San Jacinto Preserve/Scarborough aka Ryko

New Plans to Develop 5,316 Acres West of Kingwood Mostly in Floodplains, Floodways

10/30/25 – San Jacinto Preserve (aka Scarborough Development) presented new plans yesterday to the City of Houston District E Council Member Fred Flickinger and Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE, for the development of 5,316 acres most of which is in floodplains or floodways. The land lies where Spring Creek, Cypress Creek, Turkey Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork converge south of the Grand Parkway.

Meeting in Response to City’s Request for More Information

Council Member Flickinger and Commissioner Ramsey both had requested the City Planning Commission to defer approval of the new development by taking it off their consent agenda on 10/16/25 until the City could learn more.

San Jacinto Preserve
General plan submitted to Houston Planning Commission didn’t show much detail.

In response, the District E office said the developer presented these two pages at the followup meeting on 10/29/25.

The first looks somewhat like a paisley shirt. The new plans show where homes and detention basins would be built, but they omit floodplain/floodway boundaries, streets and wetlands.

For a high-resolution PDF suitable for printing, click here.

Note that the new plan still shows a proposed corridor for Townsen Road, which was taken off the Montgomery County 2025 Road Bond. It also shows a bridge across Spring Creek which Commissioner Ramsey previously (and strenuously) objected to.

The developer also presented the following summary sheet, designed to allay concerns. It says that out of the total 5,316 acres, only 2,012 are “intended” for development. 550 acres are set aside for detention and floodplain mitigation. And 2,754 acres are not “intended” for development – 52% of the total tract. See the pie chart below. Then compare the percentages to the map above.

My eye sees less green than gray in the map above. But the irregular shapes make it difficult to precisely quantify percentages. So, judge for yourself.

Troubling, Vague Language

The developer also presented this summary sheet along with the new plans.

Presented to Ramsey and Flickinger on 10/29/25. For a high-resolution, printable PDF, click here.

Note that the Summary Sheet above uses words such as “intended,” “proposed,” and “limited.” They should raise red flags. They convey promises without legal obligations and beg for explanation that isn’t given.

But there may be an even bigger problem in the Summary Sheet. The developer claims it’s using updated flood maps. However, they don’t show the extent of floodplains and floodways. Nor do they show the difference between the existing and as-yet-unreleased new maps.

To my eye, the outlines of the floodplains and floodways around areas containing homes look suspiciously like FEMA’s existing map for this area.

And note the reference to “wetlands mitigation credits.” That means they’re mitigating the wetlands they destroy, but doing it somewhere else, i.e., not on this site. So the mitigation may or may not help people in Humble, Kingwood and the Lake Houston Area. It all depends on where the credits are.

LONO References Demand Elaboration

The “LONO” references in the Summary Sheet stand for Letters of No Objection. They imply approval but mean something entirely different.

“LONO” is a formal statement issued by a regulatory authority to indicate that it has no objection to a proposed action, activity, or project — provided certain conditions are met and no specific approval is required under existing rules.

For instance, Harris County Flood Control District issued the LONO for a bridge across Spring Creek without seeing any plans. Such letters serve as an assurance during the early stages of a project that the regulator does not see a regulatory barrier. However, the letter does not relieve the applicant of responsibility for compliance with other requirements or liabilities that may arise.

In the case of the proposed bridge across Spring Creek, there are no laws against bridges. However, the HCFCD letter clearly laid out the need for additional studies, plan reviews and permits.

I have not yet obtained a copy of the Montgomery County LONO, but have filed a FOIA request.

Much Green Space Could Not Be Developed Anyway

While the “52% green space” claim sounds like a concession to preservation and safety concerns, City of Houston regulations already prohibit building in floodplains and floodways without significant restrictions. And this land is almost ALL floodways and floodplains.

Ryko drainage impact study illustration showing outline and floodplains.
Floodplains shown by Ryko (the previous owner) in their drainage analysis.

Restrictions include:

  • Elevation of the first finished floor 2 feet above the 500-year flood elevation
  • Construction on stilts/piers to allow water to flow under the home without constricting the flow of water
  • A floodplain development permit
  • Flood insurance.

Such restrictions raise the price of building in such areas while lowering the demand, making development – and home ownership – much riskier.

From FEMA’s Base Flood Elevation Viewer.

At the southern end of the area, builders would have to raise homes 27.1 feet to comply with City of Houston regulations…if they could get a permit.

“Like Aiming a Fire Hose at Kingwood”

One of the most respected hydrologists in the region told ReduceFlooding.com that if that area got developed, it would be like “aiming a fire hose at Kingwood and Humble.”

Yet Chapter 11.086 of the Texas State Water Code requires “no adverse impact” on surrounding areas.

The preliminary drainage study by the previous owner of the land came under fire from Montgomery County Engineering.

But the letter objecting to the study’s conclusions was later rescinded after it came under fire from MoCo Precinct 3 Commissioner James Noack. Noack was subsequently voted out of office by his constituents. The letter cited a “sincere concern for the safety of the public.” The risk of development was just too high, it said.

