Language In Engineering Report Has Nephew Izzy Baffled

The language of some engineering reports is more impenetrable than the armor of a battleship. My weird nephew Izzy floods badly. He was trying to slog through the Region 6 San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group DRAFT report and called for help today.

Marvel Comics It Ain’t

“Uncle Bob,” he complained, “This is @#$%&ing 295 pages long!”

“Put on your big-boy pants, Izzy,” I said. “Suck it up. I know it’s longer than a Spiderman comic, but you did apply for jobs as the Deputy County Administrator and Executive Director of the Flood Control District.”

“Yeah, but that was just to impress one of the dancers down at the Crystal Pistol.”

“Now the truth comes out!” I chuckled.

“Uncle Bob, you’re brain-shamin’ me.”

“I’m sorry, Izzy. Is there a problem beside the length?”

“Yeah, I can’t figure out what they’re trying to say.”

“That’s all?” I asked.

Izzy spat back, “They wanna spend $29 billion on the recommendations in here. You’d think they could afford $15 dollars an hour to hire a decent writer.”

The boy did have a point. But I explained, “Making it easy to understand wouldn’t make people think they were getting recommendations worth $29 billion.”

“They’re translating this thing into a dozen languages. You’d think English could be one of ’em.”

Nephew Izzy

“Is it too technical? Formulas and stuff?” I asked.

“No. It’s just confusing.” Izzy sometimes has trouble with the concept of “up.” So I said…

Izzy Cites Examples: Writer Paid by the Word?

“Give me an example, Izzy.”

He threw 295 pages down on my kitchen table. The dog-eared report was covered with notes. This was an amazing step up from Spiderman for Izzy. I was encouraged.

He turned to one of the pages. “Like this,” he said. “The most common types of projects in the region are channel improvement projects, which is inclusive of channel repair and channel conveyance improvement projects.”

My jaw dropped. Aside from the circular logic and redundancy, the subject and verb didn’t agree. “Projects is?” I asked. “Improvement projects include improvement projects? That writer must have been getting paid by the word,” I said. I was beginning to see Izzy’s point. “Show me another one, Iz.”

“Here!” he said, brightening now that he had an ally. Then he took a deep breath and said, “Due to significant increases in anticipated rainfall depth seen across the entire region due to the NOAA Atlas 14 as shown in Figure 2-4, change in rainfall depth was not included as a decision point for Flood Map Gap designations, as the change in rainfall amounts would qualify the whole region as a mapping gap since the effective FEMA mapping does not yet incorporate Atlas 14 rainfall.” 

“I’m surprised you could even get that out in one breath,” I said.  Izzy was turning blue and gasping. While he caught his breath, I counted up the words – 67. “There’s just no substitute for 67-word sentences when you’re trying to bluff your way through something you don’t know,” I said.

Impossible-to-Diagram Sentences

Izzy looked relieved. “So, I’m not so dumb after all, Uncle Bob?”

“I don’t think even my 4th grade English teacher, Mrs. Battaligni, could diagram that sentence, Izzy.”

“What do you think it means, Uncle Bob?”

“It means taxpayers should ask for their money back, Izzy.”

“Ya’ think? Cuz’ frankly I could use a tax refund right about now.”

“Don’t hold your breath, Izzy. It doesn’t work that way.”

“Well, how will I ever know if this will fix my flooding, Uncle Bob?”

Dream No Small Dreams

“It won’t, Izzy. The state has about a $1 billion budget that has to be split 15 ways. And these guys are recommending $29 billion in projects just for the San Jacinto watershed.”

“I know what that’s like.”

“How so?”

“I was sweeping up down at the Crystal Pistol last night and I told the manager I sure could use a new broom.”

“And?”

“He said it wasn’t in the budget. Maybe next year.”

“Maybe you should go to one of the Flood Planning Group’s open houses and ask them to explain.”

“When are they?”

“5:30 to 7:30 … two days next week.”

“That’ll never work.”

“Why?”

“Happy hour. My boss’ll never let me off. Too many beer-nut dishes to refill.”

Izzy Considers a Career Change

“Maybe you could get a job helping them write the final version of the report.”

“Ya’ think?” Izzy brightened and moved to the edge of his seat.

“They recommend spending another $200 million on more reports,” I said.

“Man, I could use some of that bank!” Then Izzy’s enthusiasm quickly vanished. Uncharacteristically, he confessed, “But I barely scraped by high-school English.”

