Potential for Heavy Rainfall, Flash Flooding Increasing This Week

Low-pressure System Will Meander Near Coast

Lake Charles and Houston radars show numerous clusters and bands of heavy rainfall across Gulf waters associated with deep tropical moisture. These bands will soon begin to move onshore.

Lake Charles radar shows numerous bands of heavy showers just offshore headed this way.
Houston Hobby radar shows similar banding.

Cumulative Rainfall Potential Through Friday

Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Wednesday this Week.

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center, models have come into agreement. They predict a surface-low pressure system may form just offshore on Tuesday and drift inland over southeast Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center currently gives the system only a 10% chance of tropical formation…

BUT regardless heavy rainfall should result.

Ingredients appear to be coming together late Tuesday through Thursday for a heavy rainfall event over the region. 

Endless Supply of Tropical Moisture

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, “An endless supply of moisture will pump into the region. Formation of slow-moving, training rain bands appears likely over portions of the area.”

This weather system could produce excessive rainfall, enough to saturate dry ground in a short period of time. Rains today and Tuesday especially south of I-10 will saturate dry ground. Conditions by Wednesday should support much more run-off, over a wider area.

10-15 Inches Possible

Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches will be likely over much of the area with isolated totals of 10-15 inches possible. 

Hourly rainfall rates of 3-4 inches will be possible under any training bands and any slow-moving clusters resulting in rapid-onset urban flash flooding. The threat for creek, bayou, and river flooding will increase by mid-week as grounds become increasingly saturated and run-off increases.

Flash flooding will be possible.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2019 as of 9 a.m.

748 Days since Hurricane Harvey

UH Center for Public History Sponsors Talk by Tim Garfield on Influence of Mouth Bar on Harvey Flooding

Mark your calendar. On Wednesday, October 2, 2019, from 4:30 to 6:00pm, Tim Garfield, a Kingwood resident and one of the world’s leading geoscientists, will deliver a talk at the University of Houston. The subject: how the mouth bar of the San Jacinto West Fork contributed to flooding during Hurricane Harvey and what its continued presence means for the future of residents in the Lake Houston Area.

About the Speaker and Sponsor

Garfield has been one of the leaders in the grassroots movement to mitigate the influence of the mouth bar on flooding. The University of Houston History Department and Houston History Magazine have also led the movement to document the impacts of flooding on the development of Houston.

Event Details

The flier below gives more specifics about the talk.

For a printable PDF of this flier, click here.

Driving and Parking Instruction for the University of Houston Honors Commons

The event is free and open to the public. It will be held at the University of Houston Honors Commons. To learn how to get there, where to park and how to navigate from parking to the event, see below.

For a printable PDF of the driving and parking instructions, click here.

Brought to You By…

Debbie Z. Harwell, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of History at UH and the Editor of Houston History Magazine, arranged this event. Kudos to Garfield and Harwell for documenting the impacts of Harvey and geomorphic processes on the history of Houston.

This is one of those rare times when human history and geologic history intersect. Don’t miss it!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/14/2019

746 Days since Hurricane Harvey


Mark Your Calendar: Houston Stronger to Host Public Forum About Flood Risk Reduction Strategies and Action

On Wednesday, October 2nd, Houston Stronger will host a free public forum about Flood Risk Reduction Strategies and Action.

City, county and state leaders will discuss their priorities for the distribution of FEMA money. Will they match your priorities? The Lake Houston Area should turn out in force for this meeting.

Houston Stronger Speakers

Chief speakers include:

  • Stephen Costello, City of Houston Chief Resiliency Officer
  • W. Nim Kidd, Chief, Texas Division of Emergency Management
  • Russ Poppe, Executive Director, Harris County Flood Control District
  • Steve Costello, Chief Recovery Officer, City of Houston ‘
  • Sheri Willey, Deputy Chief, Project Management Branch, USACE SWG
  • Player yet-to-be-named from the Texas General Land Office

Time, Date, Place

Houston Stronger will host the meeting from 10-11-30 at:

  • HCC West Houston Institute
  • 2811 Hayes Road
  • Houston, TX

Tickets are free but only 300 seats exis,t so sign up quickly. Only registered people may attend.

One Meeting that Matters

Meeting details are sketchy at this time. But organizers tell me the forum will focus on how to spend FEMA money coming to Texas.

A large part of that decision depends on advocacy. So a large turnout from the Lake Houston Area will raise our visibility and help our cause. This meeting matters! Let’s fill the room and make our voices heard. If you click on the link to Houston Stronger priorities, you will immediately see the importance of a strong turnout.

I will post more details on this Houston Stronger meeting as they become available.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/13/2019

745 Days since Hurricane Harvey