developer Wants to Build 7,000 Homes
Far More Proposals in State Flood Plan Than Funds For Them
4/20/25 – There are far more flood-risk-reduction proposals (studies, projects and strategies) in Texas’ first state flood plan than funds to finance them.
Tressa Olsen, Assistant Director of Flood Planning for the Texas Water Development Board, spoke about the plan at a meeting of the Society of American Military Engineers on 4/14/25.
Altogether, the 15 regional flood planning groups in the state identified approximately 5,000 proposals with a combined price tag of $54.5 billion. But, she says, the legislature has allocated only approximately $1.4 billion since 2019 for them.
Of the $54.5 billion, more than $34 billion are in the San Jacinto river basin.
That underscores the need for better floodplain management practices that can prevent rather than correct flooding problems – especially in the San Jacinto watershed. After more flood issues become apparent in the next big storm, it may take generations and billions of dollars to remediate them.
Right now, 14 bills pending in the state legislature mention the state’s Flood Infrastructure Fund. But most of those bills focus on prioritizing projects. Not one bill establishes a steady income stream for the Fund which helps finance mitigation projects in the State Flood Plan.
Proposed Ryko Development Makes Case For Intensive Scrutiny
Regardless, every month, it seems more and more developments are moving into floodplains and closer to rivers. Major storms can turn those rivers and streams into raging torrents that destroy homes and lives.
Last week, I focused on the proposed Ryko development immediately west of Kingwood in Montgomery County.
The company hopes to build 7,000 homes on 5,500 flood-prone acres near the confluence of Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork.
North of Ryko’s land, about halfway to the Grand Parkway and on property 30 feet higher than the confluence, is an existing subdivision called Bender’s Landing Estates. (See top of map below.) One resident told me that 53 homes there flooded during Harvey.
So, Ryko’s property below Benders Landing has even higher flood risk. See red outline superimposed over FEMA’s map below.
As the Federal government scales back disaster relief and flood mitigation assistance, and as the State doesn’t step in to provide steady funding for mitigation efforts in the State Flood Plan, the responsibility to prevent flooding will increasingly fall onto the shoulders of local officials.
But that will require local officials to update and integrate data on their own. FEMA is already years behind schedule in releasing new flood maps for the Houston region.
Elevation Data Acquired in 1988
“Base Flood Elevation” in engineer-speak is the expected height of a 1% annual-chance (100-year) flood. FEMA provides a Base-Flood-Elevation Viewer that estimates the height above ground for both 1% and .2% Annual Chance (500-year) Floods.
However, FEMA uses elevation data acquired in 1988 to estimate the height of base floods above ground level.
Near the confluence of Spring Creek and the West Fork, Ryko land would be under more than 25 feet of floodwater in a .2% annual chance flood. A point near Benders Landing Estates on much higher Ryko ground would be under 7.3 feet of water in the same flood.
A whole page in FEMA’s Base-Flood-Elevation estimates discusses disclaimers. “Everyone is at risk,” it says. “The chances of experiencing a flood can vary due to unevaluated conditions, such as the unstudied effects of community growth and development or intense storms uncharacteristic to historical trends.”
Extreme Risk Requires Extreme Caution
FEMA’s reports even suggest actions homeowners can take to reduce their flood risk and insurance premiums, such as elevating slabs. But by how much? FEMA doesn’t say. And elevation can be a shifting target.
One of the “unevaluated conditions and unstudied effects of community growth” is subsidence.
Harris-Galveston Subsidence District says subsidence at a gage next to Ryko’s property averages .73 inches per year due to groundwater withdrawal. Adding 7000 new homes would accelerate subsidence.
0.73 inches per year translates to approximately two feet of sinking during a 30-year mortgage. And that’s twice as much as the freeboard factor (safety margin) used to establish the elevation of foundations above expected floods in Montgomery County.
MoCo only requires foundations of new homes to be one foot above the base flood elevation (100-year floodplain), And we’ve had four 500-year floods in the area in the last 10-years. The image below shows what one of those floods did to townhomes in Forest Cove about a mile downstream from Ryko’s property.
