8/28/25 – NOAA’s Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) just published its annual report. It includes new research findings on three key elements of tropical systems: a lengthening tropical season, stalling storms, and tropical cyclone size at landfall.
SCIPP publishes fascinating reports tailored to the south central region of the U.S. including Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana.
The government/university partnership conducts research to understand climate hazard trends and patterns that are useful to decision makers. The information below is summarized from their annual report.
Tropical Season Lengthens 16 days
SCIPP analysis of Atlantic hurricane season length from 1970 to 2022 found that storms are forming increasingly earlier AND later in the season. In 1970, the first named storm formed around July 27th. However, by 2022, the date shifted to around May 31st. That represents an increase of season length of 11 days per decade … just on the front end.
On the back end, in 1970, the last named storm dissipated around October 24th. However, in 2022, the last storm dissipated around November 18th. This represents a roughly 5-day per decade shift, say the researchers.
“While improvements in observational practices raised some concerns about data quality,” they say, “our results suggest that the primary driver of season expansion is the earlier onset and prolonged persistence of favorable conditions for tropical cyclones, such as warm sea surface temperatures, elevated humidity, and reduced wind shear.”
The researchers recommend that the National Hurricane Center consider moving the start of hurricane season to May 15th to heighten awareness of these early season storms. They have presented their work widely within the scientific community. For more information, see Dr. Vincent Brown’s virtual presentation to the Inland Marine Underwriters Association.
Stalling Storms Increasing 1.5% Per Year
SCIPP researchers also found seasonality in stalling storms. Stalling is most common in October (17.3% of storms) and least common in August (8.2%).
Their analysis showed a significant increase in annual stalling frequency during the satellite era (1966–2020) at 1.5% per year.
They also found an increase in the proportion of stalling storms relative to all storms.
SCIPP 2024-2025 Annual Report
Stalling storms were also significantly more likely to reach major-hurricane intensity.
These findings have been presented to stakeholders, academic audiences, and emergency managers to help them better prepare for future stalling events in vulnerable regions.
“Size at Landfall” Increasing Later in Season
The third featured project was a database of tropical cyclone size at landfall.
Size at landfall is critical in determining the extent and severity of storm impacts.
SCIPP 2024-2025 Annual Report
Accurate size data allows emergency managers, planners, and policymakers to better estimate potential exposure, improve evacuation planning, allocate resources, and design infrastructure that accounts for the full spatial footprint of storms. Their database supports:
Enhanced risk assessments
Insurance modeling
Building codes
Long-term coastal planning.
The analysis found no statistically significant long-term change in size at landfall, However, it did find that:
Parts of the season—particularly September through November—exhibited larger landfall sizes compared to other months.
Average landfall size was comparable between the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast.
Size did not differ significantly across Category 1–4 storms.
Implications of the Three Studies
SCIPP says that collectively, these three studies highlight the “critical need to better understand tropical cyclone characteristics that directly affect coastal populations.”
The researchers hope to translate their scientific findings into actionable guidance for emergency management, infrastructure planning, and long-term community resilience.
The annual report also contains fascinating findings by leading academic institutions in the region on:
Hazard mitigation in areas without hazard mitigation planning capabilities
Heat stress and football-game kickoff times
Impacts of fiscal decentralization on Disaster Risk Reduction
Climate migration
Case studies
Workshop and intern opportunities
More
SCIPP’s theme is “Planning for Long-Term Change in a Short-Term World.” To learn more about their excellent work and conferences, or to sign up for their newsletters, visit SouthernClimate.org.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/28/2025
2921 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/TS-Harvey-8-30-17-209.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=17681024adminadmin2025-08-28 19:29:022025-08-28 19:41:24SCIPP Research Sheds New Light on Key Elements of Tropical Systems
8/18/25 – The Montgomery County (MoCo) water war has produced a number of unintended casualties in the last decade. They include:
Water ratepayers
Flood victims
Conroe’s reputation as the fastest growing large city in America
Developers
Area infrastructure
Homeowners living near fault lines
Neighbors in Harris County
Groundwater storage capacity to help the area bridge droughts
Science
Unfortunately, those who profited from excessive groundwater withdrawals aren’t the ones paying the price.
