Widespread heavy rainfall along and north of I-10 over the last 24 hours has resulted in rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches over much of that area. Pockets have received 4-5 inches. Those include northern Waller and western Montgomery Counties. Portions of Walker County received 4-6 inches.
Ongoing flooding through much of today closed several roads in low lying areas of northern Waller and Walker Counties. Run-off continues to progress down creeks and into mainstem rivers. Rises will continue along upper Spring Creek into tonight and Saturday. However, at the moment forecasters expect no significant flooding. See attached graphics for 24-hr rainfall totals and current channel status.
First Round Kicks Off Overnight
NWS satellite imagery shows moisture streaming up out of Mexico as of 7PM Friday. The area along the middle Texas coast from the coastal bend up to to about Wharton looks favorable for the formation of another round of heavy to excessive rainfall late tonight and early tomorrow. Models indicate this activity will occur mostly west of I-45 and south of I-10 into Saturday morning before it begins to weaken. Exactly how far northeast rain and heavy rain may spread is still in question. But according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, “The latest thinking indicates it will remain southwest of the areas hard hit today.”
Second Round of Storms Saturday Night into Sunday
Lindner predicts a weakening of the storm Saturday afternoon. But he warns to expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. He says they will invade the region from the southwest to northeast. Moisture levels will support heavy to excessive rainfall rates within any organized thunderstorms.
Rainfall Amounts
Expect additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches over the weekend with isolated totals reaching 4-6 inches…especially around the coastal bend and Matagorda Bay tonight into early Saturday.
Area Soils Now Saturated
I received 3.07 inches in my rain gage today and have standing water in my yard. Soils have become nearly saturated in areas that saw the greatest rainfall today, while areas around Galveston Bay have experienced little rainfall thus far. Heavy run-off in many areas north of I-10 will cause rises in several channels. Keep an eye on the East Fork of the San Jacinto River at FM 1485 into the weekend. The forecast there currently exceeds flood stage.
A good amount of water is routing into the West Fork of the San Jacinto also. But current forecasts keep the river from Conroe to Humble below flood stage. The SJRA is releasing water from Lake Conroe at almost 6000 cubic feet per second. Despite that, the lake level has risen almost a foot and a half today above its normal pool level.
As of 7PM 4/30/2021.
The areas north of the lake received some of the highest rainfall totals this morning. This lake is now 3.5 feet above where it was when the SJRA stopped the seasonal lowering last week. Had they now lowered the lake a foot, it would be even higher now. We can all learn from this experience.
Minor flooding will also be possible this evening along upper Spring Creek west of Hegar Rd with rural low lands near the creek inundated.
Additional rainfall over the weekend may change some of the current forecasts.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/30/21 at 8PM based on info from the NWS and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner
1340 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Rainfall-4.30.21.jpg?fit=1200%2C669&ssl=16691200adminadmin2021-04-30 19:45:422021-04-30 19:50:27Two More Rounds of Heavy Rain Yet to Come; Flash Flood Watch Extended Through Sunday
UPDATED AS OF 10PM THURSDAY – Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, warns that heavy rainfall potential will spread across the region tonight through the weekend.
Rainfall accumulations expected by NWS in next 5 days. Updated at 5:51PM Houston time on 4/29/2021.
National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of Southeast Texas tonight through Sunday morning. However, the risk is slight.
Most of the Houston region has a marginal or slight risk of flash flooding – less than 20%.
Lakes Houston, Conroe Being Lowered
Houston Public Works is currently lowering Lake Houston by 12 inches, from 42.5 feet to 41.5 feet in response to the newly updated forecast – 3 inches of rain in our watershed within 24 hours. Property owners along the lake should secure property along the shoreline. To monitor current water levels at Lake Houston, visit www.coastalwaterauthority.org.
The SJRA had stopped its seasonal release from Lake Conroe. Rains from last weekend pushed the lake back up past its normal full pool level of 201 feet. As of 7pm Thursday, the SJRA had not resumed releasing any water, but by 10pm it had.
Lake Conroe level as of 7pm on 4/29/2021
As of 10pm, SJRA had started releasing 530 cubic feet per second.
