Reasons: unusually warm seawater in the Atlantic and the likely LACK of an El Niño in the Pacific. El Niño in the Pacific usually sets up wind shear that tears apart storms in the Atlantic. Said another way, they help keep tropical storms from developing into full-force hurricanes. But without El Niño, the lack of shear allows more storms to develop and creates active hurricane seasons.
Source: NOAA, From April 2, 2020. Shows most of Atlantic has above-normal sea-surface temps, and that temps immediately offshore the upper Texas and Louisiana Coasts are now 4-5 degrees above normal.
CSU predicts 18 named storms will develop.
AccuWeather released its hurricane season predictions a week earlier. They predict 14-18 names storms. Of those, seven to nine will likely become hurricanes, and two to four are likely to hit the U.S. mainland.
NOAA should issue its forecast in late May.
Hurricane season extends from June 1 to November 30.
March Warmth Unrelated to Hurricane Season
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control’s meteorologist, says that the unusually warm March that south Texas just experienced (about 8 degrees above normal) will have little effect on tropical storm formation. “There is some correlation with a warm Gulf of Mexico and severe weather and flooding along the Gulf Coast during the spring months. But there is little to no correlation to tropical activity in the Gulf during summer months.”
3-4 Inches of Rain Possible in Next 5 Days
Speaking of Spring rains, Lindner also predicts a stormy weather pattern will set up over our area for the next 5-7 days. He says “some severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible.”
“Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with isolated totals of 3-4 inches will be possible between this afternoon and Saturday,” says Lindner. He predicts the heaviest rainfall across area north of I-10. Storms could train, producing the higher rainfall amounts. But Lindner also adds, “It has been dry of late and the soil can take several inches of rainfall as long as it is not all at once.” So no one is talking about flooding at this point.
NOAA predicts a slight chance of severe storms Friday evening, mostly west of Houston.
Here’s where NOAA predicts the heaviest rains to fall during the next 5 days and what the total accumulations should be.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/2020
947 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/atl_anom.gif?fit=800%2C737&ssl=1737800adminadmin2020-04-02 12:59:582020-04-02 13:06:34“Above-Average” Hurricane Season Predicted This Year
Harris County Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle has placed an item on next Tuesday’s Commissioners’ Court Meeting that will affect the future of Kingwood. It’s to discuss the possibility of Harris County Flood Control spending $10 million to buy the Perry Home’s Woodridge Village property. It contributed to flooding hundreds of homes in Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest TWICE last year.
Where Will Two More Votes Come From?
Cagle needs at least two more votes on Commissioners Court in addition to his own to approve the effort. Reportedly, Judge Lina Hidalgo, Commissioner Adrian Garcia in Precinct 2 and Commissioner Steve Radack in Precinct 3 are the most “gettable.”
Here’s how you can help. Email or call these officials today. Urge them to support Cagle’s motion. Do it NOW. I’ve listed their contact info below.
At Stake: The Future of Kingwood
Ten flooded homes in a row, all vacated. Photo taken in North Kingwood Forest in December 2019. All homes back up to Woodridge Village.
Without help, Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest could drag down the reputation of the entire Kingwood community.
Additional flooding could devastate remaining homeowners. Many were already struggling to pay repair bills from two floods. Now corona-virus layoffs make that even more difficult.
Elm Grove kitchen home five months after being flooded a second time.
These are working class neighborhoods. As much so as any in Harris County. People simply can’t afford to flood again.
Language in last year’s flood bond allows Harris County Flood Control District to buy property in neighboring counties for the purpose of building upstream detention. The lack of detention on Perry Homes’ property is the primary reason hundreds of homes in Kingwood flooded. Two years after clearing the property, Perry Homes still has constructed only 23% of the needed detention.
No Other Good Alternatives At This Time
Harris County Flood Control reportedly can start work on expanding detention capacity as soon as Commissioners reach a deal.
If they can’t, Perry has said it will sell Woodridge Village to another developer or continue to develop the property itself. However, if that happens, the detention ponds on the property would still likely be undersized by 40%. That’s because Perry Homes rushed to get their plans approved before the new, higher Atlas-14 rainfall standards went into effect.
Help Now! Here’s How
To contact Judge Hidalgo, Commissioner Garcia or Commissioner Radack:
Remind them that Harris County receives drainage from at least FIVE surrounding counties. This problem is a county-wide problem, not just a Precinct 4 problem.
Please call or write now if you live in the Kingwood, Huffman, Humble or Atascocita areas. Even if you did not flood, flooding from Woodridge Village affects you and your home value. No one in this area can afford to let this sore fester any longer.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/1/2020
946 Days after Hurricane Harveyand 195 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Elm-Grove-9.19_68.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2020-04-01 16:09:432020-04-01 18:46:07What You Can Do Right Now to Encourage HCFCD to Buy Woodridge Village Property
The EPA has suspended normal enforcement of air and water pollution rules during the corona virus epidemic. Critics fear it could cause more deaths. They also fear that rules forced through during the emergency could hamper future pollution control efforts. Specifically, a new, broadened rule would limit use of research based on confidential health information in regulatory decisions.
