5/19/25 – In public-policy discussions, doom loops are self-reinforcing negative events or policies that lead to a downward spiral. Example: High crime rates force residents to move to safer neighborhoods. Then property values decline. The police get less money to patrol. And that leads to more crime. The area spirals downward.
Negative vs. Positive Cycles
A virtuous cycle is the opposite. It is a self-reinforcing, positive, upward spiral. Lower crime, for example, attracts population which provides the funding to keep the area even safer and growing.
You can see a doom loop in flooding if you look back far enough. Tomorrow, I will give a presentation to the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force that looks back 75 years at how Houston’s growth has affected flooding.
How We Handle Growth Is Root Issue
Unfortunately, growth is not always positive from a flooding perspective. If not managed properly, it can create a doom loop that increases flooding. The presentation focuses on how we repeat the mistakes of the past instead of reversing that downward spiral.
The table below from ChatGPT shows a generalized Flooding Doom Loop and a Flood-Resilience Virtuous Cycle for Houston.
Flooding Doom Loop
Flood-Resilience Virtuous Cycle
Rapid, unzoned development in floodplains
Stronger land use and drainage regulations
Loss of natural absorption (wetlands, prairies)
Preservation/restoration of natural systems
Increased stormwater runoff
Reduced runoff and slower flow
Overloaded drainage systems and bayous
Improved drainage capacity
Recurring flood damage
Fewer flooded properties
Disinvestment and property value decline
Higher property values and stability
Underfunded flood mitigation projects
Increased public/political support
Continued risky development
Sustainable development patterns
Add More Layers of Complexity and Depth
Now superimpose rapid population growth in ever-expanding, outward, concentric circles. That adds a new layer of complexity that my presentation explores with specific examples. It shows how areas outside Beltway 8 are fighting the same battles that areas inside the Beltway fought decades ago.
Conflicting Development Standards Across Jurisdictions
I examine, for instance:
Conflicting development standards across jurisdictions
And our suburbs are some of the fastest growing smaller cities, too. For many years recently, Conroe was the fastest growing city in America. And new census data shows that Fulshear (near Katy) is now the second fastest growing city percentage wise.
As the metropolis sprawls, developers can exploit differences in regulations between cities and counties to increase their profit margins. My presentation shows several examples.
Check back tomorrow for Doom Loop Part II.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/19/25
2820 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Flooding-Doom-Loop.jpg?fit=1100%2C561&ssl=15611100adminadmin2025-05-19 15:53:272025-05-19 16:12:26Doom Loops and Virtuous Cycles in Flooding
5/18/25 – Here’s a legislative roundup that includes bills which address dredging, mining, permitting of new developments, and funding of flood mitigation. With only two weeks left in the session, it appears that several bills important to the Lake Houston Area have died in committee including a bill to fund long-term dredging.
Money allocated to fund dredging after Harvey will soon run out leaving the future of dredging in doubt.
Left on the Table
The bills that apparently died include:
HB1532 – which would have created a Lake Houston Dredging and Maintenance District.
HB1163 – which would have required sand miners in the San Jacinto watershed to develop a reclamation plan that met certain criteria and post a bond to ensure that miners executed the plan.
HB1177 – which would have created a criminal offense for diverting or impounding water in a way that damaged the property of another.
HB2068 – which would have transformed the Harris County Flood Control District with a board appointed by the governor and by allowing surrounding counties to join the District. It would have created regional flood control. But Harris County officials testified against it and it died in committee.
To check the status of any other bills or subjects that interest you, visit the Texas Legislature Online.
Still Alive
The Senate Local Government Committee will hold another hearing on Monday May 19, 2025 to consider a small number of bills that didn’t beat Friday’s deadline.
Among them, HB23 would let developers bypass government oversight during the permitting process by hiring engineers to act as compliance inspectors on their behalf. The bills authors claim it will make housing more affordable. But it has local governments concerned that they might lose oversight.
It certainly does appear to have plenty of potential for conflict of interest. “Dad, I’ve decided to let myself borrow your car tonight.”
Senator Brandon Creighton sponsored the Senate version of the bill. In his civilian job, he works for a developer.
Flood Mitigation Funding Still Up in Air
Flood mitigation funding also took it on the chin. The legislature did not directly allocate any more money to the state’s Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) which has been dwindling since 2023. The fund currently has less than a billion dollars left to address $54 billion worth of projects in the State Flood Plan. Plus regional flood groups are gearing up to add more projects to the plan.
This year, the legislature did not commit any funding exclusively to the Flood Infrastructure Fund. However, two bills are still alive that could potentially result in more funding: SB7 and HJR7.
If they somehow become law:
The FIF will be moved under the umbrella of the Texas Water Fund (TWF).
The TWF will receive $2.5B in one time funding from the economic stabilization fund.
A constitutional amendment will be put to the voters in November establishing a permanent source of funding for the TWF to the tune of $1B annually.
That $1B might be required to commit 80% to “New Water Supply” if Charles Perry has his way, but others are pushing back, preferring to give the TWDB Board the discretion to distribute as they see appropriate.
