On Wednesday, Perry Homes resumed construction on the Woodridge Village Site in two areas: adjacent to the N2 detention pond and along Woodland Hills Drive. Today, we know more about the nature of the construction activity next to N2 thanks to receipt of construction plans from Montgomery County on Thursday morning. The plans were part of a Freedom of Information Act Request.
N2 Detention Pond Expanding North and East
The new plans show an expansion of the N2 pond to the north and the east. In the satellite image below, “A” represents the original N2 pond which Montgomery County built 15 years ago. “B” represents the approximate expansion area which will be about 8 to 10 feet deep.
A = Original N2 Pond. B = Expansion Area.
City of Houston approved the plans on 3/17/2020, according to this inspection report dated 3/30. Montgomery County approved them the same day according to the County Engineer’s stamp on the plans. Below, see what the same area looked like from a helicopter before construction started.
“Work” indicates where excavation started on Wednesday.Excavation in the area labeled “N2” pre-datesPerry’s ownership of the land.
See below what the N2 area area looked like on Good Friday morning, two days AFTER construction started. Compared to the photo above, contractors took out the crescent shaped row of trees on Thursday. They also started excavating the expansion area.
Looking south at N2.Note: trees are gone. Expansion area is about one-quarter to one-third excavated in two days. See pond in upper left.Photo courtesy Matt Swint.
Part of the dirt from this excavation work went to fill in former wetland areas in the foreground of the image above.
Here’s the same area looking west from a vantage point farther south over Taylor Gully.The area between the old pond and the expansion area still needs excavation.Photo courtesy Matt Swint.Height of excavator is about equal to depth of pond.Water in pond is due to a one-inch rain late yesterday.Photo looking west courtesy of Matt Swint.Layout of subdivision immediately north and south of triangular-shaped N2.
Also Filling Low Area Along Woodland Hills
“A” represents N2 and the expansion area. “B” is the area along Woodland Hills where other contractors used part of the excavated dirt to fill in boggy areas.This shows new fill in Area B from photo above.
Two reports (Wednesday and yesterday) from other sources suggested that Harris County was responsible for this work. However, a call to Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle’s assistant this morning indicated the County is NOT involved in this construction activity.
I counted six pieces of equipment on the southern section of Woodridge and at least 12 on the northern section, including those above. By my count, that’s a record. I’ve never seen so much earth-moving equipment on this site at one time.
Listing Sign Still Up
A sign at the Woodland Hills entrance today indicated that the Perry property is still listed for sale.
Due to the Easter weekend, with most staff off, Commissioner Cagle’s office could not reply today about the status of negotiations with Montgomery County, the City of Houston, and Perry Homes to purchase the property.
The City and MoCo previously approved plans for N1 and N3, two other detention ponds on the northern section of Woodridge Village. Contractors have not yet started excavating those.
Looking south on eastern boundary toward Elm Grove, where the N3 detention pond will go. Work has not yet started here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/10/2020 with help from Matt Swint
955 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 204 after Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/20200410-RJR_0492.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-04-10 21:06:182020-04-11 07:01:27Perry Homes Expanding N2 Detention Pond on Woodridge Village Site; Also Building Up Low Areas
Some recommended reading. I just finished rereading a book, published in 2017, called The Ostrich Paradox. It examines why we habitually under-prepare for disasters. Why do some people, for instance:
Fail to heed hurricane evacuation warnings?
Buy homes in flood zones without flood insurance?
Ride motorcycles without helmets?
Think they’re immune to pandemics?
Why Instinct Sometimes Overrules Reason
This book explains innate cognitive biases that often cause instinct to overrule reason.
To illustrate these biases, the authors look at a specific subset of decisions involving risks, such as flooding and earthquakes. The probability of such disasters is extremely low but the consequences extremely high. These represent rare threats for which we have little stored knowledge.
The book focuses on six cognitive biases that the authors characterize as “Our Innate Engineering.” Those biases influence our decision making in such cases.
Myopia – A tendency to focus on “here and now” costs when appraising the value of long-term protective investments. “I’m really going to have to scrimp to afford that flood insurance for a flood that may never come in my lifetime.”
Amnesia – A tendency to forget too quickly the pain of past disasters. “Harvey was two years ago. I don’t want to worry about flood mitigation now. It just reminds me of the pain.”
Optimism – A tendency to underestimate losses that could result from rare, future hazards. “Harvey was a 1000-year storm. You can’t plan for one of those.”
Inertia – A tendency to maintain the status quo or chose a default option when making difficult decisions with a high level of uncertainty. “I just can’t figure out whether these new flood maps are valid. I’m not going to buy that flood insurance now.”
Simplification – A tendency to examine a subset of factors when making complex choices involving high risk. “I never flooded before, even during Harvey. Why buy flood insurance now?”
