San Jacinto West Fork at 59 during Harvey.

Dawn of a Disaster: Harvey Remembered

8/29/25 – Eight years ago today, the Lake Houston Area woke up to the dawn of a disaster. During the previous day and night, the San Jacinto River rose 22 feet above flood stage at US59.

San Jacinto West Fork at 59 during Harvey.
Looking S toward Humble at the US59 bridge under swollen West Fork San Jacinto

It swept several townhomes in Forest Cove off their foundations. And destroyed all the rest for blocks around.

Forest Cove Townhome destroyed by Harvey.

Rising floodwaters eventually claimed the lives of 15 people in the Kingwood area – 12 of them in a senior center more than a mile from the river.

Residents trying to escape as Harvey's floodwaters rose
Residents trying to escape Kingwood Village Estates as Harvey’s floodwaters rose

Harvey was not a single day event. It lasted the better part of a week. Different areas fell to its driving rains and howling winds at different times.

Rainfall during Harvey recorded at the US59 Bridge over the San Jacinto West Fork. From Harris County Flood Control District’s Flood Warning System.

The Lake Houston Area bore the brunt of not only the storm, but water funneled downstream from an area 50% larger than Harris County itself.

Watershed Map of the San Jacinto River Basin

That included a massive 79,000 cubic feet per second from Lake Conroe, the largest release ever by the SJRA.

Where more than 400,000 Cubic Feet Per Second came from.

Before It Was All Over…

16,000 homes and 3,300 businesses in the Lake Houston Area flooded.

Jennifer Manning: "We lived in Kingwood from 1992-2012 before buying a house in Walden that was 'built above the '94 flood.' We finished our rehab in June." Ten months!
Multiply this times 16,000

Damage included 44% of all businesses in the Lake Houston Chamber and 100% of all businesses in Kingwood’s Town Center.

Harvey Flood in Kings Harbor. Photo by Sally Geis.

Kingwood High School flooded to the second floor. Thousands of students would be bussed to another high school for a year.

Kingwood High School during Harvey.

The flood also destroyed thousands of cars. The owners parked many of them on higher ground that they thought was safe.

Flood damaged cars hauled to a holding facility near Bush Intercontinental Airport

Displaced families shuffled from one safe haven to another as the floodwaters spread.

Harvey evacuation. Sally Geiss
Sally Geis Harvey Rescue. From a condo near the river, she evacuated up West Lake Houston Parkway. Kingwood Town Center in background.

Neighborhoods turned into islands, like lily pads, as rising water cut off evacuation routes for those who waited too long.

Carolanne Norris took this shot as she and her family hiked to safety on Valley Manor. Shot is looking back down Woods Estates. Kings Forest Pool is on right.
Two and a quarter miles north of the West Fork, Carolanne Norris took this shot as she and her family hiked to safety on Valley Manor. Shot is looking back down Woods Estates.

Raging currents damaged the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge. They also wiped out the UnionPacific bridge which they had to completely rebuild.

UP Bridge
Repair work underway on the Union Pacific Railroad Bridge that parallels US59.

Rushing floodwaters also destroyed the southbound US59 bridge.

US59 during Harvey. Photo by Melinda Ray.

TXDoT spent almost a year repairing the southbound lanes. Their supports were weakened by scouring.

I-69 repairs
Southbound lanes of I-69 bridge took almost a year to rebuild.

Grocery stores? Restaurants? Gone. People lived on Igloo cooler cuisine, potato chips and granola bars.

Whataburger in the new HEB shopping center during flooding from Hurricane Harvey. Photo courtesy of John Knoezer.
will this get any of the $750 million in CDBG-MIT funds from the GLO?
Humble shopping area near US59 and Townsen

Communications? Knocked out.

Electricity? Gone. For days or weeks in some cases. Gas stations couldn’t pump gas. Forget about air conditioning. People gutted homes in sweltering heat.

Photo by Kendall Taft: "Two feet of sheetrock removal, with floors covered in drywall muck." Atascocita Shores.
Photo by Kendall Taft: “Two feet of sheetrock removal, with floors covered in drywall muck.” Atascocita Shores.

