Some recommended reading. I just finished rereading a book, published in 2017, called The Ostrich Paradox. It examines why we habitually under-prepare for disasters. Why do some people, for instance:
Fail to heed hurricane evacuation warnings?
Buy homes in flood zones without flood insurance?
Ride motorcycles without helmets?
Think they’re immune to pandemics?
Why Instinct Sometimes Overrules Reason
This book explains innate cognitive biases that often cause instinct to overrule reason.
To illustrate these biases, the authors look at a specific subset of decisions involving risks, such as flooding and earthquakes. The probability of such disasters is extremely low but the consequences extremely high. These represent rare threats for which we have little stored knowledge.
The book focuses on six cognitive biases that the authors characterize as “Our Innate Engineering.” Those biases influence our decision making in such cases.
Myopia – A tendency to focus on “here and now” costs when appraising the value of long-term protective investments. “I’m really going to have to scrimp to afford that flood insurance for a flood that may never come in my lifetime.”
Amnesia – A tendency to forget too quickly the pain of past disasters. “Harvey was two years ago. I don’t want to worry about flood mitigation now. It just reminds me of the pain.”
Optimism – A tendency to underestimate losses that could result from rare, future hazards. “Harvey was a 1000-year storm. You can’t plan for one of those.”
Inertia – A tendency to maintain the status quo or chose a default option when making difficult decisions with a high level of uncertainty. “I just can’t figure out whether these new flood maps are valid. I’m not going to buy that flood insurance now.”
Simplification – A tendency to examine a subset of factors when making complex choices involving high risk. “I never flooded before, even during Harvey. Why buy flood insurance now?”
Herding – A tendency to base choices on what people around you are doing. “None of my neighbors have flood insurance. Why should I?”
Finding Ways to Overcome Your Biases
The theory behind the book: that by recognizing our own cognitive biases, we may be able to overcome them.
After the introduction, the authors divide the book into two main parts.
The first devotes a chapter to each of the biases. Within each chapter they give dozens of examples and present academic studies that illustrate the difficulty people have making rational choices about these rare events.
The second devotes three chapters to strategies that can help us overcome them.
About the Authors
The authors are two professors from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania: Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther. They both specialize in risk management and decision processes. Wharton ranks as one of the nation’s leading business schools.
The writing can get dense at times. It’s not for the feint of heart or the casually interested. Primary audiences include academics, insurance executives, government leaders, policy makers, emergency preparedness planners, etc.
Afternoon Read That Could Make You a Better Decision Maker
That said, with enough coffee, most people could wade through this in an afternoon during the virus lockdown and get a lot out of it. It’s available for $1.99 as an e-book from Amazon.
The primary value: it helps us understand HOW we think so that we can understand WHY we make the decisions we do.
As I read it, I found myself replaying some of my own past decisions and recognizing myself in several examples. I also reflected on the dozens of flood victims I have interviewed who replayed similar arguments…with regret.
The Ostrich Paradox may help make you a better decision maker. Or help you convince other people to make better decisions.
For instance, do you have a family member who thinks he or she is immune to the corona virus?
That said, I will pass along some wisdom from an ER Nurse, based on real life examples. “Now’s not the time to learn how to ride an ATV, use a chainsaw or climb a ladder.”
Stay in. Stay safe. Stay healthy.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/9/2020
954 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Ostrich-Paradox-1.jpg?fit=324%2C500&ssl=1500324adminadmin2020-04-09 15:05:112020-04-09 15:05:22The Ostrich Paradox: Why We Habitually Under-prepare for Disasters
Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle and HCFCD had hoped to create a large scale detention basin to reduce Elm Grove and East Fork flooding. The resumption of construction makes that less likely now.
Reports Start Flowing In of Massive Construction Activity
All morning, I received reports of construction activity on the site. Near Woodland Hills. Near the N2 detention pond. Near the Webb Street entrance in Porter.
I also found this record of a City of Houston inspection dated 3/9/2020. It stated that work on the additional detention ponds was supposed to start on 3/16. It didn’t.
But Elm Grove resident Jeff Miller informed me today that Perry had started mobilizing construction equipment last week (see below) near the N1 pond. Thus, all the evidence started to support the theory that Perry was just executing the next phase of its promise to the Mayor when Commissioners failed to reach agreement last night.
Equipment staged near site of N1 Detention Pond on Perry Homes’ Woodridge Village. Photo taken 4/6/2020 by Jeff Miller.