Full Text of EPA Memo
This 7-page memo from the EPA outlines the new policy. It says, the EPA will “generally not seek stipulated or other penalties for noncompliance…” The thrust of the memo: EPA is counting on industry to self-report violations. If violations relate to worker shortages due to the virus, EPA will not seek penalties. EPA will also give offenders time to remedy the situation.
Reaction from Interceptor
Sharon Lerner writes in The Interceptor that “EPA IS JAMMING THROUGH ROLLBACKS THAT COULD INCREASE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS.” The article cites the case of a Pasadena refinery exceeding benzene emission limits. It also cites problems in St. Johns, Louisiana. St. John reportedly has the highest cancer risk from air pollutants in the country. Area residents are routinely exposed to dozens of air pollutants, including the carcinogen chloroprene.
Residents worry that their weakened immune response from the chemicals will make them even more susceptible to the virus.
Review by New York Times
Lisa Friedman writes in The New York Times that “E.P.A., Citing Coronavirus, Drastically Relaxes Rules for Polluters.” The EPA, says the article, will focus during the outbreak “on situations that may create an acute risk or imminent threat to public health or the environment” and said it would exercise “discretion” in enforcing other environmental rules. In other words, they will focus primarily on the worst cases.
Ms. Friedman interviewed former EPA administrators. Gina McCarthy, who led the E.P.A. under the Obama administration and now serves as president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, called it “an open license to pollute.” Cynthia Giles, who headed the E.P.A. enforcement division during the Obama administration, said: “This is essentially a nationwide waiver of environmental rules. It is so far beyond any reasonable response. I am just stunned.”
A current spokesperson for the EPA, Andrea Woods, disagreed. “For situations outside of routine monitoring and reporting,” she said, “the agency has reserved its authorities and will take the pandemic into account on a case-by-case basis.”
Protest by 21 Environmental and Watchdog Groups
Meanwhile, Rebecca Beitsch reports in The Hill that “Coalition petitions EPA for disclosure as agency OKs suspension of environmental monitoring.” She says, “Environmental groups have characterized the memo as a license to pollute, as companies will not have to submit regular reports to the EPA showing they are not violating environmental laws.” She cites a petition spearheaded by the Natural Resources Defense Council which was signed by 21 environmental and watchdog groups. “We fully appreciate the disruption and harm caused by the COVID‐19 pandemic. But EPA’s unprecedented non‐enforcement policy creates a clear opportunity for abuse,” states the petition.
LA Times Reports on Reaction by California Officials
The Los Angeles Times reports in an article by Susanne Rust, Louis Sahagun and Rosanna Xia. “Citing coronavirus, EPA suspends enforcement of environmental laws.” The LA Times article focuses on the response of California officials. “The severity of the COVID-19 crisis should not be used as an excuse by the EPA to relax enforcement of federal environmental laws designed to protect public health and safety,” said Serge Dedina, mayor of Imperial Beach. His city, on the Mexican border, is under constant siege from pollution. “This crisis has only underscored why protecting public health and safety and our environment is more critical than ever.”
Is EPA Using Crisis as Cover to Make Concessions to Polluters?
Vox in an article by By Zeeshan Aleem claimed that “The EPA appears to be using coronavirus to make huge concessions to polluters.” It says the rule will remain in place indefinitely. And it gives factories, power plants, and other major polluters tremendous discretion. Now they can decide whether or not the coronavirus will prevent them from meeting legal requirements on air and water pollution and hazardous waste management. “Many experts and environmental advocates say that while case-by-case relaxation of rules for companies that are short-staffed due to the pandemic makes sense, the expansiveness of the EPA’s directive appears both unprecedented and designed to give a green light to polluters to act recklessly at a time when air quality is acutely important for public health.”
The list goes on. A google search returned 11,800,000 results.
Will TCEQ Follow EPA Lead?
To say this is controversial would be an understatement.
At the very time when people’s lives and health are threatened by the virus, the EPA is dialing back enforcement of pollution rules that protect their lives and health.
At best, you could characterize the reaction to the new rule as “practical” given new constrictions we all operate under.
“Above-Average” Hurricane Season Predicted This Year
USA Today has reported that hurricane experts from Colorado State University (CSU) have predicted an above-average hurricane season this year. How much above average? About 140%, they say. In addition, CSU predicts a 69% chance for a MAJOR hurricane (Cat 3, 4 or 5) to strike the mainland U.S.
