NHC Issues Flood Watch, Tropical Storm Warning, City Lowering Lake
8/31/26 – According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a broad area of thundershowers in the Gulf about a hundred miles south of Grand Isle, Louisiana, is heading toward Galveston Bay and Houston. A tropical storm warning is in effect. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible all day Tuesday. And a flood watch has been issued from Tuesday at 1 am until Wednesday at 7 am.
This animated GIF file on the NHC site shows the storm growing and starting to rotate.
Track, Rainfall, Wind Predictions
The storm will likely come ashore between Galveston Bay and Sabine Pass. At its 11 am update, NHC increased the chances of development to 80%.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, expects the main impacts of the storm to be east of I-45.
Lindner says to expect heavy rainfall of 3-6 inches near and along the storm’s track. That includes eastern Galveston, eastern Harris, Chambers, Liberty, Montgomery, and San Jacinto Counties. Isolated totals along the main path could reach 8-10 inches. However, rainfall amounts to the west of I-45 will average around 1-3 inches.
NHC says flash flooding is likely across the region, especially in urban areas.
While grounds are generally dry, excessive hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches will be possible, creating rapid run-off.
According to Lindner, the corridor of maximum rainfall looks to be fairly narrow with this system and a strong gradient of rainfall totals is likely.
“The heaviest rains should impact the San Jacinto River basin (East Fork, Peach Creek, Caney Creek) along with Luce Bayou, Cedar Bayou, Goose Creek, and Carpenters Bayou.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Significant rises may occur along these channels depending on rainfall location and eventual amounts.
Winds could reach 40-55 MPH, so expect downed tree limbs and scattered power outages.
Lake Lowering
Coastal Water Authority will begin lowering Lake Houston 1 ft below normal pool to 41.4 ft early this afternoon. Lake Houston levels can be monitored here.
Lake Conroe is already a foot below normal pool and not releasing any water as of noon on Monday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/31/26
3289 Days since Hurricane Harvey