Montgomery County Commissioners beware!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/21/25
2792 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Building 7,000 Homes Here Would Accelerate Subsidence
4/19/25 – Ryko, a development company, has announced plans to build 7,000 new homes in an environmentally sensitive, flood-prone area immediately west of Kingwood. Moreover, the area already experiences the highest subsidence in the north Houston region.
Residents in the area currently use groundwater. Assuming an average household size of 2.5 people, Ryko would add 17,500 new residents to the area. That could accelerate declines in groundwater levels and increase subsidence.
Reviewing the Subsidence District’s latest annual report revealed that the issue at this one reporting station is part of a larger problem. And the problem is very bad in southern Montgomery County.
Impacts of Subsidence
I have been posting about the issue for five-plus years. Subsidence happens too slowly to notice in most cases. But over time, it can be very disruptive:
For more examples of the impacts of subsidence in the north Houston area, visit StopOurSinking.com, a site developed by a Woodlands resident. There, subsidence has triggered faults and flooded multi-million-dollar homes through the “bowl effect.”
High Cost of a Little Flooding
Getting even an inch of water in your home can be very costly. According to FEMA, just 1 inch of floodwater in an average 2,000 square foot home can cost $10,000 to $20,000 to repair.
Higher-end finishes, such as wood floors, built-in cabinetry, granite, etc., can push those estimates past $25,000.
Why is one inch so expensive?
In homes larger than 2,000 square feet, the cost would go up proportionately. For instance, FEMA estimates repair costs for a 3,000 square foot home to be 50% greater – in the $15,000 – $30,000+ range.
Disasters/accidents are rarely caused by one thing. They usually result from a combination of factors eroding margins of safety.
For instance, the risk of a driving accident increases when you’re tired, it’s dark and the pavement is wet. That’s why it’s important to pay attention to little things that can degrade your margin of safety. They may not be so little in the next big storm.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/19/2025
2790 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Bald Eagles Live Where Developer Wants to Build 7,000 Homes
4/18/25 – Just upstream from the Humble/Kingwood Area, residents of Benders Landing Estates in Montgomery County frequently spot bald eagles flying overhead and resting in trees adjacent to 5,500 acres that Ryko is trying to develop for 7,000 homes.
Frequent Eagle Sightings Suggest Nearby Nests
Susan Gillespie Marrero of Benders Landing Estates, near the Ryko property, sent me video of two bald eagles landing in a tree outside her window.
Such sightings are reportedly common in that area. Marrero also sent me dozens of postings by neighbors on a community website. See example below.
Ryko’s property is one of the last areas in the north Houston region to be developed because of frequent flooding. Much of the area is covered by wetlands and swamps that make excellent habitat for wildlife. They also make excellent hunting grounds for the eagles. The Ryko property has likely become an eagle refuge.
Eagles No Longer Listed as Endangered, but Still Protected
Bald eagles, America’s official national symbol, were once listed as a threatened and endangered species, primarily due to habitat loss, hunting and pesticides.
But their numbers have recovered in recent years. In 1995, they were reclassified from endangered to threatened. And in 2007, they were removed entirely from the federal Endangered Species List.
However, they are still protected under other laws, such as the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act. And it is still illegal to harm or interfere with them or their nests without specific federal permission. Violation carries stiff fines and even jail time.
Building Near Eagles Adds Significant Time, Cost, Risk
Permit approvals can reportedly add months or even years to a construction project when eagles are involved. You must apply for an eagle permit if your project might:
Even if you don’t directly destroy a nest, frequent loud noise or heavy vehicle movement near an active nest can cause developers trouble under the law.
Moreover, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service often requires seasonal restrictions, such as:
How Developers Usually Handle It
If a development is near eagle habitat, developers usually hire a qualified wildlife biologist early to survey for nests.
Next, they avoid and minimize impacts first by making site plan changes. If that is not possible, they apply for a permit.
Permits can take 6-12 months, so that needs to be factored into project timelines.
Even with a permit, mitigation may be required, such as
Bottom line: If eagles are nearby, developers must avoid nests. Reportedly, it’s much easier and cheaper than trying to work through the permit process.
This could be an issue for Ryko as it seeks to build 7,000 homes and a four-lane thoroughfare stretching to Spring Creek.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/18/25
2789 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.