Promises and Construction Activity Not Adding Up
One thing doesn’t quite add up, however – wherethe contractor started working today.
If Perry was fulfilling its promises to Turner, workers should have been excavating detention ponds. But they worked elsewhere, in planned residential areas near Woodland Hills Drive and adjacent to, but not in, the N2 detention pond.
N2 Detention Pond is second pond in northern section at SW corner. See triangular area in center and compare to photo below.
If Perry intended to work on the N2 Detention pond, they were in the wrong place.What were they doing?
The area labeled N2 in the photo above looks as though it has already been excavated. It was. By Montgomery County 15 years ago. Most likely as offsite detention for another project. According to plans, Perry was supposed to deepen this area to increase detention capacity. It has not yet done so. And that may have contributed to Elm Grove flooding.
However, instead of starting to deepen the pond today, or excavate N1 as Perry’s letter suggested they would, workers appeared to focus elsewhere. They worked on the other side of the tree line that separates N2 from the residential area. See above and below.
Shooting in a southerly direction toward the end of the crescent-shaped line of trees above. Note how excavation is taking place in front of the trees, not behind them.This work is not in the planned N2 pond, it’s in an area that was planned for residential.As I left the area, more equipment arrivedat Webb Street entrance.Construction activity was also evident near Woodland Hills Drive opposite Kingwood Park High School.
More Theories Than Answers At This Point
There’s no telling what’s going on. LJA, Perry and the City have not returned calls. The County was strangely silent today when notified of the construction activity.
If Perry planned to extend the N2 pond behind the trees all along, why did they leave the trees when they cleared and grubbed the rest of the site?
Why are they working by Woodland Hills?
Did Perry skip to Item #6 (swales) on their lawyer’s letter to the City?
Why did they not start with Pond N1 as their letter suggested?
Have they given up on a deal with the county or a sale to private interests?
Have they abandoned their promises to the Mayor?
Are they forging ahead with construction of their development?
Are they playing poker with the County?
Or are they just trying to get more detention capacity in before the rainy season starts?
Actions Reveal Intent More than Words
Regardless of the answers, there’s a truth to actions that’s often obscured by words.
The location of construction activity makes it appear that Perry has decided to forge ahead with the development of Woodridge Village.
Unfortunately, that could make a potential deal more remote. That will add to cost that Perry likely demands for a deal. Perhaps millions. And cost formed the primary barrier to consummating a deal last night.
Worse yet, there’s no assurance that anything Perry is currently doing to the site will further HCFCD’s goals for the property.
If there was an innocent explanation for all this, no one volunteered it Wednesday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/8/2020 with help from Jeff Miller
953 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 202 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/20200408-RJR_0466.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-04-08 22:59:202020-04-09 15:31:47Perry Homes Resumes Construction of Woodridge Village Day After County Commissioners Fail to Reach Deal
When I saw this meme, it made me realize that people feel walls closing in on them from the virus lockdown.
So take a quick getaway. Cruise down Ben’s Branch with Josh Alberson in his jet boat. Jetboats have a very shallow draft, so they can get into areas too shallow for propeller-driven boats.
First Video Shows HCFCD Excavation Work Up Close
Josh sent in two videos. One shows the area where Harris County flood control is currently excavating the last of almost 80,000 cubic yards of sediment. In this video, Josh’s boat moves slowly so as not to create wakes that endanger workers.
As he moves under the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge, you can see an excavator stacking wet soil on the shore where it will drain before trucks haul it away.
Video courtesy of Josh Alberson
Said Beth Walters of Harris County Flood Control, “The material placed along the south bank of Ben’s Branch is drying out. It will be disposed of offsite. The south bank of the bayou will remain in the same location. This is a maintenance project to restore the channel.”
Second Video: High Speed to Lake Houston
The second video is more exciting. It makes you want to go out and buy a jet boat and explore the river and its tributaries.
As Josh moves past the YMCA and approaches the Deerwood Club, he pulls the throttles out all the way to Lake Houston.
Says Josh, “The Mouth Bar really extends all the way to shore. From the visible island to the park in the Cove, it is all only 2 ft or so deep. While Ben’s Branch may be up to 6 ft deep, it dumps out into a 2 ft deep flat.”
Video courtesy of Josh Alberson
But that’s City property and another project for another day.
Plans for Area South of Kingwood Drive
These videos do not show Ben’s Branch immediately south of Kingwood Drive to the Kingwood Library. Many readers ask about the aesthetics of that reach. Even though the construction has moved past that area, it still looks ragged.
