A tropical disturbance located over the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico now has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. At this time there is, still no threat to the Texas coast.
A trough of low pressure that was in Central America yesterday, moved across the Yucatan overnight as predicated. It now is just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche and producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Guidance from National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center predicts possible gradual development. They say that a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system moves generally northeastward. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
24 hours ago, the comparable numbers were 0 and 10.
Disturbance in Bay of Campeche now has a 5-day 50% chance of tropical formation.
The Story Behind the Storm
Conditions appear favorable for slow development of this system because of upper level wind patterns and warm sea surface temperatures. An area of high pressure over the SE Gulf of Mexico will direct this feature toward the N and then NNE by late this week.
At the same time an approaching trough from the SW US will move toward west Texas by late in the weekend should force any tropical system to turn NE/ENE. Global model guidance supports a track of any tropical system toward the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Here’s a map that shows the expected location of the front two days from now. Note how the front pushes that orange line toward the NE.
Expected frontal location two days from now should push any tropical disturbance toward the NE.
Given the expected upper level shear across the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend any system will likely have the majority of the weather near and far to the east of any actual surface circulation. That means people in Louisiana and east of there should get out their umbrellas. Houston will likely be on the dry side of the storm.
Keep your eyes on the Gulf any time a storm forms. Remember that Harvey originated in this same general area and forecasters predicted it to move inland over Mexico. It did…for a while.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/16/2019, with help from the National Hurricane Center and Harris County Flood Control
778 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 27 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/two_atl_5d0-2.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2019-10-16 10:10:072019-10-16 10:12:32Tropical Formation Chances Increased Again Overnight, But Track Still Likely East of Houston
People who receive individual assistance from FEMA after a disaster such as Harvey are required to have flood insurance. But some people who cannot afford flood insurance become covered under a group flood insurance policy and may not even realize it.
Flooded During Harvey and Again in Imelda
In the last two weeks, I visited numerous people along the East Fork and Caney Creek in less fortunate neighborhoods. They flooded in Harvey and then again during Imelda. For these people, the devastation is especially crushing because they could not afford flood insurance…or so they told me.
Home below Triple PG Sand Mine in Walden Woods between Caney and White Oak Creekswas almost knocked off its foundationduring Imeldaand suffered extensive damage.
Almost all of the people I interviewed have tried to rebuild homes out of pocket as money becomes available. Some do the work themselves to make money stretch further. They are also trying to replace vehicles lost in floods. For these folks, recovering from the second flood in two years is like climbing a financial Mt. Everest.
Group Vs. Individual Flood Insurance Policies
However, Dianne Innes Cooper, who used to work for FEMA, made me aware of their Group Flood Insurance Policies. Then Kaaren Cambio, Congressman Dan Crenshaw’s assistant, made some calls to FEMA to explore who is eligible.
In short, if you flooded during Harvey, received FEMA Individual Assistance (IA), and flooded again, you are most likely covered under a group flood insurance policy. You may be entitled to benefits even if you didn’t know about the policy.
The 36-month Group Flood Insurance Policy (GFIP) begins 60 days after the Presidential Disaster Declaration.
The flood insurance is transferrable to people who may buy the property, but not subsequent renters.
Applicants do NOT receive a copy of the actual policy, just a certificate of coverage.
Applicants do NOT have the ability to decline the GFIP.
People who accept SBA loans are NOT eligible for a FEMA-purchased GFIP certificate.
After the Group policy expires, you need to purchase individual insurance to continue coverage.
Most people who flooded during Harvey and again during Imelda would still be covered under a GFIP issued after Harvey.
For More Information and to Verify Coverage
If it sounds like you might be covered under a group policy, but aren’t sure, you can verify coverage. FEMA lists a hotline for disaster assistance: (800) 621-FEMA (3362).
Congressman Dan Crenshaw’s office can also make inquiries for you. However, before the Congressman can help, you must download and fill out a FEMA Privacy Release Form.
