8/21/23 (9 AM CDT) – Three named storms have formed in the Atlantic in two days and we will likely get fourth (in the Gulf of Mexico) today or tomorrow.
Tropical storms Emily and Gert formed in the Atlantic yesterday (8/20/23). Gert formed overnight. And a fourth disturbance barreling across the Gulf of Mexico toward the lower Texas Coast could reach tropical storm intensity today or tomorrow, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
2023 Summary Compared to 30-Year Average
So far this year, the Atlantic Basin has had:
An unnamed sub-tropical storm in January, that was later determined to have 70 mph max winds
Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy in June
Hurricane Don in July
Emily, Franklin and Gert in August
If the disturbance currently in the Gulf turns into a named storm, it will become Harold – the ninth storm of the year to reach tropical storm intensity.
Normally, by this week in the hurricane season, the Atlantic Basin has five named storms. See the table below from the NHC’s Climatology page.
Progress of the average Atlantic season (1991-2020). Date upon which the following number of events would normally have occurred.
Number
Named systems
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes
1
Jun 20
Aug 11
Sep 1
2
Jul 17
Aug 26
Sep 19
3
Aug 3
Sep 7
Oct 28
4
Aug 15
Sep 16
–
5
Aug 22
Sep 28
–
6
Aug 29
Oct 15
–
7
Sep 3
Nov 15
–
8
Sep 9
–
–
9
Sep 16
–
–
10
Sep 22
–
–
11
Oct 2
–
–
12
Oct 11
–
–
13
Oct 25
–
–
14
Nov 19
–
–
Greatest Threat to Houston is Fire
None of the current disturbances in the Gulf, Caribbean or Atlantic represent a threat to Houston.
The closest storm to Houston is south of Mississippi as of 9AM Tuesday morning. It will miss the upper Texas Coast and likely come ashore between Corpus Christi and Brownsville tomorrow.
NHC says that showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization and banding. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development. And a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before it reaches the coastline on Tuesday. Formation chance is high…80 percent.
The greatest threat to the Houston area is not rain or flooding; north of I-10, we should see only about a tenth of an inch from the storm. But hot, dry conditions combined with a long-term drought have created critical fire weather conditions. A burn ban is in effect. High winds associated with the storm could spread fire quickly. So be careful. Several fires are already burning in other parts of East Texas.
Discussion of Other Disturbances
Unnamed Storm off African Coast
NHC gives the other unnamed storm off the coast of Africa a formation chance of 70% in the next 7 days.
Emily
Emily will also turn north. Its intensity will lessen into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.
Franklin
NHC predicts Franklin will turn north and cross Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti through the middle of the week. It could produce heavy rainfall; life-threatening flash and urban flooding; and mudslides through Wednesday.
Gert
Gert is quickly unraveling. NHC expects to downgrade it into a tropical depression by Monday at 2PM.
A Record?
Is three or four named storms in two or three days a record? According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, it’s not. The record is closer to five or six at one time, he says. Regardless, tropical activity is heating up. The peak of hurricane season is still three weeks away – September 10th. It looks like earlier predictions of an above-average season were accurate.
In the meantime, watch out for that heat! Here’s a summary put together by Lindner of record highs on 8/20/23.
College Station: 112 (tied all time record high from 9-4-2000, broke the all-time August record high of 110 from 8-17-1903, and shattered the daily record high of 107)
BUSH IAH: 108 (broke the daily record high of 107 from 1909). This is only the 5th time since the 1880’s that Houston has reached 108. 1 degree shy of the all-time record high of 109.
Hobby: 107 (broke the daily record high of 101 in 1999).
Galveston: 97 (tied record high from 1995)
Huntsville: 112 (shattered the daily record high of 106 from 1909)
Madisonville: 108 (broke daily record high of 105 from 1948)
Sugar Land: 107 (broke daily record of 101 from 2018)
Conroe: 109 (tied all time record high from 2000 and 1925)
Tomball: 110 (shattered daily record of 101 from 1999) All time record high surpassing 108 in 2000
Wharton: 106 (broke daily record of 100 from 1911)
Brenham: 108 (broke daily record of 105 from 1948)
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/23
2183 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/two_atl_7d0-3.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2023-08-21 08:46:472023-08-21 08:46:48Three Named Storms in Atlantic in Two Days, Could Get Fourth
(11AM 8/20/23 and updated at 7PM) Here’s something you don’t often see – a tropical disturbance that could increase fire danger more than flood risk.
