Tag Archive for: growth

Doom Loops and Virtuous Cycles in Flooding

5/19/25 – In public-policy discussions, doom loops are self-reinforcing negative events or policies that lead to a downward spiral. Example: High crime rates force residents to move to safer neighborhoods. Then property values decline. The police get less money to patrol. And that leads to more crime. The area spirals downward.

Negative vs. Positive Cycles

A virtuous cycle is the opposite. It is a self-reinforcing, positive, upward spiral. Lower crime, for example, attracts population which provides the funding to keep the area even safer and growing.

You can see a doom loop in flooding if you look back far enough. Tomorrow, I will give a presentation to the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force that looks back 75 years at how Houston’s growth has affected flooding.

How We Handle Growth Is Root Issue

Unfortunately, growth is not always positive from a flooding perspective. If not managed properly, it can create a doom loop that increases flooding. The presentation focuses on how we repeat the mistakes of the past instead of reversing that downward spiral.

The table below from ChatGPT shows a generalized Flooding Doom Loop and a Flood-Resilience Virtuous Cycle for Houston.

Flooding Doom LoopFlood-Resilience Virtuous Cycle
Rapid, unzoned development in floodplainsStronger land use and drainage regulations
Loss of natural absorption (wetlands, prairies)Preservation/restoration of natural systems
Increased stormwater runoffReduced runoff and slower flow
Overloaded drainage systems and bayousImproved drainage capacity
Recurring flood damageFewer flooded properties
Disinvestment and property value declineHigher property values and stability
Underfunded flood mitigation projectsIncreased public/political support
Continued risky developmentSustainable development patterns

Add More Layers of Complexity and Depth

Now superimpose rapid population growth in ever-expanding, outward, concentric circles. That adds a new layer of complexity that my presentation explores with specific examples. It shows how areas outside Beltway 8 are fighting the same battles that areas inside the Beltway fought decades ago.

Conflicting Development Standards Across Jurisdictions

I examine, for instance:

  • Conflicting development standards across jurisdictions
  • Building too close to threats
  • Upstream changes that undermine downstream safety
  • Difficulty of adapting downstream.

We continue to grow. Houston was the second fastest growing large city in the country last year after New York when measured by increased headcount.

And our suburbs are some of the fastest growing smaller cities, too. For many years recently, Conroe was the fastest growing city in America. And new census data shows that Fulshear (near Katy) is now the second fastest growing city percentage wise.

As the metropolis sprawls, developers can exploit differences in regulations between cities and counties to increase their profit margins. My presentation shows several examples.

Check back tomorrow for Doom Loop Part II.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/19/25

2820 Days since Hurricane Harvey

When Measured by Growth of Impervious Cover, Texas Has 9 of Top 20 Counties in U.S.

According to a recent New York Times article, nine of the 20 counties in the U.S. that have experienced the most development the last decade are in Texas. Prominent among them is Harris County. The article does not cite population growth. Rather, it relies on computer analysis of satellite imagery that detects the growth of impervious cover.

Analysis of Satellite Imagery Shows Land Newly Paved or Topped With Buildings

The Times cites the work of Santa-Fe-based Descartes Labs, which positions itself as a data refinery. The company trained a computer model to automatically identify newly impervious surfaces — land that appears paved or topped with buildings — in satellite imagery. It then produced dozens of paired images that show the effects of development. It also produced a map that shows where that development took place.

This Descarte map clearly shows the pattern in Texas. Each of the major cities looks like a bullet hole in the map with development splashing out ward…a ring of concrete.

Return of Suburban and Exurban Growth

The data suggests that the growth of suburbs and exurbs has returned. There was a brief hiatus of suburban development after the housing bust in 2008, which saw people returning to the inner city. But that trend appears to be over, according to this analysis.

I’m not sure if this should be a source of pride, alarm or both.

Texas Grows While Other Areas Lose Population

Many Rust Belt cities are experiencing population shrinkage. That presents another set of problems altogether. The Times article shows how several northern cities, including Detroit, are clearing thousands of dilapidated and abandoned homes. In the process, they are restoring pervious (natural) cover.

As luck would have it, another article in The NY Times the next day talked about a slowdown in U.S. population growth. Population grew at its slowest pace in decades in 2019. A decline in the number of new immigrants, fewer births and the graying of America accounted for the decline, which the Census Bureau estimated.

Given slow population growth on the national level, local growth in Texas and Houston must come from migration. I’m not talking about foreign immigration. I’m talking about one area attracting residents and businesses from another.

Texas Has Seven of Fifteen Fastest Growing Cities in U.S.

In marketing, if the market itself is not growing, the only way for a company to grow is to steal share from its competitors. And that is exactly what Texas seems to be doing. Markets such as New York and California are losing population while Texas gained more than 14% in the last decade. From 2010 to 2018, Texas had the largest population growth in America: 3,555,731.

Texas also had 7 of the top 15 fastest growing cities in the country between 2017 and 2018.

So clearly, from a marketing point of view, Texas must be seen as a desirable place to live by many people. We’re doing many things right.

Can Texas Meet the Challenge of Rapid Growth?

But in my 45 year career in marketing and advertising, I have seen many instances where companies had record growth one year only to have record losses later. It comes down to how you manage growth.

Can you deliver what you promise and keep product quality up as you grow?

Many areas can. Many areas can’t.

County officials face a conundrum: growing rapidly while maintaining quality of life. You want to attract growth, but you don’t want to be overwhelmed by it.

Montgomery Vs. Fort Bend Counties: Strategic Differences

Some compete for growth by relaxing regulations. For instance, this video from the East Montgomery County Improvement District boasts, “We don’t have rules that confine us.” The no-hassle upfront, anything-goes, follow-your-dream approach tempts many, especially those coming from other areas with onerous regulations.

Meanwhile, other fast-growing counties, such as Fort Bend, are adopting new flood plain regulations, designed to protect the quality of life they are selling.

Tougher Fort Bend County Regulations Went Into Effect New Year’s Day.

As of 1/1/2020, Fort Bend County adopted new Atlas 14 rainfall statistics and updated their drainage criteria manual accordingly to protect new homes AND existing downstream developments. Fort Bend is the fastest growing county in the region.

There you have it. Two opposite ends of the spectrum.

It will be interesting to see the outcomes that these two development strategies produce ten years from now.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/2/2020

856 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 104 since Imelda