Two weeks short of Harvey’s sixth anniversary, FM1010, the main north/south artery between Huffman and Cleveland is still blown out due to excessive, uncontrolled runoff from Colony Ridge. Colony Ridge is the world’s largest trailer park and it’s just upstream near the East Fork San Jacinto in Liberty County. The productivity loss of local residents could easily have added up to half of a billion dollars by now.
Photos taken 8/12/23
I took all the photos below from a helicopter on Saturday, 8/12/23.
Blown out portion of FM1010, aka the Huffman-Cleveland Roadand Plum Grove RoadThe washout forces tens of thousands of nearby residents to take detour.
During rush hours, the backups on FM2090 from traffic trying to get to US59 can stretch miles because of failure to repair this bridge.
The washed out bridge lies at the end of this 2-mile Colony Ridge water cannon.This Colony Ridge drainage ditch, like most others, does not have backslope interceptor swales to help control erosionor runoff.
Neither does this part of Colony Ridge have detention basins to help reduce the amount of runoff flowing into the East Fork San Jacinto.
Estimated Cost of Delays
I wonder if it’s even possible to accurately calculate the number of “people hours” lost to the senseless washout of the FM1010 bridge. But I will try.
For the sake of argument:
Assume 10,000 commuters are inconvenienced for an hour a day (half hour each way).
Multiply that times 365 days and then again by 6 years. You come close to 22 million hours.
Now multiply that times $25/hour.
Assuming these numbers are even in the ballpark, the washout could have cost local residents more than half of a billion dollars. Geez! How much can a twin culvert bridge and some blacktop cost?!
Expansion Accelerates Despite Access Issue
But that hasn’t stopped the Colony Ridge developer from expanding.
Colony Ridge now comprises more than 30 square miles. It has virtually doubled in size in the last two years.Landsat photo from 7/18/23courtesy of Google Earth.
The development started around 2010. It now occupies 50% more land than Kingwood, which is now more than 50 years old.
The developer must be banking on a rapid increase in demand. He reportedly advertises in Mexico and Central America. The pitch: “Own your piece of America.”
Here’s what that looks like:
Note how the back yard is eroding into the drainage ditch.Photo courtesy of Chris Russo.
Long-Time Plum Grove Resident Worries about Evacuation During Storms
The long ditch above drains into Rocky Branch. According to a long-time Plum Grove resident, the stream was completely invisible from FM1010 “back in 2008 and 2011 even.” Then, he says, “Colony Ridge excavators and dozers showed up.” They widened and deepened the stream, but on the Colony Ridge side of the culverts only!
According to the resident, FEMA engineers have told Plum Grove that an actual bridge is now required to convey all the water and survive any length of time.
The resident vividly recalls Hurricane Rita approaching the Texas coastline in 2005 – before Colony Ridge. He said, “There was complete gridlock thru the City of Plum Grove as people from the Crosby and Beaumont areas were trying to evacuate inland. Plum Grove Road was bumper to bumper for 3 full days. Residents could not leave or get back home due to the gridlock thru our little city. How will THAT play out when the next Cat IV or V storm approaches us now that all the dense forests have been cleared?”
Good question!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/13/23
2175 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230812-RJR_2135.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-13 19:33:252023-08-14 10:35:55Six Years After Harvey, Bridge Still Blown Out at Colony Ridge
I flew over Lake Houston this morning in a helicopter. I expected to see the barren lake bed in places like you could during the 2011 drought. However, much to my surprise, the lake was virtually full.
Coastal Water Authority Shows Lake Down Only 6 Inches
The Coastal Water Authority, which manages the lake for the City of Houston, shows Lake Houston is only down a half foot.
Water was lapping at the edge of the the spillway.
Lake Houston Dam spillway. Photo take 8/12/23 at approximately 10am.
SJRA Shows Lake Conroe Down About 15 Inches
Lake Conroe is down about 15 inches from its normal conservation pool (the target level). And it hasn’t released any water downstream toward Lake Houston in months. The SJRA’s dashboard shows
Luce Bayou InterBasin Transfer Canal Bringing the Water
So what’s keeping Lake Houston full? What is offsetting drought and evaporation?
A quick check of the gages on the Harris County flood warning system shows areas far upstream have gotten small amounts of rain. But the most water we saw moving all day was coming from the Trinity River via the Luce Bayou InterBasin transfer project.
