Friday Flood Digest

Here’s a digest of recent flood-related happenings. Follow the links for more detailed information.

Texas’ First-Ever Regional Flood Planning Process Gets Underway

The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) is helping recently formed regional-flood planning groups deliver 15 regional flood plans by January of 2023. These regional flood plans will form Texas’ first-ever state flood plan, due to the legislature by September of 2024.

The Board designated flood-planning group members on October 1st. The regional flood planning group meetings are publicly posted under the Texas Open Meetings Act. The first meetings were posted on the TWDB website and the Secretary of State website. Groups have two objectives:

  • Reduce current flood risk
  • Prevent creation of new flood risk 

Flood Projects Move Closer to Funding

Flood projects eligible for funding through the State’s Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) moved one step closer to becoming a reality this week. Select applicants are currently submitting complete (as opposed to abridged) project applications to the TWDB. These applications will help Texas communities finance drainage and flood mitigation and control projects.

Eligible entities submitted 280 abridged applications for more than $2.3 billion in financial assistance.

TWDB culled that list to fit the available $770 million in funding for structural and nonstructural flood projects. Of that $770 million, TWDB will allocate $231 million (30 percent) to grants and $539 million (70 percent) to loans with no interest.

TWDB Chairman Peter Lake characterized this program as one of the biggest steps the State has ever taken toward flood mitigation.

As of November 5, 2020, the TWDB had received 125 applications from cities, counties, water districts, and other political subdivisions. The deadline for full applications is November 23.

Four of five SJRA abridged applications made the cut:

  • Upper San Jacinto Sedimentation Study
  • Spring Creek Flood Control Dams Conceptual Engineering Study
  • Lake Conroe/Lake Houston Joint Operations Study
  • Flood Early Warning System for San Jacinto County

Chuck Gilman, SJRA’s Director of Water Resources and Flood Management, said, “We hope to receive final notice on our four full applications in late December or early January.”

“The causes and effects of flooding vary from region to region, so there is no single ‘silver bullet’ solution to mitigate floods,” said Lake. “It is critical that we support Texas communities as they plan for and mitigate future risks based on their unique needs and circumstances.”

The Board will consider approving financial assistance commitments at public meetings in the coming months.“Financial assistance will help communities with both flood planning and project implementation. While we can’t avoid natural disasters, we can mitigate the damage they do,” said Lake.

Fire and Flooding

Fire and flooding may seem like a strange combination. But yes, fire can contribute to flooding. I first noticed this phenomenon on an island called Guanaja in the Bay of Honduras where I used to scuba dive. One year, poachers set fires at the bottom of a hill to drive exotic tropical birds toward nets at the top of the hill. The next year, half the hill slid into the Caribbean during heavy rains.

So what does that have to do with Houston? As drought approaches, developers continue to set fires to clear land. That kills all the grasses that retain soil. When rain does return, that soil will wash downstream and likely contribute to the mouth bar growing on the San Jacinto East Fork. Reduction of the river’s “conveyance” can back water up and contribute to flooding.

Drought Vs. Flooding

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “The focus for the last several years has been on flooding and heavy rainfall. We’ve had floods in some portion of Texas for each of the last 5 years. However, the onset of moderate to strong La Niña conditions in the Pacific appear to be swinging the state back toward a dry period.”

“What was predicted to be an active period next week is slowly decreasing both “cold” and “moisture” wise in recent model runs, as is typical in La Nina winters,” says Lindner.

Climate Prediction Center outlooks for the next two weeks indicate below average rainfall and above average temperatures. Similar outlooks continue for three months. Vegetation health will continue to decline, but likely at a slower rate than during the hot summer months when heat is maximized.  

Three month outlook from NOAA predicts below average rainfall across southern US.

So be careful of outdoor burning (see story above). Many counties have already imposed outdoor burn bans.

Note outdoor burn ban in Liberty County.

The only positive side of drought is that it can make ideal construction weather for flood-mitigation projects (see two stories above).

Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force Has First Meeting

The Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force held its first meeting earlier this month. The first order of business: expand the group’s membership from five to 17. The group is creating a web site which will accept online applications; it should be up shortly.

The application deadline: December 11. Stay alert for more information if you are interested in representing your area. Preference will be given to those:

  • Who have flooded
  • Represent flood-prone communities
  • Have knowledge in certain areas, such as housing, public health, engineering/construction, urban design/planning, flood-risk mitigation, environment, etc.

Water Baron of Montgomery County Takes On World; Lawyers Drool

Simon Sequeira, CEO of Quadvest and the Water Baron of Montgomery County, continues his War with the World. At the last GMA14 meeting, lawyers are reportedly lining up to get a piece of the action and licking their lips.

Sequeira also supplies water to Colony Ridge in Liberty County. Several years ago, he led a fight to get the board of the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District elected rather than appointed. Then he backed candidates who favored unlimited groundwater pumping and promised to Restore Affordable Water.

Broken Promises

While groundwater is cheaper than surface water, water bills reportedly failed to come down. However, he has stopped paying the SJRA. Sequeira says he is setting aside that money in a special fund in case he loses his legal battle with the SJRA. But his legal battles go far beyond the SJRA. He’s also taking on the rest of GMA14.

GMA14 includes the 15 colored counties above, each represented by a different conservation district. Montgomery County (dark blue) has the Lonestar Groundwater Conservation District.
Purpose of Groundwater Management Areas

GMA stands for groundwater management area. GMAs were set up years ago, in part, to make sure that one county doesn’t hog groundwater, depriving surrounding areas and creating subsidence. So the other counties in GMA14 get to approve (or not) the groundwater withdrawal rates in Montgomery County.

They do that by defining “desired future conditions.” How much drawdown in an aquifer is acceptable? How much subsidence can people and infrastructure tolerate?

GMA14 wants Sequeira to leave 70% of the water in aquifers intact and to produce no more than 1 foot of subsidence.

Hired-Gun Experts Defy Scientific Consensus

Ever since, Sequeira took on this fight, his hired-gun experts have been trying to prove subsidence doesn’t pose a threat in Montgomery County. Unfortunately, data and models don’t agree with him. His pumping has already created subsidence in MoCo and now threatens northern Harris County, too.

Strangely enough, while science has shown – and the rest of the world believes – that unlimited groundwater pumping causes subsidence, Sequeira does not. His profit margin depends on cheap groundwater, unfettered by fees designed to encourage people to convert to surface water.

Five Alternative Plans Considered

Sequeira and company originally proposed three alternative plans to GMA14 that involved pumping:

  • 900 feet of decline in the Jasper Aquifer
  • 700 feet of decline in the Jasper Aquifer
  • 250 feet of decline in the Jasper Aquifer (Similar to Run D scenario, modeled below.)

Of those three, GMA14 only considered the last (even though Lone Star and GMA14 use different criteria to describe the volume pumped).

GMA14 countered by adding two more alternatives that involved even less pumping:

  • 115,000 acre-feet per year (Similar to Lone Star’s Run D scenario. See below).
  • 97,000 acre-feet per year
  • 61,000 acre-feet per year

The two sides are still arguing about how much can be pumped safely. And that’s why the lawyers are drooling.

Models Show Unacceptable Subsidence from Sequeira’s Least Damaging Plan

Subsidence can alter the landscape in ways that cause water to collect in areas that otherwise might not flood. The maps below model projected subsidence in south Montgomery and northern Harris Counties. And we know that this model under-predicts subsidence. That’s because it doesn’t model ANY subsidence from the Jasper aquifer.

Sequeira’s least damaging plan would cause up to 3.25 feet of subsidence in southern Montgomery County and up to 3 feet in northern Harris County, according to GMA14. See below.