Kaaren Cambio from Congressman Crenshaw’s office will be at the FEMA meeting at the Kingwood Community Center tonight starting at 6:30. You can also call or email her at the Congressman’s office during normal business hours.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/15/2019, with thanks to Dianne Cooper and Kaaren Cambio
777 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 26 after Imelda.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/RJR_3655.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2019-10-15 18:09:302019-10-15 21:23:49You May Have Group Flood Insurance and Not Even Realize It
Updated Tuesday @ 1:25 p.m.: At 1 p.m. Houston time this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the chances of tropical formation for a disturbance that could move into the Gulf tomorrow.
As of 7 a.m. Houston time this morning, the National Hurricane Center issued this advice about a trough of low pressure that is producing showers and thunderstorms over the southern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and northern Guatemala.
“By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development towards the end of the week when the system is located over the western Gulf of Mexico.”
Formation chances through 48 hours are now rated…low…near 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.
Advice from Harris County Flood Control
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control’s meteorologist, had this to say about the disturbance.
Global forecast models have been suggesting that the large area of disturbed weather over central America will drift WNW into the southern Bay of Campeche by the middle of this week and then NW toward the SW Gulf of Mexico by late this week. Recent trends suggest upper level conditions may become favorable for the formation of a tropical system over the SW Gulf of Mexico late this week into this weekend.
Influence of Upper Level Currents
Lindner continued. “An amplifying upper level trough will be approaching TX by late this weekend into early next week and this feature should force any tropical system that forms toward the N and then toward the NE.”
“Latest guidance continues to indicate a tropical system moving across the west-central then north-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
It would be extremely rare for a tropical system to impact the state of TX this late in the hurricane season and the upcoming upper air pattern by this weekend favors a turn of any western Gulf of Mexico system toward the NE toward the central or eastern US Gulf coast.”
Local Forecast: Up to 3 Inches Possible
Lindner had this to say about the forecast for the Houston Area. “A cold front will move into the area tonight and this boundary along with pooled high moisture levels will support a good chance of rainfall over the area tonight into early Wednesday. Lines of showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the frontal boundary with rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches and isolated totals up to 3 inches possible. A cooler and drier air mass will move into the region on Wednesday and linger into the later part of the week before moisture begins to return on Friday into the weekend.”
“It is now somewhat uncertain as to how much moisture will move into the area this weekend with the increasing potential for a western Gulf of Mexico tropical system moving across the central Gulf. This feature may take much of the moisture to our east.”
This far in front of a storm, it’s hard to give exact predictions with much confidence. The best advice: raise your alert level and keep your eyes on the Gulf.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/15/2019
777 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 26 after Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/two_atl_5d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2019-10-15 08:57:502019-10-15 13:32:19This Will Probably Miss Houston, But Keep Eyes on Gulf
Tropical Formation Chances Increased Again Overnight, But Track Still Likely East of Houston
A tropical disturbance located over the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico now has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. At this time there is, still no threat to the Texas coast.
A trough of low pressure that was in Central America yesterday, moved across the Yucatan overnight as predicated. It now is just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche and producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Guidance from National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center predicts possible gradual development. They say that a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system moves generally northeastward. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
24 hours ago, the comparable numbers were 0 and 10.
The Story Behind the Storm
Conditions appear favorable for slow development of this system because of upper level wind patterns and warm sea surface temperatures. An area of high pressure over the SE Gulf of Mexico will direct this feature toward the N and then NNE by late this week.
At the same time an approaching trough from the SW US will move toward west Texas by late in the weekend should force any tropical system to turn NE/ENE. Global model guidance supports a track of any tropical system toward the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Here’s a map that shows the expected location of the front two days from now. Note how the front pushes that orange line toward the NE.
Given the expected upper level shear across the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend any system will likely have the majority of the weather near and far to the east of any actual surface circulation. That means people in Louisiana and east of there should get out their umbrellas. Houston will likely be on the dry side of the storm.