Luce Bayou Inter-Basin transfer canal bringing water to Lake Houston from the Trinity River on 8/12/23 at 9 am.
Lake Conroe got enough rain to offset some evaporation but not enough to supply Montgomery and Harris Counties.
It’s nice to have backups for Lake Houston in a drought, especially widely scattered backups that can capture rain moving through different parts of the region.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/12/23
2174 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230812-RJR_1744.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-12 18:56:222023-08-12 18:57:40Why Lake Houston Is So Full in a Drought
Scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — have increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity.
Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.
Chances of Above Normal Season Increase from 30% to 60%
NOAA forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, down from the 40% chances outlined in May’s outlook. This new update gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season.
Prediction for Named Storms Increase from 12-17 to 14-21
In May 2023, NOAA predicted 12-17 named storms. NOAA’s update calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater). Of those, 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). And of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. These updated ranges include storms that have already formed this season.
The updated 2023 Atlantic hurricane season probability and number of named storms. (Image credit: NOAA)
The Atlantic basin experienced an active start to the hurricane season with five storms that have reached at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane already. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Climate Factors Influencing Predictions
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Sea surface temperature departures from normal for August 10, 2023.Source: NOAA
Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so NOAA urges everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.
Activity should ramp up quickly in August and September, if this season follows the pattern for the last 100 years.
El Nino conditions are currently being observed and there is a greater than 95% chance that El Nino will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, according to the latest ENSO discussion from the Climate Prediction Center.
El Nino usually results in atmospheric conditions that help to lessen tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season. So far, those limiting conditions have been slow to develop.
Climate scientists forecast that the El-Nino associated impacts that limit tropical cyclone activity may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
A below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast.
Five Storms Already
The Atlantic basin experienced a tropical storm in January which was unnamed. Since the start of the season, we have already experienced four other storms.
The 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization. (Image credit: NOAA)
More About Hurricane Season Outlooks
NOAA’s hurricane outlooks are forecasts of overall season activity, not landfalls. A storm’s landfall is usually the result of mesoscale weather patterns and are typically predictable within roughly one week of a storm approaching a landmass.
In June, NOAA deployed a new model to help produce hurricane forecasts. The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System was put into operations on June 27 and will run alongside existing models for the 2023 season before replacing them as NOAA’s premier hurricane forecasting model.
NOAA urges everyone in vulnerable areas to have a well-thought-out hurricane plan and stay informed through official channels as this season progresses.
I bookmark the National Hurricane Center landing page and check it first thing every morning during the season. NHC expects no tropical activity in the Atlantic during the next seven days.
Reposted by Bob Rehak on 8/11/2023 from the National Hurricane Center
2073 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230811-IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-AUGUST-UPDATE-2023-Pie-081023-NOAA.jpg?fit=1100%2C680&ssl=16801100adminadmin2023-08-11 17:14:092023-09-10 17:20:34NOAA Increases 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Six Years After Harvey, Bridge Still Blown Out at Colony Ridge
Two weeks short of Harvey’s sixth anniversary, FM1010, the main north/south artery between Huffman and Cleveland is still blown out due to excessive, uncontrolled runoff from Colony Ridge. Colony Ridge is the world’s largest trailer park and it’s just upstream near the East Fork San Jacinto in Liberty County. The productivity loss of local residents could easily have added up to half of a billion dollars by now.
Photos taken 8/12/23
I took all the photos below from a helicopter on Saturday, 8/12/23.
During rush hours, the backups on FM2090 from traffic trying to get to US59 can stretch miles because of failure to repair this bridge.
Neither does this part of Colony Ridge have detention basins to help reduce the amount of runoff flowing into the East Fork San Jacinto.
Estimated Cost of Delays
I wonder if it’s even possible to accurately calculate the number of “people hours” lost to the senseless washout of the FM1010 bridge. But I will try.
For the sake of argument:
Assuming these numbers are even in the ballpark, the washout could have cost local residents more than half of a billion dollars. Geez! How much can a twin culvert bridge and some blacktop cost?!
Expansion Accelerates Despite Access Issue
But that hasn’t stopped the Colony Ridge developer from expanding.
The development started around 2010. It now occupies 50% more land than Kingwood, which is now more than 50 years old.
The developer must be banking on a rapid increase in demand. He reportedly advertises in Mexico and Central America. The pitch: “Own your piece of America.”