Subsidence problems in southern Montgomery County – once thought to be solved by the San Jacinto River Authority’s (SJRA) Groundwater Reduction Plan (GRP) – have recurred. And despite settlement of a long running lawsuit on 8/14/25, there’s still plenty of hurt to go around.
How It All Started
To comply with the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District‘s (LSGCD) rules to reduce groundwater pumping in Montgomery County, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) introduced its Groundwater Reduction Plan (GRP) in 2009. The plan addressed the need to ensure adequate water supply for the county’s rapidly growing population using surface water from Lake Conroe.
The LSGCD’s rules, adopted in 2006, mandated a 30% reduction in overall groundwater pumping. In 2010, LSGCD also capped groundwater use, starting in 2016, at 64,000 acre-feet per year.
That gave the SJRA time to sell bonds, complete a half-billion dollar surface-water-treatment plant at Lake Conroe, and build a 55-mile pipeline-distribution system.
Then, the water war erupted.
Defectors Undermine Success
When water rates went up to pay for surface water, the City of Conroe, City of Magnolia, Quadvest, and Woodlands Oaks sued to get out of their GRP contracts. That, in turn, led to:
Conroe’s nine-year legal battle that made several round trips to the Texas Supreme Court.
Rate increases on participants still in the plan to make up for shortfalls created by those who left it.
Legal and fiscal uncertainty that burdened other GRP participants left covering shortfalls caused by the non-paying entities.
Uncertainty about the ability to service debt on bonds.
Significant legal fees affecting both sides, including water ratepayers.
Subsidence: Briefly Halted
Ironically, all this happened as the groundwater reduction plan started to reduce subsidence. Areas in The Woodlands that had subsided consistently for years saw subsidence virtually level off. But the success was brief.
Subsidence in The Woodlands at the monitoring station with the longest history. When surface water became available, subsidence virtually plateaued…until political changes at the LSGCD.
The leveling off lasted between three and four years. Then subsidence accelerated again. The trigger this time: politics.
The newly elected board was sworn in during November, 2018, shortly before the graph above turned down again.
Groundwater Levels Decline with Changes in Groundwater Regulations
The newly elected LSGCD board removed conservation rules from their regulatory plan, leading to a rejection of the plan by the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB). This introduced uncertainty regarding the regulatory framework for groundwater management and the GRP’s role within it.
Several cities disputed the SJRA’s ability to raise rates for surface water. Conroe initially refused to pay a rate increase implemented in 2016, and Magnolia followed suit. The SJRA responded by suing the cities for breach of contract.
These legal challenges created significant financial strain for the SJRA and its other customers. Unpaid fees caused shortfalls that had to be covered by other GRP plan participants. The recent settlement has resolved the dispute between SJRA and Conroe. But legal battles may still continue with others.
Meanwhile, southern Montgomery County has experienced the steepest well declines in the entire region.
From 1977 to 2025, maximum water level decline in the Chicot-Evangeline (undifferentiated) aquifer occurred in The Woodlands where water levels fell more than 400 feet. Likewise, water levels in the Jasper aquifer declined more than 250 feet near The Woodlands during the same time period.
Every water well drilled into those aquifers that USGS monitors in Montgomery County with the exception of two experienced significant water-level declines since the LSGCD board became elected. See below.
As subsidence worsened, so did flooding in many parts of The Woodlands, especially those near streams whose gradients changed and those who lived near down-thrust faults that created bowls in the landscape.
Water Capacity Crunch Led to Development Moratorium
The U.S. Census Bureau rated Conroe the fastest‑growing large city in America for the period from July 1, 2015, to July 1, 2016. However, within several years, Conroe experienced a water-capacity shortfall and imposed a development moratorium (Aug 29, 2024).
TCEQ later approved a temporary reduction in the required water-supply allocation per connection—from 0.60 to 0.46 gpm—so projects could restart under tighter per-lot assumptions. For a year, that pause reportedly stalled plats, permits, and site work citywide.