Inflow from Gulf Will Collide With Stalled Front over SE TX
“A slow-moving, upper-level, low-pressure system over the southwest will combine with a surface front that will move into southeast Texas later today,” says Lindner. He expects the fronts to stall over our area. He says they will produce numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms from late this afternoon into Sunday.
Onshore flow has increased moisture over the region with dewpoints running in the low to mid 70’s. The surface front extends from northeast Texas to near Laredo. It will move slowly into southeast Texas late this afternoon and then likely stall between downtown and the coast by Friday morning. Other disturbances, says Lindner, will ride along this frontal boundary toward the northeast helping to produce several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
With the upper level winds becoming increasing parallel to the stalling surface front and moisture levels remaining high into the weekend, the threat for heavy rainfall will be increasing. Storm motions are expected to slow on Friday, but coverage remains scattered, so some areas could see some decent rainfall while other get little.
Threat Remains Through Sunday
Expect widespread storms to develop on Saturday morning as the threat for cell training increases.
The slow moving upper level low will then move directly across the area on Saturday night into Sunday with additional rounds of thunderstorms…some of these storms could be severe along with more heavy rainfall.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible with isolated totals of 4-5 inches. With all the moisture in place, high rainfall rates could cause street flooding.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Lindner warns potentially higher totals are possible given the overall slow moving nature of the weather pattern.
Increasing Runoff as Grounds Saturate, Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding
The dry ground conditions now in place means soil will absorb much of this rainfall. Regardless, Lindner predicts rises on area creeks and bayous. He says that grounds will begin to saturate over the weekend yielding greater run-off as the storm wears on.
The National Weather Service has all of southeast Texas in a marginal risk for flash flooding starting Friday and into Saturday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/29/2021 based on information by Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner and the National Weather Service
1339 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/image001.gif?fit=800%2C561&ssl=1561800adminadmin2021-04-29 16:04:172021-04-29 22:20:56Heavy Rainfall Potential Tonight, Through Weekend
Flooding within the Halls Bayou watershed illustrates what happens when development, density, lack of detention and insufficient distance from streams put people and their property in harm’s way. Instead of protecting a strip of green space near the bayou years ago, developers built right up to the edge. As density increased and developers built further upstream without sufficient detention, people who crowded the Bayou then started to flood repeatedly.
As the images below show, once developed, the cost and time of mitigation increases exponentially.
All of that argues for better planning and the protection of green spaces that can accommodate future floods and flood mitigation projects throughout the region.
Halls Bayou Not Unique
This same scenario happened repeatedly in other Houston watersheds: Greens Bayou; Brays Bayou, White Oak Bayou, and Cypress Creek, for instance. But let’s save those for future posts. For now, let’s go back in time.
Solution Well Known for More than a Century
In 1913, recognizing the potential for continued growth, a well-known landscape architect, Arthur Comey created the first comprehensive plan for the Houston Park Commission. He observed that Houston ranked far behind other major U.S. cities in parkland. It had one acre of park for every 685 residents. Seattle was a distant second at 224 residents per acre.
For the most part, people have fixed their homes since the last big flood. These folks may be poor, but the vast majority take great pride in what they have.
The map below shows the route of Halls Bayou through surrounding mid-north neighborhoods. Homes are packed so close to the bayou that it’s hard to see it in places, so I outlined the route in red.
Route of Halls Bayou through mid-north part of Houston. Airline Drive is on left, I-45 in middle and US 59 on right.
Now, let’s superimpose floodplains over the same area.
Floodway = cross hatch, 100-year floodplain = aqua, and 500-year floodplain =tan.Map last updated in 2007 based on data from Tropical Storm Allison.
North to south along US 59 (on right), the floodplain extends almost 3 miles. And it will extend even farther when new maps based on Atlas 14 are officially released based on Harvey data. The image below shows what the area around US 59 and Halls looked like in 2002 shortly after Tropical Storm Allison.
Note subdivisions built right next to bayou.
Next, see how that area looks today where Halls Bayou crosses under US 59. Two large detention ponds exist where the subdivisions used to be.
