The roughly 80,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) Lake Conroe discharged at the peak of Harvey would have created the ninth largest flood in West Fork History – all by itself. Only eight floods ever had higher “discharge” rates AND those all included floodwaters from other tributaries, such as Lake Creek, Spring Creek, Cypress Creek and numerous drainage ditches.
Discharge is the volume of water flowing past a point on a stream. Discharge from a dam would be the volume flowing past the gates.
The discharge during Harvey is important because residents fighting the seasonal lowering of Lake Conroe claim the impact of the release on Humble and Kingwood was insignificant.
Question I Asked Flood Control
So I asked Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control meteorologist, this simple question. “Assuming not a drop of rain fell in any other of the West Fork tributaries, where would that 80,000 CFS have ranked among the history of West Fork floods?” I then asked him to base his analysis on the West Fork gage at US59. It combines water from ALL upstream West Fork tributaries. It’s also the closest gage in continuous operation to the highly populated Humble/Kingwood corridor. That’s where the vast majority of Lake Houston Area damage occurred during Harvey.
Only eight floods have ever exceeded 80,000 CFS at US59.
They occurred on:
8/28/17 (Harvey)
10/18/94 (Previous Record Flood)
11/26/40
5/31/29
5/29/16 (Memorial Day)
11/15/98
5/7/35
4/21/16 (Tax Day)
Note: three of these events happened before the construction of Lake Conroe in 1973. All since the advent of Lake Conroe flooded West Fork structures.
One Statistic Addresses Host of Issues
This observation (ninth largest flood by itself) addresses a host of issues raised by Lake Conroe people about lowering the lake seasonally to create a buffer against downstream flooding. They contend that:
In the grand scheme of things, the Lake Conroe release during Harvey had an insignificant impact on flooding in the Humble/Kingwood area.
Kingwood always floods.
Imelda proves that Kingwood will flood even when Conroe is not releasing water.
There’s no need to create extra storage capacity to offset future floods.
Since Lake Conroe was built, West Fork flooding has exceeded the release rate during Harvey only five times – and one of those was Harvey itself. So Kingwood does NOT always flood.
During Imelda, the discharge of the West Fork, Spring Creek and Cypress Creek put together was about 35,000 CFS at US59. That’s far less than half of the Harvey release from Lake Conroe alone. All of the headline-grabbing rains during Imelda happened on the East Fork. Claiming Imelda proves Kingwood will flood regardless of what Lake Conroe does is a “red herring” – a logical fallacy intended to deceive.
Lowering Lake Conroe two feet in advance of another Harvey will probably not make much of a difference. Likewise, lowering it two feet in advance of 1-inch rain would be unnecessary. The real value happens somewhere between those extremes in a 10-, 25-, 50- or perhaps even a 100-year storm. Somewhere along that spectrum, we will get enough rain to perhaps flood homes, but we’ll also have enough extra lake capacity to avoid actually flooding them.
We just don’t know where that point is right now. Jing Chen, the engineer with Harris County Flood Control managing the San Jacinto River Basin Study says that project will not be far enough along to model those scenarios until August of this year.
Increasing Upstream Detention Capacity: A Proven Flood Mitigation Strategy
According to Matt Zeve, Deputy Executive Director of Harris County Flood Control, holding water upstream is a proven flood mitigation strategy. Engineers in the Houston area created upstream detention more than 80 years ago with the Barker and Addicks reservoirs. Braes Bayou now has five different detention areas; White Oak Bayou has five with another under construction.
Such detention areas collect water during a storm and then release it slowly after a flood passes.
The extra storage capacity created by lowering Lake Conroe 1-2 feet works the same way. The idea: to reduce the amount and/or rate of water released during a flood to help avoid downstream property damage.
SJRA Mission and Lake Conroe History Includes Flood Prevention
It shows the SJRA considered building 20 dams that year.
So far it has built only one: Lake Conroe.
Therefore, Lake Conroe is currently the only way we have to mitigate flooding until we put other mitigation measures in place.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/23/2020
877 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Note: A reader’s question on Facebook prompted this post. But I can’t find his name now. My apologies. No offense intended.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Peak-Inflows-During-Harvey.jpg?fit=1500%2C1157&ssl=111571500adminadmin2020-01-23 18:51:562020-01-23 19:49:21By Itself, Lake Conroe Discharge During Harvey Among Top Ten West Fork Floods of All Time
Tuesday, the SJRA Board met to reconsider lowering Lake Conroe seasonally. Many Lake Houston Area residents there to testify felt bullied by the large and boisterous crowd of Lake Conroe residents. This is another story of bullying. It’s about how a young man with autism who was traumatized by flooding during Hurricane Harvey fought his way back. He’s now taking up the fight to continue lowering Lake Conroe seasonally. Below: the text of a letter he wrote to the SJRA Board. It took courage for Ryan to share this letter with the world. Spoiler alert: Keep a Kleenex handy as you read this. It’s inspirational.