Herding – A tendency to base choices on what people around you are doing. “None of my neighbors have flood insurance. Why should I?”
Finding Ways to Overcome Your Biases
The theory behind the book: that by recognizing our own cognitive biases, we may be able to overcome them.
After the introduction, the authors divide the book into two main parts.
The first devotes a chapter to each of the biases. Within each chapter they give dozens of examples and present academic studies that illustrate the difficulty people have making rational choices about these rare events.
The second devotes three chapters to strategies that can help us overcome them.
About the Authors
The authors are two professors from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania: Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther. They both specialize in risk management and decision processes. Wharton ranks as one of the nation’s leading business schools.
The writing can get dense at times. It’s not for the feint of heart or the casually interested. Primary audiences include academics, insurance executives, government leaders, policy makers, emergency preparedness planners, etc.
Afternoon Read That Could Make You a Better Decision Maker
That said, with enough coffee, most people could wade through this in an afternoon during the virus lockdown and get a lot out of it. It’s available for $1.99 as an e-book from Amazon.
The primary value: it helps us understand HOW we think so that we can understand WHY we make the decisions we do.
As I read it, I found myself replaying some of my own past decisions and recognizing myself in several examples. I also reflected on the dozens of flood victims I have interviewed who replayed similar arguments…with regret.
The Ostrich Paradox may help make you a better decision maker. Or help you convince other people to make better decisions.
For instance, do you have a family member who thinks he or she is immune to the corona virus?
That said, I will pass along some wisdom from an ER Nurse, based on real life examples. “Now’s not the time to learn how to ride an ATV, use a chainsaw or climb a ladder.”
Stay in. Stay safe. Stay healthy.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/9/2020
954 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Ostrich-Paradox-1.jpg?fit=324%2C500&ssl=1500324adminadmin2020-04-09 15:05:112020-04-09 15:05:22The Ostrich Paradox: Why We Habitually Under-prepare for Disasters
Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle and HCFCD had hoped to create a large scale detention basin to reduce Elm Grove and East Fork flooding. The resumption of construction makes that less likely now.
Reports Start Flowing In of Massive Construction Activity
All morning, I received reports of construction activity on the site. Near Woodland Hills. Near the N2 detention pond. Near the Webb Street entrance in Porter.
I also found this record of a City of Houston inspection dated 3/9/2020. It stated that work on the additional detention ponds was supposed to start on 3/16. It didn’t.
But Elm Grove resident Jeff Miller informed me today that Perry had started mobilizing construction equipment last week (see below) near the N1 pond. Thus, all the evidence started to support the theory that Perry was just executing the next phase of its promise to the Mayor when Commissioners failed to reach agreement last night.
Equipment staged near site of N1 Detention Pond on Perry Homes’ Woodridge Village. Photo taken 4/6/2020 by Jeff Miller.
Promises and Construction Activity Not Adding Up
One thing doesn’t quite add up, however – wherethe contractor started working today.
If Perry was fulfilling its promises to Turner, workers should have been excavating detention ponds. But they worked elsewhere, in planned residential areas near Woodland Hills Drive and adjacent to, but not in, the N2 detention pond.
N2 Detention Pond is second pond in northern section at SW corner. See triangular area in center and compare to photo below.
If Perry intended to work on the N2 Detention pond, they were in the wrong place.What were they doing?
The area labeled N2 in the photo above looks as though it has already been excavated. It was. By Montgomery County 15 years ago. Most likely as offsite detention for another project. According to plans, Perry was supposed to deepen this area to increase detention capacity. It has not yet done so. And that may have contributed to Elm Grove flooding.
However, instead of starting to deepen the pond today, or excavate N1 as Perry’s letter suggested they would, workers appeared to focus elsewhere. They worked on the other side of the tree line that separates N2 from the residential area. See above and below.
Shooting in a southerly direction toward the end of the crescent-shaped line of trees above. Note how excavation is taking place in front of the trees, not behind them.This work is not in the planned N2 pond, it’s in an area that was planned for residential.As I left the area, more equipment arrivedat Webb Street entrance.Construction activity was also evident near Woodland Hills Drive opposite Kingwood Park High School.
More Theories Than Answers At This Point
There’s no telling what’s going on. LJA, Perry and the City have not returned calls. The County was strangely silent today when notified of the construction activity.
If Perry planned to extend the N2 pond behind the trees all along, why did they leave the trees when they cleared and grubbed the rest of the site?
Why are they working by Woodland Hills?
Did Perry skip to Item #6 (swales) on their lawyer’s letter to the City?
Why did they not start with Pond N1 as their letter suggested?
Have they given up on a deal with the county or a sale to private interests?