Pumping 115,000 feet per year would cause up to 3.25 feet of subsidence in southern MoCo.
The same amount of pumping would cause up 3 feet of subsidence in parts of Kingwood and Huffman, and a foot or more in much of the rest of Harris County.
Effect on Humble, Kingwood, Atascocita, Huffman Areas

If you live in the Lake Houston Area and you stare at that last subsidence map long enough, eventually you will come to a jaw-dropping realization. The Lake Houston spillway is only subsiding by a foot. But the headwaters of the lake are subsiding up to 3 feet. Imagine filling your bathtub with water and then tilting it two feet.

Homes and businesses in the headwaters of Lake Houston will be lowered 2 feet relative to the spillway.

That’s a huge amount. Those who built homes a foot above the hundred year flood-plain would find themselves a foot below it. Those who had a couple inches of water in their homes would have more than two feet after subsidence.

Battle Lines Drawn

So the battle lines are drawn. Sequeira wants to allow up to 900 feet of decline in the Jasper aquifer. And GMA14 wants no more than 1 foot of subsidence with 70% of the aquifer intact. That would mean pumping less than 100,000 acre feet per year.

The presence of so many lawyers in the last GMA14 meeting reportedly has the smaller groundwater management districts nervous. One observer used the word “intimidated.” Some don’t have financial resources to fight Sequeira.

Lawyers I talk to believe Sequeira has little chance of winning a lawsuit. But who needs a favorable judgment when you have an army of lawyers that can intimidate the other side into backing down.

However, if Sequeira is successful, he could open up himself and the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District to billions of dollars in “takings” claims. The lawyers make out coming and going.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/20/2020

1179 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Humble ISD Clearing Site for New Ag Barn Far from West Fork Floodway

On November 6th, the Humble ISD (HISD) broke ground for its new 6.9-acre North Agricultural Science Center at the intersection of Ford Road and Mills Branch Road, opposite the entrance to North Kingwood Forest.

Artists Renderings of new HISD Agricultural Science Center between Porter and North Kingwood Forest. Courtesy of Humble ISD.

Replacement for Flooded Ag Barn Near Deer Ridge Park

The site lies less than a quarter mile south of the new Humble ISD north transportation center. And it’s within four miles of Kingwood and Kingwood Park High Schools.

The new ag center will replace the existing Kingwood Ag Barn located on Woodland Hills Drive at Deer Ridge Park. That facility flooded numerous times since it opened in 1995. The most extensive flooding happened during Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

Site of OLD ag barn location near Deer Ridge Park was in San Jacinto West Fork floodway (cross-hatched area). Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer.

The new North Agricultural Science Center should eliminate worries of West Fork flooding due to its location on higher land. However, it is still near Mills Branch Creek which flooded Mills Branch Road during Imelda. See the flood map below.

Site of NEW ag barn where Mills Branch Road turns north into Ford Road in Porter. Yellow-green line is Harris/Montgomery County Line. The nearby floodway is for Mills Branch Creek.

Humble ISD received a FEMA grant of more than $8.8 million after the Kingwood Ag Barn flooded during Harvey.

“Hurricane Harvey flooded our current ag facility up to the rafters,” Dr. Elizabeth Fagen, Humble ISD superintendent, said. “Since that time, every time we see significant rain, our students are forced to evacuate a lot of animals to a separate ag facility.”

Aerial Photos

These photos show the new site being cleared on 11/19/2020. The first looks north toward the new HISD transportation center by the cell tower. That’s Ford Steel on the left and the northeast corner of Woodridge Village beyond that.

Site of new HISD Ag Science Center where Mills Branch Road (bottom left) turns into Ford Road (upper left) at county line.
Reverse shot looking south. Mills Branch Road on right with entrance to North Kingwood Forest in upper right. The triangular area opposite the entrance to NKF is a detention pond.

Dirt from the detention pond is apparently being used to build up the site slightly to elevate it above the Mills Branch floodplain.