Said Walters, “The contractor will be required to dress up the site so that turf grass establishment can occur. Contractors typically dress up the site and complete all final grading just before moving off site. Once dressed, HCFCD’s vegetation team will place turf grass placed upon it. The final condition of the entire project site will be as it was before, with turf grass on all of the earthen berms and banks.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/8/2020with thanks to Josh Alberson, Beth Walters and HCFCD
953 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Screen-Shot-2020-04-08-at-11.51.22-AM.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=16761200adminadmin2020-04-08 11:53:552020-04-08 12:12:52Getaway During Lockdown: Cruise Down Ben’s Branch in Josh Alberson’s Jet Boat
The Ostrich Paradox: Why We Habitually Under-prepare for Disasters
Some recommended reading. I just finished rereading a book, published in 2017, called The Ostrich Paradox. It examines why we habitually under-prepare for disasters. Why do some people, for instance:
Why Instinct Sometimes Overrules Reason
To illustrate these biases, the authors look at a specific subset of decisions involving risks, such as flooding and earthquakes. The probability of such disasters is extremely low but the consequences extremely high. These represent rare threats for which we have little stored knowledge.
Six Innate Cognitive Biases
The book focuses on six cognitive biases that the authors characterize as “Our Innate Engineering.” Those biases influence our decision making in such cases.
Myopia – A tendency to focus on “here and now” costs when appraising the value of long-term protective investments. “I’m really going to have to scrimp to afford that flood insurance for a flood that may never come in my lifetime.”
Amnesia – A tendency to forget too quickly the pain of past disasters. “Harvey was two years ago. I don’t want to worry about flood mitigation now. It just reminds me of the pain.”
Optimism – A tendency to underestimate losses that could result from rare, future hazards. “Harvey was a 1000-year storm. You can’t plan for one of those.”
Inertia – A tendency to maintain the status quo or chose a default option when making difficult decisions with a high level of uncertainty. “I just can’t figure out whether these new flood maps are valid. I’m not going to buy that flood insurance now.”
Simplification – A tendency to examine a subset of factors when making complex choices involving high risk. “I never flooded before, even during Harvey. Why buy flood insurance now?”
Herding – A tendency to base choices on what people around you are doing. “None of my neighbors have flood insurance. Why should I?”
Finding Ways to Overcome Your Biases
The theory behind the book: that by recognizing our own cognitive biases, we may be able to overcome them.
After the introduction, the authors divide the book into two main parts.
The first devotes a chapter to each of the biases. Within each chapter they give dozens of examples and present academic studies that illustrate the difficulty people have making rational choices about these rare events.
The second devotes three chapters to strategies that can help us overcome them.
About the Authors
The authors are two professors from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania: Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther. They both specialize in risk management and decision processes. Wharton ranks as one of the nation’s leading business schools.
The writing can get dense at times. It’s not for the feint of heart or the casually interested. Primary audiences include academics, insurance executives, government leaders, policy makers, emergency preparedness planners, etc.
Afternoon Read That Could Make You a Better Decision Maker
That said, with enough coffee, most people could wade through this in an afternoon during the virus lockdown and get a lot out of it. It’s available for $1.99 as an e-book from Amazon.
As I read it, I found myself replaying some of my own past decisions and recognizing myself in several examples. I also reflected on the dozens of flood victims I have interviewed who replayed similar arguments…with regret.
The Ostrich Paradox may help make you a better decision maker. Or help you convince other people to make better decisions.
For instance, do you have a family member who thinks he or she is immune to the corona virus?
That said, I will pass along some wisdom from an ER Nurse, based on real life examples. “Now’s not the time to learn how to ride an ATV, use a chainsaw or climb a ladder.”
Stay in. Stay safe. Stay healthy.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/9/2020
954 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Perry Homes Resumes Construction of Woodridge Village Day After County Commissioners Fail to Reach Deal
In March, the City of Houston publicly refused to participate financially in any purchase of Perry Homes’ Woodridge Village property. Perry Homes then gave other parties still negotiating (i.e., Harris County) an end-of-month deadline. Perry extended that a week when it appeared that Harris County Commissioners might come up with the cash. However, when the Commissioners failed to reach agreement late last night, Perry resumed construction Wednesday morning.