It even affected large commercial projects. The Conroe Courier reported that Kelsey-Seybold was considering pulling a $24 million medical facility. Construction could not move forward because of concerns about water infrastructure capability.
With the settlement announced last Friday, Conroe has ended the development moratorium for now, but projects must use the TCEQ-approved 0.46 gpm through Feb. 2029. But the City’s plan reviewers will reportedly press for conservation fixtures/phasing until new supply is online.
The Greater Houston Homebuilders Association said the moratorium had had “detrimental effects on every facet of our industry from concrete to roofers, to pools to developers and builders.”
Under the terms of last week’s settlement, SJRA will provide additional water to Conroe. Heather Ramsey of the SJRA said that, “The additional surface water should keep them from using additional groundwater to accommodate their growth.” But in the meantime…
Homes Near Fault Lines Damaged
Deregulation of aquifer groundwater withdrawal in Montgomery County by the LSGCD led to declines in area water wells.
As Conroe and surrounding areas pumped more and more groundwater, subsidence continued. That triggered geologic faults in The Woodlands, which damaged homes.
Woodlands home split in half when groundwater extraction led to subsidence that activated a fault-line.Steps in front of same house dropped so far, they had to be replaced and are now twice their original height.
It also damaged infrastructure.
Faulting damage exacerbated by subsidence due to excessive groundwater extraction at The Woodlands High School.
Two subsidence experts in The Woodlands gave me a tour of three fault lines. Street after street showed dips, cracks, and storm sewer damage aligned precisely with the fault lines. Some of the repairs reportedly cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Many Paid the Price
Excessive groundwater withdrawals are also tilting Lake Houston. The area near the dam is subsiding much slower than the area in the headwaters of the Lake near the Montgomery County Line.
I listed science as the last victim in the water war. At some point during this skirmish, subsidence deniers started trotting out their own studies claiming huge volumes of water from the aquifers above could be produced without adverse consequences.
The loss of groundwater storage capacity due to subsidence will also leave Montgomery County more vulnerable to future droughts. Groundwater backs up surface water supplies. And now there will be less groundwater storage volume.
Someday, this will become a cautionary case study for other areas that think of groundwater as an unlimited resource.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/19/25
2912 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Subsidence-Plateau.png?fit=1460%2C1092&ssl=110921460adminadmin2025-08-19 21:12:282025-08-22 17:24:10MoCo Water War Leaves Unintended Casualties
8/15/25 – The San Jacinto River Authority and City of Conroe issued a joint press release about the settlement this morning of their nine-year legal battle over water rates. This press release just came in. I’ve added subheads to help highlight key points. Otherwise, the text between the lines is verbatim:
SJRA Directors Unanimously Approve
Conroe, Texas—Today the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) Board of Directors unanimously approved the execution of a Mutual Release and Settlement Agreement with the City of Conroe to end current litigation related to the SJRA Groundwater Reduction Plan (GRP). The City of Conroe considered and approved the Mutual Release and Settlement Agreement at a City Council meeting on Thursday.
End to Legal Squabbles is Mutually Beneficial
SJRA General Manager, Aubrey Spear, said “We appreciate the City of Conroe’s efforts in working with SJRA in reaching this settlement agreement. Putting this litigation behind us is best for all GRP participants and their rate payers. With Conroe’s payment and savings on legal fees, the wholesale water rates will go down. Ending the litigation also strengthens our partnership with Conroe to continue supplying water to its growing population.”
Conroe City Administrator, Gary Scott, said “After months of negotiations, I am pleased with an outcome that is truly beneficial to both parties. Securing additional water is critical to Conroe’s economic growth and long-term vitality. We recognize and appreciate the efforts of the San Jacinto River Authority in working with us. This agreement represents a shared commitment to the betterment of us all. This is a historic decision that sets Conroe on the path to the future.”
The agreement settles legal disputes between the parties dating back to 2016 when the City of Conroe disputed increases in wholesale water rates related to SJRA’s 2010 Groundwater Reduction Plan contract.
Conroe Agrees to Pay Full Amount
In the settlement, the City of Conroe agrees to pay the full amount that it has short-paid SJRA since 2017 to the present that it has been holding in escrow. Conroe also agrees to begin paying the current rate for treated surface water from Lake Conroe and the groundwater pumpage fee going forward.
