(11AM 8/20/23 and updated at 7PM) Here’s something you don’t often see – a tropical disturbance that could increase fire danger more than flood risk.
The 8am 7-day tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows that Tropical Storm Emily has formed in the Atlantic. Separately, a disturbance lingering over the Bahamas has finally crossed over Florida and moved into the Gulf. However, the latter storm will likely miss Houston as it veers south into the lower Texas Coast and northern Mexico. That means…
8AM update on Aug 20, 2023 from NHC
Twelve hours later, another tropical storm formed in the Atlantic – Franklin. And NHC increased the chances for formation for the two orange disturbances to 70%.
8PM update on Aug 20, 2023 from NHC
High winds from the storm combined with the lack of rain and dry vegetation could actually increase fire danger north of I-10.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Rainfall Chances for North Houston Area Slight
Unfortunately, the still unnamed Gulf disturbance will likely bring little rain to the Houston area. The 72-hour cumulative prediction from the National Weather Service shows about a quarter inch of rain south of I-10 and a tenth of an inch north of it.
As of Sunday morning, the disturbance is centered south of the Florida panhandle.
That big clear area over the southern plains and Texas is the high pressure system that has dominated our weather for the last month. It forms a barrier that will likely block the lower pressure system in the Gulf from moving north toward Houston.
High Winds, but Little Chance of Flooding
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist predicts that tropical moisture will begin to arrive along the Texas coast on Monday with offshore scattered activity increasing through the day.”
Lindner believes that I-10 will be a good dividing line between higher coastal rain chances and lower inland chances late Monday into Tuesday.
Said Lindner, “There will likely be a strong south to north rainfall gradient over the region … with rain chances in the 50-60% range near the coast, 30-40% along I-10, and generally less than 30% north of I-10.
Lindner expects wind gusts up to 30 knots on Monday and Tuesday as the storm passes. He also predicts that seas will build 5-9 feet for most offshore waters. He also predicts that tides will be elevated late Monday into Tuesday, but he doesn’t expect them to reach critical thresholds or cause any issues along the coast or in the inland bays.
Inland winds will increase Monday into the 15-20 mph range with higher gusts. Ironically, the biggest threat from this storm may be fire.
Lindner predicts that the high winds inland along with low humidity and critically dry vegetation will support an enhanced fire danger for those areas along and north of I-10. “Fires could quickly spread in these conditions,” warns Lindner.
Red Flag Warnings
At 2:39 PM, Lindner announced that red flag warnings had been issued for most counties in SE Texas including Harris, Montgomery and Liberty.
Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions will exist on Monday as the tropical system approaches. It will increase the pressure gradient across much of SE TX. Humidity values will decrease through Monday and reach below 30% during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Fuels loads are critically dry over the region, said Lindner. “Small fire will grow rapidly. Fires continue to exhibit aggressive behavior in pine areas and winds on Monday.Ccanopy crown runs will make containment lines challenging.
Fire conditions have deteriorated to those similar to August and September 2011 when several large devastating fires occurred over portions of SE and central Texas.
Extreme Drought Conditions Persist
In fact, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows that the Lake Houston Area is in Extreme Drought.
What have temperatures and rainfall been compared to the 30-year average?
Temperatures so far this year have been consistently above the average for the last thirty years (green line compared to yellow line). Rainfall (blue and red bars) has been both above and below average. April and May were both above average. But June, July and August have been far below.
According to the Harris County Flood Warning System, the West Fork San Jacinto gage at US59 last received rain on July 23rd – four one-hundredths of an inch!
Obviously, this is not the time for outdoor burning! In fact, the Texas A&M Forest Service shows that most Texas counties currently have burn bans.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/2023
2182 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/image001-2.png?fit=902%2C598&ssl=1598902adminadmin2023-08-20 11:51:312023-08-20 19:12:10Gulf Disturbance Could Increase Fire Danger
What a difference a day makes! Yesterday, the Atlantic Basin had four areas of concern. Today, it has five. And, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the chances of tropical development have increased for all of them since yesterday. See the seven-day outlook for the Atlantic Basin below and note the time: Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 3:35 Eastern time.
The NHC diagram below shows a veritable parade of potential storms marching from Africa toward the Americas.
Lowdown on the Lows
Starting with the yellow area moving off the coast of Western Africa:
Yellow Area on Right
A tropical wave located near the western coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the next several days. Formation chance through 7 days…still low…20 percent.
Red Area with X
The red cross-hatched area to the left of the yellow is a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for further development. A short-lived tropical depression will likely form this weekend and move west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is not expected. Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.
TD #6
Tropical Depression #6 formed in the central, tropical Atlantic this afternoon. The system will move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, upper-level winds will become increasingly unfavorable by late this weekend, so NHC does not anticipate any further development.
Orange Area Entering Caribbean
A broad area of low pressure has formed near the Windward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could form by early next week when the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.
