As this hurricane season heats up, you may want to read this article in the Texas Tribune about the Ike Dike or Texas Coastal Barrier. It’s a story about a flood mitigation effort that started in 2008, shortly after Hurricane Ike. I remember this storm vividly. I photographed the damage on the Bolivar Peninsula days after the storm. Despite the massive destruction it caused, nothing has yet been done to prevent a recurrence.
Remembering Ike
For those who don’t remember, Ike was a Cat 4 storm that weakened over Cuba, emerged into the Gulf, and came onshore at the northeast end of Galveston as a Cat 2. Ike came right up the center of Galveston Bay. The eye passed over the Lake Houston area.
Ike caused massive damage everywhere, killed more than a hundred people in Texas, and leveled thousands of homes on the Bolivar.
I remember vividly that evening watching giant pine trees bent 90 degrees, looking up at the stars the next minute and seeing those same pine trees bent 90 degrees in the other direction a few minutes later – ninety miles inland! When I emerged from my storm shelter the next morning, power was out everywhere. It would remain out for 13 days because of all the trees down on power lines.
Ike Dike Proposed to Protect Industry
Almost immediately, people began talking about an Ike Dike to protect the refining and petrochemical industry lining the western shores of the Bay. Had Ike come in a little west of where it did, those plants would have borne the direct brunt of the dirty side of the storm. How bad was the destruction on the dirty side? See the sequence of pictures below. It starts with two images from Google Earth. One taken a week before Ike. One taken days after.
Before and After Images from Google Earth of the Bolivar
Bolivar Peninsula on 9/3/2008, was covered with beach homes, some of which were occupied year round.Bolivar Peninsula immediately after Ike. Streets are superimposed over the image in Google Earth. Those things that look like roofs are really slabs. See below.
Images Taken on the Ground Days After Ike
The storm surge from Ike tore sewers and water lines right out of the ground.From this location, not one home was left standing as far as the eye could see.People had a hard time even finding their streets. Storm surge carried them away, too.People spray painted addresses on slabs for insurance adjusters…if there was a slab to find.Mardi gras beads stuck in this tree…a sad reminder of happier times.Destruction on the Bolivar Peninsula after Hurricane Ike was complete. Even though homes had been elevated, it wasn’t enough to survive the storm surge.
Ike Storm Surge Reached 20 Miles Inland
The storm surge swept homes off their foundations 12 miles inland along FM1985. The surge reached the southern edge of Winnie on I-10, approximately 20 miles inland. I remember looking up at utility poles on the northern edge of Anahuac National Wildlife refuge and seeing seaweed in the telephone lines.
What Same Area Looks Like Today
Eleven years later, here’s an image showing the same area in the Google Earth images above.
Ike would have been a golden opportunity to turn this area into a national seashore. Not so much today. They’re BA-AAAACK, as they say in the horror movies.
Lessons Not Learned
I guess people’s love of nature is stronger than their fear of it. The Ike Dike is still a distant dream. And taxpayers are still subsidizing vacation homes on the edge of oblivion with Federally funded flood insurance.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/3/2019
703 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 3975 days since Hurricane Ike
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Hurricane-Ike-358-e1746218969261.jpg?fit=1100%2C732&ssl=17321100adminadmin2019-08-02 01:03:172019-08-02 01:09:00Hurricane Ike: Sometimes the Lesson Learned is That We Haven’t Learned the Lesson
Montgomery County commissioners will consider changing flood mitigation requirements for new developments at their regular August 27 meeting. Commissioners will hear public testimony and consider approving a revision to the Montgomery County Drainage Criteria Manual. The change would close a loophole that allows developers to substitute “flood routing studies” for detention ponds in new Montgomery County developments.
How Developers Use Flood Routing Studies
Flood routing studies calculate when runoff from a new development will hit a river during a major rain event. If results show that the runoff will reach the river before the crest of a flood, developers may not need to build detention ponds. The idea: it’s not adding to the peak, so why run up costs needlessly?
Why Flood Routing Studies are Inadequate
In principle, that sounds good. However, routing studies almost always contain flawed assumptions according to Jeff Johnson, Montgomery County’s Engineer.
First, they don’t consider the cumulative effects of other developments. Second, they are almost always based on outdated hydrologic models. And third, they assume “ideal” storm conditions.
“If you start with a brand new hydrologic model,” says Johnson, “the modeling a developer does could theoretically be accurate.” But his/her runoff changes the model. That runoff rarely gets incorporated into the model that the next developer uses. “So the next developer is dealing with outdated assumptions,” says Johnson. Same way with the third and fourth developers, etc. They all keep going back to the original model, even though they know it has been changed by previous developments. Said another way, additional runoff is not added to the model on which subsequent developers base their calculations. So they all show no consequences when the cumulative effects can be large.
