Edouard Archives - Reduce Flooding

9/2/26 at 4 PM – Tropical Storm Edouard to date has resembled a game of rainfall roulette for weather forecasters. Slight shifts in direction have made orders-of-magnitude differences in predicted precipitation.

Forecasters had predicted the narrow storm would hit eastern Harris County. However, it angled more north and created catastrophic flooding in Hardin County instead. Hardin lies immediately to the east of Liberty County.

Orders of Magnitude Differences Just Miles Apart

Gages in the Lake Houston Area recorded .08 inches for the last two days. Yes! Less than one tenth of an inch.

*48-hour rainfall totals during TS Edouard. Screen capture at 4 pm 9/2/26*

However, eastern Hardin County received 27.5 inches of rain – last night alone.

According to Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner, flooding continues in eastern Liberty County, Polk County, Tyler County, and Hardin County after very heavy rainfall this morning.

Doppler radar estimates from Lake Charles show a maximum of 25-28 inches over eastern Hardin County into southern Tyler County. Tyler lies immediately north of Hardin.

A Jefferson County Drainage District #6 rain gage in western Hardin County recorded 12.35 inches of rainfall in 6 hours this morning and a 24-hour total of 17.75 inches.

*Screen capture from RadarScope Pro at 3PM CDT on 9/2/26 showing remnants of Edouard far north of Lake Houston Area.*

Uncertainty Remains

South of Edouard, clouds have been decreasing and the air mass is warming. With afternoon heating, Lindner expects the tropical air mass to begin banding again, especially on the southern side.

According to Lindner, that could affect portions of Waller, Montgomery, Harris, Liberty, San Jacinto, and Polk Counties. Westerly flow from the circulation could bump into the southerly flow returning from the Gulf and possibly a weak sea breeze.

Lindner believes that, given the highly tropical air mass in place, hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches will be possible. And if this falls over areas that have already experienced significant rainfall in the last 24 hours, additional flash flooding is likely.

However, areas that have received little rainfall so far will have minimal flood risk, although some street flooding is possible. Most storm sewers can handle an inch per hour. So when rainfall rates exceed that, water can back up into streets.

Dealing with Uncertainty

The location of any additional bands remains uncertain. But models suggest banding over northern Waller and southern Montgomery Counties that sinks into portions of northern Harris County later this afternoon and evening. See predicted rainfall below for the 12 hours from Wednesday 7 pm to Thursday 7 am.

For the Lake Houston Area, Edouard was a close call. But it illustrates the need to prepare. The Harris County Flood Control District and City of Houston must accelerate their flood-mitigation activities in this area. We’ve waited long enough.

The Lake Houston Area suffered the worst flooding in Harris County during Harvey. But it has received little flood-mitigation help to date.

As of January 2026

Nine years after Harvey, we need to start building the flood-mitigation projects promised long ago. We can’t afford to keep betting on rainfall roulette.

This is an election year. If not now, when?

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/2/26

3291 Days since Hurricane Harvey

9/1/2026 – Tropical Storm Edouard came ashore farther east than predicted today and then veered even farther east as it moved inland. The track defied the consensus of models that predicted it would hit the northeastern parts of Harris and Montgomery Counties, especially the San Jacinto East Fork Watershed.

If the storm stays on its current track it could affect Lake Livingston more than the East Fork or Lake Conroe, as predicted last night at this time.

Screen capture from Radarscope Pro as of 9pm on 9/1/2026. Red line indicated centerline within cone of uncertainty. However, every point within the cone by definition has an equal chance of being hit by the storm.

Tip of a 2500 Square Mile Funnel

Huntsville, for instance, lies at the left edge of the cone. So theoretically, the storm could still dump several inches of rain in the Lake Conroe Watershed.

*The area just south of Huntsville drains into both the Lake Conroe/West Fork watershed and the East Fork Watershed.*

So theoretically at least, there’s still a chance that stormwater from Edouard could wind up in Lake Houston. It’s important to understand that the area outlined in red above drains into Lake Houston and comprises 2500 square miles in seven counties – an area about 50% larger than Harris County itself.

So, that’s a pretty big target. And Lake Houston is at the tip of that 2500-square-mile funnel.

What Happened to Predictions?

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s Meteorologist, had this to stay about the storm’s deviation to the east.

“Tropical storm Edouard made landfall this afternoon near Johnson Bayou, LA at 220 pm with 60mph winds.”

“Since then the strong feeder bands have contracted closer to the center and core of Edouard likely due to the interaction with land and the higher intensity at landfall. Additionally, the shorter term motion since landfall has been more toward the NNW instead of the WNW and NW,” said Lindner.

“This continued motion is being supported by the Google Deep Mind. Much of the high resolution models now take the center and heaviest rainfall more in the direction of Polk and Trinity Counties instead of just northeast of the Houston metro area.”

“While some banding on the southern side of the circulation will remain possible after midnight and into early Wednesday, the overall threat for any significant rainfall is decreasing,” continued Lindner. “Areas west of I-45 may not see much additional rainfall. Areas east of I-45 could see an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall in scattered fashion where any banding features develop.”

Lindner concluded, “Given the dry grounds that remain in place the expected rainfall amounts will likely not cause any significant flooding concerns.”

The Wake-Up Call Re: Flood Mitigation

While most people prepared for the worst and many schools and businesses closed this may come as an emotional roller coaster. However, it’s actually good news. It reminds us that little has actually been done to reduce flood potential since Harvey in the upper San Jacinto River Basin.

And that should serve as a wake-up call. With elections coming up in two months, we need to ensure that candidates remember what happened here. And how much flood mitigation work remains ahead nine years after Harvey.

Posted. by Bob Rehak on 9/1/26

3290 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Tag Archive for: Edouard

Rainfall Roulette