The 8am 7-day tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows that Tropical Storm Emily has formed in the Atlantic. Separately, a disturbance lingering over the Bahamas has finally crossed over Florida and moved into the Gulf. However, the latter storm will likely miss Houston as it veers south into the lower Texas Coast and northern Mexico. That means…
8AM update on Aug 20, 2023 from NHC
Twelve hours later, another tropical storm formed in the Atlantic – Franklin. And NHC increased the chances for formation for the two orange disturbances to 70%.
8PM update on Aug 20, 2023 from NHC
High winds from the storm combined with the lack of rain and dry vegetation could actually increase fire danger north of I-10.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Rainfall Chances for North Houston Area Slight
Unfortunately, the still unnamed Gulf disturbance will likely bring little rain to the Houston area. The 72-hour cumulative prediction from the National Weather Service shows about a quarter inch of rain south of I-10 and a tenth of an inch north of it.
As of Sunday morning, the disturbance is centered south of the Florida panhandle.
That big clear area over the southern plains and Texas is the high pressure system that has dominated our weather for the last month. It forms a barrier that will likely block the lower pressure system in the Gulf from moving north toward Houston.
High Winds, but Little Chance of Flooding
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist predicts that tropical moisture will begin to arrive along the Texas coast on Monday with offshore scattered activity increasing through the day.”
Lindner believes that I-10 will be a good dividing line between higher coastal rain chances and lower inland chances late Monday into Tuesday.
Said Lindner, “There will likely be a strong south to north rainfall gradient over the region … with rain chances in the 50-60% range near the coast, 30-40% along I-10, and generally less than 30% north of I-10.
Lindner expects wind gusts up to 30 knots on Monday and Tuesday as the storm passes. He also predicts that seas will build 5-9 feet for most offshore waters. He also predicts that tides will be elevated late Monday into Tuesday, but he doesn’t expect them to reach critical thresholds or cause any issues along the coast or in the inland bays.
Inland winds will increase Monday into the 15-20 mph range with higher gusts. Ironically, the biggest threat from this storm may be fire.
Lindner predicts that the high winds inland along with low humidity and critically dry vegetation will support an enhanced fire danger for those areas along and north of I-10. “Fires could quickly spread in these conditions,” warns Lindner.
Red Flag Warnings
At 2:39 PM, Lindner announced that red flag warnings had been issued for most counties in SE Texas including Harris, Montgomery and Liberty.
Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions will exist on Monday as the tropical system approaches. It will increase the pressure gradient across much of SE TX. Humidity values will decrease through Monday and reach below 30% during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Fuels loads are critically dry over the region, said Lindner. “Small fire will grow rapidly. Fires continue to exhibit aggressive behavior in pine areas and winds on Monday.Ccanopy crown runs will make containment lines challenging.
Fire conditions have deteriorated to those similar to August and September 2011 when several large devastating fires occurred over portions of SE and central Texas.
Extreme Drought Conditions Persist
In fact, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows that the Lake Houston Area is in Extreme Drought.
What have temperatures and rainfall been compared to the 30-year average?
Temperatures so far this year have been consistently above the average for the last thirty years (green line compared to yellow line). Rainfall (blue and red bars) has been both above and below average. April and May were both above average. But June, July and August have been far below.
According to the Harris County Flood Warning System, the West Fork San Jacinto gage at US59 last received rain on July 23rd – four one-hundredths of an inch!
Obviously, this is not the time for outdoor burning! In fact, the Texas A&M Forest Service shows that most Texas counties currently have burn bans.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/2023
2182 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/image001-2.png?fit=902%2C598&ssl=1598902adminadmin2023-08-20 11:51:312023-08-20 19:12:10Gulf Disturbance Could Increase Fire Danger
What a difference a day makes! Yesterday, the Atlantic Basin had four areas of concern. Today, it has five. And, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the chances of tropical development have increased for all of them since yesterday. See the seven-day outlook for the Atlantic Basin below and note the time: Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 3:35 Eastern time.
The NHC diagram below shows a veritable parade of potential storms marching from Africa toward the Americas.
Lowdown on the Lows
Starting with the yellow area moving off the coast of Western Africa:
Yellow Area on Right
A tropical wave located near the western coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the next several days. Formation chance through 7 days…still low…20 percent.
Red Area with X
The red cross-hatched area to the left of the yellow is a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for further development. A short-lived tropical depression will likely form this weekend and move west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is not expected. Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.