My name is Ryan Long and I am a 15-year-old from Kingwood. In August of 2017, when I was 12, my home flooded after the release of water from Lake Conroe. We do NOT live on a flood plain, and we NEVER had flooding in our neighborhood until the middle of the night of August 27th during Harvey.
Foster’s Mill, where I live, had no warning to evacuate. When flood water came, the current was so great that regular boats could not get down my street to rescue people. Helicopters flew in all day and rescued people from roofs.
Rescued by USAF Special Forces
We were finally rescued in the evening on a boat by a Special Forces team from the U.S. Air Force, hours after flood waters came into our home. I, my family, and my community will feel the impact for years to come.
Harvey photo courtesy of Ryan Long
I have autism and am classified as “high-functioning.” Before Harvey, I loved school. But due to the Lake Conroe release during Harvey, I lost years of therapy and a year of schooling.
As I woke up on the third day of the storm, power had gone out. When I opened my curtain, I saw a river rushing right outside my home; the water so deep it was about to seep into my downstairs. I panicked and ran to my parents! As the day wore on, I watched as water crept in our home like a slowly rising tide until the Special Forces evacuated us.
Harvey photo courtesy of Ryan Long
Descent into Darkness
Our journey out was rough. The destruction I saw traumatized me. I felt broken. Every day, I felt anxious. The first time it rained, I hid under a desk, certain it would happen all over again. I slept with the lights on at night. Darkness felt like a Halloween horror movie. School became traumatic. Walking down a crowded hall felt as if I were caught in a cage. Kids began to pick on me about my panic attacks. I isolated myself, even from friends.
I could not figure out how to ask for help. I felt frantic when taking tests. I could not concentrate. My grades, a source of pride, began to suffer. Even with the help of teachers who recognized the problem, I still failed.
The Long Road Back
My parents found a counselor who helped me find a way back. She talked to me about things I loved. Eventually, I started listening to her. Slowly, she taught me strategies to cope. She helped me overcome fears and taught me how not to feel so lost. My grades improved, and I learned to sleep in the dark again.
Harvey photo courtesy of Ryan Long
However, I was still struggling with kids who frequently bullied me. After a particularly brutal, physical incident, I found the courage to stand up for myself and reported the incident – despite fear of retribution.
At first, I wondered what changed that day. I finally found the courage to believe in myself. I started doing things with my friends again. And I finished the year with straight A’s.
It took more than a year before I learned to believe in myself again. Today, I am still anxious at times. I still do not like thunderstorms. And I still struggle occasionally on tests. But I no longer think I am too stupid to do the work. But I believe in myself. Harvey did not break me. I came out better in the end. But that doesn’t mean I want to go through it again.
Still Dealing with Anxiety
People not living with the repercussions of Harvey tend to forget what happened. They expect the trauma and damage to go away as soon as homes are repaired. However, two and a half years later I still have anxiety.
My home is fixed but others on my street and many in my community are not. People still live on second floors with their downstairs in disarray. Other homes are abandoned. Many people are frightened when it rains. My mom has panic attacks when she hears helicopters. Damage – both physical and emotional – lingers on.
Harvey photo courtesy of Ryan Long
So, what does this have to do with the SJRA and the people of Lake Conroe? I beg you to remember that there are people and lives that have been devastated by flooding downstream. We ask that you continue the seasonal lowering of Lake Conroe until the flood mitigation can be completed on Lake Houston.
Thank you for listening.
Sincerely,
Ryan Long
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/23/2020with grateful thanks and best wishes to Ryan Long
877 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/RyanLong3.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-01-22 21:03:352020-01-22 21:06:58Flooded 15-Year-Old With Autism Fights for Lowering Lake Conroe
The SJRA held its second of three board meetings last night to consider public input on its temporary policy of lowering Lake Conroe seasonally. Once again, red-shirted protesters from Lake Conroe showed up in busloads. About 50 people from the Lake Houston Area made it to the meeting. Lake Conroe people outnumbered them by an estimated 25:1. See below.
Lake Conroe people in red shirts vastly outnumbered Lake Houston people in the white, clustered in a corner.
