As of 5PM on Friday afternoon, September 11, Topical Depression 19 had formed off the east coast of Florida and was headed for the Gulf. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Deep convection has developed near or over the likely location of the surface center. The system is overall fairly large in nature with several curved bands.”
TS Watch Already Issued for the SE Florida Coast
The National Hurricane Center has already issued a tropical storm warning for the SE coast of Florida.
Tropical storm or hurricane watches will likely be required tomorrow for portions of the central US Gulf Coast.
National Hurricane Center
Track
Tropical Depression 19 is moving toward the WNW around 8mph. This motion should continue for the next 24-48 hours. There is some uncertainty in the forecast track, but right now the depression is forecast to approach the central US Gulf coast early next week. It could ravage some of the same areas hit by Hurricane Laura.
Cone of uncertainty for TD19. Remember, the storm has an equal chance of tracking anywhere within the cone. The cone does not indicate the storm’s width.Tropical storm force wind probabilities for the next 120 hours (3 days). As of 2PM Friday, September 11.
Intensity
According to Linder, “Tropical Depression 19 could already be nearing topical-storm intensity. Conditions ahead of the system look generally favorable for development with light shear, a good moisture envelope, and very warm sea surface temperatures.” He adds that models diverge in their forecasts: some bring the system to a hurricane while many show a stronger tropical storm. NHC brings the system to a 70mph tropical storm. “But it is very possible that a hurricane will be approaching the central US Gulf coast early next week,” says Lindner.
Monitor weather forecasts closely for the next few days.
Posted by Bob Rehak on September 11, 2020
1109 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 19 years since the Twin Tower Attacks
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/205735_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-09-11 18:01:592020-09-11 18:02:11Tropical Depression 19 Predicted to Become Tropical Storm or Possibly Hurricane In Gulf Next Week
The project area includes Cypress Lane and Palmetto Lane. The map above shows the project limits highlighted in red.
Scope of Work
The scope of work for the ditch rehabilitation project includes:
Regrading and re-establishing of the roadside ditches
Replacing of the culverts and resetting them to match the flow line of the ditch
Replacing the driveway where the culverts are replaced
Increasing the capacity of any culverts less than 24 inches in diameter
Removing any unpermitted culverts or other encroachments in the City Right of Way.
Project Approximately on Schedule
I drove by the project earlier in the week and it appeared that the City had completed approximately a quarter to a third of the project in about a quarter of the time. That means they are on schedule or slightly ahead.
Ditch rehab already completed in Forest Cove
From the looks of things, it appears the City is doing exactly what it promised.
For More Information
For more information, please contact Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin’s office at (832) 393-3008 or via email at districte@houstontx.gov.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2020
1108 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/20200902-RJR_0221.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2020-09-10 17:02:562020-09-10 17:03:13City Making Good Progress on Forest Cove Ditch Rehabilitation Project
Source: NHC. Peak of season occurs on September 10.
“The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season,” warns the NHC.
Average Number of Storms
Source; NHC
In an average season, we get 11 or 12 named storms, six of which become hurricanes and two or three of which become major hurricanes (category 3 or greater).
Twelve storms would get you to the letter L. But so far this year, we’re already on the R storm. And we have three more months to go in the season.
Points of Origin Tend to Shift by Month
The NHC shows where hurricanes tend to form each month of the season. In the first ten days of September, more hurricanes form in the Gulf than at any other time. The NHC shows a whole series of charts like the one below. It’s interesting to see how they change from period to period.
Source: NHC. Sept. 1-10 and Sept. 11-20 show the greatest number of hurricanes forming in the Gulf.
Note how few storms formed in the Caribbean compared to the period from October 11 to 20.
Compared to September 1-10, note how many more storms formed in the Caribbean during October 11-20.
Track Probabilities Also Shift by Month
The NHC also shows an interesting series of charts that show track probabilities by month. September is the most likely month for storms to track through the Caribbean, into the Gulf and onward to the Texas coast.
Source: NHC
Source: NHC
In stark contrast, during October, storms are most likely to veer east toward Florida and the East Coast.
Strike Density on Western Gulf Coast
Source: NHC
On the Texas Gulf Coast, Galveston has been hit more times than any other county. Harris, Brazoria and Chambers Counties follow closely.
Today’s Five Day Tropical Outlook
As if on cue, the NHC is now tracking seven tropical disturbances (as of 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020).
The two closest to Texas are highlighted in yellow above. That means they currently have less than a 40% chance of formation.