TD #6
Tropical Depression #6 formed in the central, tropical Atlantic this afternoon. The system will move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, upper-level winds will become increasingly unfavorable by late this weekend, so NHC does not anticipate any further development.
Orange Area Entering Caribbean
A broad area of low pressure has formed near the Windward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could form by early next week when the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.
Orange Area Entering Gulf
An area of disturbed weather located near the Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week where a broad area of low pressure will form. Some slow development is possible thereafter. A tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week. The storm will likely make landfall in South Texas and bring little rainfall to the Houston area north of I-10. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.
Satellite Image Shows Current Conditions in Gulf and Eastern Pacific
The last area represents the most imminent threat to Texas. Here’s what it looks like in a satellite image. Not very impressive at the moment, especially compared to Hurricane Hilary in the Pacific (on the left).
Conditions can change rapidly so prepare and stay aware.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/19/23 based on information from the NHC
2181 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/two_atl_7d0-1.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2023-08-19 17:07:232023-08-19 17:59:04Tropics Show More Activity, Higher Probabilities since Yesterday
Three Named Storms in Atlantic in Two Days, Could Get Fourth
8/21/23 (9 AM CDT) – Three named storms have formed in the Atlantic in two days and we will likely get fourth (in the Gulf of Mexico) today or tomorrow.
Tropical storms Emily and Gert formed in the Atlantic yesterday (8/20/23). Gert formed overnight. And a fourth disturbance barreling across the Gulf of Mexico toward the lower Texas Coast could reach tropical storm intensity today or tomorrow, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
2023 Summary Compared to 30-Year Average
So far this year, the Atlantic Basin has had:
If the disturbance currently in the Gulf turns into a named storm, it will become Harold – the ninth storm of the year to reach tropical storm intensity.
Normally, by this week in the hurricane season, the Atlantic Basin has five named storms. See the table below from the NHC’s Climatology page.
Date upon which the following number of events
would normally have occurred.
Greatest Threat to Houston is Fire
None of the current disturbances in the Gulf, Caribbean or Atlantic represent a threat to Houston.
The closest storm to Houston is south of Mississippi as of 9AM Tuesday morning. It will miss the upper Texas Coast and likely come ashore between Corpus Christi and Brownsville tomorrow.
NHC says that showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization and banding. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development. And a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before it reaches the coastline on Tuesday. Formation chance is high…80 percent.
The greatest threat to the Houston area is not rain or flooding; north of I-10, we should see only about a tenth of an inch from the storm. But hot, dry conditions combined with a long-term drought have created critical fire weather conditions. A burn ban is in effect. High winds associated with the storm could spread fire quickly. So be careful. Several fires are already burning in other parts of East Texas.
Discussion of Other Disturbances
Unnamed Storm off African Coast
NHC gives the other unnamed storm off the coast of Africa a formation chance of 70% in the next 7 days.
Emily
Emily will also turn north. Its intensity will lessen into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.
Franklin
NHC predicts Franklin will turn north and cross Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti through the middle of the week. It could produce heavy rainfall; life-threatening flash and urban flooding; and mudslides through Wednesday.
Gert
Gert is quickly unraveling. NHC expects to downgrade it into a tropical depression by Monday at 2PM.
A Record?
Is three or four named storms in two or three days a record? According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, it’s not. The record is closer to five or six at one time, he says. Regardless, tropical activity is heating up. The peak of hurricane season is still three weeks away – September 10th. It looks like earlier predictions of an above-average season were accurate.
In the meantime, watch out for that heat! Here’s a summary put together by Lindner of record highs on 8/20/23.
College Station: 112 (tied all time record high from 9-4-2000, broke the all-time August record high of 110 from 8-17-1903, and shattered the daily record high of 107)
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/23
2183 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Gulf Disturbance Could Increase Fire Danger
(11AM 8/20/23 and updated at 7PM) Here’s something you don’t often see – a tropical disturbance that could increase fire danger more than flood risk.
The 8am 7-day tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows that Tropical Storm Emily has formed in the Atlantic. Separately, a disturbance lingering over the Bahamas has finally crossed over Florida and moved into the Gulf. However, the latter storm will likely miss Houston as it veers south into the lower Texas Coast and northern Mexico. That means…
Twelve hours later, another tropical storm formed in the Atlantic – Franklin. And NHC increased the chances for formation for the two orange disturbances to 70%.
Rainfall Chances for North Houston Area Slight
Unfortunately, the still unnamed Gulf disturbance will likely bring little rain to the Houston area. The 72-hour cumulative prediction from the National Weather Service shows about a quarter inch of rain south of I-10 and a tenth of an inch north of it.