SJRA Agrees to Provide More Surface Water and More
On the other hand, SJRA agrees to provide Conroe with additional surface water, reduce the term of Conroe’s GRP contract from 80 years to 40 years, forgive penalties and fees on past due amounts, and clarify in the contract that there is no obligation by the City of Conroe to participate in future GRP phases or expansion of the GRP water treatment plant.
Documents Not Yet Available
Agreement documents are in the process of being fully executed.
Reliance on Groundwater Has Contributed to Subsidence
This is good news for both parties. It will reduce the amount they spend on legal fees that rate- and taxpayers have funded.
However, the press release did not address how it will affect the amount of groundwater that Conroe pumps aside from saying that SJRA will provide Conroe with “additional surface water.”
Subsidence in southern Montgomery County including Conroe and the Woodlands is among the most severe in the region. SJRA’s Water Treatment Plant and the Groundwater Reduction Plan were at the heart of the lawsuit. Both were intended to reduce subsidence. And they did briefly when the plant first came online in 2015. Then the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District (LSGCD) started pumping huge amounts of groundwater, claiming there was no connection between the loss of groundwater and subsidence.
LSGCD says on their Resources Page under the subsidence tab that, “…the rate at which [their] compaction occurs is 10 times (10x) slower than the rate at which compaction occurs in Harris County.”
Regardless, a huge area is still sinking 8 to 12 millimeters per year. And most of Montgomery County is sinking at least 6 according to this subsidence map recently published by the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District.
Subsidence Has Triggered Faults
The subsidence has triggered faults in the area. That in turn has damaged homes, streets and drainage infrastructure. I spent a whole day last week taking a fault tour of the Woodlands with area residents. Below are three of dozens of pictures I took at day.
Fault line under the foundation cracked this Woodland’s home’s slab and walls.Front steps are now twice their original height because the front yard sank relative to the front door.Faulting damage in parking lot of Woodland’s High School.
Millimeters may not sound like much. But 12 millimeters per year is half an inch per year. During the life of a 30-year mortgage, that’s 15 inches…plus a lot of home and street repairs, and a lot of foundation leveling.
Inland subsidence has also been linked to flooding. It can change the gradient of streams and rivers, so water moves more slowly and builds higher during floods.
And differential subsidence (between two areas) can reduce the height of structures above floodplains. For instance, the subsidence rate in Conroe is far higher than subsidence at the Lake Houston Dam. That means homes north of the dam have less freeboard (height above expected floods). Said another way, it’s like tilting Lake Houston toward the homes north of the dam.
SJRA has not yet responded to questions about how the settlement will affect Conroe’s groundwater pumping.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/15/25
2908 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/10-year-Subsidence-Rates.png?fit=1624%2C1532&ssl=115321624adminadmin2025-08-15 15:55:562025-08-15 16:14:58SJRA, Conroe Settle Lawsuit after Nine Years
SCIPP Research Sheds New Light on Key Elements of Tropical Systems
8/28/25 – NOAA’s Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) just published its annual report. It includes new research findings on three key elements of tropical systems: a lengthening tropical season, stalling storms, and tropical cyclone size at landfall.
SCIPP publishes fascinating reports tailored to the south central region of the U.S. including Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana.
The government/university partnership conducts research to understand climate hazard trends and patterns that are useful to decision makers. The information below is summarized from their annual report.
Tropical Season Lengthens 16 days
SCIPP analysis of Atlantic hurricane season length from 1970 to 2022 found that storms are forming increasingly earlier AND later in the season. In 1970, the first named storm formed around July 27th. However, by 2022, the date shifted to around May 31st. That represents an increase of season length of 11 days per decade … just on the front end.
On the back end, in 1970, the last named storm dissipated around October 24th. However, in 2022, the last storm dissipated around November 18th. This represents a roughly 5-day per decade shift, say the researchers.
“While improvements in observational practices raised some concerns about data quality,” they say, “our results suggest that the primary driver of season expansion is the earlier onset and prolonged persistence of favorable conditions for tropical cyclones, such as warm sea surface temperatures, elevated humidity, and reduced wind shear.”