Lake Houston People Forced to Wait up to Four Hours to Speak
With the exception of several Lake Houston Area officials who spoke early, the vast majority of Lake Houston Area residents had to wait three to four hours for their 3 minutes at the microphone. Many had to leave before they got their chance to speak. Sadly, I knew what they planned to talk about. The SJRA needed to hear it; Lake Conroe residents needed to hear it, too. But neither group did.
Lake Conroe Residents Still Laboring Under Misinformation
But virtually all of the rest seemed unrestrained by facts or issues.
For instance, SJRA staff told the crowd upfront that one third of the water coming down the West Fork came from the Lake Conroe release. At least twenty Lake Conroe residents then got up and claimed that 14% of the water coming into Lake Houston was from the release. Statistical subterfuge!
While technically true, that distorts the picture. The SJRA has no control over East Fork water. The lake-lowering policy is designed to reduce West Fork damage.
Ripley’s Believe It or Not
Here are some more:
“Lake Conroe had nothing to do with flooding Kingwood.” (Why were most areas dry then until Lake Conroe water hit town?)
“If Kingwood people don’t want to flood, they shouldn’t buy homes in a flood plain.” (As if everyone who flooded was in a flood plain.)
“There’s no proof that lowering Lake Conroe will help prevent flooding in Kingwood.” (The SJRA’s flood mitigation manager had just given a presentation explaining when it did.)
Six Inches Killing A 79′ Deep Lake
And then there were outright exaggerations. Staff explained that evaporation normally lowered Lake Conroe to within six inches of target levels in spring and hurricane season. That means, they’re really only lowering the lake intentionally another six inches! That’s as deep as a glass of ice tea. But still, scores of Lake Conroe residents steadfastly claimed that intentionally lowering the lake another six inches was “destroying”:
The environment
Montgomery County’s tax base
Recreation
The lake
The county’s school system
Home values
Safety on the lake
Bass fishing
Lake Conroe is normally 79 feet deep at its deepest point.
Adding Insult to Injury
Lake Conroe residents repeatedly blamed Kingwood residents for not whipping the City of Houston into shape and getting it to act faster. They blamed Harris County Flood Control for dragging its feet and not spending its flood bond money fast enough. Incredibly, they denied that people died after the Lake Conroe release hit Kingwood. They even heckled State Rep. Dan Huberty and interrupted other Kingwood speakers.
All in all, it was more fun than a firing squad.
Sadly, I don’t think many, or even any, of those who talked had any idea of the real devastation that happened in Kingwood.
There has to be a better way to discuss these issues.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/22/2020
876 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/SJRA-Board-Mtg-1.21.2020.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-01-22 00:52:072020-01-22 01:13:06Lake Conroe Swamps Lake Houston Again
By Itself, Lake Conroe Discharge During Harvey Among Top Ten West Fork Floods of All Time
The roughly 80,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) Lake Conroe discharged at the peak of Harvey would have created the ninth largest flood in West Fork History – all by itself. Only eight floods ever had higher “discharge” rates AND those all included floodwaters from other tributaries, such as Lake Creek, Spring Creek, Cypress Creek and numerous drainage ditches.
Discharge is the volume of water flowing past a point on a stream. Discharge from a dam would be the volume flowing past the gates.
The discharge during Harvey is important because residents fighting the seasonal lowering of Lake Conroe claim the impact of the release on Humble and Kingwood was insignificant.
Question I Asked Flood Control
So I asked Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control meteorologist, this simple question. “Assuming not a drop of rain fell in any other of the West Fork tributaries, where would that 80,000 CFS have ranked among the history of West Fork floods?” I then asked him to base his analysis on the West Fork gage at US59. It combines water from ALL upstream West Fork tributaries. It’s also the closest gage in continuous operation to the highly populated Humble/Kingwood corridor. That’s where the vast majority of Lake Houston Area damage occurred during Harvey.
They occurred on:
Note: three of these events happened before the construction of Lake Conroe in 1973. All since the advent of Lake Conroe flooded West Fork structures.
One Statistic Addresses Host of Issues
This observation (ninth largest flood by itself) addresses a host of issues raised by Lake Conroe people about lowering the lake seasonally to create a buffer against downstream flooding. They contend that:
What Records Really Show
On the contrary:
Will Two Feet Matter?
Lowering Lake Conroe two feet in advance of another Harvey will probably not make much of a difference. Likewise, lowering it two feet in advance of 1-inch rain would be unnecessary. The real value happens somewhere between those extremes in a 10-, 25-, 50- or perhaps even a 100-year storm. Somewhere along that spectrum, we will get enough rain to perhaps flood homes, but we’ll also have enough extra lake capacity to avoid actually flooding them.