Note the two large detention ponds, one on either side of the freeway. The one on the left was substantially completed in 2015 and the one on the right in 2018.
Each detention basin took about three years to build.
Time, Costs of Buyouts
Before HCFCD could construct the detention ponds, it had to buy out homes in adjacent subdivisions and demolish them. Buyouts near the detention areas above began in 2002 when HCFCD received a large grant from the federal government after Allison. Google Earth images show that the buyouts took at least another three years.
Then Flood Control had to get permits from the City of Houston to demolish the streets. That took additional years.
So from 2002 until the completion of construction took 13 to 16 years (2015 and 2018). But the construction itself took only 3 years.
Thus, the total project took 4-5X longer than construction.
$1 of Prevention Worth a $1000 of Flood Mitigation
This area started to develop in the 1940s. The earliest image in Google Earth (1944) shows that it was at the edge of the City then. With more wetlands and farm land to absorb rainfall, the flooding problems were probably not as bad. A few scattered subdivisions pressed against the edges of the bayou. But the lots were large. And had green space been set aside then, the story today might be different.
Halls Bayou in 1944. Note: only two subdivisions started to encroach on the bayou. Rest was rural.
Compare again the shot above with the one below for a dramatic example of infill development. The shot above is NOTHING like today’s below.
Compare the dramatic increase in density with the decrease in bayou width.
Just looking at these two maps, you can see how the dramatic increase in density limits flood mitigation possibilities and raises costs.
We no longer have any easy solutions.
To make matters worse, despite flooding, people often fight buyouts. Most people in neighborhoods like this depend on support networks of friends and family. They fear leaving those networks. Many date back generations.
Should Have Known Better
Developers and home buyers knew or should have known this area was flood prone. But still, they built or bought here at great risk to themselves, and ultimately at great cost to the community.
That raises the question: Why were people allowed to build so close to the bayou in the first place? Why wasn’t sufficient green space left along the bayou to widen it or build detention ponds?
There are no simple answers to that question. Residents may not have felt at risk until upstream development sent more water downstream faster. They may not have been knowledgeable enough about flooding to ask the right questions.
Some just wanted to live close to work. Some wanted to be near family and friends. Some needed the support. And some just pushed their luck because they liked the view or location and the lots were cheap. Regardless, everyone is paying the price for decisions often made decades ago.
Posted by Bob Rehak on April 28, 2021
1338 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Halls-Flood-Plains.jpg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=17931200adminadmin2021-04-28 15:50:252021-07-29 16:01:38Halls Bayou Illustrates Cost, Difficulty of Flood Mitigation in Overdeveloped Areas
Two More Rounds of Heavy Rain Yet to Come; Flash Flood Watch Extended Through Sunday
Heavy rainfall remains possible through Sunday.
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until Sunday morning for much of the area.
Widespread heavy rainfall along and north of I-10 over the last 24 hours has resulted in rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches over much of that area. Pockets have received 4-5 inches. Those include northern Waller and western Montgomery Counties. Portions of Walker County received 4-6 inches.
Ongoing flooding through much of today closed several roads in low lying areas of northern Waller and Walker Counties. Run-off continues to progress down creeks and into mainstem rivers. Rises will continue along upper Spring Creek into tonight and Saturday. However, at the moment forecasters expect no significant flooding. See attached graphics for 24-hr rainfall totals and current channel status.
First Round Kicks Off Overnight
NWS satellite imagery shows moisture streaming up out of Mexico as of 7PM Friday. The area along the middle Texas coast from the coastal bend up to to about Wharton looks favorable for the formation of another round of heavy to excessive rainfall late tonight and early tomorrow. Models indicate this activity will occur mostly west of I-45 and south of I-10 into Saturday morning before it begins to weaken. Exactly how far northeast rain and heavy rain may spread is still in question. But according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, “The latest thinking indicates it will remain southwest of the areas hard hit today.”
Second Round of Storms Saturday Night into Sunday
Lindner predicts a weakening of the storm Saturday afternoon. But he warns to expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. He says they will invade the region from the southwest to northeast. Moisture levels will support heavy to excessive rainfall rates within any organized thunderstorms.