The researchers recommend that the National Hurricane Center consider moving the start of hurricane season to May 15th to heighten awareness of these early season storms. They have presented their work widely within the scientific community. For more information, see Dr. Vincent Brown’s virtual presentation to the Inland Marine Underwriters Association.
Stalling Storms Increasing 1.5% Per Year
SCIPP researchers also found seasonality in stalling storms. Stalling is most common in October (17.3% of storms) and least common in August (8.2%).
Their analysis showed a significant increase in annual stalling frequency during the satellite era (1966–2020) at 1.5% per year.
Stalling storms were also significantly more likely to reach major-hurricane intensity.
These findings have been presented to stakeholders, academic audiences, and emergency managers to help them better prepare for future stalling events in vulnerable regions.
“Size at Landfall” Increasing Later in Season
The third featured project was a database of tropical cyclone size at landfall.
Accurate size data allows emergency managers, planners, and policymakers to better estimate potential exposure, improve evacuation planning, allocate resources, and design infrastructure that accounts for the full spatial footprint of storms. Their database supports:
The analysis found no statistically significant long-term change in size at landfall, However, it did find that:
Implications of the Three Studies
SCIPP says that collectively, these three studies highlight the “critical need to better understand tropical cyclone characteristics that directly affect coastal populations.”
The researchers hope to translate their scientific findings into actionable guidance for emergency management, infrastructure planning, and long-term community resilience.
The annual report also contains fascinating findings by leading academic institutions in the region on:
SCIPP’s theme is “Planning for Long-Term Change in a Short-Term World.” To learn more about their excellent work and conferences, or to sign up for their newsletters, visit SouthernClimate.org.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/28/2025
2921 Days since Hurricane Harvey
MoCo Water War Leaves Unintended Casualties
8/18/25 – The Montgomery County (MoCo) water war has produced a number of unintended casualties in the last decade. They include:
Unfortunately, those who profited from excessive groundwater withdrawals aren’t the ones paying the price.
Subsidence problems in southern Montgomery County – once thought to be solved by the San Jacinto River Authority’s (SJRA) Groundwater Reduction Plan (GRP) – have recurred. And despite settlement of a long running lawsuit on 8/14/25, there’s still plenty of hurt to go around.
How It All Started
To comply with the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District‘s (LSGCD) rules to reduce groundwater pumping in Montgomery County, the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) introduced its Groundwater Reduction Plan (GRP) in 2009. The plan addressed the need to ensure adequate water supply for the county’s rapidly growing population using surface water from Lake Conroe.
The LSGCD’s rules, adopted in 2006, mandated a 30% reduction in overall groundwater pumping. In 2010, LSGCD also capped groundwater use, starting in 2016, at 64,000 acre-feet per year.
That gave the SJRA time to sell bonds, complete a half-billion dollar surface-water-treatment plant at Lake Conroe, and build a 55-mile pipeline-distribution system.
Then, the water war erupted.
Defectors Undermine Success
When water rates went up to pay for surface water, the City of Conroe, City of Magnolia, Quadvest, and Woodlands Oaks sued to get out of their GRP contracts. That, in turn, led to:
Subsidence: Briefly Halted
Ironically, all this happened as the groundwater reduction plan started to reduce subsidence. Areas in The Woodlands that had subsided consistently for years saw subsidence virtually level off. But the success was brief.
The leveling off lasted between three and four years. Then subsidence accelerated again. The trigger this time: politics.
A movement to make the LSGCD board elected rather than appointed opened the door for privately held groundwater providers. They backed a slate of candidates that favored pumping cheaper groundwater. And the groundwater pumpers won. Soon thereafter, unrestricted groundwater pumping resumed.
The newly elected board was sworn in during November, 2018, shortly before the graph above turned down again.
Groundwater Levels Decline with Changes in Groundwater Regulations
The newly elected LSGCD board removed conservation rules from their regulatory plan, leading to a rejection of the plan by the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB). This introduced uncertainty regarding the regulatory framework for groundwater management and the GRP’s role within it.