Orange Area Entering Gulf
An area of disturbed weather located near the Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week where a broad area of low pressure will form. Some slow development is possible thereafter. A tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week. The storm will likely make landfall in South Texas and bring little rainfall to the Houston area north of I-10. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.
Satellite Image Shows Current Conditions in Gulf and Eastern Pacific
The last area represents the most imminent threat to Texas. Here’s what it looks like in a satellite image. Not very impressive at the moment, especially compared to Hurricane Hilary in the Pacific (on the left).
Conditions can change rapidly so prepare and stay aware.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/19/23 based on information from the NHC
2181 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/two_atl_7d0-1.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2023-08-19 17:07:232023-08-19 17:59:04Tropics Show More Activity, Higher Probabilities since Yesterday
Update as of 6:30 PM: Outbound lanes have opened. One inbound lane open. Utility crews onsite.
Northpark Drive is closed in the worst possible place at the worst possible time – Friday night during rush hour in a construction zone. However, the accident that caused the closure is not related to construction.
A little before 3 PM, I got a tip about an accident at Russell-Palmer Road from Ralph De Leon, the project manager for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority’s Northpark Drive expansion project. He said that a truck had clipped a power pole and wires were down.
By the time I got there with my drone, police and fire trucks had Northpark closed off in both directions between Woodridge Drive and Russell-Palmer. However, I got my drone up from the parking lot of St. Martha’s Catholic Church to get the shots below. That was the easy part.
Getting home (about 2 miles away) took almost 45 minutes.
Bob Rehak
If you have a family member coming into Kingwood during the Friday evening rush hour, warn them to pack their patience. Utility lines are down across the road in BOTH directions.
According to De Leon, Northpark will be closed until the utility company can assess and repair the problem. That could take hours. It will be difficult just to get to the area. Avoid it at all costs.
Photos Taken at 3PM
Looking east along Northpark over Russell-Palmer.Note emergency vehicles blocking inbound traffic.One utility pole has snapped and another one across Northpark appears to be leaning. However, that could be a shadow.
It’s not clear whether the utility lines carry communications or electricity. The downed line in the photo below is next to a power pole; you can tell by the transformer. So it may be a communications line.
The utility line appears to be caught on an eighteen wheeler blocking the inbound lanes.The downed lines stretch from the truck to a snapped pole, across the ditch and then across the outbound lanes.
The inbound traffic was being funneled south on Russell-Palmer toward Kingwood Drive. See below.
The utility pole is snapped in half.Here you can see the lines tangled on the truck.It’s unclear whether the truck struck the pole.West of Russell-Palmer Traffic is backed up to 59 and maybe beyond.
People trying to enter Kingwood through back streets will find the slogging tough. Everyone who normally uses Northpark is trying to squeeze through stop signs not designed to handle this volume of traffic.
Stay away. If you simply can’t, pack your patience.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4:30pm on 8/18/23
2180 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230818-DJI_0355.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-18 16:45:182023-08-18 18:59:58Pack Your Patience: Accident Closes Northpark in Both Directions
Gulf Disturbance Could Increase Fire Danger
(11AM 8/20/23 and updated at 7PM) Here’s something you don’t often see – a tropical disturbance that could increase fire danger more than flood risk.
The 8am 7-day tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows that Tropical Storm Emily has formed in the Atlantic. Separately, a disturbance lingering over the Bahamas has finally crossed over Florida and moved into the Gulf. However, the latter storm will likely miss Houston as it veers south into the lower Texas Coast and northern Mexico. That means…
Twelve hours later, another tropical storm formed in the Atlantic – Franklin. And NHC increased the chances for formation for the two orange disturbances to 70%.
Rainfall Chances for North Houston Area Slight
Unfortunately, the still unnamed Gulf disturbance will likely bring little rain to the Houston area. The 72-hour cumulative prediction from the National Weather Service shows about a quarter inch of rain south of I-10 and a tenth of an inch north of it.
As of Sunday morning, the disturbance is centered south of the Florida panhandle.
That big clear area over the southern plains and Texas is the high pressure system that has dominated our weather for the last month. It forms a barrier that will likely block the lower pressure system in the Gulf from moving north toward Houston.
High Winds, but Little Chance of Flooding
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist predicts that tropical moisture will begin to arrive along the Texas coast on Monday with offshore scattered activity increasing through the day.”
Lindner believes that I-10 will be a good dividing line between higher coastal rain chances and lower inland chances late Monday into Tuesday.
Said Lindner, “There will likely be a strong south to north rainfall gradient over the region … with rain chances in the 50-60% range near the coast, 30-40% along I-10, and generally less than 30% north of I-10.
Lindner expects wind gusts up to 30 knots on Monday and Tuesday as the storm passes. He also predicts that seas will build 5-9 feet for most offshore waters. He also predicts that tides will be elevated late Monday into Tuesday, but he doesn’t expect them to reach critical thresholds or cause any issues along the coast or in the inland bays.