As of Sunday morning, the disturbance is centered south of the Florida panhandle.
That big clear area over the southern plains and Texas is the high pressure system that has dominated our weather for the last month. It forms a barrier that will likely block the lower pressure system in the Gulf from moving north toward Houston.
High Winds, but Little Chance of Flooding
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist predicts that tropical moisture will begin to arrive along the Texas coast on Monday with offshore scattered activity increasing through the day.”
Lindner believes that I-10 will be a good dividing line between higher coastal rain chances and lower inland chances late Monday into Tuesday.
Said Lindner, “There will likely be a strong south to north rainfall gradient over the region … with rain chances in the 50-60% range near the coast, 30-40% along I-10, and generally less than 30% north of I-10.
Lindner expects wind gusts up to 30 knots on Monday and Tuesday as the storm passes. He also predicts that seas will build 5-9 feet for most offshore waters. He also predicts that tides will be elevated late Monday into Tuesday, but he doesn’t expect them to reach critical thresholds or cause any issues along the coast or in the inland bays.
Inland winds will increase Monday into the 15-20 mph range with higher gusts. Ironically, the biggest threat from this storm may be fire.
Lindner predicts that the high winds inland along with low humidity and critically dry vegetation will support an enhanced fire danger for those areas along and north of I-10. “Fires could quickly spread in these conditions,” warns Lindner.
Red Flag Warnings
At 2:39 PM, Lindner announced that red flag warnings had been issued for most counties in SE Texas including Harris, Montgomery and Liberty.
Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions will exist on Monday as the tropical system approaches. It will increase the pressure gradient across much of SE TX. Humidity values will decrease through Monday and reach below 30% during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Fuels loads are critically dry over the region, said Lindner. “Small fire will grow rapidly. Fires continue to exhibit aggressive behavior in pine areas and winds on Monday.Ccanopy crown runs will make containment lines challenging.
Fire conditions have deteriorated to those similar to August and September 2011 when several large devastating fires occurred over portions of SE and central Texas.
Extreme Drought Conditions Persist
In fact, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows that the Lake Houston Area is in Extreme Drought.
What have temperatures and rainfall been compared to the 30-year average?
Temperatures so far this year have been consistently above the average for the last thirty years (green line compared to yellow line). Rainfall (blue and red bars) has been both above and below average. April and May were both above average. But June, July and August have been far below.
According to the Harris County Flood Warning System, the West Fork San Jacinto gage at US59 last received rain on July 23rd – four one-hundredths of an inch!
Obviously, this is not the time for outdoor burning! In fact, the Texas A&M Forest Service shows that most Texas counties currently have burn bans.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/2023
2182 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Tropics Show More Activity, Higher Probabilities since Yesterday
What a difference a day makes! Yesterday, the Atlantic Basin had four areas of concern. Today, it has five. And, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the chances of tropical development have increased for all of them since yesterday. See the seven-day outlook for the Atlantic Basin below and note the time: Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 3:35 Eastern time.
The NHC diagram below shows a veritable parade of potential storms marching from Africa toward the Americas.
Lowdown on the Lows
Starting with the yellow area moving off the coast of Western Africa:
Yellow Area on Right
A tropical wave located near the western coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the next several days. Formation chance through 7 days…still low…20 percent.
Red Area with X
The red cross-hatched area to the left of the yellow is a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for further development. A short-lived tropical depression will likely form this weekend and move west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is not expected. Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.
TD #6
Tropical Depression #6 formed in the central, tropical Atlantic this afternoon. The system will move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, upper-level winds will become increasingly unfavorable by late this weekend, so NHC does not anticipate any further development.
Orange Area Entering Caribbean
A broad area of low pressure has formed near the Windward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could form by early next week when the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.
Orange Area Entering Gulf
An area of disturbed weather located near the Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week where a broad area of low pressure will form. Some slow development is possible thereafter. A tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week. The storm will likely make landfall in South Texas and bring little rainfall to the Houston area north of I-10. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.
Satellite Image Shows Current Conditions in Gulf and Eastern Pacific
The last area represents the most imminent threat to Texas. Here’s what it looks like in a satellite image. Not very impressive at the moment, especially compared to Hurricane Hilary in the Pacific (on the left).
Conditions can change rapidly so prepare and stay aware.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/19/23 based on information from the NHC
2181 Days since Hurricane Harvey