The chances of Invest 92L becoming a named tropical storm have increased to 50% in the two-day forecast and 80% in the five-day forecast, according to the National Hurricane Center. That’s the bad news. The good news for the Houston area: most models now predict the storm will make landfall in Louisiana.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist caps predicted rainfall totals at 1 to 3 inches for now, but with the understanding that totals could go significantly higher.
Invest in this context means “area of investigation.” A weather system receives this designation when forecasters start to track something serious more closely.
Uncertainty Remains High at This Time
Because the center of this storm is still over land at the moment, it’s hard to predict. Models diverge widely. Those that take the storm further south into the Gulf result in stronger winds and higher rainfall totals because the storm will remain over water longer.
However, some models predict the storm will remain closer to shore as it tracks westward through the Gulf. Those models suggest lower winds and less rainfall. The current radius of circulation of the storm is 150 nautical miles. (One nautical mile = 1.15078 miles.)
Net: forecasts are all over the map at the moment. Uncertainty remains high.
Suggested Actions
Your best bet is to:
Monitor forecasts twice a day
Check and stock hurricane kits and have plans ready to be enacted this week
Be ready to enact plans by the middle to end of this week
Follow trusted weather sources for information (National Hurricane Center, Houston/Galveston National Weather Service, West Gulf River Forecast Center and local government) for any recommendations
Graphical Predictions
From Mikes Weather Pageas of Monday evening.Numbers on each track indicate hours from 6 UTC, Tuesday morning.If the red model is correct, the storm would hit the Texas/Louisiana border by 6am Saturday morning.
The National Hurricane Center and Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner now predict that a tropical cyclone will likely develop in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
5-day outlook shows low pressure system tracking westward over warm Gulf waters.
Models Now Predict Westward Development
Overnight, the threat increased westward along the Louisiana and Texas coasts.
The National Weather Service expects a trough of low pressure located over central Georgia to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. There, it should form a broader area of low pressure in a couple of days. A tropical depression will likely form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast.
Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. Formation chance in the next two days remains low at 10 percent, but increases to 80 percent in the 5-day outlook.
Likely Path
Upper air conditions appear favorable for a tropical system to form and then intensify over much of the US Gulf coast and northern Gulf. Models now predict that any Gulf system would tend to track more westward.
Intensity
“A tropical storm is likely and a hurricane is not out of the question,” says Lindner. “If forecast models continue to show the westward motion and potential threat to the northwest Gulf, significant forecast changes will be required over the next 24-48 hours.”
What to Do Now
Closely monitor the progress of this system.
Check hurricane preparation kits and plans.
Be ready to enact those plans later this week.
Monitor weather forecasts closely.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/8/2019
678 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/image001.jpg?fit=624%2C461&ssl=1461624adminadmin2019-07-08 07:43:192019-07-08 07:47:29Tropical Cyclone Threat Increases Later This Week
The equity flap continues. In its June 25th meeting, Harris County Commissioners Court voted 3-2 to take a portion of METRO fundingAWAY from Harris County Precincts 3 and 4. This vote impacts Precinct 4 constituents by $3,069,709 in road construction funds this year alone.
This attack was just a beginning. Commissioners Ellis and Garcia stated in a joint press conference that they seek to also go after portions of Precinct 3’s and 4’s Mobility Funds…based on…you guessed it…equity. Watch the video above all the way to the end. An estimated $6 million per year is at stake in Precinct 4.
Basis for Equity
The current formula for distribution of METRO and mobility funds accounts for the number of road miles each precinct must maintain.
Compared to precinct 4, Precinct 1 also has 38% of the lane miles, 42% of the asphalt roads, one third of the unincorporated land mass, and one fourth of the housing starts.
I don’t dispute the existence of “historically disadvantaged” ethnic groups. However, I do question why road funds should be distributed by race. It seems other factors such as need, area covered, growth rate, or population served relate more directly.
Highest Percentage of Unincorporated Population in Precinct 4
Historically speaking, the county’s mission is to provide services to unincorporated areas.
So let’s start this discussion by looking at the percentage of county residents within each precinct who live in unincorporated vs. incorporated areas, such as the City of Houston. Here we see that Precinct 4 must support virtually triple the the number of unincorporated residents that Precinct 1 supports. Residents who live in unincorporated areas have support other than the county to help meet their needs.
Precinct 4 must support virtually triple the the number of unincorporated residents that Precinct 1 supports.
Highest Percentage of Road Miles in Precinct 4
Another way to look at need is by the number of road miles that each precinct must maintain. Here we can see that Precinct 4 has more lane miles, thoroughfare miles, and open-ditch asphalt roads to support than Precinct 1 by wide margins.
Highest Percentage of Growth in Precinct 4
Growth rates also factor into need in a very direct way. Here again, we can see that Precinct 4 is growing faster than Precinct 1 by many measures.