Inland winds will increase Monday into the 15-20 mph range with higher gusts. Ironically, the biggest threat from this storm may be fire.
Lindner predicts that the high winds inland along with low humidity and critically dry vegetation will support an enhanced fire danger for those areas along and north of I-10. “Fires could quickly spread in these conditions,” warns Lindner.
Red Flag Warnings
At 2:39 PM, Lindner announced that red flag warnings had been issued for most counties in SE Texas including Harris, Montgomery and Liberty.
Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions will exist on Monday as the tropical system approaches. It will increase the pressure gradient across much of SE TX. Humidity values will decrease through Monday and reach below 30% during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Fuels loads are critically dry over the region, said Lindner. “Small fire will grow rapidly. Fires continue to exhibit aggressive behavior in pine areas and winds on Monday.Ccanopy crown runs will make containment lines challenging.
Fire conditions have deteriorated to those similar to August and September 2011 when several large devastating fires occurred over portions of SE and central Texas.
Extreme Drought Conditions Persist
In fact, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows that the Lake Houston Area is in Extreme Drought.
What have temperatures and rainfall been compared to the 30-year average?
Temperatures so far this year have been consistently above the average for the last thirty years (green line compared to yellow line). Rainfall (blue and red bars) has been both above and below average. April and May were both above average. But June, July and August have been far below.
According to the Harris County Flood Warning System, the West Fork San Jacinto gage at US59 last received rain on July 23rd – four one-hundredths of an inch!
Obviously, this is not the time for outdoor burning! In fact, the Texas A&M Forest Service shows that most Texas counties currently have burn bans.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/2023
2182 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tropics Show More Activity, Higher Probabilities since Yesterday
What a difference a day makes! Yesterday, the Atlantic Basin had four areas of concern. Today, it has five. And, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the chances of tropical development have increased for all of them since yesterday. See the seven-day outlook for the Atlantic Basin below and note the time: Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 3:35 Eastern time.
The NHC diagram below shows a veritable parade of potential storms marching from Africa toward the Americas.
Lowdown on the Lows
Starting with the yellow area moving off the coast of Western Africa:
Yellow Area on Right
A tropical wave located near the western coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the next several days. Formation chance through 7 days…still low…20 percent.
Red Area with X
The red cross-hatched area to the left of the yellow is a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for further development. A short-lived tropical depression will likely form this weekend and move west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is not expected. Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.
TD #6
Tropical Depression #6 formed in the central, tropical Atlantic this afternoon. The system will move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, upper-level winds will become increasingly unfavorable by late this weekend, so NHC does not anticipate any further development.
Orange Area Entering Caribbean
A broad area of low pressure has formed near the Windward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could form by early next week when the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.
Orange Area Entering Gulf
An area of disturbed weather located near the Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week where a broad area of low pressure will form. Some slow development is possible thereafter. A tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week. The storm will likely make landfall in South Texas and bring little rainfall to the Houston area north of I-10. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.
Satellite Image Shows Current Conditions in Gulf and Eastern Pacific
The last area represents the most imminent threat to Texas. Here’s what it looks like in a satellite image. Not very impressive at the moment, especially compared to Hurricane Hilary in the Pacific (on the left).
Conditions can change rapidly so prepare and stay aware.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/19/23 based on information from the NHC
2181 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Pack Your Patience: Accident Closes Northpark in Both Directions
Update as of 6:30 PM: Outbound lanes have opened. One inbound lane open. Utility crews onsite.
Northpark Drive is closed in the worst possible place at the worst possible time – Friday night during rush hour in a construction zone. However, the accident that caused the closure is not related to construction.
A little before 3 PM, I got a tip about an accident at Russell-Palmer Road from Ralph De Leon, the project manager for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority’s Northpark Drive expansion project. He said that a truck had clipped a power pole and wires were down.
By the time I got there with my drone, police and fire trucks had Northpark closed off in both directions between Woodridge Drive and Russell-Palmer. However, I got my drone up from the parking lot of St. Martha’s Catholic Church to get the shots below. That was the easy part.
If you have a family member coming into Kingwood during the Friday evening rush hour, warn them to pack their patience. Utility lines are down across the road in BOTH directions.
According to De Leon, Northpark will be closed until the utility company can assess and repair the problem. That could take hours. It will be difficult just to get to the area. Avoid it at all costs.
Photos Taken at 3PM
It’s not clear whether the utility lines carry communications or electricity. The downed line in the photo below is next to a power pole; you can tell by the transformer. So it may be a communications line.
The inbound traffic was being funneled south on Russell-Palmer toward Kingwood Drive. See below.
People trying to enter Kingwood through back streets will find the slogging tough. Everyone who normally uses Northpark is trying to squeeze through stop signs not designed to handle this volume of traffic.
Stay away. If you simply can’t, pack your patience.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4:30pm on 8/18/23
2180 Days after Hurricane Harvey