Precinct 4 Commissioner Jack Cagle and HCFCD had hoped to create a large scale detention basin to reduce Elm Grove and East Fork flooding. The resumption of construction makes that less likely now.
Reports Start Flowing In of Massive Construction Activity
All morning, I received reports of construction activity on the site. Near Woodland Hills. Near the N2 detention pond. Near the Webb Street entrance in Porter.
It’s hard to imagine how Perry could react so fast. Then it occurred to me. Maybe they didn’t. Maybe this was in response to promises they made to Mayor Turner last October.
Perry’s Promise to the City
In February, I reported that LJA Engineering was soliciting bids to build the additional detention ponds for Perry mentioned in the letter above. Here is the invitation to bidders.
I also found this record of a City of Houston inspection dated 3/9/2020. It stated that work on the additional detention ponds was supposed to start on 3/16. It didn’t.
But Elm Grove resident Jeff Miller informed me today that Perry had started mobilizing construction equipment last week (see below) near the N1 pond. Thus, all the evidence started to support the theory that Perry was just executing the next phase of its promise to the Mayor when Commissioners failed to reach agreement last night.
Promises and Construction Activity Not Adding Up
One thing doesn’t quite add up, however – where the contractor started working today.
Here are the approved plans for the N2 Detention Pond.
The area labeled N2 in the photo above looks as though it has already been excavated. It was. By Montgomery County 15 years ago. Most likely as offsite detention for another project. According to plans, Perry was supposed to deepen this area to increase detention capacity. It has not yet done so. And that may have contributed to Elm Grove flooding.
However, instead of starting to deepen the pond today, or excavate N1 as Perry’s letter suggested they would, workers appeared to focus elsewhere. They worked on the other side of the tree line that separates N2 from the residential area. See above and below.
More Theories Than Answers At This Point
There’s no telling what’s going on. LJA, Perry and the City have not returned calls. The County was strangely silent today when notified of the construction activity.
Actions Reveal Intent More than Words
Regardless of the answers, there’s a truth to actions that’s often obscured by words.
Unfortunately, that could make a potential deal more remote. That will add to cost that Perry likely demands for a deal. Perhaps millions. And cost formed the primary barrier to consummating a deal last night.
Worse yet, there’s no assurance that anything Perry is currently doing to the site will further HCFCD’s goals for the property.
If there was an innocent explanation for all this, no one volunteered it Wednesday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/8/2020 with help from Jeff Miller
953 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 202 since Imelda
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Getaway During Lockdown: Cruise Down Ben’s Branch in Josh Alberson’s Jet Boat
When I saw this meme, it made me realize that people feel walls closing in on them from the virus lockdown.
So take a quick getaway. Cruise down Ben’s Branch with Josh Alberson in his jet boat. Jetboats have a very shallow draft, so they can get into areas too shallow for propeller-driven boats.
First Video Shows HCFCD Excavation Work Up Close
Josh sent in two videos. One shows the area where Harris County flood control is currently excavating the last of almost 80,000 cubic yards of sediment. In this video, Josh’s boat moves slowly so as not to create wakes that endanger workers.
As he moves under the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge, you can see an excavator stacking wet soil on the shore where it will drain before trucks haul it away.
Said Beth Walters of Harris County Flood Control, “The material placed along the south bank of Ben’s Branch is drying out. It will be disposed of offsite. The south bank of the bayou will remain in the same location. This is a maintenance project to restore the channel.”
Second Video: High Speed to Lake Houston
The second video is more exciting. It makes you want to go out and buy a jet boat and explore the river and its tributaries.
Says Josh, “The Mouth Bar really extends all the way to shore. From the visible island to the park in the Cove, it is all only 2 ft or so deep. While Ben’s Branch may be up to 6 ft deep, it dumps out into a 2 ft deep flat.”
But that’s City property and another project for another day.
Plans for Area South of Kingwood Drive
These videos do not show Ben’s Branch immediately south of Kingwood Drive to the Kingwood Library. Many readers ask about the aesthetics of that reach. Even though the construction has moved past that area, it still looks ragged.
Said Walters, “The contractor will be required to dress up the site so that turf grass establishment can occur. Contractors typically dress up the site and complete all final grading just before moving off site. Once dressed, HCFCD’s vegetation team will place turf grass placed upon it. The final condition of the entire project site will be as it was before, with turf grass on all of the earthen berms and banks.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/8/2020 with thanks to Josh Alberson, Beth Walters and HCFCD
953 Days since Hurricane Harvey