Uncertainty Abounds for Future of Flood Mitigation
The uncertainty surrounding State funding for flood mitigation is especially concerning given all the uncertainty surrounding federal funding for flood mitigation.
The uncertainty extends to the local level too. Harris County Flood Control District was supposed to make a presentation to Commissioners Court on the status of Flood Bond Funding on May 22. Commissioners requested the update in late February. However, HCFCD reportedly pleaded for more time and the presentation has been delayed.
Commissioners fear that inflation could mean that a large percentage of the projects promised with the flood bond never get done. They are grappling with a $100 million drainage funding shortfall.
5/17/25 – Contractors have finally started boring under UnionPacific Railroad (UPRR) tracks to connect Northpark drainage east and west of Loop 494. That crucial connection is a key to beginning many other parts of the Northpark expansion project.
Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority first contacted UPRR about running Northpark drainage under their tracks ten years ago. And for those keeping track, it was eight years ago that the two parties signed their first contract.
Fifth Contract is the Charm
If you’re wondering why it’s taken so long, the two parties are now working on their fifth contract. But all that is in the past. So are the special UPRR training sessions that contractors and LHRA staff had to attend. So is the years-long wait for UPRR to weld single 200-foot-long sections of track into place across the ten lanes of Northpark.
All energies are positive now and the project is moving forward.
Looking W along Northpark across Loop 494 toward US59. Location of starting point for bore circled. This and all pictures below taken on Friday, May 16, 2025.
One Pole Blocking Bore Must Move
Note, however, a CenterPoint pole is still in the way. See below.
Energized electric lines must be moved to adjacent pole on right.
CenterPoint needs to transfer the energized lines from the existing wood poles on each side of Northpark to the newly installed and adjacent fiberglass poles. Those are designed to route the electricity underground at that location – out of the way of the bridge. Once electricity is rerouted, the old pole blocking progress can be removed.
Yesterday, I received word from City Councilman Fred Flickinger’s District E office that CenterPoint and UPRR are close to signing a contract that will let CenterPoint enter UPRR’s right of way to move the pole. Good news!
A steel frame and steel plates locked together by those giant timbers in the foreground will protect the operation.
Steel, Not Concrete Pipe Needed
After completing the bore pit, contractors will run six-foot steel pipes under the tracks. The tolerance is exceedingly tight. The tracks cannot move more than one-quarter inch despite the weight and vibration of mile-long trains carrying heavy loads. Hence the steel.
Pipes that will eventually bore under tracks are being stockpiled for now on S side of Northpark.
Bore Pit Built Like Underground Fortress
From the ground, construction of the bore pit looked like this.
Steel I-beams and steel frame form perimeter of pit.Then giant steel plates were slotted between the I-beams.Looking E from over Loop 494. Steel pipe will connect to a giant junction box in the dirt area (bottom center).
Junction Boxes Will Tie Drainage Together
When this operation is complete, we will have two junction boxes on either side of the tracks.
Some time ago, a third junction box was placed underground near the Shell station on the opposite side of Loop 494. Before contractors paved the new southbound lanes on Loop 494, they already connected giant 8’x8′ reinforced concrete pipe under the paving. So now, all they have to do is connect that to the center junction box west of the tracks (foreground above).
Contingent Operations
Many subsequent operations rely on the successful completion of the bore under the tracks. They include:
Doom Loops and Virtuous Cycles in Flooding
5/19/25 – In public-policy discussions, doom loops are self-reinforcing negative events or policies that lead to a downward spiral. Example: High crime rates force residents to move to safer neighborhoods. Then property values decline. The police get less money to patrol. And that leads to more crime. The area spirals downward.
Negative vs. Positive Cycles
A virtuous cycle is the opposite. It is a self-reinforcing, positive, upward spiral. Lower crime, for example, attracts population which provides the funding to keep the area even safer and growing.
You can see a doom loop in flooding if you look back far enough. Tomorrow, I will give a presentation to the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force that looks back 75 years at how Houston’s growth has affected flooding.
How We Handle Growth Is Root Issue
Unfortunately, growth is not always positive from a flooding perspective. If not managed properly, it can create a doom loop that increases flooding. The presentation focuses on how we repeat the mistakes of the past instead of reversing that downward spiral.
The table below from ChatGPT shows a generalized Flooding Doom Loop and a Flood-Resilience Virtuous Cycle for Houston.
Add More Layers of Complexity and Depth
Now superimpose rapid population growth in ever-expanding, outward, concentric circles. That adds a new layer of complexity that my presentation explores with specific examples. It shows how areas outside Beltway 8 are fighting the same battles that areas inside the Beltway fought decades ago.
Conflicting Development Standards Across Jurisdictions
I examine, for instance:
We continue to grow. Houston was the second fastest growing large city in the country last year after New York when measured by increased headcount.
And our suburbs are some of the fastest growing smaller cities, too. For many years recently, Conroe was the fastest growing city in America. And new census data shows that Fulshear (near Katy) is now the second fastest growing city percentage wise.
As the metropolis sprawls, developers can exploit differences in regulations between cities and counties to increase their profit margins. My presentation shows several examples.
