By Diane Cooper, Kingwood resident with 20+ years’ experience in weather and river forecasting for the National Weather Service
Colorado State University (CSU) released its initial 2018 Hurricane Outlook on April 5. It indicates an Above Normal Hurricane Season.
They predict:
14 named storms
7 hurricanes
3 major hurricanes
The average number of tropical storms per year from 1981-2010:
12 named storms
6 hurricanes
3 major hurricanes
Outlooks: Between Historical Averages and Near-Term Forecasts
Note: CSU outlooks are not near-term forecasts. Neither are they historical averages; that’s climate. Outlooks describe the probability of how any one season will likely vary from the average. To do that, scientists track numerous oscillations in the earth’s atmosphere and oceans. Historically, the high and low points of these oscillations have correlated highly with the presence or absence of hurricane formation. (For details about the Colorado State University Outlook, see their technical paper.
Key Factors Considered in This Hurricane Outlook
CSU indicates that Pacific and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were key factors in formulating their early 2018 outlook.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast the “ENSO phase.” (ENSO refers to El Niño/Southern Oscillation, which has three phases: El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña.)
Both groups predict that the current weak La Niña will transition to an ENSO-neutral phase during this spring or early summer. However, they do not anticipate a significant El Niño for this summer or fall. (Note: ENSO models tend to be more accurate from June to December than from February to May. So, a March outlook contains more uncertainty.) For more information about the ENSO forecasts, see the International Research Institute (IRI) ENSO Forecast.
Neutral Conditions in Pacific Favor Hurricane Development in Atlantic
El Niño conditions in the Pacific (above-average SSTs that are tracked over a 3-month period) typically increase wind shear in the Caribbean and Atlantic. That reduces the chances of hurricanes fully organizing and strengthening, however we can still experience tropical systems and hurricanes with El Niño conditions.
Neutral ENSO conditions, on the other hand, allow for normal wind shear patterns over the areas in the Atlantic Ocean where tropical development tends to occur. Decreased wind shear provides a more favorable environment for Atlantic hurricane development.
Atlantic Sea Temps Now Vary, Causing Uncertainty
Currently, the western tropical Atlantic Ocean is very warm, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are cool. Thus, forecasters have difficulty predicting how warm waters will become during the peak Atlantic hurricane season. Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 through November 30th, but the peak is mid-August through mid-October.
The main area where forecasters study Atlantic SSTs is called the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). The MDR includes the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea between 9.5°N and 21.5°N latitude.
Sustained wind speeds determine the classification of a tropical system.
Tropical Depression – 38 mph or less
Tropical Storm – 39 mph to 73 mph.
Hurricane – 74 mph and higher.
Major Hurricane – 111 mph and higher. These are Category 3, 4 or 5 storms that have significant impacts, especially if the center of the storm comes ashore.
Serious damage can occur in any storm. However, a slightly above normal outlook increases the odds that a tropical system will reach the U.S. coast. That’s simply because we expect to have more storms. More storms increase chances that one will come ashore near us.
Be Prepared, Not Sorry
Despite the outlook for an above normal season, the U.S. and Texas may see no direct hit from a tropical system. Outlooks say nothing about where topical systems will make landfall.
However, multiple storms could strike the Texas coast, as they did in 2008, when the CSU team predicted a “well above average” hurricane season. Texas took four direct hits between July 23 and September 8. The eye of Hurricane Ike passed right over Kingwood, knocking out power for approximately two weeks. Ike was one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to hit Texas and one of the deadliest. It caused $19.3 billion in damages and killed 84 people.
Typical Hurricane Ike wind damage in Kingwood, TX, in 2008. Ike moved quickly and caused more wind than water damage in Kingwood. The opposite was true near the coast where a 22-foot storm surge wiped out thousands of homes on the Bolivar Peninsula.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st, so start preparing now. In my next post, I’ll talk about how to prepare for a hurricane.
In the meantime, also remember that it does not take a tropical system to produce significant rainfall in southeast Texas. The 2015 Memorial Day flood and the 2016 Tax Day Floods are recent examples of 500+ year floods not connected to a tropical system. We should always be prepared for potential flooding in this area.
Posted April 10, 2018, 224 Days after Hurricane Harvey
00adminadmin2018-04-10 08:06:282018-04-10 08:13:42Forecasters Predict a Slightly Above Average Hurricane Season for 2018
Please mark your calendars. Attend the next meeting of the Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative from 6:30 to 8:00 p.m., April 17 at the Kingwood Community Center.
Featured Speaker: SJRA Board Member Kaaren Cambio
Kaaren Cambio, one of Kingwood’s two new representatives on the San Jacinto River Authority Board, will update residents on the SJRA’s new role in flood prevention. Additionally, she will update us on many significant flood prevention developments since the group’s last meeting.
