10/23/25 – Houston District E City Council Member Fred Flickinger announced this afternoon that the City will lower the level of Lake Houston one foot beginning tomorrow morning. The reason: a severe storm arriving Friday night into Saturday morning could dump 2-4 inches of rain over widespread parts of the Lake Houston Watershed. Isolated higher totals up to 6″ are possible where training of thunderstorm cells occurs.
Training refers to a line of thunderstorms that follows a similar path, so that one after another dumps rain on the same neighborhoods.
NOAA’s Severe Storm Center has issued alerts for possible street flooding this weekend for areas that receive high amounts of rain in short periods.
The San Jacinto River Authority is also monitoring rainfall forecasts for the weekend, but has not yet announced whether it will lower Lake Conroe. That lake is already a foot low due to evaporation during the drought. So it likely has enough capacity to absorb the coming rainfall.
Current Lake Level Report as of 5:30 PM 10/23/25
Lake Houston:
Lake Houston is currently at 42.12 feet (normal pool is 42.4 feet). Its gates will be opened beginning tomorrow morning to lower the lake one foot below normal pool, according to pre-release protocols.
Property owners along the lake should secure their shoreline property. Lake Houston levels can be monitored here.
As of 5:30 PM 10/23/25
Lake Conroe:
Lake Conroe is currently at 199.98 feet (normal pool is 201 feet). Lake Conroe levels can be monitored here.
Monitor Official Sources for Current Information:
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall may continue through late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
Please use verified news sources for inclement weather information. These include:
Flash flooding is possible. So, stay weather aware and avoid roadways if possible during rain events.
It only takes 6 inches of water to move a car.
HCFCD
Always turn around, don’t drown.
Monitor Travel Conditions Closely with AlertHouston.org
Stay informed of current conditions and avoid traveling near creeks and bayous.
Timely information during emergencies is important. AlertHouston delivers critical information to Houston residents regarding current conditions, expected impacts, and protective actions to keep themselves and their loved ones safe.
Register for emergency alerts through email, text message, voice call, or mobile app push notifications. Most alerts are geo-targeted; subscribers with loved ones around the city may register up to five physical addresses per contact record. Sign up today at www.alerthouston.org.
Threat Starts Friday, But Expect Heaviest Weather on Saturday
As atmospheric lift increases into Friday night and Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s Meteorologist, says that the potential exists for a complex of storms to form over West Texas Friday evening and move toward the Houston area by sunrise Saturday.
This would likely be the first round of more sustained heavy rainfall, according to Lindner. More rain will linger back to the west, so additional thunderstorms and rainfall could develop into Saturday evening.
A few of the thunderstorms on Saturday could become strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. However, they do not appear to threaten widespread areas at the moment. Lindner says wind and hail are secondary to the heavy rainfall threat at the moment.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed nearly all of the area under a “marginal” or level 1 out of 5 severe threat for Saturday.
PivotalWeather.com predicts accumulated rainfall in Harris and Montgomery Counties to reach approximately 3.5 inches with higher accumulations to our north and east. But this could change as the storm gets nearer.
Drought May Offset Potential Stream Flooding
Given recent dry conditions, much of this rainfall can be handled. In fact, it is much needed…as long as it does not fall all at once.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has placed the area under a “slight” risk or level 2 out of 4 for flash flooding on Saturday.
Lindner feels that at this time, bayous and creeks should be capable of handling even the higher predicted rainfall totals. He expects to see significant rises on area streams, but feels significant flooding is unlikely at this time.
Lindner also feels that strong southerly winds will push high tides along the coast 4-5 feet higher than normal. Building seas and higher-than-normal tides could create minor coastal flooding at high tides.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/23/25 at 5:30pm
2977 days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Severe-Weather-Outlook-Saturday-10.25.png?fit=1094%2C816&ssl=18161094adminadmin2025-10-23 17:48:402025-10-23 17:49:32City Lowering Lake Houston in Advance of Flood Threat
10/22/25 – Climate Central, an independent group of scientists and communicators who research weather trends, reported today that 14 separate billion-dollar weather disasters have occurred across the U.S. during the first six months of 2025. They caused $101.4 billion in damages.