We just don’t know where that point is right now. Jing Chen, the engineer with Harris County Flood Control managing the San Jacinto River Basin Study says that project will not be far enough along to model those scenarios until August of this year.
However, the SJRA feels the lower lake levels did help avoid flooding between Humble and Kingwood in May of last year. I concur. It’s also possible that the two foot lowering might create enough of a buffer to have avoided flooding many homes along the West Fork during the Tax and Memorial Day floods in 2016. Perhaps it wouldn’t have saved them all. But it might have avoided flooding many at the periphery of a flood.
Increasing Upstream Detention Capacity: A Proven Flood Mitigation Strategy
According to Matt Zeve, Deputy Executive Director of Harris County Flood Control, holding water upstream is a proven flood mitigation strategy. Engineers in the Houston area created upstream detention more than 80 years ago with the Barker and Addicks reservoirs. Braes Bayou now has five different detention areas; White Oak Bayou has five with another under construction.
The extra storage capacity created by lowering Lake Conroe 1-2 feet works the same way. The idea: to reduce the amount and/or rate of water released during a flood to help avoid downstream property damage.
SJRA Mission and Lake Conroe History Includes Flood Prevention
The enabling legislation of the SJRA mentions flood prevention three times. Moreover, the area now occupied by Lake Conroe was considered for floodwater detention as early as 1957, as this Master Plan for the SJRA that year shows – i.e., on the map below. Many of these proposed lakes/reservoirs serve a dual purpose according to Zeve. They help prevent floods AND supply water.
This map puts to rest another rumor spread by the Lake Conroe Association. They claim Lake Conroe was never conceived as a flood control reservoir; it is strictly a water supply reservoir. See the discussion of flood control starting on page 16 of the 1957 Master Plan. Then on page 27, see Exhibit A.
So far it has built only one: Lake Conroe.
Therefore, Lake Conroe is currently the only way we have to mitigate flooding until we put other mitigation measures in place.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/23/2020
877 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Note: A reader’s question on Facebook prompted this post. But I can’t find his name now. My apologies. No offense intended.
Flooded 15-Year-Old With Autism Fights for Lowering Lake Conroe
Tuesday, the SJRA Board met to reconsider lowering Lake Conroe seasonally. Many Lake Houston Area residents there to testify felt bullied by the large and boisterous crowd of Lake Conroe residents. This is another story of bullying. It’s about how a young man with autism who was traumatized by flooding during Hurricane Harvey fought his way back. He’s now taking up the fight to continue lowering Lake Conroe seasonally. Below: the text of a letter he wrote to the SJRA Board. It took courage for Ryan to share this letter with the world. Spoiler alert: Keep a Kleenex handy as you read this. It’s inspirational.
Ryan Long’s Letter to the SJRA Board
From: Ryan Long, Kingwood, TX 77345
To: SJRA Board, P. O. Box 329, Conroe, Texas 77305
Dear SJRA,
My name is Ryan Long and I am a 15-year-old from Kingwood. In August of 2017, when I was 12, my home flooded after the release of water from Lake Conroe. We do NOT live on a flood plain, and we NEVER had flooding in our neighborhood until the middle of the night of August 27th during Harvey.
Foster’s Mill, where I live, had no warning to evacuate. When flood water came, the current was so great that regular boats could not get down my street to rescue people. Helicopters flew in all day and rescued people from roofs.
Rescued by USAF Special Forces
We were finally rescued in the evening on a boat by a Special Forces team from the U.S. Air Force, hours after flood waters came into our home. I, my family, and my community will feel the impact for years to come.
I have autism and am classified as “high-functioning.” Before Harvey, I loved school. But due to the Lake Conroe release during Harvey, I lost years of therapy and a year of schooling.
As I woke up on the third day of the storm, power had gone out. When I opened my curtain, I saw a river rushing right outside my home; the water so deep it was about to seep into my downstairs. I panicked and ran to my parents! As the day wore on, I watched as water crept in our home like a slowly rising tide until the Special Forces evacuated us.
Descent into Darkness
Our journey out was rough. The destruction I saw traumatized me. I felt broken. Every day, I felt anxious. The first time it rained, I hid under a desk, certain it would happen all over again. I slept with the lights on at night. Darkness felt like a Halloween horror movie. School became traumatic. Walking down a crowded hall felt as if I were caught in a cage. Kids began to pick on me about my panic attacks. I isolated myself, even from friends.
