RadarScope Pro image at 11am 10/29/22

Highest Risk for Severe Weather Shifts SW and Offshore

This morning’s 7 a.m. report from Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, indicates that the severe weather threat predicted yesterday for Houston has shifted southwest toward Matagorda Bay and offshore. However, showers and thunderstorms will increase through the day. And few of the storms could be strong to severe.

Radar Image Shows Gap Between Storms at 11 AM

Radar images at 11 a.m. confirm that two major storms will not converge where predicted yesterday.

RadarScope Pro image at 11am 10/29/22
RadarScope image shows storms predicted yesterday to converge over Houston have diverged.

Activity along the coast should move eastward this morning while a second line of storms moves from central Texas toward Houston. The offshore warm front did not move as far inland as expected overnight.

Tornado Threat Limited, But Hail Possible

Lindner thinks the severe weather and tornado threat to the Houston area is fairly limited today, although the cooling of the air column may result in the threat for some hail with lingering storms into the evening hours.

Additional showers will develop ahead of this main line, but concerns yesterday for supercell structures appear lower today and confined to Matagorda, Jackson, Wharton, and Calhoun Counties.

Severe weather risk predicted by NWS Storm Prediction Center as of 1am on 10/28/22
Storm Prediction Center forecast as of noon on 10.28.22

1-2 Inches of Much-Needed Rain Likely

Lindner now expects rainfall of 1-2 inches over the Houston area. Given current drought conditions, it is much needed.

Rainfall rates offshore have averaged 2-4 inches per hour, but that storm should remain offshore, he says.

The main line of approaching weather should clear the Houston region by 4:00 p.m., but areas north of I-10 could see additional showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours.

A few light rain showers or drizzle east of I-45 may linger into Saturday. This coupled with cold air advection and north winds of 10-15mph may lock temperatures in the upper 50’s/low 60’s on Saturday. However, where the clouds are able to clear, temperatures will warm into the mid 70’s. We could see significant differences in temperature over a short distance.

Skies should clear Saturday night into Sunday with cool conditions in place for a mild and dry Halloween.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/28/22 based on reports from the NWS and Harris County

1886 Days since Hurricane Harvey