Leading Preservation Group Has Better Plan

The Bayou Land Conservancy, one of the leading conservation groups in the area, issued the following statement today after reviewing the plans above.

“Bayou Land Conservancy believes that the highest and best use of this entire tract is conservation that protects upstream and downstream communities from flooding, while preserving the quality of our drinking water.”

“Although the developer currently plans to set aside 52% of the available land with ‘no future plans of development,’ conservation easements would act as permanent protection of those areas and give the nearby community an assurance that they would remain green space forever.”

I couldn’t agree more. Just a mile downstream on the San Jacinto West Fork, townhomes in Forest Cove were flooded to the third floor. And some were swept off their foundations.

Riverview townhome
Forest Cove Townhome destroyed by Harvey one mile downstream from proposed development on West Fork.

Rather than make the public pay handsomely to buy out such properties after they flood, why not just keep the area natural?

The entire proposed development is laced with wetlands which act as natural sponges during floods.
Proposed development photographed from a helicopter flying over the West Fork on 6/22/25.

All those trees create friction that reduces the speed of floodwaters coming into the Humble/Kingwood area. Removing them would increase the velocity of floodwaters that have already swept homes off their foundations.

Leaving this land natural would avoid future home damages and mitigation costs altogether. At a much lower cost to the public and unsuspecting home buyers.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/30/25

2984 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

San Jacinto West Fork at 59 during Harvey.

Dawn of a Disaster: Harvey Remembered

8/29/25 – Eight years ago today, the Lake Houston Area woke up to the dawn of a disaster. During the previous day and night, the San Jacinto River rose 22 feet above flood stage at US59.

San Jacinto West Fork at 59 during Harvey.
Looking S toward Humble at the US59 bridge under swollen West Fork San Jacinto

It swept several townhomes in Forest Cove off their foundations. And destroyed all the rest for blocks around.

Forest Cove Townhome destroyed by Harvey.

Rising floodwaters eventually claimed the lives of 15 people in the Kingwood area – 12 of them in a senior center more than a mile from the river.

Residents trying to escape as Harvey's floodwaters rose
Residents trying to escape Kingwood Village Estates as Harvey’s floodwaters rose

Harvey was not a single day event. It lasted the better part of a week. Different areas fell to its driving rains and howling winds at different times.

Rainfall during Harvey recorded at the US59 Bridge over the San Jacinto West Fork. From Harris County Flood Control District’s Flood Warning System.

The Lake Houston Area bore the brunt of not only the storm, but water funneled downstream from an area 50% larger than Harris County itself.

Watershed Map of the San Jacinto River Basin

That included a massive 79,000 cubic feet per second from Lake Conroe, the largest release ever by the SJRA.

Where more than 400,000 Cubic Feet Per Second came from.

Before It Was All Over…

16,000 homes and 3,300 businesses in the Lake Houston Area flooded.

Jennifer Manning: "We lived in Kingwood from 1992-2012 before buying a house in Walden that was 'built above the '94 flood.' We finished our rehab in June." Ten months!
Multiply this times 16,000

Damage included 44% of all businesses in the Lake Houston Chamber and 100% of all businesses in Kingwood’s Town Center.

Harvey Flood in Kings Harbor. Photo by Sally Geis.

Kingwood High School flooded to the second floor. Thousands of students would be bussed to another high school for a year.

Kingwood High School during Harvey.

The flood also destroyed thousands of cars. The owners parked many of them on higher ground that they thought was safe.

Flood damaged cars hauled to a holding facility near Bush Intercontinental Airport

Displaced families shuffled from one safe haven to another as the floodwaters spread.

Harvey evacuation. Sally Geiss
Sally Geis Harvey Rescue. From a condo near the river, she evacuated up West Lake Houston Parkway. Kingwood Town Center in background.

Neighborhoods turned into islands, like lily pads, as rising water cut off evacuation routes for those who waited too long.

Carolanne Norris took this shot as she and her family hiked to safety on Valley Manor. Shot is looking back down Woods Estates. Kings Forest Pool is on right.
Two and a quarter miles north of the West Fork, Carolanne Norris took this shot as she and her family hiked to safety on Valley Manor. Shot is looking back down Woods Estates.

Raging currents damaged the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge. They also wiped out the UnionPacific bridge which they had to completely rebuild.

UP Bridge
Repair work underway on the Union Pacific Railroad Bridge that parallels US59.

Rushing floodwaters also destroyed the southbound US59 bridge.

US59 during Harvey. Photo by Melinda Ray.

TXDoT spent almost a year repairing the southbound lanes. Their supports were weakened by scouring.

I-69 repairs
Southbound lanes of I-69 bridge took almost a year to rebuild.

Grocery stores? Restaurants? Gone. People lived on Igloo cooler cuisine, potato chips and granola bars.

Whataburger in the new HEB shopping center during flooding from Hurricane Harvey. Photo courtesy of John Knoezer.
will this get any of the $750 million in CDBG-MIT funds from the GLO?
Humble shopping area near US59 and Townsen

Communications? Knocked out.

