An analysis of Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) and partner spending since 2000 reveals striking contrasts between watersheds in terms of where flood-mitigation dollars have gone.
Watersheds vary as much as 130 to 1 since 2000 and almost as much since Harvey. Most watersheds remained relatively constant in the rankings during the different time periods. However, a few have shifted up or down a few positions as land was acquired for projects or construction kicked off.
Data below includes spending by HCFCD and its partners from 1/1/2000 to 6/30/2023.
Main Takeaways from the Data
The big stories:
Since 2000, the top four watersheds received more flood-mitigation dollars than all 19 others put together. The top four include: Brays, Greens, and White Oak Bayous, and Cypress Creek.
Harris County’s Equity Prioritization gives weight to race and low-income areas, but not flood damage, the severity of flooding, or protection of infrastructure.
San Jacinto Gets Above Average Damage, Below Average Funding
The San Jacinto ranks below the averages (before 2000 and since Harvey) for flood-mitigation dollars – despite ranking 8th in damaged structures among all 23 watersheds. Damage totals include five major storms (Allison, Memorial Day, Tax Day, Harvey and Imelda).
Compiled from HCFCD Federal Reports
Watersheds Ranked by Funding Since 2000
Here’s how the funding looks in graphs and tables. All data was obtained from HCFCD via FOIA requests.
Data obtained from HCFCD via FOIA requests. Includes Harris County and partner spending.
Here’s the actual data if you want to see exactly how much your watershed received.
From 1/1/2000 through 6/30/23
Watersheds Ranked by Funding Since Harvey
Now let’s look at the how spending shifted after Harvey. Not much, at least relatively speaking.
Includes Harris County and partner spending. San Jacinto climbed two spots, but it is still barely above the median and far below the average.
Here are the actual totals for each watershed shown in the graph above.
Spending from 17Q3 to 23Q2 inclusive.
Feet above Flood Stage
Now let’s look at the severity of flooding. The chart below measures feet above flood stage at different Harris County gages.
Flood Stage is the level at which a river, stream or channel comes out of its banks.
Harvey flooded 6 of 9 buildings at Lone Star College/Kingwood. Repairs cost a total of $60 million.I-69 Bridge replacement after Harvey. Repairs took 11 months creating massive delays and detours.Union Pacific Railroad Bridge that parallels US59 was destroyed and required complete replacement.Alspaugh’s Hardware during HarveyNew HEB shopping center 1.5 miles from the San Jacinto West Fork was under more than 7 feet of water during Harvey.
Six years after Harvey, many of the commercial areas in Kingwood still haven’t fully recovered. Anchor stores remain empty in three of five shopping centers on Kingwood Drive between Town Center and US59.
Achieving True Equity
While I’m sympathetic to the plight of poorer neighborhoods, I cringe at the self-serving definition of equity used by a Democratic-dominated Commissioners Court to deny funding to the hardest hit area in the county.
We need a system that’s fair to all, not just some. Anything less will perpetuate racial distrust. This is a public safety issue and public safety should not be politicized.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/30/23
2223 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Screenshot-2023-09-30-at-7.23.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?fit=1474%2C880&ssl=18801474adminadmin2023-09-30 09:15:542023-09-30 09:32:42Where Flood-Mitigation Dollars Have Really Gone
Weather buffs could soon be treated to a rare event: the Fujiwhara Effect. That’s when one tropical storm collides with another. Topical Storm Philippe is being overtaken by the newly formed Tropical Storm Rina. See the satellite image below taken around 12:30 PM CDT.
12:20 pm Houston timeTwo hours and forty minutes later.
Will They Merge?
I asked Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner what happens in such a case. His response:
“Generally speaking the weaker system will rotate around the stronger system. This is known as the Fujiwhara Effect.”
Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner
Wikipedia offers a great description of this rare event and some of the parameters necessary for it to occur.
“The effect occurs,” says Wikipedia, when two nearby cyclonicvortices move around each other and close the distance between the circulations of their corresponding low-pressure areas. The effect is named after Sakuhei Fujiwhara, the Japanese meteorologist who initially described the effect. Binary interaction of smaller circulations can cause the development of a larger cyclone, or cause two cyclones to merge into one. … Tropical cyclones typically interact within 870 mi. of each other.”