Have they abandoned their promises to the Mayor?
Are they forging ahead with construction of their development?
Are they playing poker with the County?
Or are they just trying to get more detention capacity in before the rainy season starts?
Actions Reveal Intent More than Words
Regardless of the answers, there’s a truth to actions that’s often obscured by words.
The location of construction activity makes it appear that Perry has decided to forge ahead with the development of Woodridge Village.
Unfortunately, that could make a potential deal more remote. That will add to cost that Perry likely demands for a deal. Perhaps millions. And cost formed the primary barrier to consummating a deal last night.
Worse yet, there’s no assurance that anything Perry is currently doing to the site will further HCFCD’s goals for the property.
If there was an innocent explanation for all this, no one volunteered it Wednesday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/8/2020 with help from Jeff Miller
953 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 202 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/20200408-RJR_0466.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-04-08 22:59:202020-04-09 15:31:47Perry Homes Resumes Construction of Woodridge Village Day After County Commissioners Fail to Reach Deal
Perry Homes Expanding N2 Detention Pond on Woodridge Village Site; Also Building Up Low Areas
On Wednesday, Perry Homes resumed construction on the Woodridge Village Site in two areas: adjacent to the N2 detention pond and along Woodland Hills Drive. Today, we know more about the nature of the construction activity next to N2 thanks to receipt of construction plans from Montgomery County on Thursday morning. The plans were part of a Freedom of Information Act Request.
N2 Detention Pond Expanding North and East
The new plans show an expansion of the N2 pond to the north and the east. In the satellite image below, “A” represents the original N2 pond which Montgomery County built 15 years ago. “B” represents the approximate expansion area which will be about 8 to 10 feet deep.
City of Houston approved the plans on 3/17/2020, according to this inspection report dated 3/30. Montgomery County approved them the same day according to the County Engineer’s stamp on the plans. Below, see what the same area looked like from a helicopter before construction started.
See below what the N2 area area looked like on Good Friday morning, two days AFTER construction started. Compared to the photo above, contractors took out the crescent shaped row of trees on Thursday. They also started excavating the expansion area.
Part of the dirt from this excavation work went to fill in former wetland areas in the foreground of the image above.
Also Filling Low Area Along Woodland Hills
Two reports (Wednesday and yesterday) from other sources suggested that Harris County was responsible for this work. However, a call to Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle’s assistant this morning indicated the County is NOT involved in this construction activity.
New Contractors On Job
Plans show that detention pond N1 will eventually go where these trucks are now parked.
I counted six pieces of equipment on the southern section of Woodridge and at least 12 on the northern section, including those above. By my count, that’s a record. I’ve never seen so much earth-moving equipment on this site at one time.
Listing Sign Still Up
A sign at the Woodland Hills entrance today indicated that the Perry property is still listed for sale.
Due to the Easter weekend, with most staff off, Commissioner Cagle’s office could not reply today about the status of negotiations with Montgomery County, the City of Houston, and Perry Homes to purchase the property.
In their meeting Tuesday, Harris County commissioners discussed trying to negotiate Atlas-14 compliance and closure of the “beat the peak” loophole with Montgomery County. As a contribution from the City, they also requested land in lieu of cash to help defray costs on other Flood Control projects.
Two More Detention Ponds Planned But Not Started
The City and MoCo previously approved plans for N1 and N3, two other detention ponds on the northern section of Woodridge Village. Contractors have not yet started excavating those.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/10/2020 with help from Matt Swint
955 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 204 after Imelda
The Ostrich Paradox: Why We Habitually Under-prepare for Disasters
Some recommended reading. I just finished rereading a book, published in 2017, called The Ostrich Paradox. It examines why we habitually under-prepare for disasters. Why do some people, for instance:
Why Instinct Sometimes Overrules Reason
To illustrate these biases, the authors look at a specific subset of decisions involving risks, such as flooding and earthquakes. The probability of such disasters is extremely low but the consequences extremely high. These represent rare threats for which we have little stored knowledge.
Six Innate Cognitive Biases
The book focuses on six cognitive biases that the authors characterize as “Our Innate Engineering.” Those biases influence our decision making in such cases.
Myopia – A tendency to focus on “here and now” costs when appraising the value of long-term protective investments. “I’m really going to have to scrimp to afford that flood insurance for a flood that may never come in my lifetime.”
Amnesia – A tendency to forget too quickly the pain of past disasters. “Harvey was two years ago. I don’t want to worry about flood mitigation now. It just reminds me of the pain.”
Optimism – A tendency to underestimate losses that could result from rare, future hazards. “Harvey was a 1000-year storm. You can’t plan for one of those.”
Inertia – A tendency to maintain the status quo or chose a default option when making difficult decisions with a high level of uncertainty. “I just can’t figure out whether these new flood maps are valid. I’m not going to buy that flood insurance now.”