Warm Atlantic and El Niño Seen as Main Factors
Reasons: unusually warm seawater in the Atlantic and the likely LACK of an El Niño in the Pacific. El Niño in the Pacific usually sets up wind shear that tears apart storms in the Atlantic. Said another way, they help keep tropical storms from developing into full-force hurricanes. But without El Niño, the lack of shear allows more storms to develop and creates active hurricane seasons.
CSU predicts 18 named storms will develop.
AccuWeather released its hurricane season predictions a week earlier. They predict 14-18 names storms. Of those, seven to nine will likely become hurricanes, and two to four are likely to hit the U.S. mainland.
NOAA should issue its forecast in late May.
Hurricane season extends from June 1 to November 30.
March Warmth Unrelated to Hurricane Season
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control’s meteorologist, says that the unusually warm March that south Texas just experienced (about 8 degrees above normal) will have little effect on tropical storm formation. “There is some correlation with a warm Gulf of Mexico and severe weather and flooding along the Gulf Coast during the spring months. But there is little to no correlation to tropical activity in the Gulf during summer months.”
3-4 Inches of Rain Possible in Next 5 Days
Speaking of Spring rains, Lindner also predicts a stormy weather pattern will set up over our area for the next 5-7 days. He says “some severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible.”
“Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with isolated totals of 3-4 inches will be possible between this afternoon and Saturday,” says Lindner. He predicts the heaviest rainfall across area north of I-10. Storms could train, producing the higher rainfall amounts. But Lindner also adds, “It has been dry of late and the soil can take several inches of rainfall as long as it is not all at once.” So no one is talking about flooding at this point.
NOAA predicts a slight chance of severe storms Friday evening, mostly west of Houston.
Here’s where NOAA predicts the heaviest rains to fall during the next 5 days and what the total accumulations should be.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/2/2020
947 Days since Hurricane Harvey
What You Can Do Right Now to Encourage HCFCD to Buy Woodridge Village Property
Harris County Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle has placed an item on next Tuesday’s Commissioners’ Court Meeting that will affect the future of Kingwood. It’s to discuss the possibility of Harris County Flood Control spending $10 million to buy the Perry Home’s Woodridge Village property. It contributed to flooding hundreds of homes in Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest TWICE last year.
Where Will Two More Votes Come From?
Cagle needs at least two more votes on Commissioners Court in addition to his own to approve the effort. Reportedly, Judge Lina Hidalgo, Commissioner Adrian Garcia in Precinct 2 and Commissioner Steve Radack in Precinct 3 are the most “gettable.”
Here’s how you can help. Email or call these officials today. Urge them to support Cagle’s motion. Do it NOW. I’ve listed their contact info below.
At Stake: The Future of Kingwood
Without help, Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest could drag down the reputation of the entire Kingwood community.
These are working class neighborhoods. As much so as any in Harris County. People simply can’t afford to flood again.
Language in last year’s flood bond allows Harris County Flood Control District to buy property in neighboring counties for the purpose of building upstream detention. The lack of detention on Perry Homes’ property is the primary reason hundreds of homes in Kingwood flooded. Two years after clearing the property, Perry Homes still has constructed only 23% of the needed detention.
No Other Good Alternatives At This Time
Harris County Flood Control reportedly can start work on expanding detention capacity as soon as Commissioners reach a deal.
If they can’t, Perry has said it will sell Woodridge Village to another developer or continue to develop the property itself. However, if that happens, the detention ponds on the property would still likely be undersized by 40%. That’s because Perry Homes rushed to get their plans approved before the new, higher Atlas-14 rainfall standards went into effect.
Help Now! Here’s How
To contact Judge Hidalgo, Commissioner Garcia or Commissioner Radack:
Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo
Commissioner Adrian Garcia, Precinct 2
Commissioner Steve Radack, Precinct 3
Phone: (713) 755-6306
Email: pct3@pct3.com
Remind them that Harris County receives drainage from at least FIVE surrounding counties. This problem is a county-wide problem, not just a Precinct 4 problem.
Please call or write now if you live in the Kingwood, Huffman, Humble or Atascocita areas. Even if you did not flood, flooding from Woodridge Village affects you and your home value. No one in this area can afford to let this sore fester any longer.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/1/2020
946 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 195 since Imelda
EPA Suspends Enforcement of Pollution Rules During Virus Epidemic
The EPA has suspended normal enforcement of air and water pollution rules during the corona virus epidemic. Critics fear it could cause more deaths. They also fear that rules forced through during the emergency could hamper future pollution control efforts. Specifically, a new, broadened rule would limit use of research based on confidential health information in regulatory decisions.
Full Text of EPA Memo
This 7-page memo from the EPA outlines the new policy. It says, the EPA will “generally not seek stipulated or other penalties for noncompliance…” The thrust of the memo: EPA is counting on industry to self-report violations. If violations relate to worker shortages due to the virus, EPA will not seek penalties. EPA will also give offenders time to remedy the situation.