Change in “total population” percentage (incorporated + unincorporated)
Change in unincorporated population percentage
New housing and apartment starts
Residents inside the City receive county funds, too. Precincts receive them based on a weighted formula.
Precinct 4 Also Has Larger Area to Cover than Precinct 1
From the table above, we can see that Precinct 4 also has about 6.51% more square miles to service than Precinct 1.
What Funds Go For
Precinct 4 maintains over 2,600 road miles and 327 bridges in a 72% unincorporated area.
Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle said, “These Mobility Funds maintain and construct roads that keep traffic moving. They also provide roadway access for a prompt response for law enforcement, fire and emergency medical services that will ensure the continued safety of all residents.”
The ditches that parallel those roads also play a huge role in carrying water away from neighborhoods, thus reducing the risk of flooding.
Subversion of Language
The inclusion of equity in the flood bond language seems to have opened a Pandora’s box. When I listen to Commissioner Ellis and when I look at hard data, I get the feeling that the meaning of “equity” is being distorted as part of a crass money grab. This isn’t equity. It’s Commissioner Ellis seeking reparations for misdeeds of generations past.
To me, equity in this context means a fair, just, impartial, or balanced distribution of funds.
Equity should be based on objective measures, such as area served, population served, or miles that must be maintained. Those should be debated openly.
The way Commissioner Ellis uses the word, however, the outcome becomes the opposite of equity. Money is not distributed based on per capita, per road mile, or per square mile. It’s based on racial preference and results in an inequitable distribution of funds based on other objective measures.
It’s hard to reason with someone flaming about racial injustice 200 years ago. And Mr. Ellis, like most demagogues, knows that. He also exploits it. I just hope he doesn’t kill growth in Harris County while he’s doing it. Because that’s where he’s headed…including (insiders say) redirecting money from the flood bond.
Voice your opinion at the next Commissioners Court meeting on Tuesday, July 9
Commissioners Court meetings are open to the public and begin at 10:00 a.m. at 1001 Preston Street, Suite 934, Houston, Texas 77002. However, if you wish to speak, you must complete the online appearance request form found at:
It is now very typical for Commissioners Court to go beyond 6 hours.
Those who do not state an agenda item when they sign up are usually forced to wait until the end of the session. However, you can insert the agenda item in the “Subject Matter” box when you sign up. This should increase the probability of you speaking earlier.
Agenda item 19.e.1.b Mobility Funding includes this topic You can also put any additional description that you want in the subject description box.
U. S. Mail: The Honorable Judge Lina Hidalgo 1001 Preston, Suite 911 Houston, TX 77002
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/7/2019
677 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Lane-Miles.jpg?fit=900%2C1350&ssl=11350900adminadmin2019-07-07 20:42:482019-07-08 07:08:23Harris County Precinct 4 METRO and Mobility Funding Also Under “Equity” Attack in Commissioners Court
Tuesday AM Invest 92L Update: Chances of Tropical Formation Keep Increasing
The chances of Invest 92L becoming a named tropical storm have increased to 50% in the two-day forecast and 80% in the five-day forecast, according to the National Hurricane Center. That’s the bad news. The good news for the Houston area: most models now predict the storm will make landfall in Louisiana.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist caps predicted rainfall totals at 1 to 3 inches for now, but with the understanding that totals could go significantly higher.
Invest in this context means “area of investigation.” A weather system receives this designation when forecasters start to track something serious more closely.
Uncertainty Remains High at This Time
Because the center of this storm is still over land at the moment, it’s hard to predict. Models diverge widely. Those that take the storm further south into the Gulf result in stronger winds and higher rainfall totals because the storm will remain over water longer.
However, some models predict the storm will remain closer to shore as it tracks westward through the Gulf. Those models suggest lower winds and less rainfall. The current radius of circulation of the storm is 150 nautical miles. (One nautical mile = 1.15078 miles.)
Net: forecasts are all over the map at the moment. Uncertainty remains high.
Suggested Actions
Your best bet is to:
Graphical Predictions
Where to Find Most Current Information 24/7
Official:
National Hurricane Center
NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration)
National Weather Service
Harris County Flood Warning System
National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
USGS Water on the Go App
San Jacinto River Authority
Coastal Water Authority
Other:
Mikes Weather Page
Weather Nerds
Good luck!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/9/2019
679 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tropical Cyclone Threat Increases Later This Week
The National Hurricane Center and Harris County meteorologist Jeff Lindner now predict that a tropical cyclone will likely develop in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Models Now Predict Westward Development
Overnight, the threat increased westward along the Louisiana and Texas coasts.
The National Weather Service expects a trough of low pressure located over central Georgia to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. There, it should form a broader area of low pressure in a couple of days. A tropical depression will likely form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast.