These storms are already within that radius. At this hour (3:30 PM CDT on 9/28/23), the centers of Philippe and Rina are 631 miles apart, but their outer bands are already interacting as you can see in the photos above. And the effect will likely become stronger.
Philippe (left) is moving at 2 mph and Rina at 10 mph. So they will come even closer.
Cones of Uncertainty
The two maps below show projected tracks for the next few days. But remember, the center of the storm has an equal chance of passing through any point within the cone of uncertainty.
Here’s the cone for Philippe.
Here’s the cone for Rina.
Pick a spot on the grid and compare the projected locations over time.
Wikipedia says, “Rotation rates accelerate when tropical cyclones close within 400 mi of each other. Systems typically merge when they are within 190 mi of one another.”
So we have at least a few days to watch these two and a developing Fujiwhara effect if any.
At an 8 mph closing rate, two storms 631 miles apart would take about 2.5 days to get within 190 miles of each other.
How to See if They Merge
Mergers are fairly rare, according to Wikipedia. But these two could tango. So watch to see if they merge over the next few days. Exact predictions are difficult, because of the uncertainty associated with storm tracks.
However, you can check their progress and proximity visually by looking at the satellite images on NOAA’s National Hurricane Center website. Select from several different options within the “Atlantic-Wide View”: Geo-Color, Visible, Short Wave IR, Infrared, and Water Vapor.
Regardless of what happens, NOAA does not predict that these storms will come anywhere close to Texas. So sleep easy.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/28/23
2221 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230928-Twin-Spin.jpg?fit=1100%2C660&ssl=16601100adminadmin2023-09-28 15:52:012023-09-28 15:53:36Will We See Fujiwhara Effect? Twin Spin in Atlantic
When I say “dig a little deeper” to improve flood mitigation, I’m speaking metaphorically, of course.
On September 17, 2023, Jim Blackburn, a lawyer and professor of environmental law in the Rice University engineering department, published an article in the Houston Chronicle. He titled it, “What Houston’s next mayor needs to do about flooding.”
Both Prof. Blackburn and the Chronicle labeled the article “opinion.” That’s fortunate because in some areas, Blackburn made assertions contradicted by facts. In most other areas, he made high-level recommendations without any specifics.
For example, among other things, Prof. Blackburn argues that Houston’s next mayor should:
Build more mitigation projects for Halls and Greens Bayou Watersheds, which he says haven’t received their fair share.
Address climate change with better planning and engineering tools.
Speed up buyouts.
Let’s examine each and why we all need to dig a little deeper if we want to improve flood mitigation.
Halls and Greens Bayou Watersheds
Both Halls and Greens watersheds HAVE received mitigation projects. Many. And more than their fair share. You can see it in spending data and on the ground. However, Harris County Flood Control District has delivered the projects, not the City of Houston.
HCFCD and its partners have spent more than $390 million on Greens and Halls mitigation improvements since 2000. Greens has received more dollars than any other watershed except Brays (where Rice is). And tiny Halls ranks third in dollars per capita among all watersheds.
Professor Blackburn and his graduate students need to dig a little deeper. They should get out more and smell the construction dust. For example, here is a new Halls Bayou detention basin, one of many built in the watershed during the last 10 years.
New Halls Bayou Detention Basin west of Keith Weiss Park, photographed in March 2022.
Then, there’s this new detention basin along Greens Bayou at Cutten Road under construction in 2021. Again, it’s one of at least a half dozen built in the last ten years along Greens.
One portion of the massive Cutten Road stormwater detention basin on Greens Bayou
I compile flood-mitigation funding by watershed through quarterly FOIA requests. I also cross-check the data by photographing construction from the air.
Of the top five watersheds above, four have a majority of low-to-moderate income residents; only Cypress Creek does not. Those five watersheds have received 60% of all funding going back to 2000, compared to 40% for the other 18 watersheds put together.
From high to low in the graph above, spending varies by 130X. Such data shows that many watersheds have been historically deprived – in the name of “equity.” But those deprived tend to be on the more affluent end of the spectrum.
