There’s a lot more in a cone map than meets the eye. The map below shows the latest forecast track for Tropical Storm Barry. Here’s a short tutorial on some other things you can get out of it.
Status of Tropical Storm Barry as of 1PM CDT, Friday July 12, 2019
As you can see, the trajectory continues to favor landfall in Louisiana and then movement up through Arkansas. However, these maps convey much more information that may not be apparent at first glance.
What Cone Map Symbols Mean
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow).
The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone.
The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated.
The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical.
If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
Forecasting Uncertainty
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white and stippled white areas in the cone map graphic.
The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5.
Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. So about 2 out of 3 times.
How the NHC Forms Cone Maps
To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
Big Difference Between Cone Size and Storm Size
Realize also that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center.
The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center.
Other Linked Graphics Complete the Story
The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in this linked Wind History graphic.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.
All things considered, the latest forecast shows that there’s only a 5% chance that Houston will see tropical storm force winds from this event.
If you have relatives or friends living closer to the center of the projected path, the tabular data above, will show you the exact percentages for dozens of cities.
To Find the Latest Cone Maps
Go to the National Hurricane Center and click on two-day or five-day. Then scroll to the bottom of the page for many linked graphics that tell the story of the storm.
Rainfall Graphic
Latest rainfall map projects that Houston may get up to an inch of rain, while parts of Louisiana are getting more than 16 inches.
Posted by Bob Rehak with Info from the National Hurricane Center on July 12, 2019
682 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/175439_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2019-07-12 16:09:002019-07-12 16:29:22Latest Barry Update and How to Interpret a Cone Map
A new report just released by the SMU Department of Earth Sciences draws several important conclusions that bear on the groundwater management debate in Montgomery County. The report links aquifer depletion and subsidence with fault movement, road damage, home damage, and damage to other structures.
Aquifer Depletion Linked to Fault Activation/Property Damage
Significant findings include:
Excessive groundwater production has resulted in water-level declines, subsidence, and fault movement.
Subsidence and fault movement are not just limited to the Evangeline aquifer; they also occur in the Jasper aquifer.
Fault movement has damaged roads, highways, homes, wells, pipelines, and other surface structures.
Timing and location of fault movement correlates to timing and location of water-level declines and subsidence.
Damages from fault movement go beyond The Woodlands area. They extend as far north as the Conroe Aquatics Center near downtown Conroe.
Peer Reviewed Research Funded by NASA and SMU
NASA and SMU co-funded the peer reviewed research which appeared in the June 25, 2019, issue of the journal Remote Sensing.
Some key quotes:
“Hundreds of paved roads and homes in the Houston area are being offset by faults and require frequent maintenance.” (p. 1)
“The newly discovered fault activation appears to be related to excessive groundwater exploitation from the Jasper aquifer in Montgomery County. The continuous mining of groundwater from the Jasper aquifer formed new water-level decline cones over Montgomery County, corroborating the intensity of new fractures.” (p. 1)
“Our study seems to validate that subsidence and related shallow subsurface fault activities in northern [Greater Houston] relates to mining of aquifers.” (p. 17)
“Faulting activities were in connection with the spatial distribution and density of water-level decline and ground subsidence.” (p. 16)
“…the newly discovered fault activation appears to be related to the stress associated with fluid pressure reductions caused by excessive water extraction from Montgomery County aquifers.” (pp. 17-18)
Corroborates Other Research
The results of this SMU report further corroborate recent findings published by the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District in May, 2018. The subsidence district concluded that the Jasper aquifer is compressible and that the potential for subsidence increases in the northern portions of the Jasper where it is being used for freshwater supply.