Details of New Ag Science Center

The center measures 29,000 square feet. It will hold:

  • 70 pigs
  • 70 goats or lambs
  • 20 poultry and rabbit pens
  • 24 cattle.

The new center will also include a practice arena, teacher offices, restrooms, a designated turnout area, comprehensive security measures, and expanded parking.

Veterinary schools often make Ag or FFA experience in high school a condition of admissions.

Larkin Le Sueur, Career and Technical Education Director for Humble ISD, said, “This new facility will offer expanded space for students to interact with their animals and also expand FFA opportunities for our district.” 

The new center will cost $4.5 million to construct. HISD chose Stantec to design the project and DT Construction to build it. It will open in the 2021 school year.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/19/2020 with input from Humble ISD, Jeff Miller and Chris Bloch

1178 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 427 since Imelda

Next Phase of Mouth-Bar Dredging Starting

The next phase of San Jacinto West Fork mouth-bar dredging should start December 1, according to Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin. This will start Phase 2 of a Texas Water Development Board grant announced in January of this year (although the phases were numbered differently at that time).

Small Strip of Bar Will Remain for Now

Contractors have already removed all but a few square feet of the above-water portion of the mouth bar. Only a tiny strip remains that will be used for safety purposes during the next phase.

“The dredge operator is using this land mass temporarily for safety reasons. The next phase will be mechanical dredging working off of floating barges. In the event that during the dredging process, a barge is damaged, the equipment can be readily offloaded onto the Mouth Bar land mass, preventing water damage to this equipment. We anticipate moving into the new location beginning December 1st,” said Martin.

Next Phase Includes Another 260,000 CY

Martin says the next phase includes dredging north of the area just completed (the above-water portion of the mouth bar) to a depth of six feet. See the black cross-hatched area below.

For a higher resolution, printable PDF, click here. The next phase will dredge an approximate 60-acre area to a uniform depth of 6 feet from a current depth ranging from 2-4 feet.

The numbers in the map above represent current depth in feet plus tenths of a foot.

  • Purple numbers mean greater than six feet.
  • Dark blue means five feet.
  • Light blue means four.
  • Green means three.
  • And yellow means 2 or less.

More Mechanical Dredging For Next Phase

Martin says the next phase will consist of more mechanical dredging. That means more excavators working from pontoons. See pictures below.

Yesterday, two worked the edges of the area of interest.

A veteran dredger suggested they may be excavating test holes. Why? They could be looking to see how dense the silt is; that could affect the horsepower needed for hydraulic dredges in later phases.

They also could be looking for submerged trees. In a previous phase of dredging between West Lake Houston Parkway and the D1 marker below, dredgers ran into trees along the north side of the river, so they had to make up extra volume on the south side to meet objectives.

Photos Taken November 17, 2020

The Google Earth image below from last year shows where I photographed two dredges (D1, D2) yesterday in relation to where the mouth bar used to be.

Below: actual images of the dredging and dredge area.

Looking west (upstream) toward Kings Harbor and the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge past D1.
Looking north past first dredge (D1) toward the Deerwood Golf Course. Note the depth of water on the arm (approximately 10-15 feet).
Looking south toward FM1960 over what’s left of the above-water portion of the mouth bar. Note the second dredge in the distant background.
This image shows how shallow the water is in the area to be dredged. The birds are STANDING!
Looking northwest. D2 in foreground. Note D1 barely visible in front of long peninsula at top of picture. Also note remainder of mouth bar at right.

In the picture immediately above, dredging in the next phase will take place in an arc around and behind that sliver of sand on the upper right.

Another Million Cubic Yards

Earlier in the year, the City announced that FEMA had agreed to dredge another million cubic yards. We do not know at this time where FEMA’s million cubic yards will come from. That might be yet another phase that dredges a channel between the dredges you see in the photo above.

Stephen Costello, the City’s flood czar, said in October that he was hiring an engineering consultant to determine the optimal course of action.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/18/2020

1177 Days since Hurricane Harvey