The protracted legal battles, settled last Thursday, centered on the validity and enforceability of GRP contracts and the fees charged for surface water.
Several cities disputed the SJRA’s ability to raise rates for surface water. Conroe initially refused to pay a rate increase implemented in 2016, and Magnolia followed suit. The SJRA responded by suing the cities for breach of contract.
These legal challenges created significant financial strain for the SJRA and its other customers. Unpaid fees caused shortfalls that had to be covered by other GRP plan participants. The recent settlement has resolved the dispute between SJRA and Conroe. But legal battles may still continue with others.
Meanwhile, southern Montgomery County has experienced the steepest well declines in the entire region.
From 1977 to 2025, maximum water level decline in the Chicot-Evangeline (undifferentiated) aquifer occurred in The Woodlands where water levels fell more than 400 feet. Likewise, water levels in the Jasper aquifer declined more than 250 feet near The Woodlands during the same time period.
Every water well drilled into those aquifers that USGS monitors in Montgomery County with the exception of two experienced significant water-level declines since the LSGCD board became elected. See below.
Clearly, the trend is not sustainable.
Flooding Worsened
As subsidence worsened, so did flooding in many parts of The Woodlands, especially those near streams whose gradients changed and those who lived near down-thrust faults that created bowls in the landscape.
Water Capacity Crunch Led to Development Moratorium
The U.S. Census Bureau rated Conroe the fastest‑growing large city in America for the period from July 1, 2015, to July 1, 2016. However, within several years, Conroe experienced a water-capacity shortfall and imposed a development moratorium (Aug 29, 2024).
TCEQ later approved a temporary reduction in the required water-supply allocation per connection—from 0.60 to 0.46 gpm—so projects could restart under tighter per-lot assumptions. For a year, that pause reportedly stalled plats, permits, and site work citywide.
It even affected large commercial projects. The Conroe Courier reported that Kelsey-Seybold was considering pulling a $24 million medical facility. Construction could not move forward because of concerns about water infrastructure capability.
With the settlement announced last Friday, Conroe has ended the development moratorium for now, but projects must use the TCEQ-approved 0.46 gpm through Feb. 2029. But the City’s plan reviewers will reportedly press for conservation fixtures/phasing until new supply is online.
The Greater Houston Homebuilders Association said the moratorium had had “detrimental effects on every facet of our industry from concrete to roofers, to pools to developers and builders.”
Under the terms of last week’s settlement, SJRA will provide additional water to Conroe. Heather Ramsey of the SJRA said that, “The additional surface water should keep them from using additional groundwater to accommodate their growth.” But in the meantime…
Homes Near Fault Lines Damaged
Deregulation of aquifer groundwater withdrawal in Montgomery County by the LSGCD led to declines in area water wells.
As Conroe and surrounding areas pumped more and more groundwater, subsidence continued. That triggered geologic faults in The Woodlands, which damaged homes.
It also damaged infrastructure.
Two subsidence experts in The Woodlands gave me a tour of three fault lines. Street after street showed dips, cracks, and storm sewer damage aligned precisely with the fault lines. Some of the repairs reportedly cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Many Paid the Price
Excessive groundwater withdrawals are also tilting Lake Houston. The area near the dam is subsiding much slower than the area in the headwaters of the Lake near the Montgomery County Line.
I listed science as the last victim in the water war. At some point during this skirmish, subsidence deniers started trotting out their own studies claiming huge volumes of water from the aquifers above could be produced without adverse consequences.
The loss of groundwater storage capacity due to subsidence will also leave Montgomery County more vulnerable to future droughts. Groundwater backs up surface water supplies. And now there will be less groundwater storage volume.
Someday, this will become a cautionary case study for other areas that think of groundwater as an unlimited resource.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/19/25
2912 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
SJRA, Conroe Settle Lawsuit after Nine Years
8/15/25 – The San Jacinto River Authority and City of Conroe issued a joint press release about the settlement this morning of their nine-year legal battle over water rates. This press release just came in. I’ve added subheads to help highlight key points. Otherwise, the text between the lines is verbatim:
SJRA Directors Unanimously Approve
Conroe, Texas—Today the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) Board of Directors unanimously approved the execution of a Mutual Release and Settlement Agreement with the City of Conroe to end current litigation related to the SJRA Groundwater Reduction Plan (GRP). The City of Conroe considered and approved the Mutual Release and Settlement Agreement at a City Council meeting on Thursday.