Mountains of discarded family treasures littered streets for weeks as looters pillaged the community.

Debris on Woods Estates Drive in Kingwood months after Harvey. Video by Paul Margaritis.

Families lived in campers and RVs or with friends for months while restoring homes.

Home, Home on the Driveway! The Slaughter family lived in a trailer for almost 9 months as they gutted and restored their home.
Slaughter’s House. Gutted to the studs.

Troubles Just Beginning

But the hardest part was still to come: understanding why all this destruction happened and determining what could be done to prevent it from happening again. And finally, organizing politically to build the solutions.

We would soon discover that as much as we were united by disaster, we were also divided by recovery. That would become the dawn of a another disaster. But more on that in a future post.

For more on Harvey, see the Flood Control District’s full 32-page report on the storm.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/29/25 with thanks to the hundreds of people who have contributed pictures

2922 Days since Hurricane Harvey

will this get any of the $750 million in CDBG-MIT funds from the GLO?

SCIPP Research Sheds New Light on Key Elements of Tropical Systems

8/28/25 – NOAA’s Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) just published its annual report. It includes new research findings on three key elements of tropical systems: a lengthening tropical season, stalling storms, and tropical cyclone size at landfall.

SCIPP publishes fascinating reports tailored to the south central region of the U.S. including Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana.

The government/university partnership conducts research to understand climate hazard trends and patterns that are useful to decision makers. The information below is summarized from their annual report.

Tropical Season Lengthens 16 days

SCIPP analysis of Atlantic hurricane season length from 1970 to 2022 found that storms are forming increasingly earlier AND later in the season. In 1970, the first named storm formed around July 27th. However, by 2022, the date shifted to around May 31st. That represents an increase of season length of 11 days per decade … just on the front end.

On the back end, in 1970, the last named storm dissipated around October 24th. However, in 2022, the last storm dissipated around November 18th. This represents a roughly 5-day per decade shift, say the researchers.

“While improvements in observational practices raised some concerns about data quality,” they say, “our results suggest that the primary driver of season expansion is the earlier onset and prolonged persistence of favorable conditions for tropical cyclones, such as warm sea surface temperatures, elevated humidity, and reduced wind shear.”

The researchers recommend that the National Hurricane Center consider moving the start of hurricane season to May 15th to heighten awareness of these early season storms. They have presented their work widely within the scientific community. For more information, see Dr. Vincent Brown’s virtual presentation to the Inland Marine Underwriters Association.

Stalling Storms Increasing 1.5% Per Year

SCIPP researchers also found seasonality in stalling storms. Stalling is most common in October (17.3% of storms) and least common in August (8.2%).

Their analysis showed a significant increase in annual stalling frequency during the satellite era (1966–2020) at 1.5% per year.

They also found an increase in the proportion of stalling storms relative to all storms.

SCIPP 2024-2025 Annual Report

Stalling storms were also significantly more likely to reach major-hurricane intensity.

These findings have been presented to stakeholders, academic audiences, and emergency managers to help them better prepare for future stalling events in vulnerable regions.

“Size at Landfall” Increasing Later in Season

The third featured project was a database of tropical cyclone size at landfall.

Size at landfall is critical in determining the extent and severity of storm impacts.

SCIPP 2024-2025 Annual Report

Accurate size data allows emergency managers, planners, and policymakers to better estimate potential exposure, improve evacuation planning, allocate resources, and design infrastructure that accounts for the full spatial footprint of storms. Their database supports:

  • Enhanced risk assessments
  • Insurance modeling
  • Building codes
  • Long-term coastal planning.

The analysis found no statistically significant long-term change in size at landfall, However, it did find that:

  • Parts of the season—particularly September through November—exhibited larger landfall sizes compared to other months.
  • Average landfall size was comparable between the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast.
  • Size did not differ significantly across Category 1–4 storms.

Implications of the Three Studies


SCIPP says that collectively, these three studies highlight the “critical need to better understand tropical cyclone characteristics that directly affect coastal populations.”

The researchers hope to translate their scientific findings into actionable guidance for emergency management, infrastructure planning, and long-term community resilience.