Climate Central Now Updating Former NOAA Database
Climate Central has taken over the database of billion-dollar disasters that NOAA stopped updating earlier this year. The self-described “policy neutral” non-profit group addresses climate, sea-level rise, extreme weather, energy, and related topics.
Most Expensive 6 Months on Record
The 14 events recorded just in the first half of this year, between January and June, are well above the inflation-adjusted annual average of 9 events over the past 46 years.
According to Climate Central, the first half of 2025 was the most expensive on record, driven by unprecedented damage from the LA wildfires and damaging Spring severe weather.
The January LA wildfires were the costliest event so far this year — and the costliestwildfire on record — with damages exceeding $60 billion, nearly doubling the previous record.
Need for Data If Costs Shift to States
Climate Central is committed to keeping this critical dataset accessible, timely, and transparent, and will continue to update the analysis to monitor the risk of weather and climate-related disasters.
Adam Smith, Climate Central’s Senior Climate Impacts Scientist, said, “I’m proud to continue this work with Climate Central and to ensure that this vital information remains accessible to the public, researchers, and decision-makers.” Smith formerly headed up NOAA’s U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Program for 15 years.
While the first half of the year set records, it’s unclear how an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season while affect the final totals for the year. So far, not one Atlantic hurricane has made landfall in the mainland US this year, a first since 2005.
According to the New York Times, the annual average of billion-dollar disasters has surged from three per year during the 1980s to 19 per year during the last 10 years.
The increase in costs during that same period is not just a function of weather extremes. “As more people and businesses move into areas that are prone to floods and wildfire, more property is vulnerable to damage,” said the Times article.
The Times quoted Andrew Rumbach, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute. He studies climate effects on communities and said the database serves as a powerful signal that decision making is costing us a lot of money.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/22/25
2976 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/20251022-Q1-2-2025-Climate-Disasters-In-US.png?fit=1100%2C639&ssl=16391100adminadmin2025-10-22 18:45:432025-10-22 18:48:22Weather Disasters Cost More Than $100 Billion in First Half of 2025
October 20, 2025 – On October 16, 2025, the Fourteenth Court of Appeals ruled that the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) enjoyed governmental immunity in one set of “takings” claims arising out of Hurricane Harvey. The three-judge panel reversed a ruling by the 152nd District Court in Harris County.
The new ruling said that the SJRA acted reasonably and that the property owners failed to prove their case. The property owners had accused the SJRA of causing or worsening their flooding during Hurricane Harvey as a result of releases from Lake Conroe.
Even so, the ruling runs to 33 pages. Every paragraph represents a Tylenol moment for the plaintiffs. From discussions of applicable law to standards of proof, expert witness testimony and more.
The justices relied heavily on the gravity and immediacy of the threat posed by Hurricane Harvey (page 18) in determining that SJRA deserved immunity. Harvey was “significantly serious” and “likely to produce great harm or danger,” they said (page 20).
Key Factors in Finding
The judges believed that SJRA acted “reasonably,” a pivotal word they applied. “SJRA created a Gate Policy that was intended to minimize threats to life and property and to comply with applicable rules and legal authority. Adhering to that policy during a storm emergency is objectively reasonable,” they added on Page 21.
Further they found (page 25) that the downstream property owners failed to prove that “the threat to life or property posed by Harvey [did] not qualify as grave and immediate.”
And they agreed with the SJRA (page 29) that releasing the stormwater from Lake Conroe was “necessary,” even though:
Some buffer existed before SJRA would have flooded upstream residents
The dam could have withstood higher levels.
In the end, they said (page 31), “The decision of whether, when, and how much, water to release was discretionary and the Property Owners have not presented evidence that the amount released was so extreme as to be objectively unreasonable.”
Conclusion: Reversal With Prejudice
Thus, they concluded, “We reverse the trial court’s order and render judgment dismissing with prejudice [emphasis added] the Property Owners’ statutory takings claims.”
A dismissal “with prejudice” means the case is over. Plaintiffs cannot refile the claim ever again. This final judgment permanently ends the lawsuit and prevents the same issues from relitigation in the future. Except through a successful appeal to a higher court.