Address Climate Change with Better Planning and Engineering Tools
Next, Professor Blackburn wants to address climate change with better planning and engineering tools. It’s hard to see what more the next Mayor of Houston could do in this regard.
Professor Blackburn asserts that we need to “understand our changed rainfall patterns and integrate that knowledge into every aspect of the City’s thinking.”
Since Harvey, the City has already adopted NOAA’s new Atlas-14 rainfall-probability statistics and incorporated them into its regulations. So, design professionals are already working on new, updated assumptions.
Professor Blackburn, a reputed expert, doesn’t define how climate is changing, but asserts that professionals should consider the changing patterns. He believes they should engineer “streets, sewage treatment plants, underground and above-ground stormwater systems, floodplains and general drainage flow patterns” with the unspecified climate patterns in mind.
It’s hard to argue against progress. But the real issue, in my opinion, is that leaders in many surrounding cities and counties have not yet uniformly adopted NOAA’s Atlas 14 standards. Perhaps the next Mayor could jawbone them into sending less water downstream.
The Mayor could also discourage large increases in impervious cover under proposed programs such as the Houston Planning Commission’s so-called Livable Places. Livable Places would disproportionately increase flood risk for low-income and minority neighborhoods because of the program’s linkage to mass transit.
Speed Up Buyouts
Blackburn believes that buyouts should happen faster after a flood – before people rebuild. Most people agree that the process needs streamlining. But how?
Experts have proposed multiple improvements. However, none has gained traction across the board with local, State, and Federal lawmakers.
For instance, after Harvey, Harris County Flood Control executives pitched plans in Austin for a QBF (Quick Buyout Force). Instead of waiting for:
The President to declare a disaster
Congress to vote funds
FEMA to design rules for disaster relief
The State to adopt them
Local agencies to identify eligible recipients and solicit applications
Local, State and Federal authorities to review and approve the applications, and
Money to flow through the pipeline…
…HCFCD argued for pre-approval of guidelines and to have a pot of funds available before disaster strikes, kind of like a savings account for a rainy day. Money could then be used immediately. Local agencies would later reimburse the Federal government for money they didn’t use.
Houston’s next Mayor could throw his/her influence behind such a plan or a suitable alternative.
Unfortunately, Prof. Blackburn doesn’t recommend a plan. Nor does he dissect each issue and give us the benefit of his wisdom. With all the brainpower and resources at his disposal, he could make a genuine contribution to the community. Perhaps his future opinion pieces will elucidate how we should improve beyond simply preparing for the future.
Collectively, we all need to dig a little deeper to improve flood mitigation. We need to start with facts and get down to specifics.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/27/2023
2220 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/image-1.png?fit=936%2C618&ssl=1618936adminadmin2023-09-27 06:45:282023-09-27 18:25:07For Better Flood Mitigation, Let’s Dig a Little Deeper
Where Flood-Mitigation Dollars Have Really Gone
An analysis of Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) and partner spending since 2000 reveals striking contrasts between watersheds in terms of where flood-mitigation dollars have gone.
Watersheds vary as much as 130 to 1 since 2000 and almost as much since Harvey. Most watersheds remained relatively constant in the rankings during the different time periods. However, a few have shifted up or down a few positions as land was acquired for projects or construction kicked off.
Data below includes spending by HCFCD and its partners from 1/1/2000 to 6/30/2023.
Main Takeaways from the Data
The big stories:
San Jacinto Gets Above Average Damage, Below Average Funding
The San Jacinto ranks below the averages (before 2000 and since Harvey) for flood-mitigation dollars – despite ranking 8th in damaged structures among all 23 watersheds. Damage totals include five major storms (Allison, Memorial Day, Tax Day, Harvey and Imelda).
Watersheds Ranked by Funding Since 2000
Here’s how the funding looks in graphs and tables. All data was obtained from HCFCD via FOIA requests.
Here’s the actual data if you want to see exactly how much your watershed received.
Watersheds Ranked by Funding Since Harvey
Now let’s look at the how spending shifted after Harvey. Not much, at least relatively speaking.
Here are the actual totals for each watershed shown in the graph above.
Feet above Flood Stage
Now let’s look at the severity of flooding. The chart below measures feet above flood stage at different Harris County gages.