The annual report also contains fascinating findings by leading academic institutions in the region on:

  • Hazard mitigation in areas without hazard mitigation planning capabilities
  • Heat stress and football-game kickoff times
  • Impacts of fiscal decentralization on Disaster Risk Reduction
  • Climate migration
  • Case studies
  • Workshop and intern opportunities
  • More

SCIPP’s theme is “Planning for Long-Term Change in a Short-Term World.” To learn more about their excellent work and conferences, or to sign up for their newsletters, visit SouthernClimate.org.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/28/2025

2921 Days since Hurricane Harvey

subsidence

MoCo Water War Leaves Unintended Casualties

8/18/25 – The Montgomery County (MoCo) water war has produced a number of unintended casualties in the last decade. They include:

  • Water ratepayers
  • Flood victims
  • Conroe’s reputation as the fastest growing large city in America
  • Developers
  • Area infrastructure
  • Homeowners living near fault lines
  • Neighbors in Harris County
  • Groundwater storage capacity to help the area bridge droughts
  • Science

Unfortunately, those who profited from excessive groundwater withdrawals aren’t the ones paying the price.

Subsidence problems in southern Montgomery County – once thought to be solved by the San Jacinto River Authority’s (SJRA) Groundwater Reduction Plan (GRP) – have recurred. And despite settlement of a long running lawsuit on 8/14/25, there’s still plenty of hurt to go around.

How It All Started

To comply with the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District‘s (LSGCD) rules to reduce groundwater pumping in Montgomery County, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) introduced its Groundwater Reduction Plan (GRP) in 2009. The plan addressed the need to ensure adequate water supply for the county’s rapidly growing population using surface water from Lake Conroe

The LSGCD’s rules, adopted in 2006, mandated a 30% reduction in overall groundwater pumping. In 2010, LSGCD also capped groundwater use, starting in 2016, at 64,000 acre-feet per year.

That gave the SJRA time to sell bonds, complete a half-billion dollar surface-water-treatment plant at Lake Conroe, and build a 55-mile pipeline-distribution system.

Then, the water war erupted.

Defectors Undermine Success

When water rates went up to pay for surface water, the City of Conroe, City of Magnolia, Quadvest, and Woodlands Oaks sued to get out of their GRP contracts. That, in turn, led to:

  • Conroe’s nine-year legal battle that made several round trips to the Texas Supreme Court.
  • Rate increases on participants still in the plan to make up for shortfalls created by those who left it.
  • Legal and fiscal uncertainty that burdened other GRP participants left covering shortfalls caused by the non-paying entities.
  • Uncertainty about the ability to service debt on bonds.
  • Significant legal fees affecting both sides, including water ratepayers.

Subsidence: Briefly Halted

Ironically, all this happened as the groundwater reduction plan started to reduce subsidence. Areas in The Woodlands that had subsided consistently for years saw subsidence virtually level off. But the success was brief.

Subsidence in The Woodlands at the monitoring station with the longest history. When surface water became available, subsidence virtually plateaued…until political changes at the LSGCD.

The leveling off lasted between three and four years. Then subsidence accelerated again. The trigger this time: politics.

A movement to make the LSGCD board elected rather than appointed opened the door for privately held groundwater providers. They backed a slate of candidates that favored pumping cheaper groundwater. And the groundwater pumpers won. Soon thereafter, unrestricted groundwater pumping resumed.

The newly elected board was sworn in during November, 2018, shortly before the graph above turned down again.

Groundwater Levels Decline with Changes in Groundwater Regulations

The newly elected LSGCD board removed conservation rules from their regulatory plan, leading to a rejection of the plan by the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB). This introduced uncertainty regarding the regulatory framework for groundwater management and the GRP’s role within it. 

The protracted legal battles, settled last Thursday, centered on the validity and enforceability of GRP contracts and the fees charged for surface water. 

Several cities disputed the SJRA’s ability to raise rates for surface water. Conroe initially refused to pay a rate increase implemented in 2016, and Magnolia followed suit. The SJRA responded by suing the cities for breach of contract. 

