Houston Spared Direct Hit from TS Edouard

9/1/2026 – Tropical Storm Edouard came ashore farther east than predicted today and then veered even farther east as it moved inland. The track defied the consensus of models that predicted it would hit the northeastern parts of Harris and Montgomery Counties, especially the San Jacinto East Fork Watershed.

If the storm stays on its current track it could affect Lake Livingston more than the East Fork or Lake Conroe, as predicted last night at this time.

Screen capture from Radarscope Pro as of 9pm on 9/1/2026. Red line indicated centerline within cone of uncertainty. However, every point within the cone by definition has an equal chance of being hit by the storm.

Tip of a 2500 Square Mile Funnel

Huntsville, for instance, lies at the left edge of the cone. So theoretically, the storm could still dump several inches of rain in the Lake Conroe Watershed.

*The area just south of Huntsville drains into both the Lake Conroe/West Fork watershed and the East Fork Watershed.*

So theoretically at least, there’s still a chance that stormwater from Edouard could wind up in Lake Houston. It’s important to understand that the area outlined in red above drains into Lake Houston and comprises 2500 square miles in seven counties – an area about 50% larger than Harris County itself.

So, that’s a pretty big target. And Lake Houston is at the tip of that 2500-square-mile funnel.

What Happened to Predictions?

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s Meteorologist, had this to stay about the storm’s deviation to the east.

“Tropical storm Edouard made landfall this afternoon near Johnson Bayou, LA at 220 pm with 60mph winds.”

“Since then the strong feeder bands have contracted closer to the center and core of Edouard likely due to the interaction with land and the higher intensity at landfall. Additionally, the shorter term motion since landfall has been more toward the NNW instead of the WNW and NW,” said Lindner.

“This continued motion is being supported by the Google Deep Mind. Much of the high resolution models now take the center and heaviest rainfall more in the direction of Polk and Trinity Counties instead of just northeast of the Houston metro area.”

“While some banding on the southern side of the circulation will remain possible after midnight and into early Wednesday, the overall threat for any significant rainfall is decreasing,” continued Lindner. “Areas west of I-45 may not see much additional rainfall. Areas east of I-45 could see an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall in scattered fashion where any banding features develop.”

Lindner concluded, “Given the dry grounds that remain in place the expected rainfall amounts will likely not cause any significant flooding concerns.”

The Wake-Up Call Re: Flood Mitigation

While most people prepared for the worst and many schools and businesses closed this may come as an emotional roller coaster. However, it’s actually good news. It reminds us that little has actually been done to reduce flood potential since Harvey in the upper San Jacinto River Basin.

And that should serve as a wake-up call. With elections coming up in two months, we need to ensure that candidates remember what happened here. And how much flood mitigation work remains ahead nine years after Harvey.

Posted. by Bob Rehak on 9/1/26

3290 Days since Hurricane Harvey