This morning’s 7 a.m. report from Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, indicates that the severe weather threat predicted yesterday for Houston has shifted southwest toward Matagorda Bay and offshore. However, showers and thunderstorms will increase through the day. And few of the storms could be strong to severe.
Radar Image Shows Gap Between Storms at 11 AM
Radar images at 11 a.m. confirm that two major storms will not converge where predicted yesterday.
RadarScope image shows storms predicted yesterday to converge over Houston have diverged.
Activity along the coast should move eastward this morning while a second line of storms moves from central Texas toward Houston. The offshore warm front did not move as far inland as expected overnight.
Tornado Threat Limited, But Hail Possible
Lindner thinks the severe weather and tornado threat to the Houston area is fairly limited today, although the cooling of the air column may result in the threat for some hail with lingering storms into the evening hours.
Additional showers will develop ahead of this main line, but concerns yesterday for supercell structures appear lower today and confined to Matagorda, Jackson, Wharton, and Calhoun Counties.
Lindner now expects rainfall of 1-2 inches over the Houston area. Given current drought conditions, it is much needed.
Rainfall rates offshore have averaged 2-4 inches per hour, but that storm should remain offshore, he says.
The main line of approaching weather should clear the Houston region by 4:00 p.m., but areas north of I-10 could see additional showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours.
A few light rain showers or drizzle east of I-45 may linger into Saturday. This coupled with cold air advection and north winds of 10-15mph may lock temperatures in the upper 50’s/low 60’s on Saturday. However, where the clouds are able to clear, temperatures will warm into the mid 70’s. We could see significant differences in temperature over a short distance.
Skies should clear Saturday night into Sunday with cool conditions in place for a mild and dry Halloween.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/28/22 based on reports from the NWS and Harris County
1886 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Screenshot-2022-10-28-at-10.54.42-AM.jpg?fit=1125%2C2200&ssl=122001125adminadmin2022-10-28 12:02:342022-10-28 12:02:41Highest Risk for Severe Weather Shifts SW and Offshore
Update: 10/28/22 11am: Today’s reports indicate the highest severe storm risk is shifting SW of Houston and offshore. Experts now predict 1-2 inches of rain for the Houston area today.Areas offshore are already getting 2-4 inches per hour.
Tomorrow will likely bring strong thunderstorms. Rainfall rates could exceed the capacity of street drains leading to localized street flooding. And the severe weather may also spin up some tornados, according to Harris County’s meteorologist and the National Weather Service (NWS).
Heavy Rainfall
NWS predicts two to three inches of rain could fall on Friday, as warm, moist air pushing in from the Gulf collides with a cold front pushing in from the northwest. Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, predicts the worst period for us will be Friday afternoon.
Tornados Possible
The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, issued this warning for Friday . It shows a marginal risk of severe weather for the entire Houston area and a slightly higher risk for areas south and west of us.
Reasons for Concern
For the weather wonks reading this, Lindner cites an unusual convergence of storm systems at different levels of the atmosphere.
A trough will begin to move eastward toward Texas later today. Surface pressures will begin to fall this afternoon as low pressure develops ahead of the approaching mid-level low. Southeast winds will increase today, letting Gulf moisture quickly return to coastal Texas.
As the mid-level low approaches us, it will meet the northward-moving, moisture-laden warm front moving in from the Gulf.
Severe threats will be highest along the boundary. Tropical moisture will march quickly northward tonight on a 30-knot low level jet. Precipitable waters – the amount of moisture in a column of air – will equal 1.8 inches by Friday morning over much of the region.
As large-scale lift increases over the developing warm sector, showers and thunderstorms will develop from southwest to northeast across the region.
The cold front associated with the mid-level low will sweep west to east across southeast Texas on Friday afternoon, touching off more thunderstorms. The front will slow Friday night, so showers will linger over the area.
Severe Threat:
The surface low approaching from the northwest will meet the warm front coming from the opposite direction along a NW to SE axis on Friday. This warm front will extend from near San Antonio to near Freeport during the day and produce strong to severe thunderstorms. Low-level winds near the warm front will circle back toward the ESE and enhance low-level storm rotation.