I could not figure out how to ask for help. I felt frantic when taking tests. I could not concentrate. My grades, a source of pride, began to suffer. Even with the help of teachers who recognized the problem, I still failed.
The Long Road Back
My parents found a counselor who helped me find a way back. She talked to me about things I loved. Eventually, I started listening to her. Slowly, she taught me strategies to cope. She helped me overcome fears and taught me how not to feel so lost. My grades improved, and I learned to sleep in the dark again.
However, I was still struggling with kids who frequently bullied me. After a particularly brutal, physical incident, I found the courage to stand up for myself and reported the incident – despite fear of retribution.
At first, I wondered what changed that day. I finally found the courage to believe in myself. I started doing things with my friends again. And I finished the year with straight A’s.
It took more than a year before I learned to believe in myself again. Today, I am still anxious at times. I still do not like thunderstorms. And I still struggle occasionally on tests. But I no longer think I am too stupid to do the work. But I believe in myself. Harvey did not break me. I came out better in the end. But that doesn’t mean I want to go through it again.
Still Dealing with Anxiety
People not living with the repercussions of Harvey tend to forget what happened. They expect the trauma and damage to go away as soon as homes are repaired. However, two and a half years later I still have anxiety.
My home is fixed but others on my street and many in my community are not. People still live on second floors with their downstairs in disarray. Other homes are abandoned. Many people are frightened when it rains. My mom has panic attacks when she hears helicopters. Damage – both physical and emotional – lingers on.
So, what does this have to do with the SJRA and the people of Lake Conroe? I beg you to remember that there are people and lives that have been devastated by flooding downstream. We ask that you continue the seasonal lowering of Lake Conroe until the flood mitigation can be completed on Lake Houston.
Thank you for listening.
Sincerely,
Ryan Long
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/23/2020 with grateful thanks and best wishes to Ryan Long
877 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Lake Conroe Swamps Lake Houston Again
The SJRA held its second of three board meetings last night to consider public input on its temporary policy of lowering Lake Conroe seasonally. Once again, red-shirted protesters from Lake Conroe showed up in busloads. About 50 people from the Lake Houston Area made it to the meeting. Lake Conroe people outnumbered them by an estimated 25:1. See below.
Lake Houston People Forced to Wait up to Four Hours to Speak
With the exception of several Lake Houston Area officials who spoke early, the vast majority of Lake Houston Area residents had to wait three to four hours for their 3 minutes at the microphone. Many had to leave before they got their chance to speak. Sadly, I knew what they planned to talk about. The SJRA needed to hear it; Lake Conroe residents needed to hear it, too. But neither group did.
Lake Conroe Residents Still Laboring Under Misinformation
During those three to four hours, scores of Lake Conroe residents took the mic to spout misinformation. The Lake Conroe Association fed them exaggerations, lies, and half-truths designed to whip them into a hysterical frenzy. To be fair, several told poignant personal stories about businesses that suffered at the shallow north end of the lake. A realtor mentioned that homes there were on the market longer and some were not getting their asking price.
But virtually all of the rest seemed unrestrained by facts or issues.
For instance, SJRA staff told the crowd upfront that one third of the water coming down the West Fork came from the Lake Conroe release. At least twenty Lake Conroe residents then got up and claimed that 14% of the water coming into Lake Houston was from the release. Statistical subterfuge!
While technically true, that distorts the picture. The SJRA has no control over East Fork water. The lake-lowering policy is designed to reduce West Fork damage.
Ripley’s Believe It or Not
Here are some more:
Six Inches Killing A 79′ Deep Lake
And then there were outright exaggerations. Staff explained that evaporation normally lowered Lake Conroe to within six inches of target levels in spring and hurricane season. That means, they’re really only lowering the lake intentionally another six inches! That’s as deep as a glass of ice tea. But still, scores of Lake Conroe residents steadfastly claimed that intentionally lowering the lake another six inches was “destroying”:
Lake Conroe is normally 79 feet deep at its deepest point.
Adding Insult to Injury
Lake Conroe residents repeatedly blamed Kingwood residents for not whipping the City of Houston into shape and getting it to act faster. They blamed Harris County Flood Control for dragging its feet and not spending its flood bond money fast enough. Incredibly, they denied that people died after the Lake Conroe release hit Kingwood. They even heckled State Rep. Dan Huberty and interrupted other Kingwood speakers.
Sadly, I don’t think many, or even any, of those who talked had any idea of the real devastation that happened in Kingwood.
There has to be a better way to discuss these issues.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/22/2020
876 Days after Hurricane Harvey