Rainfall Amounts
Expect additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches over the weekend with isolated totals reaching 4-6 inches…especially around the coastal bend and Matagorda Bay tonight into early Saturday.
Area Soils Now Saturated
I received 3.07 inches in my rain gage today and have standing water in my yard. Soils have become nearly saturated in areas that saw the greatest rainfall today, while areas around Galveston Bay have experienced little rainfall thus far. Heavy run-off in many areas north of I-10 will cause rises in several channels. Keep an eye on the East Fork of the San Jacinto River at FM 1485 into the weekend. The forecast there currently exceeds flood stage.
A good amount of water is routing into the West Fork of the San Jacinto also. But current forecasts keep the river from Conroe to Humble below flood stage. The SJRA is releasing water from Lake Conroe at almost 6000 cubic feet per second. Despite that, the lake level has risen almost a foot and a half today above its normal pool level.
The areas north of the lake received some of the highest rainfall totals this morning. This lake is now 3.5 feet above where it was when the SJRA stopped the seasonal lowering last week. Had they now lowered the lake a foot, it would be even higher now. We can all learn from this experience.
Minor flooding will also be possible this evening along upper Spring Creek west of Hegar Rd with rural low lands near the creek inundated.
Additional rainfall over the weekend may change some of the current forecasts.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/30/21 at 8PM based on info from the NWS and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner
1340 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Heavy Rainfall Potential Tonight, Through Weekend
UPDATED AS OF 10PM THURSDAY – Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, warns that heavy rainfall potential will spread across the region tonight through the weekend.
National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of Southeast Texas tonight through Sunday morning. However, the risk is slight.
Lakes Houston, Conroe Being Lowered
Houston Public Works is currently lowering Lake Houston by 12 inches, from 42.5 feet to 41.5 feet in response to the newly updated forecast – 3 inches of rain in our watershed within 24 hours. Property owners along the lake should secure property along the shoreline. To monitor current water levels at Lake Houston, visit www.coastalwaterauthority.org.
The SJRA had stopped its seasonal release from Lake Conroe. Rains from last weekend pushed the lake back up past its normal full pool level of 201 feet. As of 7pm Thursday, the SJRA had not resumed releasing any water, but by 10pm it had.
To monitor SJRA releases, see the dashboard on their home page.
Inflow from Gulf Will Collide With Stalled Front over SE TX
“A slow-moving, upper-level, low-pressure system over the southwest will combine with a surface front that will move into southeast Texas later today,” says Lindner. He expects the fronts to stall over our area. He says they will produce numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms from late this afternoon into Sunday.
Onshore flow has increased moisture over the region with dewpoints running in the low to mid 70’s. The surface front extends from northeast Texas to near Laredo. It will move slowly into southeast Texas late this afternoon and then likely stall between downtown and the coast by Friday morning. Other disturbances, says Lindner, will ride along this frontal boundary toward the northeast helping to produce several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
With the upper level winds becoming increasing parallel to the stalling surface front and moisture levels remaining high into the weekend, the threat for heavy rainfall will be increasing. Storm motions are expected to slow on Friday, but coverage remains scattered, so some areas could see some decent rainfall while other get little.
Threat Remains Through Sunday
Expect widespread storms to develop on Saturday morning as the threat for cell training increases.
The slow moving upper level low will then move directly across the area on Saturday night into Sunday with additional rounds of thunderstorms…some of these storms could be severe along with more heavy rainfall.
Lindner warns potentially higher totals are possible given the overall slow moving nature of the weather pattern.
Increasing Runoff as Grounds Saturate, Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding
The dry ground conditions now in place means soil will absorb much of this rainfall. Regardless, Lindner predicts rises on area creeks and bayous. He says that grounds will begin to saturate over the weekend yielding greater run-off as the storm wears on.
The National Weather Service has all of southeast Texas in a marginal risk for flash flooding starting Friday and into Saturday.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/29/2021 based on information by Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner and the National Weather Service
1339 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Halls Bayou Illustrates Cost, Difficulty of Flood Mitigation in Overdeveloped Areas
Flooding within the Halls Bayou watershed illustrates what happens when development, density, lack of detention and insufficient distance from streams put people and their property in harm’s way. Instead of protecting a strip of green space near the bayou years ago, developers built right up to the edge. As density increased and developers built further upstream without sufficient detention, people who crowded the Bayou then started to flood repeatedly.