Reaction from Interceptor
Sharon Lerner writes in The Interceptor that “EPA IS JAMMING THROUGH ROLLBACKS THAT COULD INCREASE CORONAVIRUS DEATHS.” The article cites the case of a Pasadena refinery exceeding benzene emission limits. It also cites problems in St. Johns, Louisiana. St. John reportedly has the highest cancer risk from air pollutants in the country. Area residents are routinely exposed to dozens of air pollutants, including the carcinogen chloroprene.
Review by New York Times
Lisa Friedman writes in The New York Times that “E.P.A., Citing Coronavirus, Drastically Relaxes Rules for Polluters.” The EPA, says the article, will focus during the outbreak “on situations that may create an acute risk or imminent threat to public health or the environment” and said it would exercise “discretion” in enforcing other environmental rules. In other words, they will focus primarily on the worst cases.
Ms. Friedman interviewed former EPA administrators. Gina McCarthy, who led the E.P.A. under the Obama administration and now serves as president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, called it “an open license to pollute.” Cynthia Giles, who headed the E.P.A. enforcement division during the Obama administration, said: “This is essentially a nationwide waiver of environmental rules. It is so far beyond any reasonable response. I am just stunned.”
A current spokesperson for the EPA, Andrea Woods, disagreed. “For situations outside of routine monitoring and reporting,” she said, “the agency has reserved its authorities and will take the pandemic into account on a case-by-case basis.”
Protest by 21 Environmental and Watchdog Groups
Meanwhile, Rebecca Beitsch reports in The Hill that “Coalition petitions EPA for disclosure as agency OKs suspension of environmental monitoring.” She says, “Environmental groups have characterized the memo as a license to pollute, as companies will not have to submit regular reports to the EPA showing they are not violating environmental laws.” She cites a petition spearheaded by the Natural Resources Defense Council which was signed by 21 environmental and watchdog groups. “We fully appreciate the disruption and harm caused by the COVID‐19 pandemic. But EPA’s unprecedented non‐enforcement policy creates a clear opportunity for abuse,” states the petition.
LA Times Reports on Reaction by California Officials
The Los Angeles Times reports in an article by Susanne Rust, Louis Sahagun and Rosanna Xia. “Citing coronavirus, EPA suspends enforcement of environmental laws.” The LA Times article focuses on the response of California officials. “The severity of the COVID-19 crisis should not be used as an excuse by the EPA to relax enforcement of federal environmental laws designed to protect public health and safety,” said Serge Dedina, mayor of Imperial Beach. His city, on the Mexican border, is under constant siege from pollution. “This crisis has only underscored why protecting public health and safety and our environment is more critical than ever.”
Is EPA Using Crisis as Cover to Make Concessions to Polluters?
Vox in an article by By Zeeshan Aleem claimed that “The EPA appears to be using coronavirus to make huge concessions to polluters.” It says the rule will remain in place indefinitely. And it gives factories, power plants, and other major polluters tremendous discretion. Now they can decide whether or not the coronavirus will prevent them from meeting legal requirements on air and water pollution and hazardous waste management. “Many experts and environmental advocates say that while case-by-case relaxation of rules for companies that are short-staffed due to the pandemic makes sense, the expansiveness of the EPA’s directive appears both unprecedented and designed to give a green light to polluters to act recklessly at a time when air quality is acutely important for public health.”
Other Reaction from Around the Country
For additional perspectives see:
Business Insider: The Environmental Protection Agency says it won’t enforce its own rules during the coronavirus pandemic.
USA Today: EPA suspends some public health monitoring and enforcement because of coronavirus crisis.
Texas Tribune: Citing coronavirus pandemic, Trump administration stops enforcing environmental laws.
CBS News: “An open license to pollute”: Trump administration indefinitely suspends some environmental protection laws during coronavirus pandemic.
An Associated Press Article in Marketwatch: Citing coronavirus, EPA has stopped enforcing environmental laws
The list goes on. A google search returned 11,800,000 results.
Will TCEQ Follow EPA Lead?
To say this is controversial would be an understatement.
At best, you could characterize the reaction to the new rule as “practical” given new constrictions we all operate under.
But, like the national press, I worry that this is part of a broader effort to dial back enforcement against polluters. We see examples of pollution threats right here in the Lake Houston area almost every month. And we saw them before the pandemic.
It will be interesting to see how the TCEQ reacts to the new EPA stance. Will they fall in line? I expect their report on the latest concerns about the Triple PG mine on Friday. The mine allegedly violated the terms of a temporary injunction in its case with the Texas Attorney General. Stay tuned.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/1/2020
946 Days after Hurricane Harvey