Keep your eyes on the Gulf any time a storm forms. Remember that Harvey originated in this same general area and forecasters predicted it to move inland over Mexico. It did…for a while.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/16/2019, with help from the National Hurricane Center and Harris County Flood Control
778 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 27 since Imelda
You May Have Group Flood Insurance and Not Even Realize It
People who receive individual assistance from FEMA after a disaster such as Harvey are required to have flood insurance. But some people who cannot afford flood insurance become covered under a group flood insurance policy and may not even realize it.
Flooded During Harvey and Again in Imelda
In the last two weeks, I visited numerous people along the East Fork and Caney Creek in less fortunate neighborhoods. They flooded in Harvey and then again during Imelda. For these people, the devastation is especially crushing because they could not afford flood insurance…or so they told me.
Almost all of the people I interviewed have tried to rebuild homes out of pocket as money becomes available. Some do the work themselves to make money stretch further. They are also trying to replace vehicles lost in floods. For these folks, recovering from the second flood in two years is like climbing a financial Mt. Everest.
Group Vs. Individual Flood Insurance Policies
However, Dianne Innes Cooper, who used to work for FEMA, made me aware of their Group Flood Insurance Policies. Then Kaaren Cambio, Congressman Dan Crenshaw’s assistant, made some calls to FEMA to explore who is eligible.
Here is a FEMA Fact Sheet that discusses the ins and outs of Group Flood Insurance. There are several eligibility requirements, so check the sheet carefully.
Some key facts from the fact sheet:
Most people who flooded during Harvey and again during Imelda would still be covered under a GFIP issued after Harvey.
For More Information and to Verify Coverage
If it sounds like you might be covered under a group policy, but aren’t sure, you can verify coverage. FEMA lists a hotline for disaster assistance: (800) 621-FEMA (3362).
Congressman Dan Crenshaw’s office can also make inquiries for you. However, before the Congressman can help, you must download and fill out a FEMA Privacy Release Form.
Kaaren Cambio from Congressman Crenshaw’s office will be at the FEMA meeting at the Kingwood Community Center tonight starting at 6:30. You can also call or email her at the Congressman’s office during normal business hours.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/15/2019, with thanks to Dianne Cooper and Kaaren Cambio
777 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 26 after Imelda.
This Will Probably Miss Houston, But Keep Eyes on Gulf
Updated Tuesday @ 1:25 p.m.: At 1 p.m. Houston time this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the chances of tropical formation for a disturbance that could move into the Gulf tomorrow.
As of 7 a.m. Houston time this morning, the National Hurricane Center issued this advice about a trough of low pressure that is producing showers and thunderstorms over the southern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and northern Guatemala.
“By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development towards the end of the week when the system is located over the western Gulf of Mexico.”
Formation chances through 48 hours are now rated…low…near 10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.
Advice from Harris County Flood Control
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control’s meteorologist, had this to say about the disturbance.
Global forecast models have been suggesting that the large area of disturbed weather over central America will drift WNW into the southern Bay of Campeche by the middle of this week and then NW toward the SW Gulf of Mexico by late this week. Recent trends suggest upper level conditions may become favorable for the formation of a tropical system over the SW Gulf of Mexico late this week into this weekend.
Influence of Upper Level Currents
Lindner continued. “An amplifying upper level trough will be approaching TX by late this weekend into early next week and this feature should force any tropical system that forms toward the N and then toward the NE.”
Local Forecast: Up to 3 Inches Possible
Lindner had this to say about the forecast for the Houston Area. “A cold front will move into the area tonight and this boundary along with pooled high moisture levels will support a good chance of rainfall over the area tonight into early Wednesday. Lines of showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the frontal boundary with rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches and isolated totals up to 3 inches possible. A cooler and drier air mass will move into the region on Wednesday and linger into the later part of the week before moisture begins to return on Friday into the weekend.”
“It is now somewhat uncertain as to how much moisture will move into the area this weekend with the increasing potential for a western Gulf of Mexico tropical system moving across the central Gulf. This feature may take much of the moisture to our east.”
This far in front of a storm, it’s hard to give exact predictions with much confidence. The best advice: raise your alert level and keep your eyes on the Gulf.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/15/2019
777 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 26 after Imelda