About the Lake Houston Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative
The Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative consists of local residents dedicated to preventing future flooding in the Lake Houston Area. The Group aims to provide a voice for the concerns of residents. It also seeks to identify flood risks and their solutions, and to work closely with local, state and federal officials in addressing them.
All residents – flooded or not – are welcome to attend. The issues we seek to address affect the safety and economic vitality of the entire community.
Key goals of the Group include:
Installing additional flood gates at Lake Houston to increase release capacity
Dredging the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River and Lake Houston
Controlling sand mining activities on both forks of the San Jacinto River to reduce sand build up
Ensuring any bond proposed by the Harris County Commissioners includes dredging of the West and East forks of the San Jacinto River
Changing priorities and procedures of the San Jacinto River Authority to protect residents downstream from Lake Conroe
Supporting our elected representatives by maintaining awareness and involvement.
Join the Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative
To join the group’s distribution list, please email Bill Fowler at txwil43@yahoo.com. Also, please feel free to email questions or comments directly to Bill or through this website.
On a final note, this website will be a repository for information related to the group’s efforts to prevent future flooding. Please bookmark the site and visit it regularly to get the most up-to-date news on flood prevention developments.
Posted April 7, 2018, 221 Days since Hurricane Harvey.
00adminadmin2018-04-07 15:44:422018-04-07 15:58:46Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative Announces Cambio to Speak At Next Meeting
WhataBurger in the new HEB shopping center during flooding from Hurricane Harvey. Photo: Courtesy of John Knoerzer.
The Greater Houston Flood Mitigation Consortium issued a region-wide 64-page report on April 5, 2018. It begins with a discussion of the pros and cons of various flood mitigation strategies in general. Then it looks at strategies that apply to each watershed within the region and the equity of funding for each watershed.
The San Jacinto watershed, they say, contains 3% of the region’s population, gets 0% of the budget, and had 14% of the region’s damages.
In-depth engineering studies and science-based hydrologic and ecological assessments to determine the cost, benefits and risks associated with the following proposed flood mitigation strategies:
Making structural alterations to Lake Houston dam and spillway
Dredging along the San Jacinto River and in Lake Houston
Construction of a Montgomery County reservoir system / fourth reservoir
Stricter regulation of sand mining operations, acquisition and complete restoration of land associated with past sand mining operations. Enact stricter state regulations and enforce penalties to shut down illegal mine operations that do not have required permits; strict enforcement of existing rules; require full restoration and/or create an in lieu fee program to finance restoration of closed and abandoned sand mining sites.
Stricter development regulations for the watersheds in the San Jacinto River Basin
Outreach to stakeholders and communities in the San Jacinto River Basin to increase awareness and facilitate greater transparency in reservoir operation and management and development of flood mitigation strategies.
Increased deployment of green infrastructure strategies including conservation easements, land acquisition and LID as population growth and development continues at a rapid pace. Creation of a regional LID guidelines template for use by local and county governments and LID performance criteria needed.
Create a San Jacinto River Community Advisory Council that meets regularly with public operators and functions similarly to community advisory councils in Houston Ship Channel industrial communities.
Stricter floodplain development regulations extending beyond the 500-year floodplain based on Atlas14 rainfall estimates
The entire report is a good read. It’s well designed and filled with helpful illustrations. People seriously interested in flood mitigation should download and read the whole survey. It’s extremely thoughtful and balanced.
Forecasters Predict a Slightly Above Average Hurricane Season for 2018
By Diane Cooper, Kingwood resident with 20+ years’ experience in weather and river forecasting for the National Weather Service
Colorado State University (CSU) released its initial 2018 Hurricane Outlook on April 5. It indicates an Above Normal Hurricane Season.
They predict:
The average number of tropical storms per year from 1981-2010:
Outlooks: Between Historical Averages and Near-Term Forecasts
Note: CSU outlooks are not near-term forecasts. Neither are they historical averages; that’s climate. Outlooks describe the probability of how any one season will likely vary from the average. To do that, scientists track numerous oscillations in the earth’s atmosphere and oceans. Historically, the high and low points of these oscillations have correlated highly with the presence or absence of hurricane formation. (For details about the Colorado State University Outlook, see their technical paper.
Key Factors Considered in This Hurricane Outlook
CSU indicates that Pacific and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were key factors in formulating their early 2018 outlook.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast the “ENSO phase.” (ENSO refers to El Niño/Southern Oscillation, which has three phases: El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña.)
Both groups predict that the current weak La Niña will transition to an ENSO-neutral phase during this spring or early summer. However, they do not anticipate a significant El Niño for this summer or fall. (Note: ENSO models tend to be more accurate from June to December than from February to May. So, a March outlook contains more uncertainty.) For more information about the ENSO forecasts, see the International Research Institute (IRI) ENSO Forecast.