Check back tomorrow for Doom Loop Part II.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/19/25
2820 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Legislative Roundup: Dredging, Mining, Permitting, Funding
5/18/25 – Here’s a legislative roundup that includes bills which address dredging, mining, permitting of new developments, and funding of flood mitigation. With only two weeks left in the session, it appears that several bills important to the Lake Houston Area have died in committee including a bill to fund long-term dredging.
Left on the Table
The bills that apparently died include:
HB1532 – which would have created a Lake Houston Dredging and Maintenance District.
HB1163 – which would have required sand miners in the San Jacinto watershed to develop a reclamation plan that met certain criteria and post a bond to ensure that miners executed the plan.
HB1177 – which would have created a criminal offense for diverting or impounding water in a way that damaged the property of another.
HB2068 – which would have transformed the Harris County Flood Control District with a board appointed by the governor and by allowing surrounding counties to join the District. It would have created regional flood control. But Harris County officials testified against it and it died in committee.
To check the status of any other bills or subjects that interest you, visit the Texas Legislature Online.
Still Alive
The Senate Local Government Committee will hold another hearing on Monday May 19, 2025 to consider a small number of bills that didn’t beat Friday’s deadline.
Among them, HB23 would let developers bypass government oversight during the permitting process by hiring engineers to act as compliance inspectors on their behalf. The bills authors claim it will make housing more affordable. But it has local governments concerned that they might lose oversight.
It certainly does appear to have plenty of potential for conflict of interest. “Dad, I’ve decided to let myself borrow your car tonight.”
Senator Brandon Creighton sponsored the Senate version of the bill. In his civilian job, he works for a developer.
Flood Mitigation Funding Still Up in Air
Flood mitigation funding also took it on the chin. The legislature did not directly allocate any more money to the state’s Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) which has been dwindling since 2023. The fund currently has less than a billion dollars left to address $54 billion worth of projects in the State Flood Plan. Plus regional flood groups are gearing up to add more projects to the plan.
This year, the legislature did not commit any funding exclusively to the Flood Infrastructure Fund. However, two bills are still alive that could potentially result in more funding: SB7 and HJR7.
If they somehow become law:
Uncertainty Abounds for Future of Flood Mitigation
The uncertainty surrounding State funding for flood mitigation is especially concerning given all the uncertainty surrounding federal funding for flood mitigation.
The uncertainty extends to the local level too. Harris County Flood Control District was supposed to make a presentation to Commissioners Court on the status of Flood Bond Funding on May 22. Commissioners requested the update in late February. However, HCFCD reportedly pleaded for more time and the presentation has been delayed.
Commissioners fear that inflation could mean that a large percentage of the projects promised with the flood bond never get done. They are grappling with a $100 million drainage funding shortfall.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/18/25
2819 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Northpark Contractors Start Boring Under Railroad Tracks
5/17/25 – Contractors have finally started boring under UnionPacific Railroad (UPRR) tracks to connect Northpark drainage east and west of Loop 494. That crucial connection is a key to beginning many other parts of the Northpark expansion project.
Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority first contacted UPRR about running Northpark drainage under their tracks ten years ago. And for those keeping track, it was eight years ago that the two parties signed their first contract.
Fifth Contract is the Charm
If you’re wondering why it’s taken so long, the two parties are now working on their fifth contract. But all that is in the past. So are the special UPRR training sessions that contractors and LHRA staff had to attend. So is the years-long wait for UPRR to weld single 200-foot-long sections of track into place across the ten lanes of Northpark.
All energies are positive now and the project is moving forward.
One Pole Blocking Bore Must Move
Note, however, a CenterPoint pole is still in the way. See below.
CenterPoint needs to transfer the energized lines from the existing wood poles on each side of Northpark to the newly installed and adjacent fiberglass poles. Those are designed to route the electricity underground at that location – out of the way of the bridge. Once electricity is rerouted, the old pole blocking progress can be removed.
Yesterday, I received word from City Councilman Fred Flickinger’s District E office that CenterPoint and UPRR are close to signing a contract that will let CenterPoint enter UPRR’s right of way to move the pole. Good news!
Steel, Not Concrete Pipe Needed
After completing the bore pit, contractors will run six-foot steel pipes under the tracks. The tolerance is exceedingly tight. The tracks cannot move more than one-quarter inch despite the weight and vibration of mile-long trains carrying heavy loads. Hence the steel.
Bore Pit Built Like Underground Fortress
From the ground, construction of the bore pit looked like this.
Junction Boxes Will Tie Drainage Together
When this operation is complete, we will have two junction boxes on either side of the tracks.
Some time ago, a third junction box was placed underground near the Shell station on the opposite side of Loop 494. Before contractors paved the new southbound lanes on Loop 494, they already connected giant 8’x8′ reinforced concrete pipe under the paving. So now, all they have to do is connect that to the center junction box west of the tracks (foreground above).
Contingent Operations
Many subsequent operations rely on the successful completion of the bore under the tracks. They include:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/17/25
2818 Days since Hurricane Harvey