It’s unclear how this case differs from several other similar takings cases arising out of Harvey. It’s also unclear at this point whether the plaintiffs will appeal the case.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/20/2025
2974 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/SJRA-Lawsuit-Appeal-Win-e1761012101319.png?fit=1199%2C623&ssl=16231199adminadmin2025-10-20 21:24:082025-10-25 13:36:43SJRA Wins Appeal Against Downstream Homeowners
City Lowering Lake Houston in Advance of Flood Threat
10/23/25 – Houston District E City Council Member Fred Flickinger announced this afternoon that the City will lower the level of Lake Houston one foot beginning tomorrow morning. The reason: a severe storm arriving Friday night into Saturday morning could dump 2-4 inches of rain over widespread parts of the Lake Houston Watershed. Isolated higher totals up to 6″ are possible where training of thunderstorm cells occurs.
Training refers to a line of thunderstorms that follows a similar path, so that one after another dumps rain on the same neighborhoods.
NOAA’s Severe Storm Center has issued alerts for possible street flooding this weekend for areas that receive high amounts of rain in short periods.
The San Jacinto River Authority is also monitoring rainfall forecasts for the weekend, but has not yet announced whether it will lower Lake Conroe. That lake is already a foot low due to evaporation during the drought. So it likely has enough capacity to absorb the coming rainfall.
Current Lake Level Report as of 5:30 PM 10/23/25
Lake Houston:
Lake Houston is currently at 42.12 feet (normal pool is 42.4 feet). Its gates will be opened beginning tomorrow morning to lower the lake one foot below normal pool, according to pre-release protocols.
Property owners along the lake should secure their shoreline property. Lake Houston levels can be monitored here.
Lake Conroe:
Lake Conroe is currently at 199.98 feet (normal pool is 201 feet). Lake Conroe levels can be monitored here.
Monitor Official Sources for Current Information:
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall may continue through late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
Please use verified news sources for inclement weather information. These include:
Flash flooding is possible. So, stay weather aware and avoid roadways if possible during rain events.
Always turn around, don’t drown.
Monitor Travel Conditions Closely with AlertHouston.org
Stay informed of current conditions and avoid traveling near creeks and bayous.
Timely information during emergencies is important. AlertHouston delivers critical information to Houston residents regarding current conditions, expected impacts, and protective actions to keep themselves and their loved ones safe.
Register for emergency alerts through email, text message, voice call, or mobile app push notifications. Most alerts are geo-targeted; subscribers with loved ones around the city may register up to five physical addresses per contact record. Sign up today at www.alerthouston.org.
Threat Starts Friday, But Expect Heaviest Weather on Saturday
As atmospheric lift increases into Friday night and Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s Meteorologist, says that the potential exists for a complex of storms to form over West Texas Friday evening and move toward the Houston area by sunrise Saturday.
This would likely be the first round of more sustained heavy rainfall, according to Lindner. More rain will linger back to the west, so additional thunderstorms and rainfall could develop into Saturday evening.
A few of the thunderstorms on Saturday could become strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. However, they do not appear to threaten widespread areas at the moment. Lindner says wind and hail are secondary to the heavy rainfall threat at the moment.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed nearly all of the area under a “marginal” or level 1 out of 5 severe threat for Saturday.
PivotalWeather.com predicts accumulated rainfall in Harris and Montgomery Counties to reach approximately 3.5 inches with higher accumulations to our north and east. But this could change as the storm gets nearer.
Drought May Offset Potential Stream Flooding
Given recent dry conditions, much of this rainfall can be handled. In fact, it is much needed…as long as it does not fall all at once.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has placed the area under a “slight” risk or level 2 out of 4 for flash flooding on Saturday.
Lindner feels that at this time, bayous and creeks should be capable of handling even the higher predicted rainfall totals. He expects to see significant rises on area streams, but feels significant flooding is unlikely at this time.
Lindner also feels that strong southerly winds will push high tides along the coast 4-5 feet higher than normal. Building seas and higher-than-normal tides could create minor coastal flooding at high tides.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/23/25 at 5:30pm
2977 days since Hurricane Harvey
Weather Disasters Cost More Than $100 Billion in First Half of 2025
10/22/25 – Climate Central, an independent group of scientists and communicators who research weather trends, reported today that 14 separate billion-dollar weather disasters have occurred across the U.S. during the first six months of 2025. They caused $101.4 billion in damages.