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas is forecast to move westward, crossing Florida on Friday and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for some development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Formation chance through 5 days is 30 percent.
Another trough of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible while this system moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Formation chance through through 5 days is even lower, at 20 percent.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2020
1108 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/peakofseason.gif?fit=831%2C546&ssl=1546831adminadmin2020-09-10 11:34:142020-09-10 11:34:38Today is Statistical Peak of Hurricane Season
Tropical Depression 19 Predicted to Become Tropical Storm or Possibly Hurricane In Gulf Next Week
As of 5PM on Friday afternoon, September 11, Topical Depression 19 had formed off the east coast of Florida and was headed for the Gulf. According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Deep convection has developed near or over the likely location of the surface center. The system is overall fairly large in nature with several curved bands.”
TS Watch Already Issued for the SE Florida Coast
The National Hurricane Center has already issued a tropical storm warning for the SE coast of Florida.
Track
Tropical Depression 19 is moving toward the WNW around 8mph. This motion should continue for the next 24-48 hours. There is some uncertainty in the forecast track, but right now the depression is forecast to approach the central US Gulf coast early next week. It could ravage some of the same areas hit by Hurricane Laura.
Intensity
According to Linder, “Tropical Depression 19 could already be nearing topical-storm intensity. Conditions ahead of the system look generally favorable for development with light shear, a good moisture envelope, and very warm sea surface temperatures.” He adds that models diverge in their forecasts: some bring the system to a hurricane while many show a stronger tropical storm. NHC brings the system to a 70mph tropical storm. “But it is very possible that a hurricane will be approaching the central US Gulf coast early next week,” says Lindner.
Monitor weather forecasts closely for the next few days.
Posted by Bob Rehak on September 11, 2020
1109 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 19 years since the Twin Tower Attacks
City Making Good Progress on Forest Cove Ditch Rehabilitation Project
In late July, the City of Houston’s Stormwater Action Team began a ditch rehabilitation project in Forest Cove. The City predicted the project would take until November 24, weather permitting.
The project area includes Cypress Lane and Palmetto Lane. The map above shows the project limits highlighted in red.
Scope of Work
The scope of work for the ditch rehabilitation project includes:
Project Approximately on Schedule
I drove by the project earlier in the week and it appeared that the City had completed approximately a quarter to a third of the project in about a quarter of the time. That means they are on schedule or slightly ahead.
From the looks of things, it appears the City is doing exactly what it promised.
For More Information
For more information, please contact Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin’s office at (832) 393-3008 or via email at districte@houstontx.gov.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2020
1108 Days after Hurricane Harvey
Today is Statistical Peak of Hurricane Season
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), today is the statistical peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.
Little Known Facts About Hurricanes: Peak of Season
The NHC has a fascinating page on hurricanes and climatology. Here are some interesting facts I gleaned from it.
“The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season,” warns the NHC.
Average Number of Storms
In an average season, we get 11 or 12 named storms, six of which become hurricanes and two or three of which become major hurricanes (category 3 or greater).
Twelve storms would get you to the letter L. But so far this year, we’re already on the R storm. And we have three more months to go in the season.
Points of Origin Tend to Shift by Month
The NHC shows where hurricanes tend to form each month of the season. In the first ten days of September, more hurricanes form in the Gulf than at any other time. The NHC shows a whole series of charts like the one below. It’s interesting to see how they change from period to period.
Note how few storms formed in the Caribbean compared to the period from October 11 to 20.
Track Probabilities Also Shift by Month
The NHC also shows an interesting series of charts that show track probabilities by month. September is the most likely month for storms to track through the Caribbean, into the Gulf and onward to the Texas coast.
In stark contrast, during October, storms are most likely to veer east toward Florida and the East Coast.
Strike Density on Western Gulf Coast
On the Texas Gulf Coast, Galveston has been hit more times than any other county. Harris, Brazoria and Chambers Counties follow closely.
Today’s Five Day Tropical Outlook
As if on cue, the NHC is now tracking seven tropical disturbances (as of 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2020).
The two closest to Texas are highlighted in yellow above. That means they currently have less than a 40% chance of formation.
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas is forecast to move westward, crossing Florida on Friday and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for some development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Formation chance through 5 days is 30 percent.
Another trough of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible while this system moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Formation chance through through 5 days is even lower, at 20 percent.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2020
1108 Days since Hurricane Harvey