The 3PM CST update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Eta shows the storm emerging into the Bay of Honduras this afternoon as a tropical depression. Then it will intensify into a tropical storm, head to Cuba, and take a left turn into the Gulf. Round and round she goes, where she stops…
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “It is possible that Eta may eventually transition toward a sub-tropical system as it becomes increasingly entangled with the upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. For now NHC brings the system to a 65mph tropical storm over the Florida straits early next week with some of the intensity guidance showing slightly stronger solutions that would be near hurricane intensity.”
As of this morning, as this WeatherNerds spaghetti model shows, forecasts were all over the place. Later forecasts suggest it may be pushed east of the Houston Region. But again, it’s still a long way off.
So keep your eye on the Gulf. As Yogi Berra used to say, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” What goes for baseball goes for hurricane season – this year especially! Remember, Eta set a record for intensifying from a tropical storm into a major hurricane within hours before slamming into Nicaragua.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/5/2020based on info from the NHC, WeatherNerds and HCFCD.
1164 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/211147_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2020-11-05 16:48:082020-11-05 16:58:46If You Thought Hurricane Season Was Over, Think Again
Hurricane Harvey deposited a giant sand bar at the mouth of the San Jacinto West Fork that formed a dam behind the dam. More than 3000 feet long and 3000 feet wide, it backed water up into thousands of homes and businesses. Ever since then, removing it has become a major focus of flood mitigation efforts in the Lake Houston Area.
As of this morning, virtually all of the above water portion was gone. So were there two excavators working on it last month. The portions that remain are so narrow that they are starting to crumble into the lake. The remainder of the job will likely have to be performed from pontoons. See the pictures below, all taken on 11/5/2020.
Looking downstream toward FM1960 Bridge. At the start of the current phase of dredging, the little island on the left used to fill the entire foreground and stretch from one edge of the frame to the other.As the mouth bar crumbles into the lake, workers needed railroad ties to stabilize the land long enough to get their excavator onto a pontoon.Looking upstream toward the West Lake Houston Parkway bridge. The Mouth Bar used to fill the whole area in the foreground. Contractors should finish in the next week or so at the rate they have been working. There’s perhaps 50-100 feet in length and 10 feet in width left.
What you see in the photo above is the last of an estimated 400,000 cubic yards that the City of Houston is removing.
With the above water portion of the bar removed, it will be more difficult to visualize the problem from now on. But sand bars are like ice bergs. The majority of them lurks beneath the surface. And an underwater plateau still remains. It stretches from the foreground in the photo above almost all the way to the bridge in the background.
The graph below shows what it looks like. The blue line represents the water level. The gold line represents the deepest part of the channel from where the Corps finished hydraulic dredging in September 2019 down to the FM1960 bridge.
Data compiled by RD Kissling and Tim Garfield use sonar and a 14 foot pole. The plateau stretches 3 miles. Removing the entire thing would be impossible, but a channel could be dredged through it that reconnects the river and lake.
Stephen Costello, the City’s flood czar, is working to formulate plans for the next phase of dredging and hopes to announce them this month. FEMA has said that it will pay for dredging an additional million cubic yards from the mouth bar area.
Current Spoils Going to Good Use – Expanding FM1960
Currently, the spoils are being moved upstream to Berry Madden’s property on the south side of the river, opposite River Grove Park in Kingwood. Madden has plenty of room for more. See below. He says that TxDoT will use spoils currently stored on his property to widen FM1960. That project should start in the next few days. He also says that TxDoT estimates they will use spoils at the rate that dredgers are currently bringing them to his property.
Mouth bar spoils on Berry Madden’s property between West Fork and FM1960
That should create even more room for storage on Madden’s property.
Next Dredging Targets
In addition to dredging a channel through the mouth bar, the City still needs to open up the mouths of several streams and drainage channels around Lake Houston. Rogers Gully, for instance, has formed it’s own mouth bar. See below.
Rogers Gully Mouth Bar. Photo taken July, 2020.
The City also needs somehow to address the dramatic growth of an East Fork San Jacinto Mouth Bar that grew 4,000 feet during Imelda.
Looking north at East Fork Mouth Bar south of East End Park. The blue water tower in the background is on Kingwood Drive.
Kudos to Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin, State Representative Dan Huberty, State Senator Brandon Creighton, and U.S. Congressman Dan Crenshaw who have worked tirelessly to address these issues since Harvey.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/5/2020
1164 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/20201105-DJI_0072.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=19001200adminadmin2020-11-05 13:47:582020-11-05 13:55:48Three Years Later, Above-Water Portion of West Fork Mouth Bar Virtually Gone
George P. Bush, Commissioner of the Texas General Land Office (GLO), announced a 30-day extension of a deadline for renegotiating its contract with the City of Houston for a variety of Harvey Recovery Programs. The new contract would let the City keep some of the programs it had been working on while returning others to the GLO.