Flood Stage is the level at which a river, stream or channel comes out of its banks.
I compiled this chart from data in the Harris County Flood Warning System website.
That 20+ feet above flood stage at the San Jacinto West Fork and US59 was the highest I found in the county.
Damage to Infrastructure
That 20+ feet destroyed Kingwood College, Kingwood High School, all of the businesses in Kingwood Town Center and Kings Harbor, the southbound lanes of US59, the Union Pacific Railroad Bridge, Memorial Hermann’s new Convenient Care Center, sewage treatment plants, and a senior housing complex.
Six years after Harvey, many of the commercial areas in Kingwood still haven’t fully recovered. Anchor stores remain empty in three of five shopping centers on Kingwood Drive between Town Center and US59.
Achieving True Equity
While I’m sympathetic to the plight of poorer neighborhoods, I cringe at the self-serving definition of equity used by a Democratic-dominated Commissioners Court to deny funding to the hardest hit area in the county.
We need a system that’s fair to all, not just some. Anything less will perpetuate racial distrust. This is a public safety issue and public safety should not be politicized.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/30/23
2223 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Will We See Fujiwhara Effect? Twin Spin in Atlantic
Weather buffs could soon be treated to a rare event: the Fujiwhara Effect. That’s when one tropical storm collides with another. Topical Storm Philippe is being overtaken by the newly formed Tropical Storm Rina. See the satellite image below taken around 12:30 PM CDT.
Will They Merge?
I asked Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner what happens in such a case. His response:
Wikipedia offers a great description of this rare event and some of the parameters necessary for it to occur.
“The effect occurs,” says Wikipedia, when two nearby cyclonic vortices move around each other and close the distance between the circulations of their corresponding low-pressure areas. The effect is named after Sakuhei Fujiwhara, the Japanese meteorologist who initially described the effect. Binary interaction of smaller circulations can cause the development of a larger cyclone, or cause two cyclones to merge into one. … Tropical cyclones typically interact within 870 mi. of each other.”
These storms are already within that radius. At this hour (3:30 PM CDT on 9/28/23), the centers of Philippe and Rina are 631 miles apart, but their outer bands are already interacting as you can see in the photos above. And the effect will likely become stronger.
Philippe (left) is moving at 2 mph and Rina at 10 mph. So they will come even closer.
Cones of Uncertainty
The two maps below show projected tracks for the next few days. But remember, the center of the storm has an equal chance of passing through any point within the cone of uncertainty.
Here’s the cone for Philippe.
Here’s the cone for Rina.
Pick a spot on the grid and compare the projected locations over time.
Wikipedia says, “Rotation rates accelerate when tropical cyclones close within 400 mi of each other. Systems typically merge when they are within 190 mi of one another.”
So we have at least a few days to watch these two and a developing Fujiwhara effect if any.
At an 8 mph closing rate, two storms 631 miles apart would take about 2.5 days to get within 190 miles of each other.
How to See if They Merge
Mergers are fairly rare, according to Wikipedia. But these two could tango. So watch to see if they merge over the next few days. Exact predictions are difficult, because of the uncertainty associated with storm tracks.
However, you can check their progress and proximity visually by looking at the satellite images on NOAA’s National Hurricane Center website. Select from several different options within the “Atlantic-Wide View”: Geo-Color, Visible, Short Wave IR, Infrared, and Water Vapor.
Regardless of what happens, NOAA does not predict that these storms will come anywhere close to Texas. So sleep easy.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/28/23
2221 Days since Hurricane Harvey
For Better Flood Mitigation, Let’s Dig a Little Deeper
When I say “dig a little deeper” to improve flood mitigation, I’m speaking metaphorically, of course.
On September 17, 2023, Jim Blackburn, a lawyer and professor of environmental law in the Rice University engineering department, published an article in the Houston Chronicle. He titled it, “What Houston’s next mayor needs to do about flooding.”
Both Prof. Blackburn and the Chronicle labeled the article “opinion.” That’s fortunate because in some areas, Blackburn made assertions contradicted by facts. In most other areas, he made high-level recommendations without any specifics.