“That makes you perfect,” I said. “You know how to write a 7-word sentence.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/22

1850 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Hurricane Likely in Caribbean Within 5 Days

A hurricane is likely in the Caribbean by early next week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity near the southern Windward Islands. The system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The disturbance should move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week. NHC puts chances of formation through five days at 90%. (See the elongated red oval off the coast of South America below.)

NHC calls this Invest 98L. Invest stands for Area of Investigation.

From National Hurricane Center as of 2pm EDT September 21, 2022

Satellite Image Shows Interaction between 98L and Fiona

The Windward Islands are already seeing heavy rainfall and gusty winds from 98L. It will bring heavy rainfall to northern Venezuela and Colombia within the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will fly into the system this evening to collect more information.

The satellite image below shows 98L and Fiona, the major hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico earlier this week.

As of 2:50 PM Houston Time, satellite image shows Fiona moving north toward Bermuda

In the image above, you can actually see the outflow from Fiona impacting 98L. It is preventing thunderstorms from organizing in 98L at the moment, but as Fiona moves north (see below), conditions will become more favorable for 98L.

Fiona is Cat 4, Heading North

Fiona is still packing winds of 130 mph. That puts it just inside Category 4 as of Wednesday 9/21/22 at 5PM.

NHC predicts Fiona will clip Bermuda and then head due north. Fiona should hit Canada with topical storm force winds this weekend. In the meantime, pray for people in Bermuda. Cat 4 storms can create catastrophic damage and cause power outages that last for weeks or months.

Probabilities for continued hurricane force winds along Fiona’s projected path during next 5 days.

Invest 98L Expected to Track into Caribbean and Gulf

As of this morning, all major models except one showed 98L moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

Source: TropicalTidbits.com via Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.

Along its route through the Caribbean, 98L will find plenty of warm water. The chart below shows deviation from normal sea surface temperatures for this time of year. This will help fuel the storm.

As of 9/21/22

Most models forecast development of 98L this weekend as the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. As the 98L reaches the central Caribbean, shear will begin to decrease. Additionally, oceanic heat content in the Caribbean is some of the highest in the entire Atlantic basin. This deep warm water will help fuel intensification.

NOAA’s HWRF hurricane model shows intensification from a low end tropical storm to major hurricane in a 24-36 hour period. Western Caribbean systems this time of year are notorious for significant deepening in a short amount of time.

From NOAA as of 5pm on 9/21/22

Florida More Likely Target Than Texas at this Time

However, Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says that, based on historical norms, hurricanes originating in the Caribbean this time of year tend to move toward Florida … less so toward Texas. The diagram below bears that out. It shows the points of origin and tracks for hurricanes developing in this 10 day period over 165 years.

From NOAA Climatology Page

“Hurricane impacts to the Texas coast this time of year tend to be from the Bay of Campeche and not from the western Caribbean Sea.”

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Historical norms aside, Lindner says 98L’s longer term track will depend on how it eventually interacts with weather over the eastern U.S. At this time, Lindner believes a frontal boundary will approach the Houston area early next week and help guide 98L east of Texas.

Still, keep your eyes on the Gulf and stay prepared in case something changes.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/22 at 5PM

1849 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flood- and Garcia-Bond Updates

The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) August update to County Commissioners on the progress of the 2018 flood bond shows a continued lopsided distribution of funds in favor of low-to-moderate income (LMI) watersheds. It also showed slowing activity overall.

Separately, the County has posted a new website and scheduled input sessions for Adrian Garcia’s proposed new $1.2 billion bond proposition(s). The dates of input sessions relative to the legislative deadline for bond language make it clear that the bond language will not reflect much voter input.

Lopsided Distribution of Funds Continues for Flood Bond

Five watersheds with a majority of LMI residents have received 39% of all the flood bond spending. LMI is defined as “below median income for the region.” Brays, Greens, White Oak, Halls and Hunting watersheds received a total of $430.4 million – an average of $86 million each. Together, the other 18 watersheds received $443.5 million – an average of $24.6 million each. Countywide projects received the rest – $217 million.

Page 9 from the August Flood Bond Update.
Data transferred from map above and arranged by total spending per watershed.

I’ve said it before. Facts do not support the political narrative that affluent watersheds get all the funding. To see what the funding in those five LMI watersheds helped buy, see the photos in these posts.