Electricity? Gone. For days or weeks in some cases. Gas stations couldn’t pump gas. Forget about air conditioning. People gutted homes in sweltering heat.

Photo by Kendall Taft: "Two feet of sheetrock removal, with floors covered in drywall muck." Atascocita Shores.
Photo by Kendall Taft: “Two feet of sheetrock removal, with floors covered in drywall muck.” Atascocita Shores.

Mountains of discarded family treasures littered streets for weeks as looters pillaged the community.

Debris on Woods Estates Drive in Kingwood months after Harvey. Video by Paul Margaritis.

Families lived in campers and RVs or with friends for months while restoring homes.

Home, Home on the Driveway! The Slaughter family lived in a trailer for almost 9 months as they gutted and restored their home.
Slaughter’s House. Gutted to the studs.

Troubles Just Beginning

But the hardest part was still to come: understanding why all this destruction happened and determining what could be done to prevent it from happening again. And finally, organizing politically to build the solutions.

We would soon discover that as much as we were united by disaster, we were also divided by recovery. That would become the dawn of a another disaster. But more on that in a future post.

For more on Harvey, see the Flood Control District’s full 32-page report on the storm.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/29/25 with thanks to the hundreds of people who have contributed pictures

2922 Days since Hurricane Harvey

will this get any of the $750 million in CDBG-MIT funds from the GLO?

SCIPP Research Sheds New Light on Key Elements of Tropical Systems

8/28/25 – NOAA’s Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) just published its annual report. It includes new research findings on three key elements of tropical systems: a lengthening tropical season, stalling storms, and tropical cyclone size at landfall.

SCIPP publishes fascinating reports tailored to the south central region of the U.S. including Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana.

The government/university partnership conducts research to understand climate hazard trends and patterns that are useful to decision makers. The information below is summarized from their annual report.

Tropical Season Lengthens 16 days

SCIPP analysis of Atlantic hurricane season length from 1970 to 2022 found that storms are forming increasingly earlier AND later in the season. In 1970, the first named storm formed around July 27th. However, by 2022, the date shifted to around May 31st. That represents an increase of season length of 11 days per decade … just on the front end.

On the back end, in 1970, the last named storm dissipated around October 24th. However, in 2022, the last storm dissipated around November 18th. This represents a roughly 5-day per decade shift, say the researchers.

“While improvements in observational practices raised some concerns about data quality,” they say, “our results suggest that the primary driver of season expansion is the earlier onset and prolonged persistence of favorable conditions for tropical cyclones, such as warm sea surface temperatures, elevated humidity, and reduced wind shear.”

The researchers recommend that the National Hurricane Center consider moving the start of hurricane season to May 15th to heighten awareness of these early season storms. They have presented their work widely within the scientific community. For more information, see Dr. Vincent Brown’s virtual presentation to the Inland Marine Underwriters Association.

Stalling Storms Increasing 1.5% Per Year

SCIPP researchers also found seasonality in stalling storms. Stalling is most common in October (17.3% of storms) and least common in August (8.2%).

Their analysis showed a significant increase in annual stalling frequency during the satellite era (1966–2020) at 1.5% per year.

They also found an increase in the proportion of stalling storms relative to all storms.

SCIPP 2024-2025 Annual Report

Stalling storms were also significantly more likely to reach major-hurricane intensity.

These findings have been presented to stakeholders, academic audiences, and emergency managers to help them better prepare for future stalling events in vulnerable regions.

“Size at Landfall” Increasing Later in Season

The third featured project was a database of tropical cyclone size at landfall.

Size at landfall is critical in determining the extent and severity of storm impacts.

SCIPP 2024-2025 Annual Report

Accurate size data allows emergency managers, planners, and policymakers to better estimate potential exposure, improve evacuation planning, allocate resources, and design infrastructure that accounts for the full spatial footprint of storms. Their database supports:

  • Enhanced risk assessments
  • Insurance modeling
  • Building codes
  • Long-term coastal planning.

The analysis found no statistically significant long-term change in size at landfall, However, it did find that:

  • Parts of the season—particularly September through November—exhibited larger landfall sizes compared to other months.
  • Average landfall size was comparable between the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast.
  • Size did not differ significantly across Category 1–4 storms.

Implications of the Three Studies


SCIPP says that collectively, these three studies highlight the “critical need to better understand tropical cyclone characteristics that directly affect coastal populations.”

The researchers hope to translate their scientific findings into actionable guidance for emergency management, infrastructure planning, and long-term community resilience.

The annual report also contains fascinating findings by leading academic institutions in the region on:

  • Hazard mitigation in areas without hazard mitigation planning capabilities
  • Heat stress and football-game kickoff times
  • Impacts of fiscal decentralization on Disaster Risk Reduction
  • Climate migration
  • Case studies
  • Workshop and intern opportunities
  • More

SCIPP’s theme is “Planning for Long-Term Change in a Short-Term World.” To learn more about their excellent work and conferences, or to sign up for their newsletters, visit SouthernClimate.org.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/28/2025

2921 Days since Hurricane Harvey