Last year, I observed that we should have full cost accounting for sand mining along the river. If we had such a thing, sand mining practices might be different. The same could be said for groundwater pumping. As a famous oil-filter commercial once said, “You can pay me now or pay me later.” Yet another Montgomery County mystery to ponder.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/12/2019
682 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Screen-Shot-2019-07-11-at-10.53.56-PM-copy.jpg?fit=1500%2C987&ssl=19871500adminadmin2019-07-11 23:09:592019-07-11 23:10:08Fault Movement and Property Damage Linked to Aquifer Depletion in Montgomery County
Ninety-one more acres. Gone. Without a care or hint of caution. This used to be a forest and wetlands. With deer. Seasonal ponds. And creeks running through it. Adjacent to the West Fork of the San Jacinto.
And most of it is in the floodplain. Which will likely be expanded shortly after this development is built.
New development between Sorters Road and the West Fork of the San Jacinto. Drone photo by Franz Willette, BCAeronautics.
Now it’s barren. Dirt in the process of becoming concrete and asphalt shingles. Three-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath tributes to willful blindness. The “vision” of a Colorado developer. Who saw an opportunity to buy cheap, flood-prone land and sell high. If they marketed it right.
Maybe they will call the high-density, starter homes “river estates.” Maybe the streets will bear the names of the birds or wild animals that once lived here. Eagle Pond. White Tail Trail. Or maybe the names will invoke the imagery of an exclusive retreat by the shore of a natural wonder. Sandy Shore Lane. Hidden Springs.
But the reality will be far different. Mold. Rot. Silicosis from the surrounding sand mines. Flooding. Repairs. Living with fear every time a storm approaches. Years lost hassling with adjusters and contractors. Paying for the home over and over again…every time it is rebuilt. Tax protests. Eventual buyouts. Abandonment. Decay. Demolition.
Panning right from previous shot. The West Fork of the San Jacinto is lost between the sand mines in the background. Drone photo by Franz Willette, BCAeronautics.
And finally eventual restoration of the forest and wetlands, that if left intact, could have avoided all the pain and suffering. Here. And downstream. Where other people had no idea that tax-subsidized flood-insurance would encourage the death of caution and put them at risk, too.
More sand mines in background. Sorters Road runs diagonally from center bottom to center right.Drone photo by Franz Willette, BCAeronautics.Drone photo by Franz Willette, BCAeronautics. Drone photo by Franz Willette, BCAeronautics.
More on Throwing Caution to Wind
As a side note: Did you notice something else in the photos of this Montgomery County development? Just like Woodridge Village, silt fences have major gaps! Runoff is going directly into ditches which lead to the West Fork. I wonder if the Montgomery County permitting authorities and TCEQ know about that. LJA Engineers probably hasn’t gotten around to inspecting this one yet. Are you seeing a pattern here?
All thoughts expressed in this post are my opinions on matters of public policy and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BCAeronautics-Oakhurst-West-1.jpg?fit=1500%2C1125&ssl=111251500adminadmin2019-07-11 14:43:192019-07-11 23:51:47Living on the Edge or The Death of Caution
Latest Barry Update and How to Interpret a Cone Map
There’s a lot more in a cone map than meets the eye. The map below shows the latest forecast track for Tropical Storm Barry. Here’s a short tutorial on some other things you can get out of it.
As you can see, the trajectory continues to favor landfall in Louisiana and then movement up through Arkansas. However, these maps convey much more information that may not be apparent at first glance.
What Cone Map Symbols Mean
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow).
The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone.
The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated.
The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical.
If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
Forecasting Uncertainty
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast “cone”, the solid white and stippled white areas in the cone map graphic.
The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5.
How the NHC Forms Cone Maps
To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
Big Difference Between Cone Size and Storm Size
Realize also that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center.
Other Linked Graphics Complete the Story
The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in this linked Wind History graphic.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.
If you have relatives or friends living closer to the center of the projected path, the tabular data above, will show you the exact percentages for dozens of cities.
To Find the Latest Cone Maps
Go to the National Hurricane Center and click on two-day or five-day. Then scroll to the bottom of the page for many linked graphics that tell the story of the storm.