For example, among other things, Prof. Blackburn argues that Houston’s next mayor should:
Let’s examine each and why we all need to dig a little deeper if we want to improve flood mitigation.
Halls and Greens Bayou Watersheds
Both Halls and Greens watersheds HAVE received mitigation projects. Many. And more than their fair share. You can see it in spending data and on the ground. However, Harris County Flood Control District has delivered the projects, not the City of Houston.
HCFCD and its partners have spent more than $390 million on Greens and Halls mitigation improvements since 2000. Greens has received more dollars than any other watershed except Brays (where Rice is). And tiny Halls ranks third in dollars per capita among all watersheds.
Professor Blackburn and his graduate students need to dig a little deeper. They should get out more and smell the construction dust. For example, here is a new Halls Bayou detention basin, one of many built in the watershed during the last 10 years.
Then, there’s this new detention basin along Greens Bayou at Cutten Road under construction in 2021. Again, it’s one of at least a half dozen built in the last ten years along Greens.
I compile flood-mitigation funding by watershed through quarterly FOIA requests. I also cross-check the data by photographing construction from the air.
Photos such as those above support the spending reported below. However, neither the photos nor the spending data fit the current, popular political narrative about “historical disinvestment” in low-income minority neighborhoods.
Of the top five watersheds above, four have a majority of low-to-moderate income residents; only Cypress Creek does not. Those five watersheds have received 60% of all funding going back to 2000, compared to 40% for the other 18 watersheds put together.
From high to low in the graph above, spending varies by 130X. Such data shows that many watersheds have been historically deprived – in the name of “equity.” But those deprived tend to be on the more affluent end of the spectrum.
Address Climate Change with Better Planning and Engineering Tools
Next, Professor Blackburn wants to address climate change with better planning and engineering tools. It’s hard to see what more the next Mayor of Houston could do in this regard.
Professor Blackburn asserts that we need to “understand our changed rainfall patterns and integrate that knowledge into every aspect of the City’s thinking.”
Since Harvey, the City has already adopted NOAA’s new Atlas-14 rainfall-probability statistics and incorporated them into its regulations. So, design professionals are already working on new, updated assumptions.
Plus, NOAA is currently working on Atlas 15 which predicts future impacts of climate change. But NOAA won’t release those stats until 2027 at the earliest – after the next mayoral election.
Professor Blackburn, a reputed expert, doesn’t define how climate is changing, but asserts that professionals should consider the changing patterns. He believes they should engineer “streets, sewage treatment plants, underground and above-ground stormwater systems, floodplains and general drainage flow patterns” with the unspecified climate patterns in mind.
It’s hard to argue against progress. But the real issue, in my opinion, is that leaders in many surrounding cities and counties have not yet uniformly adopted NOAA’s Atlas 14 standards. Perhaps the next Mayor could jawbone them into sending less water downstream.
The Mayor could also discourage large increases in impervious cover under proposed programs such as the Houston Planning Commission’s so-called Livable Places. Livable Places would disproportionately increase flood risk for low-income and minority neighborhoods because of the program’s linkage to mass transit.
Speed Up Buyouts
Blackburn believes that buyouts should happen faster after a flood – before people rebuild. Most people agree that the process needs streamlining. But how?
Experts have proposed multiple improvements. However, none has gained traction across the board with local, State, and Federal lawmakers.
For instance, after Harvey, Harris County Flood Control executives pitched plans in Austin for a QBF (Quick Buyout Force). Instead of waiting for:
…HCFCD argued for pre-approval of guidelines and to have a pot of funds available before disaster strikes, kind of like a savings account for a rainy day. Money could then be used immediately. Local agencies would later reimburse the Federal government for money they didn’t use.
Houston’s next Mayor could throw his/her influence behind such a plan or a suitable alternative.
Unfortunately, Prof. Blackburn doesn’t recommend a plan. Nor does he dissect each issue and give us the benefit of his wisdom. With all the brainpower and resources at his disposal, he could make a genuine contribution to the community. Perhaps his future opinion pieces will elucidate how we should improve beyond simply preparing for the future.
Collectively, we all need to dig a little deeper to improve flood mitigation. We need to start with facts and get down to specifics.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/27/2023
2220 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.