Flood-Bond Progress Appears to Slow

During the month, HCFCD:

  • Awarded only one new construction contract valued at $1 million.
  • Awarded three new agreements with other contractors but spent $0 with them.
  • Completed 19 buyouts compared to 21 the previous month.
  • Spent $2.4 million on buyouts compared to $6.6 million the previous month.

The total value of active capital improvement construction projects fell to $225.8 million from $231.9 million in July and $235.6 million in June. Out of that, the Lake Houston Area still only has $2,000 or 0.0009% of the total. Although that should improve in the future, it could also worsen, depending on election outcomes in November.

Page 12 from full update.

Total reported bond spending increased to $1.1 billion, up from $1.06 billion the previous month, an increase (with rounding) of slightly more than $40 million.

Overall progress of the bond program? 23.5% complete – four years into a 10-year program.

However, HCFCD believes it is only slightly behind schedule. The District’s key performance indicators stayed steady at .97 percent.

Major-Maintenance Flood-Bond Spending Holds Steady, but Still Lopsided

Major maintenance projects held fairly steady. HCFCD spent $78.4 million in August compared to $78.8 million in July. But there’s only one maintenance project in the entire northeastern section of the county – some drainage system repairs in the Jackson Bayou watershed with an unspecified value. It’s unspecified because the report lumps it together with two projects in the Halls Bayou watershed. The total for all three is about $1 million. Assuming each project got one third of that million, the entire northeastern section of the county received 0.42% of all the maintenance spending from the bond last month.

Active maintenance projects reported on page 11 of full report.

The largest group of maintenance projects is along Cypress Creek and its tributaries. There are 14 projects valued at $48.1 million. That’s 61.4% of the major-maintenance total.

Input Sessions for Garcia-Bond

Separately, Adrian Garcia has proposed another $1.2 billion bond – even though hundreds of millions remain from the 2015 bond. Unlike the 2018 Flood Bond, which specified projects in each watershed so people knew what they were supposedly getting, Garcia’s bond contains only three high-level categories split up into Propositions A, B, and C. They include:

  • A) Public safety: $100 million
  • B) Transportation: $900 million
  • C) Parks and Trails: $200 million

That’s right. Garcia wants to spend twice as much on hike-and-bike trails as public safety.

The county will hold four open houses in each of the four precincts during the next five weeks. It will also hold four virtual open houses. For a complete schedule, see HarrisCounty2022Bond.org.

The one input session in the northeastern section of Precinct 3 will be at the Humble Civic Center at 6PM on October 4th. Neither Kingwood, Huffman, Atascocita, nor Crosby will have its own input session.

Bond Language Will Not Reflect Voter Input

The county must post bond language by September 30 at the latest. But the input sessions run until October 20th. Early voting starts on October 24. And Election Day is November 8. So the bond language will not reflect much voter input. Neither the county, nor media, will have much time to digest voter input. It’s pure political theater.

The bond website simply says that “Input will be shared with Harris County Precinct staff as they make decisions regarding future projects.”

https://harriscounty2022bond.org

The bond website provides absolutely no detail about SPECIFIC PROJECTS or WHERE projects would be – despite promises made by the County Administrator to Commissioners Court.

In contrast, my records show that Harris County Flood Control under Judge Ed Emmett posted a comprehensive list of projects almost two full months before the Flood Bond Referendum in 2018.

Equity and Political Leaning Will Guide Distribution of Garcia-Bond Funds

Commissioners Ramsey and Cagle argued for months to delay the bond referendum until details could be nailed down, but Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis refused.

During debate in Commissioners Court, it became clear that Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis intend to use “equity principles” to divvy up the money, not just to prioritize the start date of projects as they did with the 2018 flood bond. Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis even passed a motion that would give Democratic-leaning Precincts about 40% more money than Republican-leaning Precincts. For instance, Precinct 3 would be guaranteed only $220 million. That’s 18% of the total even though P3 has 47% of the county’s unincorporated area to maintain, improve and patrol.

Why Trust in Government is Eroding

During debate, Rodney Ellis even bragged about how he redefined “equitable distribution of funds” in the 2018 Flood Bond text after the election.

My takeaway: Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis don’t want to be held accountable. They talk transparency, but this is nothing more than a slush fund. And this is why trust in government is eroding in my humble opinion.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/20/22

1848 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.