By tag-teaming remaining work, GLO hopes to expend all available funds before HUD pulls back unspent money out of the $1.3 billion it allocated for aid within the City.
GLO worries about the slow rate of City’s progress and whether the City can meet HUD deadlines.
The City, on the other hand, keeps insisting it is about to speed up as it falls farther behind.
When HUD attempted to pull the programs away from the City, the City filed a lawsuit to prevent that. At stake: millions in management fees for the City and hundreds of millions in aid for Harvey victims.
Last month, Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin hinted that changes could be in the wind, but refused to release details until HUD and the GLO approved them.
Homeowners Worry About Cloud Over Programs
Meanwhile the cloud hanging over the programs worries thousands of homeowners who:
Qualified for aid but were not invited to submit an application
Have not been notified of their application’s status
Can’t get phone calls or emails returned from the City.
As of November 3, 2020, the City reports $776 million in available funds not yet committed for projects.
Three years after Harvey, the City reports it has issued only 82 reimbursement checks to homeowners for a total of $1.4 million. Either that number has not changed or the City has not updated it since October 23rd when I last posted on this subject. Neither has City updated the number of applications in its “pipeline” since August 31, 2020.
The GLO/CoH contract extension will let both sides work out a new plan that doesn’t leave disaster victims in limbo.
Statement from GLO Commissioner Bush
Commissioner Bush said: “The GLO has preliminarily agreed on the framework of an agreement with the City of Houston in the effort to help Houstonians recover from the worst natural disaster in our state’s history. The GLO has agreed to extend the current deadline for termination of the existing contract to better facilitate completion of this new agreement.”
Bush added, “The GLO’s focus continues to be making significant progress in putting federal dollars to work for the people of Houston. The GLO remains committed to helping Houston residents who are still in need of assistance with repair or reconstruction as well as moving other programs forward to successful completion within HUD’s mandatory timeline.”
GLO Still Taking Applications for Homeowner Assistance Program
In the meantime, the GLO will continue to operate the Homeowner Assistance Program to rebuild single family homes for Houston homeowners still needing assistance related to damage from Hurricane Harvey. Houston homeowners with a remaining Hurricane Harvey Housing need may find more information and apply at recovery.texas.gov/hap/houston.
Photo by Camille Pagel. Her children helped gut the kitchen instead of going to school after the Harvey flood.
GLO established the site above to help Harvey victims who have not yet submitted applications. Those who previously submitted applications which have become lost in space should call the numbers listed on the GLO site to determine their best course of action.
Note: the extension above affects contract negotiations between the City and GLO. It does not affect program deadlines.
Full Text of Interim Operations Agreement Between City, GLO
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Camille-Pagel-1.jpg?fit=800%2C1067&ssl=11067800adminadmin2020-11-04 17:58:102020-11-04 18:31:00GLO, City of Houston Agree to 30-Day Extension While They Work Out New Contract for Harvey Relief
If You Thought Hurricane Season Was Over, Think Again
The 3PM CST update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Eta shows the storm emerging into the Bay of Honduras this afternoon as a tropical depression. Then it will intensify into a tropical storm, head to Cuba, and take a left turn into the Gulf. Round and round she goes, where she stops…
Near Hurricane Strength Again in Florida Straits by Monday
The NHC expects Eta to impact southern Florida and the Florida Keys with high winds and heavy rainfall this weekend before it turns into the Gulf.
The NHC does not predict more than five days out. It also says that the level of uncertainty associated with this forecast is higher than usual.
Then Turning into Gulf
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “It is possible that Eta may eventually transition toward a sub-tropical system as it becomes increasingly entangled with the upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. For now NHC brings the system to a 65mph tropical storm over the Florida straits early next week with some of the intensity guidance showing slightly stronger solutions that would be near hurricane intensity.”
As of this morning, as this WeatherNerds spaghetti model shows, forecasts were all over the place. Later forecasts suggest it may be pushed east of the Houston Region. But again, it’s still a long way off.
So keep your eye on the Gulf. As Yogi Berra used to say, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” What goes for baseball goes for hurricane season – this year especially! Remember, Eta set a record for intensifying from a tropical storm into a major hurricane within hours before slamming into Nicaragua.
This Washington Post story says winds measured 140 mph when it came ashore. But the evening before satellite data suggested the storm contained 190 mph winds near its core. The storm maxed out the scales for satellite-derived hurricane-intensity data. NHC thought it was a Cat 5.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/5/2020 based on info from the NHC, WeatherNerds and HCFCD.
1164 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Three Years Later, Above-Water Portion of West Fork Mouth Bar Virtually Gone
Hurricane Harvey deposited a giant sand bar at the mouth of the San Jacinto West Fork that formed a dam behind the dam. More than 3000 feet long and 3000 feet wide, it backed water up into thousands of homes and businesses. Ever since then, removing it has become a major focus of flood mitigation efforts in the Lake Houston Area.