As the images below show, once developed, the cost and time of mitigation increases exponentially.
Halls Bayou Not Unique
This same scenario happened repeatedly in other Houston watersheds: Greens Bayou; Brays Bayou, White Oak Bayou, and Cypress Creek, for instance. But let’s save those for future posts. For now, let’s go back in time.
Solution Well Known for More than a Century
In 1913, recognizing the potential for continued growth, a well-known landscape architect, Arthur Comey created the first comprehensive plan for the Houston Park Commission. He observed that Houston ranked far behind other major U.S. cities in parkland. It had one acre of park for every 685 residents. Seattle was a distant second at 224 residents per acre.
To address this inequity, Comey’s plan included a visionary idea. Noting that the city’s network of bayous were already “natural parks,” he proposed a series of linear and large parks along their lengths.
As he wrote, the “bayous and creek valleys readily lend themselves to trails and parks and cannot so advantageously be used for any other purpose.”…
Unfortunately, developers ignored him.
About Halls Bayou
The Halls Bayou Watershed comprises a city within a city.
Frankly, as I drove through it last weekend to photograph flood mitigation projects, it felt much more vibrant than more affluent neighborhoods father to the north or south.
For the most part, people have fixed their homes since the last big flood. These folks may be poor, but the vast majority take great pride in what they have.
The map below shows the route of Halls Bayou through surrounding mid-north neighborhoods. Homes are packed so close to the bayou that it’s hard to see it in places, so I outlined the route in red.
Now, let’s superimpose floodplains over the same area.
North to south along US 59 (on right), the floodplain extends almost 3 miles. And it will extend even farther when new maps based on Atlas 14 are officially released based on Harvey data. The image below shows what the area around US 59 and Halls looked like in 2002 shortly after Tropical Storm Allison.
Next, see how that area looks today where Halls Bayou crosses under US 59. Two large detention ponds exist where the subdivisions used to be.
Each detention basin took about three years to build.
Time, Costs of Buyouts
Before HCFCD could construct the detention ponds, it had to buy out homes in adjacent subdivisions and demolish them. Buyouts near the detention areas above began in 2002 when HCFCD received a large grant from the federal government after Allison. Google Earth images show that the buyouts took at least another three years.
Then Flood Control had to get permits from the City of Houston to demolish the streets. That took additional years.
So from 2002 until the completion of construction took 13 to 16 years (2015 and 2018). But the construction itself took only 3 years.
$1 of Prevention Worth a $1000 of Flood Mitigation
This area started to develop in the 1940s. The earliest image in Google Earth (1944) shows that it was at the edge of the City then. With more wetlands and farm land to absorb rainfall, the flooding problems were probably not as bad. A few scattered subdivisions pressed against the edges of the bayou. But the lots were large. And had green space been set aside then, the story today might be different.
Compare again the shot above with the one below for a dramatic example of infill development. The shot above is NOTHING like today’s below.
Just looking at these two maps, you can see how the dramatic increase in density limits flood mitigation possibilities and raises costs.
To make matters worse, despite flooding, people often fight buyouts. Most people in neighborhoods like this depend on support networks of friends and family. They fear leaving those networks. Many date back generations.
Should Have Known Better
Developers and home buyers knew or should have known this area was flood prone. But still, they built or bought here at great risk to themselves, and ultimately at great cost to the community.
That raises the question: Why were people allowed to build so close to the bayou in the first place? Why wasn’t sufficient green space left along the bayou to widen it or build detention ponds?
There are no simple answers to that question. Residents may not have felt at risk until upstream development sent more water downstream faster. They may not have been knowledgeable enough about flooding to ask the right questions.
Some just wanted to live close to work. Some wanted to be near family and friends. Some needed the support. And some just pushed their luck because they liked the view or location and the lots were cheap. Regardless, everyone is paying the price for decisions often made decades ago.
Posted by Bob Rehak on April 28, 2021
1338 Days since Hurricane Harvey