Another problem. They all base calculations on ideal assumptions. Johnson estimated that only a small percentage of storms conformed with ideal conditions. For one example, calculations are valid only if rain stops before the flood reaches its peak.
Shortage of Detention Leads to Downstream Flooding
As a result, there’s not enough detention upstream to protect downstream residents during a major storm.
Many developers like the flawed assumptions behind the routing studies. They justify building less detention, which costs developers time and money. And with less detention, they can develop and sell more lots per acre. So they reduce costs and increase income.
But when that happens, somebody downstream pays the price. “They’re not being responsible,” said Johnson. “This is a public safety issue.”
One flood expert that I interviewed for this article said, “Only good things come from more detention.”
City of Houston Public Works Director Agrees
As if to punctuate Johnson’s point, shortly after my interview with him, I attended a talk by City of Houston Publics Work Director Carol Haddock. Haddock emphasized that flooding today largely stems from problems inherited from legacy infrastructure. “We’re living with infrastructure developed before we knew what we now know about flooding,” said Haddock.
Haddock argued for both higher drainage and detention capacity. They will help accommodate future floods and future development – while protecting people and property downstream, she argued.
Projected MoCo Growth Underscores Need to Close Development Loophole
Getting drainage and detention right is crucial, not just for families downstream in northern Harris County, but also for families in Montgomery County itself. The New Caney ISD (NCISD) is projected to grow substantially in the next few years. The NCISD just completed a demographic update from Population and Survey Analysts (PASA). (Caution: 58 meg download.) Page 6 of the study shows that the District expects to grow by more than 19,000 housing units in the next 10 years. That’s almost as large as Kingwood. And it doesn’t even include commercial space.
A graphic from a Caldwell Brokerage brochure shows some of the major current and planned developments in the area between the Woodlands and Kingwoodwith the number of homes.
In the previous 5 years, the NCISD had the second highest percent change in school district enrollment in the region at a whopping 30.3%. Only Alvin had a higher increase at 31.6%.
PASA graphic comparing 5-year growth rates in area school district enrollments.
PASA predicts the new commercial area near 45 and 99 will have as much square footage as downtown Austin. And, further upstream, Conroe was the fastest growing City in America in 2017.
Fortunately, the new San Jacinto River Basin Survey will update hydrologic models. But with projected growth like this, they will become outdated as soon as they are complete. All the more reason to move away from the flood routing paradigm of development and require more on-site detention. ASAP.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Growth-NCISD.jpg?fit=856%2C1160&ssl=11160856adminadmin2019-07-31 22:56:442019-07-31 23:00:03MoCo Will Consider Requiring More Detention for New Developments in August 27 Meeting
The 86th Texas Legislature charged the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) with implementing flood-related legislation, including Senate Bill (SB) 7, SB 8, SB 500, and House Joint Resolution 4. This legislation greatly expanded the TWDB’s role in flood planning and financing.
Planning the New State Flood Plan
The TWDB will administer a new state flood planning program. This program establishes a state and regional flood planning process, with flood planning regions based on river basins. The TWDB aims to have the first regional flood plans by 2023, and the first state flood plan by September 1, 2024.
Light pole near River Bend in North Shore as Harvey receded. Note the “wet marks” several feet up on pole. Photo by Jim Balcom.
The legislature also authorized a one-time transfer of $793 million from the state’s Economic Stabilization or “Rainy Day” Fund to create a new flood mitigation funding program that the TWDB will administer. The goal: to make drainage and flood projects more affordable and to meet immediate needs for funding. The funding will become available in 2020.
Statewide Call for Input
Says Jeff Walker, Executive Director, “The TWDB is working to get these programs up and running as quickly as possible and to hire staff for these new roles. Prior to formal rulemaking activities this fall, we are seeking input on a variety of issues, including but not limited to:
Administration of funding for flood control planning and drainage, flood mitigation, and flood control projects
Creation of regional and state flood planning process and related requirements
Potential flood planning region boundaries
State and regional flood planning guidance principles”
Written feedback is requested by August 30, 2019 and should be submitted to rulescomments@twdb.texas.gov.
Issues Being Considered
TWDB will also host stakeholder workshops around the state the first two weeks of August; these will include presentations on implementation efforts and issues for stakeholder consideration as well as opportunities for giving formal comments and for informal discussions with TWDB staff and board members.
TWDB invites you to join these discussions. In the coming months, you can help create new state programs that will better protect Texans against the loss of life and property from flooding.
What will be the most effective form of financial assistance? Grants or loans?
Should they require local matches?
What types of projects should get the highest priority?
Should state funds complement federal buyout funds?
How can the TDWB ensure cooperation of all political entities in a watershed?
How can we avoid conflicts between state and regional flood plans?
How can we ensure that flood mitigation measures in one area don’t exacerbate flooding in another?