Simplification – A tendency to examine a subset of factors when making complex choices involving high risk. “I never flooded before, even during Harvey. Why buy flood insurance now?”
Herding – A tendency to base choices on what people around you are doing. “None of my neighbors have flood insurance. Why should I?”
Finding Ways to Overcome Your Biases
The theory behind the book: that by recognizing our own cognitive biases, we may be able to overcome them.
After the introduction, the authors divide the book into two main parts.
The first devotes a chapter to each of the biases. Within each chapter they give dozens of examples and present academic studies that illustrate the difficulty people have making rational choices about these rare events.
The second devotes three chapters to strategies that can help us overcome them.
About the Authors
The authors are two professors from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania: Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther. They both specialize in risk management and decision processes. Wharton ranks as one of the nation’s leading business schools.
The writing can get dense at times. It’s not for the feint of heart or the casually interested. Primary audiences include academics, insurance executives, government leaders, policy makers, emergency preparedness planners, etc.
Afternoon Read That Could Make You a Better Decision Maker
That said, with enough coffee, most people could wade through this in an afternoon during the virus lockdown and get a lot out of it. It’s available for $1.99 as an e-book from Amazon.
As I read it, I found myself replaying some of my own past decisions and recognizing myself in several examples. I also reflected on the dozens of flood victims I have interviewed who replayed similar arguments…with regret.
The Ostrich Paradox may help make you a better decision maker. Or help you convince other people to make better decisions.
For instance, do you have a family member who thinks he or she is immune to the corona virus?
That said, I will pass along some wisdom from an ER Nurse, based on real life examples. “Now’s not the time to learn how to ride an ATV, use a chainsaw or climb a ladder.”
Stay in. Stay safe. Stay healthy.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/9/2020
954 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Perry Homes Resumes Construction of Woodridge Village Day After County Commissioners Fail to Reach Deal
In March, the City of Houston publicly refused to participate financially in any purchase of Perry Homes’ Woodridge Village property. Perry Homes then gave other parties still negotiating (i.e., Harris County) an end-of-month deadline. Perry extended that a week when it appeared that Harris County Commissioners might come up with the cash. However, when the Commissioners failed to reach agreement late last night, Perry resumed construction Wednesday morning.
Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle and HCFCD had hoped to create a large scale detention basin to reduce Elm Grove and East Fork flooding. The resumption of construction makes that less likely now.
Reports Start Flowing In of Massive Construction Activity
All morning, I received reports of construction activity on the site. Near Woodland Hills. Near the N2 detention pond. Near the Webb Street entrance in Porter.
It’s hard to imagine how Perry could react so fast. Then it occurred to me. Maybe they didn’t. Maybe this was in response to promises they made to Mayor Turner last October.
Perry’s Promise to the City
In February, I reported that LJA Engineering was soliciting bids to build the additional detention ponds for Perry mentioned in the letter above. Here is the invitation to bidders.
I also found this record of a City of Houston inspection dated 3/9/2020. It stated that work on the additional detention ponds was supposed to start on 3/16. It didn’t.
But Elm Grove resident Jeff Miller informed me today that Perry had started mobilizing construction equipment last week (see below) near the N1 pond. Thus, all the evidence started to support the theory that Perry was just executing the next phase of its promise to the Mayor when Commissioners failed to reach agreement last night.
Promises and Construction Activity Not Adding Up
One thing doesn’t quite add up, however – where the contractor started working today.
Here are the approved plans for the N2 Detention Pond.
The area labeled N2 in the photo above looks as though it has already been excavated. It was. By Montgomery County 15 years ago. Most likely as offsite detention for another project. According to plans, Perry was supposed to deepen this area to increase detention capacity. It has not yet done so. And that may have contributed to Elm Grove flooding.
However, instead of starting to deepen the pond today, or excavate N1 as Perry’s letter suggested they would, workers appeared to focus elsewhere. They worked on the other side of the tree line that separates N2 from the residential area. See above and below.
More Theories Than Answers At This Point
There’s no telling what’s going on. LJA, Perry and the City have not returned calls. The County was strangely silent today when notified of the construction activity.
Actions Reveal Intent More than Words
Regardless of the answers, there’s a truth to actions that’s often obscured by words.
Unfortunately, that could make a potential deal more remote. That will add to cost that Perry likely demands for a deal. Perhaps millions. And cost formed the primary barrier to consummating a deal last night.
Worse yet, there’s no assurance that anything Perry is currently doing to the site will further HCFCD’s goals for the property.
If there was an innocent explanation for all this, no one volunteered it Wednesday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/8/2020 with help from Jeff Miller
953 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 202 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.