End to Legal Squabbles is Mutually Beneficial
SJRA General Manager, Aubrey Spear, said “We appreciate the City of Conroe’s efforts in working with SJRA in reaching this settlement agreement. Putting this litigation behind us is best for all GRP participants and their rate payers. With Conroe’s payment and savings on legal fees, the wholesale water rates will go down. Ending the litigation also strengthens our partnership with Conroe to continue supplying water to its growing population.”
Conroe City Administrator, Gary Scott, said “After months of negotiations, I am pleased with an outcome that is truly beneficial to both parties. Securing additional water is critical to Conroe’s economic growth and long-term vitality. We recognize and appreciate the efforts of the San Jacinto River Authority in working with us. This agreement represents a shared commitment to the betterment of us all. This is a historic decision that sets Conroe on the path to the future.”
The agreement settles legal disputes between the parties dating back to 2016 when the City of Conroe disputed increases in wholesale water rates related to SJRA’s 2010 Groundwater Reduction Plan contract.
Conroe Agrees to Pay Full Amount
In the settlement, the City of Conroe agrees to pay the full amount that it has short-paid SJRA since 2017 to the present that it has been holding in escrow. Conroe also agrees to begin paying the current rate for treated surface water from Lake Conroe and the groundwater pumpage fee going forward.
SJRA Agrees to Provide More Surface Water and More
On the other hand, SJRA agrees to provide Conroe with additional surface water, reduce the term of Conroe’s GRP contract from 80 years to 40 years, forgive penalties and fees on past due amounts, and clarify in the contract that there is no obligation by the City of Conroe to participate in future GRP phases or expansion of the GRP water treatment plant.
Documents Not Yet Available
Agreement documents are in the process of being fully executed.
Reliance on Groundwater Has Contributed to Subsidence
This is good news for both parties. It will reduce the amount they spend on legal fees that rate- and taxpayers have funded.
However, the press release did not address how it will affect the amount of groundwater that Conroe pumps aside from saying that SJRA will provide Conroe with “additional surface water.”
Subsidence in southern Montgomery County including Conroe and the Woodlands is among the most severe in the region. SJRA’s Water Treatment Plant and the Groundwater Reduction Plan were at the heart of the lawsuit. Both were intended to reduce subsidence. And they did briefly when the plant first came online in 2015. Then the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District (LSGCD) started pumping huge amounts of groundwater, claiming there was no connection between the loss of groundwater and subsidence.
LSGCD says on their Resources Page under the subsidence tab that, “…the rate at which [their] compaction occurs is 10 times (10x) slower than the rate at which compaction occurs in Harris County.”
Regardless, a huge area is still sinking 8 to 12 millimeters per year. And most of Montgomery County is sinking at least 6 according to this subsidence map recently published by the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District.
Subsidence Has Triggered Faults
The subsidence has triggered faults in the area. That in turn has damaged homes, streets and drainage infrastructure. I spent a whole day last week taking a fault tour of the Woodlands with area residents. Below are three of dozens of pictures I took at day.
Millimeters may not sound like much. But 12 millimeters per year is half an inch per year. During the life of a 30-year mortgage, that’s 15 inches…plus a lot of home and street repairs, and a lot of foundation leveling.
Inland subsidence has also been linked to flooding. It can change the gradient of streams and rivers, so water moves more slowly and builds higher during floods.
And differential subsidence (between two areas) can reduce the height of structures above floodplains. For instance, the subsidence rate in Conroe is far higher than subsidence at the Lake Houston Dam. That means homes north of the dam have less freeboard (height above expected floods). Said another way, it’s like tilting Lake Houston toward the homes north of the dam.
SJRA has not yet responded to questions about how the settlement will affect Conroe’s groundwater pumping.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/15/25
2908 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.