Likely Path
Upper air conditions appear favorable for a tropical system to form and then intensify over much of the US Gulf coast and northern Gulf. Models now predict that any Gulf system would tend to track more westward.
Intensity
“A tropical storm is likely and a hurricane is not out of the question,” says Lindner. “If forecast models continue to show the westward motion and potential threat to the northwest Gulf, significant forecast changes will be required over the next 24-48 hours.”
What to Do Now
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/8/2019
678 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Harris County Precinct 4 METRO and Mobility Funding Also Under “Equity” Attack in Commissioners Court
The equity flap continues. In its June 25th meeting, Harris County Commissioners Court voted 3-2 to take a portion of METRO funding AWAY from Harris County Precincts 3 and 4. This vote impacts Precinct 4 constituents by $3,069,709 in road construction funds this year alone.
Basis for Equity
The current formula for distribution of METRO and mobility funds accounts for the number of road miles each precinct must maintain.
However, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis, once again, is trying to redistribute funds based on “equity,” which he defines as more for people who are “historically disadvantaged.” Specifically, he often refers to slavery when he talks about equity. Mr. Ellis represents a precinct that is roughly 39 percent African American, 37 percent Latino, 18 percent Anglo, 5 percent Asian and 1 percent other.
Compared to precinct 4, Precinct 1 also has 38% of the lane miles, 42% of the asphalt roads, one third of the unincorporated land mass, and one fourth of the housing starts.
Highest Percentage of Unincorporated Population in Precinct 4
Historically speaking, the county’s mission is to provide services to unincorporated areas.
So let’s start this discussion by looking at the percentage of county residents within each precinct who live in unincorporated vs. incorporated areas, such as the City of Houston. Here we see that Precinct 4 must support virtually triple the the number of unincorporated residents that Precinct 1 supports. Residents who live in unincorporated areas have support other than the county to help meet their needs.
Highest Percentage of Road Miles in Precinct 4
Another way to look at need is by the number of road miles that each precinct must maintain. Here we can see that Precinct 4 has more lane miles, thoroughfare miles, and open-ditch asphalt roads to support than Precinct 1 by wide margins.
Highest Percentage of Growth in Precinct 4
Growth rates also factor into need in a very direct way. Here again, we can see that Precinct 4 is growing faster than Precinct 1 by many measures.
Precinct 4 Also Has Larger Area to Cover than Precinct 1
From the table above, we can see that Precinct 4 also has about 6.51% more square miles to service than Precinct 1.
What Funds Go For
Precinct 4 maintains over 2,600 road miles and 327 bridges in a 72% unincorporated area.
Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle said, “These Mobility Funds maintain and construct roads that keep traffic moving. They also provide roadway access for a prompt response for law enforcement, fire and emergency medical services that will ensure the continued safety of all residents.”
Subversion of Language
The inclusion of equity in the flood bond language seems to have opened a Pandora’s box. When I listen to Commissioner Ellis and when I look at hard data, I get the feeling that the meaning of “equity” is being distorted as part of a crass money grab. This isn’t equity. It’s Commissioner Ellis seeking reparations for misdeeds of generations past.
To me, equity in this context means a fair, just, impartial, or balanced distribution of funds.
Equity should be based on objective measures, such as area served, population served, or miles that must be maintained. Those should be debated openly.
The way Commissioner Ellis uses the word, however, the outcome becomes the opposite of equity. Money is not distributed based on per capita, per road mile, or per square mile. It’s based on racial preference and results in an inequitable distribution of funds based on other objective measures.
It’s hard to reason with someone flaming about racial injustice 200 years ago. And Mr. Ellis, like most demagogues, knows that. He also exploits it. I just hope he doesn’t kill growth in Harris County while he’s doing it. Because that’s where he’s headed…including (insiders say) redirecting money from the flood bond.
Voice your opinion at the next Commissioners Court meeting on Tuesday, July 9
Commissioners Court meetings are open to the public and begin at 10:00 a.m. at 1001 Preston Street, Suite 934, Houston, Texas 77002. However, if you wish to speak, you must complete the online appearance request form found at:
https://appearancerequest.harriscountytx.gov/
It is now very typical for Commissioners Court to go beyond 6 hours.
Those who do not state an agenda item when they sign up are usually forced to wait until the end of the session. However, you can insert the agenda item in the “Subject Matter” box when you sign up. This should increase the probability of you speaking earlier.
Agenda item 19.e.1.b Mobility Funding includes this topic You can also put any additional description that you want in the subject description box.
Here is the link for a copy of the agenda: https://agenda.harriscountytx.gov
If you are unable to speak in person, contact Judge Hidalgo to express your concern. Make sure you read this four part series on equity first.
The Honorable Judge Lina Hidalgo
1001 Preston, Suite 911
Houston, TX 77002
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/7/2019
677 Days since Hurricane Harvey