Such collisions are notorious for tornado production, according to Lindner. Discrete cells may develop ahead of the line of storms approaching from the west. The location of the greatest severe risk will depend on where the warm front sets up Friday morning. Areas along and south of the front will have the highest risk.
If the warm front moves just a few miles farther north, it will increase risk to the Houston metro area. Kingwood was struck by tornados in a similar setup earlier this year.
Damaging winds will be the main threat. The worst of the storms should be over by 3-5 pm Friday, but lighter rains may linger well into the evening hours.
Heavy Rainfall:
Moisture will deepen Thursday into Friday. By Friday morning, a saturated air mass will be in place over the region. “Strong divergent lift coupled with low-level inflow will increase the potential for heavy rainfall along with cell training from southwest to northeast.”
Lindner describes himself as “aways wary of such setups.” They can help anchor and train convection.
The overall pattern favors supercell formation with both a tornado and heavy rainfall risk.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
These storms could become significant rainfall producers – if they become sustained along the warm frontal boundary. The good news is that the ground is dry and can handle several inches of rainfall. “However, rainfall rates may exceed localized drainage capacities and result in some street flooding regardless of the dry ground conditions,” says Lindner.
Weekend:
Cloudiness should linger much of Saturday keeping temperatures in the 50’s under northerly winds. South of the cloud line temperatures will warm into the 70’s. Where that line will be Saturday is hard to determine. Clouds should erode Saturday night with mostly clear skies. Sunday will be mild.
Tropics:
The hurricane season has another month to go. It isn’t over yet! The National Hurricane Center now gives an area of low pressure moving WNW across the Caribbean a 50% chance of turning into a tropical depression in the next five days. No one is yet predicting what will happen if it does.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/27/22based on information from Jeff Lindner, NWS, and NHC
1885 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Rainfall-10.28.22.png?fit=793%2C561&ssl=1561793adminadmin2022-10-27 14:16:182022-10-28 10:52:03Strong Thunderstorms, Street Flooding, Tornados Possible Tomorrow
Before you vote this year, review these two graphs and a map. They should tell you everything you need to know about flooding and flood mitigation in the Lake Houston Area. They should also motivate you to vote if you are on the sidelines.
Highest Flooding
The first graph shows “feet above flood stage” during Hurricane Harvey at numerous gages on different watersheds around Harris county. It shows how high floodwater got AFTER it came “out of banks.”
The San Jacinto West Fork at US59 had THE highest flooding in Harris County during Harvey.
Lowest Funding
The second shows the amount of flood-mitigation dollars spent in each Harris County watershed on right-of-way acquisition and construction for flood-mitigation in the first half of this year. Those activities help mitigate flooding as opposed to studies which frequently never get acted upon.
The reversal is stunning.
Data obtained via FOIA Request. San Jacinto, the county’s largest watershed, received only $200,000. Only Cedar Bayou received less at $160,000.
Worst Last
The San Jacinto Watershed moves from the high side of the flooding graph to the low side of the funding graph.
But why the first six months of this year? I’ve talked ad nauseam about spending trends going back decades. This window shows us current priorities. Especially during an election year when you would think the County Judge would try to appeal to as many people as possible.
Regardless of how you feel about the equity prioritization framework, you would think that in a ten-year bond program, areas like Lake Houston would start seeing some real benefit by now. Narrowing down the range of spending helps provide better insight into the priorities of County Judge Lina Hidalgo. She’s the deciding vote on Commissioners Court.
How to Punish The Opposition
People are saying, “OK, I’ve waited patiently. When will I see some benefit from the 2018 flood bond?” That was more than four years ago already.
Unfortunately, the answer is “no time soon.” The map below shows current active Flood-Control capital-improvement construction projects and how the three Democrats on Commissioners Court have used their majority to punish Republican-leaning areas.
Maintenance projects are shown in orange. And capital-improvement projects appear purple.
Flood Control has 20 active construction projects in the capital-improvement category. Of those:
Republican Jack Cagle’s Precinct 4 has one.
Republican Tom Ramsey’s Precinct 3 has one.
Democrats Rodney Ellis and Adrian Garcia split the other 18 among themselves.
The only way for people in Precincts 3 and 4 to right this wrong is to replace Judge Hidalgo who is on the ballot running against Republican Alexandra Mealer.
If Hidalgo and Garcia are re-elected, we have four more years of political punishment to look forward to.