Here’s what that looks like:
Long-Time Plum Grove Resident Worries about Evacuation During Storms
The long ditch above drains into Rocky Branch. According to a long-time Plum Grove resident, the stream was completely invisible from FM1010 “back in 2008 and 2011 even.” Then, he says, “Colony Ridge excavators and dozers showed up.” They widened and deepened the stream, but on the Colony Ridge side of the culverts only!
According to the resident, FEMA engineers have told Plum Grove that an actual bridge is now required to convey all the water and survive any length of time.
The resident vividly recalls Hurricane Rita approaching the Texas coastline in 2005 – before Colony Ridge. He said, “There was complete gridlock thru the City of Plum Grove as people from the Crosby and Beaumont areas were trying to evacuate inland. Plum Grove Road was bumper to bumper for 3 full days. Residents could not leave or get back home due to the gridlock thru our little city. How will THAT play out when the next Cat IV or V storm approaches us now that all the dense forests have been cleared?”
Good question!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/13/23
2175 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Why Lake Houston Is So Full in a Drought
I flew over Lake Houston this morning in a helicopter. I expected to see the barren lake bed in places like you could during the 2011 drought. However, much to my surprise, the lake was virtually full.
Coastal Water Authority Shows Lake Down Only 6 Inches
The Coastal Water Authority, which manages the lake for the City of Houston, shows Lake Houston is only down a half foot.
Water was lapping at the edge of the the spillway.
SJRA Shows Lake Conroe Down About 15 Inches
Lake Conroe is down about 15 inches from its normal conservation pool (the target level). And it hasn’t released any water downstream toward Lake Houston in months. The SJRA’s dashboard shows
Luce Bayou InterBasin Transfer Canal Bringing the Water
So what’s keeping Lake Houston full? What is offsetting drought and evaporation?
A quick check of the gages on the Harris County flood warning system shows areas far upstream have gotten small amounts of rain. But the most water we saw moving all day was coming from the Trinity River via the Luce Bayou InterBasin transfer project.
Gages upstream from Lake Livingston, which captures water coming down the Trinity River from Dallas/Fort Worth, recorded approximately 11 inches of rain in June, July and August (to date).
Lake Conroe got enough rain to offset some evaporation but not enough to supply Montgomery and Harris Counties.
It’s nice to have backups for Lake Houston in a drought, especially widely scattered backups that can capture rain moving through different parts of the region.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/12/23
2174 Days since Hurricane Harvey
NOAA Increases 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Reprinted from the National Hurricane Center website with some additions.
Scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — have increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity.
Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.
Chances of Above Normal Season Increase from 30% to 60%
NOAA forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, down from the 40% chances outlined in May’s outlook. This new update gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season.
Prediction for Named Storms Increase from 12-17 to 14-21
In May 2023, NOAA predicted 12-17 named storms. NOAA’s update calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater). Of those, 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). And of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. These updated ranges include storms that have already formed this season.
The Atlantic basin experienced an active start to the hurricane season with five storms that have reached at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane already. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Climate Factors Influencing Predictions
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so NOAA urges everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.
Activity should ramp up quickly in August and September, if this season follows the pattern for the last 100 years.
El Nino conditions are currently being observed and there is a greater than 95% chance that El Nino will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, according to the latest ENSO discussion from the Climate Prediction Center.
El Nino usually results in atmospheric conditions that help to lessen tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season. So far, those limiting conditions have been slow to develop.
A below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast.
Five Storms Already
The Atlantic basin experienced a tropical storm in January which was unnamed. Since the start of the season, we have already experienced four other storms.
More About Hurricane Season Outlooks
NOAA’s hurricane outlooks are forecasts of overall season activity, not landfalls. A storm’s landfall is usually the result of mesoscale weather patterns and are typically predictable within roughly one week of a storm approaching a landmass.
In June, NOAA deployed a new model to help produce hurricane forecasts. The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System was put into operations on June 27 and will run alongside existing models for the 2023 season before replacing them as NOAA’s premier hurricane forecasting model.
NOAA urges everyone in vulnerable areas to have a well-thought-out hurricane plan and stay informed through official channels as this season progresses.
I bookmark the National Hurricane Center landing page and check it first thing every morning during the season. NHC expects no tropical activity in the Atlantic during the next seven days.
Reposted by Bob Rehak on 8/11/2023 from the National Hurricane Center
2073 Days since Hurricane Harvey