Regional Workshop in Tomball on August 9
The information included in the PDF linked above is intended to generate discussion and to solicit specific feedback that will inform formal rulemaking and other implementation efforts.
Written feedback is requested by August 30, 2019 and should be submitted to rulescomments@twdb.texas.gov.
If you have thoughts you would like to volunteer on these or other planning issues, you can also discuss them in person at:
Beckendorf Conference Center at Lone Star College–Tomball
30555 Tomball Pkwy.
Tomball, TX 77375
9:30-11:30 a.m.
Friday, August 9
Sign up for more information about these meetings and other flood information at the TWDB’s website. You can also contact the TWDB at (512) 463-8725 or flood@twdb.texas.gov.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/30/2019with photo by Jim Balcom
700 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/image4-1-e1553198926707.jpeg?fit=966%2C1400&ssl=11400966adminadmin2019-07-30 21:30:132019-07-30 21:40:18Flood Planning: How Would You Spend $793 million?
Hurricane Ike: Sometimes the Lesson Learned is That We Haven’t Learned the Lesson
As this hurricane season heats up, you may want to read this article in the Texas Tribune about the Ike Dike or Texas Coastal Barrier. It’s a story about a flood mitigation effort that started in 2008, shortly after Hurricane Ike. I remember this storm vividly. I photographed the damage on the Bolivar Peninsula days after the storm. Despite the massive destruction it caused, nothing has yet been done to prevent a recurrence.
Remembering Ike
For those who don’t remember, Ike was a Cat 4 storm that weakened over Cuba, emerged into the Gulf, and came onshore at the northeast end of Galveston as a Cat 2. Ike came right up the center of Galveston Bay. The eye passed over the Lake Houston area.
Ike caused massive damage everywhere, killed more than a hundred people in Texas, and leveled thousands of homes on the Bolivar.
I remember vividly that evening watching giant pine trees bent 90 degrees, looking up at the stars the next minute and seeing those same pine trees bent 90 degrees in the other direction a few minutes later – ninety miles inland! When I emerged from my storm shelter the next morning, power was out everywhere. It would remain out for 13 days because of all the trees down on power lines.
Ike Dike Proposed to Protect Industry
Almost immediately, people began talking about an Ike Dike to protect the refining and petrochemical industry lining the western shores of the Bay. Had Ike come in a little west of where it did, those plants would have borne the direct brunt of the dirty side of the storm. How bad was the destruction on the dirty side? See the sequence of pictures below. It starts with two images from Google Earth. One taken a week before Ike. One taken days after.
Before and After Images from Google Earth of the Bolivar
Images Taken on the Ground Days After Ike
Ike Storm Surge Reached 20 Miles Inland
The storm surge swept homes off their foundations 12 miles inland along FM1985. The surge reached the southern edge of Winnie on I-10, approximately 20 miles inland. I remember looking up at utility poles on the northern edge of Anahuac National Wildlife refuge and seeing seaweed in the telephone lines.
What Same Area Looks Like Today
Ike would have been a golden opportunity to turn this area into a national seashore. Not so much today. They’re BA-AAAACK, as they say in the horror movies.
Lessons Not Learned
I guess people’s love of nature is stronger than their fear of it. The Ike Dike is still a distant dream. And taxpayers are still subsidizing vacation homes on the edge of oblivion with Federally funded flood insurance.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/3/2019
703 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 3975 days since Hurricane Ike
MoCo Will Consider Requiring More Detention for New Developments in August 27 Meeting
Montgomery County commissioners will consider changing flood mitigation requirements for new developments at their regular August 27 meeting. Commissioners will hear public testimony and consider approving a revision to the Montgomery County Drainage Criteria Manual. The change would close a loophole that allows developers to substitute “flood routing studies” for detention ponds in new Montgomery County developments.
How Developers Use Flood Routing Studies
Flood routing studies calculate when runoff from a new development will hit a river during a major rain event. If results show that the runoff will reach the river before the crest of a flood, developers may not need to build detention ponds. The idea: it’s not adding to the peak, so why run up costs needlessly?
Why Flood Routing Studies are Inadequate
In principle, that sounds good. However, routing studies almost always contain flawed assumptions according to Jeff Johnson, Montgomery County’s Engineer.
“If you start with a brand new hydrologic model,” says Johnson, “the modeling a developer does could theoretically be accurate.” But his/her runoff changes the model. That runoff rarely gets incorporated into the model that the next developer uses. “So the next developer is dealing with outdated assumptions,” says Johnson. Same way with the third and fourth developers, etc. They all keep going back to the original model, even though they know it has been changed by previous developments. Said another way, additional runoff is not added to the model on which subsequent developers base their calculations. So they all show no consequences when the cumulative effects can be large.
Another problem. They all base calculations on ideal assumptions. Johnson estimated that only a small percentage of storms conformed with ideal conditions. For one example, calculations are valid only if rain stops before the flood reaches its peak.