So, please vote on or before November 8.
To review your ballot choices, go to HarrisVotes.com and study who and what will be on the ballot in your area this year. Yesterday’s polls show the two candidates for judge essentially tied within the margin of error. Heavy turnout in the Lake Houston Area could swing this election.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/26/22
1884 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/First-Half-22-Construction-ROW.jpg?fit=1200%2C789&ssl=17891200adminadmin2022-10-26 16:53:032022-10-28 12:41:33All You Need to Know About Flooding Before You Vote
Highest Risk for Severe Weather Shifts SW and Offshore
This morning’s 7 a.m. report from Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, indicates that the severe weather threat predicted yesterday for Houston has shifted southwest toward Matagorda Bay and offshore. However, showers and thunderstorms will increase through the day. And few of the storms could be strong to severe.
Radar Image Shows Gap Between Storms at 11 AM
Radar images at 11 a.m. confirm that two major storms will not converge where predicted yesterday.
Activity along the coast should move eastward this morning while a second line of storms moves from central Texas toward Houston. The offshore warm front did not move as far inland as expected overnight.
Tornado Threat Limited, But Hail Possible
Lindner thinks the severe weather and tornado threat to the Houston area is fairly limited today, although the cooling of the air column may result in the threat for some hail with lingering storms into the evening hours.
Additional showers will develop ahead of this main line, but concerns yesterday for supercell structures appear lower today and confined to Matagorda, Jackson, Wharton, and Calhoun Counties.
1-2 Inches of Much-Needed Rain Likely
Lindner now expects rainfall of 1-2 inches over the Houston area. Given current drought conditions, it is much needed.
Rainfall rates offshore have averaged 2-4 inches per hour, but that storm should remain offshore, he says.
The main line of approaching weather should clear the Houston region by 4:00 p.m., but areas north of I-10 could see additional showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours.
A few light rain showers or drizzle east of I-45 may linger into Saturday. This coupled with cold air advection and north winds of 10-15mph may lock temperatures in the upper 50’s/low 60’s on Saturday. However, where the clouds are able to clear, temperatures will warm into the mid 70’s. We could see significant differences in temperature over a short distance.
Skies should clear Saturday night into Sunday with cool conditions in place for a mild and dry Halloween.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/28/22 based on reports from the NWS and Harris County
1886 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Strong Thunderstorms, Street Flooding, Tornados Possible Tomorrow
Update: 10/28/22 11am: Today’s reports indicate the highest severe storm risk is shifting SW of Houston and offshore. Experts now predict 1-2 inches of rain for the Houston area today. Areas offshore are already getting 2-4 inches per hour.
Tomorrow will likely bring strong thunderstorms. Rainfall rates could exceed the capacity of street drains leading to localized street flooding. And the severe weather may also spin up some tornados, according to Harris County’s meteorologist and the National Weather Service (NWS).
Heavy Rainfall
NWS predicts two to three inches of rain could fall on Friday, as warm, moist air pushing in from the Gulf collides with a cold front pushing in from the northwest. Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist, predicts the worst period for us will be Friday afternoon.
Tornados Possible
The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, issued this warning for Friday . It shows a marginal risk of severe weather for the entire Houston area and a slightly higher risk for areas south and west of us.
Reasons for Concern
For the weather wonks reading this, Lindner cites an unusual convergence of storm systems at different levels of the atmosphere.
A trough will begin to move eastward toward Texas later today. Surface pressures will begin to fall this afternoon as low pressure develops ahead of the approaching mid-level low. Southeast winds will increase today, letting Gulf moisture quickly return to coastal Texas.
As the mid-level low approaches us, it will meet the northward-moving, moisture-laden warm front moving in from the Gulf.
Severe threats will be highest along the boundary. Tropical moisture will march quickly northward tonight on a 30-knot low level jet. Precipitable waters – the amount of moisture in a column of air – will equal 1.8 inches by Friday morning over much of the region.
As large-scale lift increases over the developing warm sector, showers and thunderstorms will develop from southwest to northeast across the region.
The cold front associated with the mid-level low will sweep west to east across southeast Texas on Friday afternoon, touching off more thunderstorms. The front will slow Friday night, so showers will linger over the area.