Rainfall Graphic
Posted by Bob Rehak with Info from the National Hurricane Center on July 12, 2019
682 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Fault Movement and Property Damage Linked to Aquifer Depletion in Montgomery County
A new report just released by the SMU Department of Earth Sciences draws several important conclusions that bear on the groundwater management debate in Montgomery County. The report links aquifer depletion and subsidence with fault movement, road damage, home damage, and damage to other structures.
Aquifer Depletion Linked to Fault Activation/Property Damage
Significant findings include:
Peer Reviewed Research Funded by NASA and SMU
NASA and SMU co-funded the peer reviewed research which appeared in the June 25, 2019, issue of the journal Remote Sensing.
Some key quotes:
“Hundreds of paved roads and homes in the Houston area are being offset by faults and require frequent maintenance.” (p. 1)
“The newly discovered fault activation appears to be related to excessive groundwater exploitation from the Jasper aquifer in Montgomery County. The continuous mining of groundwater from the Jasper aquifer formed new water-level decline cones over Montgomery County, corroborating the intensity of new fractures.” (p. 1)
“Our study seems to validate that subsidence and related shallow subsurface fault activities in northern [Greater Houston] relates to mining of aquifers.” (p. 17)
“Faulting activities were in connection with the spatial distribution and density of water-level decline and ground subsidence.” (p. 16)
“…the newly discovered fault activation appears to be related to the stress associated with fluid pressure reductions caused by excessive water extraction from Montgomery County aquifers.” (pp. 17-18)
Corroborates Other Research
The results of this SMU report further corroborate recent findings published by the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District in May, 2018. The subsidence district concluded that the Jasper aquifer is compressible and that the potential for subsidence increases in the northern portions of the Jasper where it is being used for freshwater supply.
For Full Report
Need for Full-Cost Accounting
Last year, I observed that we should have full cost accounting for sand mining along the river. If we had such a thing, sand mining practices might be different. The same could be said for groundwater pumping. As a famous oil-filter commercial once said, “You can pay me now or pay me later.” Yet another Montgomery County mystery to ponder.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/12/2019
682 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Living on the Edge or The Death of Caution
Ninety-one more acres. Gone. Without a care or hint of caution. This used to be a forest and wetlands. With deer. Seasonal ponds. And creeks running through it. Adjacent to the West Fork of the San Jacinto.
And most of it is in the floodplain. Which will likely be expanded shortly after this development is built.
Now it’s barren. Dirt in the process of becoming concrete and asphalt shingles. Three-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath tributes to willful blindness. The “vision” of a Colorado developer. Who saw an opportunity to buy cheap, flood-prone land and sell high. If they marketed it right.
Maybe they will call the high-density, starter homes “river estates.” Maybe the streets will bear the names of the birds or wild animals that once lived here. Eagle Pond. White Tail Trail. Or maybe the names will invoke the imagery of an exclusive retreat by the shore of a natural wonder. Sandy Shore Lane. Hidden Springs.
But the reality will be far different. Mold. Rot. Silicosis from the surrounding sand mines. Flooding. Repairs. Living with fear every time a storm approaches. Years lost hassling with adjusters and contractors. Paying for the home over and over again…every time it is rebuilt. Tax protests. Eventual buyouts. Abandonment. Decay. Demolition.
And finally eventual restoration of the forest and wetlands, that if left intact, could have avoided all the pain and suffering. Here. And downstream. Where other people had no idea that tax-subsidized flood-insurance would encourage the death of caution and put them at risk, too.
Drone photo by Franz Willette, BCAeronautics.
More on Throwing Caution to Wind
As a side note: Did you notice something else in the photos of this Montgomery County development? Just like Woodridge Village, silt fences have major gaps! Runoff is going directly into ditches which lead to the West Fork. I wonder if the Montgomery County permitting authorities and TCEQ know about that. LJA Engineers probably hasn’t gotten around to inspecting this one yet. Are you seeing a pattern here?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/11/2019 with drone photography by Fritz Willette of BCAeronautics
681 Days since Hurricane Harvey
All thoughts expressed in this post are my opinions on matters of public policy and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.