Shortage of Detention Leads to Downstream Flooding
As a result, there’s not enough detention upstream to protect downstream residents during a major storm.
Many developers like the flawed assumptions behind the routing studies. They justify building less detention, which costs developers time and money. And with less detention, they can develop and sell more lots per acre. So they reduce costs and increase income.
But when that happens, somebody downstream pays the price. “They’re not being responsible,” said Johnson. “This is a public safety issue.”
One flood expert that I interviewed for this article said, “Only good things come from more detention.”
City of Houston Public Works Director Agrees
As if to punctuate Johnson’s point, shortly after my interview with him, I attended a talk by City of Houston Publics Work Director Carol Haddock. Haddock emphasized that flooding today largely stems from problems inherited from legacy infrastructure. “We’re living with infrastructure developed before we knew what we now know about flooding,” said Haddock.
Haddock argued for both higher drainage and detention capacity. They will help accommodate future floods and future development – while protecting people and property downstream, she argued.
Projected MoCo Growth Underscores Need to Close Development Loophole
Getting drainage and detention right is crucial, not just for families downstream in northern Harris County, but also for families in Montgomery County itself. The New Caney ISD (NCISD) is projected to grow substantially in the next few years. The NCISD just completed a demographic update from Population and Survey Analysts (PASA). (Caution: 58 meg download.) Page 6 of the study shows that the District expects to grow by more than 19,000 housing units in the next 10 years. That’s almost as large as Kingwood. And it doesn’t even include commercial space.
In the previous 5 years, the NCISD had the second highest percent change in school district enrollment in the region at a whopping 30.3%. Only Alvin had a higher increase at 31.6%.
PASA predicts the new commercial area near 45 and 99 will have as much square footage as downtown Austin. And, further upstream, Conroe was the fastest growing City in America in 2017.
Fortunately, the new San Jacinto River Basin Survey will update hydrologic models. But with projected growth like this, they will become outdated as soon as they are complete. All the more reason to move away from the flood routing paradigm of development and require more on-site detention. ASAP.
Register Your Opinion
Expect developers to testify against closing the “flood routing study” loophole. You can testify for closing it, however. Montgomery County Commissioners will hear public testimony at their regular meeting on August 27th. The meeting starts at 9:30. Montgomery County has special sign-up procedures for citizens who wish to testify; make sure you sign up beforehand. Check the agenda beforehand to plan your time. You can also register your opinion with county commissioners via phone or email.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/31/2019
701 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Flood Planning: How Would You Spend $793 million?
The 86th Texas Legislature charged the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) with implementing flood-related legislation, including Senate Bill (SB) 7, SB 8, SB 500, and House Joint Resolution 4. This legislation greatly expanded the TWDB’s role in flood planning and financing.
Planning the New State Flood Plan
The TWDB will administer a new state flood planning program. This program establishes a state and regional flood planning process, with flood planning regions based on river basins. The TWDB aims to have the first regional flood plans by 2023, and the first state flood plan by September 1, 2024.
The legislature also authorized a one-time transfer of $793 million from the state’s Economic Stabilization or “Rainy Day” Fund to create a new flood mitigation funding program that the TWDB will administer. The goal: to make drainage and flood projects more affordable and to meet immediate needs for funding. The funding will become available in 2020.
Statewide Call for Input
Says Jeff Walker, Executive Director, “The TWDB is working to get these programs up and running as quickly as possible and to hire staff for these new roles. Prior to formal rulemaking activities this fall, we are seeking input on a variety of issues, including but not limited to:
The information included in this PDF is intended to generate discussion and to solicit specific feedback that will inform formal rulemaking and other implementation efforts.
Issues Being Considered
TWDB will also host stakeholder workshops around the state the first two weeks of August; these will include presentations on implementation efforts and issues for stakeholder consideration as well as opportunities for giving formal comments and for informal discussions with TWDB staff and board members.
TWDB invites you to join these discussions. In the coming months, you can help create new state programs that will better protect Texans against the loss of life and property from flooding.
Spending close to a billion dollars is not easy. Given that funding is finite and needs are not, it will require establishing rules. This PDF explains many of the issues that the TDWB will review at its upcoming public meeting in Tomball on August 9. They include, but are not limited to:
Regional Workshop in Tomball on August 9
The information included in the PDF linked above is intended to generate discussion and to solicit specific feedback that will inform formal rulemaking and other implementation efforts.
If you have thoughts you would like to volunteer on these or other planning issues, you can also discuss them in person at:
Sign up for more information about these meetings and other flood information at the TWDB’s website. You can also contact the TWDB at (512) 463-8725 or flood@twdb.texas.gov.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/30/2019 with photo by Jim Balcom
700 Days since Hurricane Harvey