Neutral Conditions in Pacific Favor Hurricane Development in Atlantic
El Niño conditions in the Pacific (above-average SSTs that are tracked over a 3-month period) typically increase wind shear in the Caribbean and Atlantic. That reduces the chances of hurricanes fully organizing and strengthening, however we can still experience tropical systems and hurricanes with El Niño conditions.
Neutral ENSO conditions, on the other hand, allow for normal wind shear patterns over the areas in the Atlantic Ocean where tropical development tends to occur. Decreased wind shear provides a more favorable environment for Atlantic hurricane development.
Atlantic Sea Temps Now Vary, Causing Uncertainty
Currently, the western tropical Atlantic Ocean is very warm, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are cool. Thus, forecasters have difficulty predicting how warm waters will become during the peak Atlantic hurricane season. Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 through November 30th, but the peak is mid-August through mid-October.
The main area where forecasters study Atlantic SSTs is called the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR). The MDR includes the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea between 9.5°N and 21.5°N latitude.
For more information about factors influencing hurricane outlooks and ENSO states, see What Influences the Long-Range Weather Outlooks.
Difference Between Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
Sustained wind speeds determine the classification of a tropical system.
This video shows types of damage to expect as wind speeds increase.
Why Hurricane Outlooks Matter
Serious damage can occur in any storm. However, a slightly above normal outlook increases the odds that a tropical system will reach the U.S. coast. That’s simply because we expect to have more storms. More storms increase chances that one will come ashore near us.
Be Prepared, Not Sorry
Despite the outlook for an above normal season, the U.S. and Texas may see no direct hit from a tropical system. Outlooks say nothing about where topical systems will make landfall.
However, multiple storms could strike the Texas coast, as they did in 2008, when the CSU team predicted a “well above average” hurricane season. Texas took four direct hits between July 23 and September 8. The eye of Hurricane Ike passed right over Kingwood, knocking out power for approximately two weeks. Ike was one of the most destructive hurricanes ever to hit Texas and one of the deadliest. It caused $19.3 billion in damages and killed 84 people.
Typical Hurricane Ike wind damage in Kingwood, TX, in 2008. Ike moved quickly and caused more wind than water damage in Kingwood. The opposite was true near the coast where a 22-foot storm surge wiped out thousands of homes on the Bolivar Peninsula.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st, so start preparing now. In my next post, I’ll talk about how to prepare for a hurricane.
In the meantime, also remember that it does not take a tropical system to produce significant rainfall in southeast Texas. The 2015 Memorial Day flood and the 2016 Tax Day Floods are recent examples of 500+ year floods not connected to a tropical system. We should always be prepared for potential flooding in this area.
Posted April 10, 2018, 224 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative Announces Cambio to Speak At Next Meeting
Please mark your calendars. Attend the next meeting of the Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative from 6:30 to 8:00 p.m., April 17 at the Kingwood Community Center.
Featured Speaker: SJRA Board Member Kaaren Cambio
Kaaren Cambio, one of Kingwood’s two new representatives on the San Jacinto River Authority Board, will update residents on the SJRA’s new role in flood prevention. Additionally, she will update us on many significant flood prevention developments since the group’s last meeting.
About the Lake Houston Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative
The Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative consists of local residents dedicated to preventing future flooding in the Lake Houston Area. The Group aims to provide a voice for the concerns of residents. It also seeks to identify flood risks and their solutions, and to work closely with local, state and federal officials in addressing them.
All residents – flooded or not – are welcome to attend. The issues we seek to address affect the safety and economic vitality of the entire community.
Key goals of the Group include:
Join the Lake Houston Area Grassroots Flood Prevention Initiative
To join the group’s distribution list, please email Bill Fowler at txwil43@yahoo.com. Also, please feel free to email questions or comments directly to Bill or through this website.
On a final note, this website will be a repository for information related to the group’s efforts to prevent future flooding. Please bookmark the site and visit it regularly to get the most up-to-date news on flood prevention developments.
Posted April 7, 2018, 221 Days since Hurricane Harvey.
Greater Houston Flood Mitigation Consortium Issues Recommendations for San Jacinto Watershed
WhataBurger in the new HEB shopping center during flooding from Hurricane Harvey. Photo: Courtesy of John Knoerzer.
The Greater Houston Flood Mitigation Consortium issued a region-wide 64-page report on April 5, 2018. It begins with a discussion of the pros and cons of various flood mitigation strategies in general. Then it looks at strategies that apply to each watershed within the region and the equity of funding for each watershed.
The Consortium’s discussion of recommendations for the San Jacinto watershed begins on page 48 and continues on page 49. Because the complete report is more than a 130 megabyte download, I quote their recommendations for us below:
The entire report is a good read. It’s well designed and filled with helpful illustrations. People seriously interested in flood mitigation should download and read the whole survey. It’s extremely thoughtful and balanced.
Here is the Houston Chronicle’s take on the Greater Houston Flood Mitigation Consortium’s report.
Posted April 6, 2018, 219 Days After Hurricane Harvey.