These legal challenges created significant financial strain for the SJRA and its other customers. Unpaid fees caused shortfalls that had to be covered by other GRP plan participants. The recent settlement has resolved the dispute between SJRA and Conroe. But legal battles may still continue with others.

Meanwhile, southern Montgomery County has experienced the steepest well declines in the entire region.

From Page 23 of the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District 2024 Annual Groundwater Report

From 1977 to 2025, maximum water level decline in the Chicot-Evangeline (undifferentiated) aquifer occurred in The Woodlands where water levels fell more than 400 feet. Likewise, water levels in the Jasper aquifer declined more than 250 feet near The Woodlands during the same time period.

Every water well drilled into those aquifers that USGS monitors in Montgomery County with the exception of two experienced significant water-level declines since the LSGCD board became elected. See below.

From USGS 2024 report on groundwater level changes. See Figure 7. Virtually all MoCo wells drilled into the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers declined between 20 and 50 feet from 2019 to 2024.
From USGS 2024 report on groundwater level changes. See Figure 11. All MoCo wells drilled in the Jasper aquifer declined between 20 and 50 feet from 2019 to 2024.

Clearly, the trend is not sustainable.

Flooding Worsened

As subsidence worsened, so did flooding in many parts of The Woodlands, especially those near streams whose gradients changed and those who lived near down-thrust faults that created bowls in the landscape.

Water Capacity Crunch Led to Development Moratorium

The U.S. Census Bureau rated Conroe the fastest‑growing large city in America for the period from July 1, 2015, to July 1, 2016. However, within several years, Conroe experienced a water-capacity shortfall and imposed a development moratorium (Aug 29, 2024).

TCEQ later approved a temporary reduction in the required water-supply allocation per connection—from 0.60 to 0.46 gpm—so projects could restart under tighter per-lot assumptions. For a year, that pause reportedly stalled plats, permits, and site work citywide

It even affected large commercial projects. The Conroe Courier reported that Kelsey-Seybold was considering pulling a $24 million medical facility. Construction could not move forward because of concerns about water infrastructure capability.

With the settlement announced last Friday, Conroe has ended the development moratorium for now, but projects must use the TCEQ-approved 0.46 gpm through Feb. 2029. But the City’s plan reviewers will reportedly press for conservation fixtures/phasing until new supply is online.

The Greater Houston Homebuilders Association said the moratorium had had “detrimental effects on every facet of our industry from concrete to roofers, to pools to developers and builders.”

Under the terms of last week’s settlement, SJRA will provide additional water to Conroe. Heather Ramsey of the SJRA said that, “The additional surface water should keep them from using additional groundwater to accommodate their growth.” But in the meantime…

Homes Near Fault Lines Damaged

Deregulation of aquifer groundwater withdrawal in Montgomery County by the LSGCD led to declines in area water wells.

As Conroe and surrounding areas pumped more and more groundwater, subsidence continued. That triggered geologic faults in The Woodlands, which damaged homes.

Home split by subsidence
Woodlands home split in half when groundwater extraction led to subsidence that activated a fault-line.
Steps in front of same house dropped so far, they had to be replaced and are now twice their original height.

It also damaged infrastructure.

Subsidence induced by groundwater pumping
Faulting damage exacerbated by subsidence due to excessive groundwater extraction at The Woodlands High School.

Two subsidence experts in The Woodlands gave me a tour of three fault lines. Street after street showed dips, cracks, and storm sewer damage aligned precisely with the fault lines. Some of the repairs reportedly cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Many Paid the Price

Excessive groundwater withdrawals are also tilting Lake Houston. The area near the dam is subsiding much slower than the area in the headwaters of the Lake near the Montgomery County Line.

I listed science as the last victim in the water war. At some point during this skirmish, subsidence deniers started trotting out their own studies claiming huge volumes of water from the aquifers above could be produced without adverse consequences.

The loss of groundwater storage capacity due to subsidence will also leave Montgomery County more vulnerable to future droughts. Groundwater backs up surface water supplies. And now there will be less groundwater storage volume.

Someday, this will become a cautionary case study for other areas that think of groundwater as an unlimited resource.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/19/25

2912 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.