Climate Central Now Updating Former NOAA Database
Climate Central has taken over the database of billion-dollar disasters that NOAA stopped updating earlier this year. The self-described “policy neutral” non-profit group addresses climate, sea-level rise, extreme weather, energy, and related topics.
Most Expensive 6 Months on Record
The 14 events recorded just in the first half of this year, between January and June, are well above the inflation-adjusted annual average of 9 events over the past 46 years.
According to Climate Central, the first half of 2025 was the most expensive on record, driven by unprecedented damage from the LA wildfires and damaging Spring severe weather.
The January LA wildfires were the costliest event so far this year — and the costliest wildfire on record — with damages exceeding $60 billion, nearly doubling the previous record.
Need for Data If Costs Shift to States
Climate Central is committed to keeping this critical dataset accessible, timely, and transparent, and will continue to update the analysis to monitor the risk of weather and climate-related disasters.
Adam Smith, Climate Central’s Senior Climate Impacts Scientist, said, “I’m proud to continue this work with Climate Central and to ensure that this vital information remains accessible to the public, researchers, and decision-makers.” Smith formerly headed up NOAA’s U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Program for 15 years.
The change from public to private comes as President Trump has said he wants to eventually shift the burden of disaster relief and recovery from the federal government onto states.
The dataset is available here: https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters.
Causes Beyond Climate
While the first half of the year set records, it’s unclear how an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season while affect the final totals for the year. So far, not one Atlantic hurricane has made landfall in the mainland US this year, a first since 2005.
According to the New York Times, the annual average of billion-dollar disasters has surged from three per year during the 1980s to 19 per year during the last 10 years.
The increase in costs during that same period is not just a function of weather extremes. “As more people and businesses move into areas that are prone to floods and wildfire, more property is vulnerable to damage,” said the Times article.
The Times quoted Andrew Rumbach, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute. He studies climate effects on communities and said the database serves as a powerful signal that decision making is costing us a lot of money.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/22/25
2976 Days since Hurricane Harvey
SJRA Wins Appeal Against Downstream Homeowners
October 20, 2025 – On October 16, 2025, the Fourteenth Court of Appeals ruled that the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) enjoyed governmental immunity in one set of “takings” claims arising out of Hurricane Harvey. The three-judge panel reversed a ruling by the 152nd District Court in Harris County.
The new ruling said that the SJRA acted reasonably and that the property owners failed to prove their case. The property owners had accused the SJRA of causing or worsening their flooding during Hurricane Harvey as a result of releases from Lake Conroe.
Case Specifics
The case in question – SJRA v. Thomas E. and Beth F. Ross, Et Al. included 295 appellees.
Even so, the ruling runs to 33 pages. Every paragraph represents a Tylenol moment for the plaintiffs. From discussions of applicable law to standards of proof, expert witness testimony and more.
The justices relied heavily on the gravity and immediacy of the threat posed by Hurricane Harvey (page 18) in determining that SJRA deserved immunity. Harvey was “significantly serious” and “likely to produce great harm or danger,” they said (page 20).
Key Factors in Finding
The judges believed that SJRA acted “reasonably,” a pivotal word they applied. “SJRA created a Gate Policy that was intended to minimize threats to life and property and to comply with applicable rules and legal authority. Adhering to that policy during a storm emergency is objectively reasonable,” they added on Page 21.
Further they found (page 25) that the downstream property owners failed to prove that “the threat to life or property posed by Harvey [did] not qualify as grave and immediate.”
And they agreed with the SJRA (page 29) that releasing the stormwater from Lake Conroe was “necessary,” even though:
In the end, they said (page 31), “The decision of whether, when, and how much, water to release was discretionary and the Property Owners have not presented evidence that the amount released was so extreme as to be objectively unreasonable.”
Conclusion: Reversal With Prejudice
Thus, they concluded, “We reverse the trial court’s order and render judgment dismissing with prejudice [emphasis added] the Property Owners’ statutory takings claims.”
A dismissal “with prejudice” means the case is over. Plaintiffs cannot refile the claim ever again. This final judgment permanently ends the lawsuit and prevents the same issues from relitigation in the future. Except through a successful appeal to a higher court.
It’s unclear how this case differs from several other similar takings cases arising out of Harvey. It’s also unclear at this point whether the plaintiffs will appeal the case.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/20/2025
2974 Days since Hurricane Harvey