As of this morning, virtually all of the above water portion was gone. So were there two excavators working on it last month. The portions that remain are so narrow that they are starting to crumble into the lake. The remainder of the job will likely have to be performed from pontoons. See the pictures below, all taken on 11/5/2020.
What you see in the photo above is the last of an estimated 400,000 cubic yards that the City of Houston is removing.
The graph below shows what it looks like. The blue line represents the water level. The gold line represents the deepest part of the channel from where the Corps finished hydraulic dredging in September 2019 down to the FM1960 bridge.
Stephen Costello, the City’s flood czar, is working to formulate plans for the next phase of dredging and hopes to announce them this month. FEMA has said that it will pay for dredging an additional million cubic yards from the mouth bar area.
Current Spoils Going to Good Use – Expanding FM1960
Currently, the spoils are being moved upstream to Berry Madden’s property on the south side of the river, opposite River Grove Park in Kingwood. Madden has plenty of room for more. See below. He says that TxDoT will use spoils currently stored on his property to widen FM1960. That project should start in the next few days. He also says that TxDoT estimates they will use spoils at the rate that dredgers are currently bringing them to his property.
That should create even more room for storage on Madden’s property.
Next Dredging Targets
In addition to dredging a channel through the mouth bar, the City still needs to open up the mouths of several streams and drainage channels around Lake Houston. Rogers Gully, for instance, has formed it’s own mouth bar. See below.
The City also needs somehow to address the dramatic growth of an East Fork San Jacinto Mouth Bar that grew 4,000 feet during Imelda.
Kudos to Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin, State Representative Dan Huberty, State Senator Brandon Creighton, and U.S. Congressman Dan Crenshaw who have worked tirelessly to address these issues since Harvey.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/5/2020
1164 Days since Hurricane Harvey
GLO, City of Houston Agree to 30-Day Extension While They Work Out New Contract for Harvey Relief
George P. Bush, Commissioner of the Texas General Land Office (GLO), announced a 30-day extension of a deadline for renegotiating its contract with the City of Houston for a variety of Harvey Recovery Programs. The new contract would let the City keep some of the programs it had been working on while returning others to the GLO.
Origin of Conflict Affecting Aid Recipients
Houston and GLO have fought for months over the speed of the City’s handling of aid applications.
When HUD attempted to pull the programs away from the City, the City filed a lawsuit to prevent that. At stake: millions in management fees for the City and hundreds of millions in aid for Harvey victims.
Last month, Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin hinted that changes could be in the wind, but refused to release details until HUD and the GLO approved them.
Homeowners Worry About Cloud Over Programs
Meanwhile the cloud hanging over the programs worries thousands of homeowners who:
As of November 3, 2020, the City reports $776 million in available funds not yet committed for projects.
Only 82 Reimbursement Checks Written Since Harvey
Three years after Harvey, the City reports it has issued only 82 reimbursement checks to homeowners for a total of $1.4 million. Either that number has not changed or the City has not updated it since October 23rd when I last posted on this subject. Neither has City updated the number of applications in its “pipeline” since August 31, 2020.
Statement from GLO Commissioner Bush
Commissioner Bush said: “The GLO has preliminarily agreed on the framework of an agreement with the City of Houston in the effort to help Houstonians recover from the worst natural disaster in our state’s history. The GLO has agreed to extend the current deadline for termination of the existing contract to better facilitate completion of this new agreement.”
Bush added, “The GLO’s focus continues to be making significant progress in putting federal dollars to work for the people of Houston. The GLO remains committed to helping Houston residents who are still in need of assistance with repair or reconstruction as well as moving other programs forward to successful completion within HUD’s mandatory timeline.”
GLO Still Taking Applications for Homeowner Assistance Program
In the meantime, the GLO will continue to operate the Homeowner Assistance Program to rebuild single family homes for Houston homeowners still needing assistance related to damage from Hurricane Harvey. Houston homeowners with a remaining Hurricane Harvey Housing need may find more information and apply at recovery.texas.gov/hap/houston.
GLO established the site above to help Harvey victims who have not yet submitted applications. Those who previously submitted applications which have become lost in space should call the numbers listed on the GLO site to determine their best course of action.
Note: the extension above affects contract negotiations between the City and GLO. It does not affect program deadlines.
Full Text of Interim Operations Agreement Between City, GLO
Neither Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, nor Mayor Pro Tem Martin, has yet released a statement on this subject. But ReduceFlooding.com has obtained a copy of the interim operations agreement signed by Mayor Turner and Deputy Land Commissioner Mark A. Havens. This determines how both sides will move forward in the next month.
Overview: Who’s Doing What in Next Month
During the Extension Period which ends on December 6, 2020, the GLO will let the City continue administering funds under the:
During the Extension Period, the GLO will also let the City:
Other Terms of Interim Agreement
As part of the settlement, the City must:
Dismissing a lawsuit with prejudice would forbid the City from refiling its suit in the future. For other terms and conditions, see the full text of the proposed agreement.
Posted by Bob Rehak on November 3, 2020
1163 Days after Hurricane Harvey