Doom Loops and Virtuous Cycles in Flooding
5/19/25 – In public-policy discussions, doom loops are self-reinforcing negative events or policies that lead to a downward spiral. Example: High crime rates force residents to move to safer neighborhoods. Then property values decline. The police get less money to patrol. And that leads to more crime. The area spirals downward.
Negative vs. Positive Cycles
A virtuous cycle is the opposite. It is a self-reinforcing, positive, upward spiral. Lower crime, for example, attracts population which provides the funding to keep the area even safer and growing.
You can see a doom loop in flooding if you look back far enough. Tomorrow, I will give a presentation to the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force that looks back 75 years at how Houston’s growth has affected flooding.
How We Handle Growth Is Root Issue
Unfortunately, growth is not always positive from a flooding perspective. If not managed properly, it can create a doom loop that increases flooding. The presentation focuses on how we repeat the mistakes of the past instead of reversing that downward spiral.
The table below from ChatGPT shows a generalized Flooding Doom Loop and a Flood-Resilience Virtuous Cycle for Houston.
| Flooding Doom Loop | Flood-Resilience Virtuous Cycle |
| Rapid, unzoned development in floodplains | Stronger land use and drainage regulations |
| Loss of natural absorption (wetlands, prairies) | Preservation/restoration of natural systems |
| Increased stormwater runoff | Reduced runoff and slower flow |
| Overloaded drainage systems and bayous | Improved drainage capacity |
| Recurring flood damage | Fewer flooded properties |
| Disinvestment and property value decline | Higher property values and stability |
| Underfunded flood mitigation projects | Increased public/political support |
| Continued risky development | Sustainable development patterns |
Add More Layers of Complexity and Depth
Now superimpose rapid population growth in ever-expanding, outward, concentric circles. That adds a new layer of complexity that my presentation explores with specific examples. It shows how areas outside Beltway 8 are fighting the same battles that areas inside the Beltway fought decades ago.
Conflicting Development Standards Across Jurisdictions
I examine, for instance:
- Conflicting development standards across jurisdictions
- Building too close to threats
- Upstream changes that undermine downstream safety
- Difficulty of adapting downstream.
We continue to grow. Houston was the second fastest growing large city in the country last year after New York when measured by increased headcount.
And our suburbs are some of the fastest growing smaller cities, too. For many years recently, Conroe was the fastest growing city in America. And new census data shows that Fulshear (near Katy) is now the second fastest growing city percentage wise.
As the metropolis sprawls, developers can exploit differences in regulations between cities and counties to increase their profit margins. My presentation shows several examples.
Check back tomorrow for Doom Loop Part II.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/19/25
2820 Days since Hurricane Harvey