Severe Threat:
The surface low approaching from the northwest will meet the warm front coming from the opposite direction along a NW to SE axis on Friday. This warm front will extend from near San Antonio to near Freeport during the day and produce strong to severe thunderstorms. Low-level winds near the warm front will circle back toward the ESE and enhance low-level storm rotation.
Such collisions are notorious for tornado production, according to Lindner. Discrete cells may develop ahead of the line of storms approaching from the west. The location of the greatest severe risk will depend on where the warm front sets up Friday morning. Areas along and south of the front will have the highest risk.
If the warm front moves just a few miles farther north, it will increase risk to the Houston metro area. Kingwood was struck by tornados in a similar setup earlier this year.
Damaging winds will be the main threat. The worst of the storms should be over by 3-5 pm Friday, but lighter rains may linger well into the evening hours.
Heavy Rainfall:
Moisture will deepen Thursday into Friday. By Friday morning, a saturated air mass will be in place over the region. “Strong divergent lift coupled with low-level inflow will increase the potential for heavy rainfall along with cell training from southwest to northeast.”
Lindner describes himself as “aways wary of such setups.” They can help anchor and train convection.
These storms could become significant rainfall producers – if they become sustained along the warm frontal boundary. The good news is that the ground is dry and can handle several inches of rainfall. “However, rainfall rates may exceed localized drainage capacities and result in some street flooding regardless of the dry ground conditions,” says Lindner.
Weekend:
Cloudiness should linger much of Saturday keeping temperatures in the 50’s under northerly winds. South of the cloud line temperatures will warm into the 70’s. Where that line will be Saturday is hard to determine. Clouds should erode Saturday night with mostly clear skies. Sunday will be mild.
Tropics:
The hurricane season has another month to go. It isn’t over yet! The National Hurricane Center now gives an area of low pressure moving WNW across the Caribbean a 50% chance of turning into a tropical depression in the next five days. No one is yet predicting what will happen if it does.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/27/22 based on information from Jeff Lindner, NWS, and NHC
1885 Days since Hurricane Harvey
All You Need to Know About Flooding Before You Vote
Before you vote this year, review these two graphs and a map. They should tell you everything you need to know about flooding and flood mitigation in the Lake Houston Area. They should also motivate you to vote if you are on the sidelines.
Highest Flooding
The first graph shows “feet above flood stage” during Hurricane Harvey at numerous gages on different watersheds around Harris county. It shows how high floodwater got AFTER it came “out of banks.”
Lowest Funding
The second shows the amount of flood-mitigation dollars spent in each Harris County watershed on right-of-way acquisition and construction for flood-mitigation in the first half of this year. Those activities help mitigate flooding as opposed to studies which frequently never get acted upon.
Worst Last
The San Jacinto Watershed moves from the high side of the flooding graph to the low side of the funding graph.
But why the first six months of this year? I’ve talked ad nauseam about spending trends going back decades. This window shows us current priorities. Especially during an election year when you would think the County Judge would try to appeal to as many people as possible.
Regardless of how you feel about the equity prioritization framework, you would think that in a ten-year bond program, areas like Lake Houston would start seeing some real benefit by now. Narrowing down the range of spending helps provide better insight into the priorities of County Judge Lina Hidalgo. She’s the deciding vote on Commissioners Court.
How to Punish The Opposition
People are saying, “OK, I’ve waited patiently. When will I see some benefit from the 2018 flood bond?” That was more than four years ago already.
Unfortunately, the answer is “no time soon.” The map below shows current active Flood-Control capital-improvement construction projects and how the three Democrats on Commissioners Court have used their majority to punish Republican-leaning areas.
Maintenance projects are shown in orange. And capital-improvement projects appear purple.
Flood Control has 20 active construction projects in the capital-improvement category. Of those:
And Judge Lina Hidalgo allows it.
The only way for people in Precincts 3 and 4 to right this wrong is to replace Judge Hidalgo who is on the ballot running against Republican Alexandra Mealer.
So, please vote on or before November 8.
To review your ballot choices, go to HarrisVotes.com and study who and what will be on the ballot in your area this year. Yesterday’s polls show the two candidates for judge essentially tied within the margin of error. Heavy turnout in the Lake Houston Area could swing this election.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/26/22
1884 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.