Misleading statements. Broken promises. Redefining commonly accepted meanings of words. Math that doesn’t add up. Gobbledygook explanations. These practices have all become “business as usual” in Harris County Commissioners Court. And they come with a high price tag.
Bait-and-Switch Bonds
To get the 2022 Road and Parks Bond approved, County Judge Lina Hidalgo, Commissioner Adrian Garcia, and Commissioner Rodney Ellis voted to allocate a minimum of $220 million to each precinct. They heavily promoted the guaranteed minimum in pre-referendum advertising, online and in community meetings.
Screen capture from County bond web site shows two promises were broken.
A short while after voters approved the bond, the Democrats voted to shortchange Precinct 3 by $32.5 million – even though P3 has 47% of the county’s roads and 35% of the county’s parks. They also voted to give $110 million to Harris County Engineering for administration.
Commissioner Ramsey has been trying to win back the amount P3 voters were shortchanged. But in a 10/31/2023 meeting, Commissioners Garcia and Ellis implied that their portions of funding were already spent, so they couldn’t be reallocated.
Said Garcia, “Right now, of the allocation that I’ve got, my guys have already let that out the door. Yeah.”
Ellis replied, “Yeah, we’ve already committed our funds as well.”
However, when I asked the Harris County Engineering Department for a list of projects funded by the 2022 Road and Parks Bond, they could find no records responsive to my request.
Reviewing bids approved by Harris County’s Commissioners Court between January 1 and November 6 of this year showed that Ellis has spent less than a million dollars on road improvements. Ellis and Garcia together spent less than $7.7 million on road projects. So how did $562 million get “out the door”?
They may have “plans” for spending $562 million, but so far, they’ve only actually spent somewhere between $0.00 and $7.7 million from the bond.
Their choice of words implied that even if they wanted to achieve a fairer balance, it was too late. Did they chose those words accidentally or intentionally?
In the same meeting, Judge Hidalgo and Budget Director Daniel Ramos tried to explain why they shortchanged Precinct 3 in the first place.
Lina Hidalgo’s Explanation
Hidalgo said, “What I have here, and maybe Ramos can jump in, is that we approved 220 to each precinct and the remaining balance according to SVI, because we hadn’t thought about … there’s overhead costs of 110 million. And I think that just literally nobody thought about it. I asked my team, ‘Go back at the notes and see if you know anybody had that anywhere and just hit it or whatever.’ Well, it’s not anywhere. So then by the time January rolled around, the budget folks or whomever came back and said, you know, we actually have to shave 110 off the top. And so, then we changed it from 220 to 175, given that we shaved 110 off the top. So, it’s 175 minimum for each precinct and the rest according to SVI.”
SVI refers to the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index.
Issues with Hidalgo Explanation
First, she broke a promise to voters. But there are several other problems:
If overhead costs were really $110 million, you would reduce the minimum for each precinct by $27.5 million, not $45 million. Said another way, $45 million per precinct adds up to $180 million, not $110.
Why are we paying current employee salaries out of bonds that will require interest payments for a decade or more? Especially when the County said it wouldn’t use any bond money to fund day-to-day operations. (See screen capture above.)
The much larger flood bond in 2018 had zero for administrative overhead (although admittedly there were $10 million worth of legal and accounting fees associated with buying the bonds).
Ramos Explanation
Budget Director Daniel Ramos then said to Hidalgo, “You’re correct. So, I believe in January, sorry, the first or second quarter, this new constituted body came back and changed the formula. One: to carve off 110% or, sorry, 10% off of the 900 million for roads and parks to allocate to the county engineer and then precinct 2 put up a motion to do 70, a little over 70%, which is the 175 number plus, and the remainder, which is 29.8%, give or take, for SVI. And that’s where we are today. And that vote passed four zero …”
Problems with Ramos’ Explanation
While purporting to support Hidalgo, Ramos’ explanation contradicts hers. Seventy percent of 220 is 154, not 175. The bond was for $1.1 billion, not $900 million. And his explanation has the feel of a major-league curve ball.
The 2022 Road and Parks Bond was a classic bait-and-switch scheme. And it’s not the first time such deception happened.
Flood-Bond Deception
The same leaders did the same thing after the 2018 flood bond passed. Ellis even bragged openly in commissioners court about how he tricked voters.
The three Democrats promised to focus flood control spending on the hardest hit areas first. But they have not. They defined “worst first” to mean the “poorest” watersheds, not those that had the “most severe flooding.”
Such explanations and actions undermine the credibility of elected officials and trust in government.
These are not little, white lies. They are whoppers involving billions of dollars.
Worse, because of inflation, affluent areas that desperately need flood mitigation may get none. Twenty-percent inflation since 2020 has trimmed $1 billion off the purchasing power of the 2018 flood bond.
So areas that ranked low on the Democrat’s Equity Prioritization Framework may get little or no help from the tax dollars they approved.
Loss of trust could jeopardize future bonds. After the bait and switch with the 2018 Flood Bond, the 2022 Road and Parks bond received far less support, even with the guaranteed minimum per precinct.
To come together, leaders must stop misleading. They must promise what they will deliver and deliver what they promise. Or we’ll all wind up in the semantic rubber room wondering what’s real and what’s not.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/7/23
2291 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/20231207-Screenshot-2023-12-07-at-11.22.17%E2%80%AFAM.jpg?fit=1100%2C616&ssl=16161100adminadmin2023-12-07 14:55:372023-12-08 06:57:04Editorial: What Happens When Leaders Become Misleaders
Adapted from NOAA Post: The above-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on Nov. 30. It was characterized by record-warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, a strong El Niño, and the fourth highest number of named storms in a season.
NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite captured Hurricane Idalia approaching the western coast of Florida while Hurricane Franklin churned in the Atlantic Ocean at 5:01 p.m. EDT on August 29, 2023. (Image credit: NOAA Satellites )
20 Named Storms, One of Which was Unnamed
The Atlantic basin saw 20 named storms in 2023. That ranks fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950. The unnamed-named storm was a tropical storm in January that was retroactively classified as a tropical storm.
Seven storms were hurricanes and three intensified to major hurricanes. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The Atlantic basin saw 20 named storms in 2023, ranking 4th for most-named storms in a year. Tropical cyclone names are selected by the World Meteorological Organization. (Image credit: NOAA)
Only One U.S. Landfalling Hurricane
Hurricane Idalia was the only U.S. landfalling hurricane in 2023. It made landfall as a category-3 hurricane on Aug. 30 near Keaton Beach, Florida, causing storm surge inundation of 7 to 12 feet and widespread rainfall flooding in Florida and throughout the southeast.
Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Emerald Isle, North Carolina, on Sept. 23 causing widespread heavy rainfall, gusty winds and significant river and storm surge flooding in portions of eastern North Carolina.
Hurricane Lee made landfall as a post-tropical cyclone in Nova Scotia, Canada, on Sept. 16. Swells generated by Lee caused dangerous surf and rip currents along the entire U.S. Atlantic coast. Strong winds with hurricane‑force gusts from Lee caused extensive power outages in Maine and in parts of Canada.
“The Atlantic basin produced the most named storms of any El Nino influenced year in the modern record,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “The record-warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic provided a strong counterbalance to the traditional El Nino impacts.”
Eastern Pacific Also Above Normal, but Within Predicted Range
The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was also above normal with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes. From Aug. 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.
Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on Oct. 25 as a category-5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest landfalling hurricane in the eastern Pacific after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.
The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin. Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.
Hazards Felt Well Inland Underscores Need for Planning
“Another active hurricane season comes to a close where hazards from the storms extended well inland from the landfall location,” said NOAA National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan, Ph.D. “This underscores the importance of having a plan to stay safe whether you’re at the coast or inland.”
New System Improved Intensity Predictions, Response Times
NOAA’s new Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System helped National Hurricane Center forecasters improve intensity predictions this season. NOAA’s intensity forecasts showed Hurricane Idalia as a major hurricane impacting the coast of Florida as early as Aug. 28.
This lead time gave those in threatened areas more time to prepare and respond, and there were no storm surge fatalities from Idalia despite storm surge inundation of as much as 12 feet above ground level in some areas. Further, extending the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook product from five to seven days, this season provided emergency managers more time to prepare and stage resources before a storm.
NOAA’s Hurricane Research and Response
This season, NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew 468 mission hours to collect atmospheric data that is critical to hurricane forecasting and research, passing through the eye of a hurricane 120 times and deploying over 1,400 scientific instruments. Since 2020 through this 2023 season, NOAA’s two Lockheed WP-3D Orion have flown 40% more hurricane mission flights than the preceding four years (2016-2019).
NOAA celebrated the first operational launch of a Black Swift drone from a NOAA WP-3D Orion to gather atmospheric data in and around Hurricane Tammy. Further, the first successful coordination of a low-flying drone (Anduril’s Altius 600), atmospheric profilers (dropsondes), and ocean profilers (bathythermographs) also launched from a NOAA WP-3D Orion.
Observations and information from these deployments are being evaluated to determine the feasibility of using the data to help with hurricane forecasting in the future.
NOAA’s Beechcraft King Air flew 28 mission hours to collect aerial imagery used for emergency response after Hurricanes Idalia and Lee. Following Hurricane Idalia, NOAA’s National Ocean Service provided support to enable safe maritime navigation, gathering survey data for 36.8 linear nautical miles and identifying 29 potential obstructions along Florida’s coastal waterways.
NOAA also worked to identify hazards caused by capsized vessels, damaged docks and piers, parts of homes and other types of marine debris, and shared findings with Florida’s debris task force following Hurricane Idalia.
New Use of Weather Satellites
NOAA’s geostationary and polar-orbiting weather satellites provided vital information for monitoring and forecasting the hurricanes and tropical weather that threatened our lives and property this season. Forecasters used one-minute geostationary satellite imagery to assess structure changes during the rapid intensity of storms such as Idalia, Lee and Otis.
NOAA’s polar-orbiting satellites orbit the Earth from pole to pole 14 times a day, providing full global coverage twice daily. Throughout the hurricane season, these satellites made sophisticated and precise observations of the atmosphere, ocean and land, which were critical to developing daily and 3-5 day forecasts.
Timing for Next Year’s Forecast and Official 2023 Report
The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Reports for 2023, including synoptic history, meteorological statistics, casualties and damages, and the post-analysis best track, will be published on the 2023 Tropical Cyclone Report site in March 2024.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, will issue its 2024 hurricane seasonal outlook in May 2024. The hurricane season officially begins on June 1.
Adapted from NOAA Story by Bob Rehak
2290 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-End-English-Nov-2023-e1701905255102.png?fit=1200%2C746&ssl=17461200adminadmin2023-12-06 17:38:102023-12-06 17:38:122023 Hurricane Season Ranked 4th in Named Storms
Last week, I published a three-part series on the root causes of flooding. Some readers immediately started leaping to solutions. But different mitigation strategies each have pros and cons. That prompted the idea for this post. Flood control experts say that there are only three things you can do with excess stormwater:
Store it.
Convey it.
Avoid it.
Within each of these high-level strategies, a range of tactical alternatives exists. Let’s look at them and their pros and cons.
Storage
Storage alternatives include detention basins, reservoirs and levees. They can trap excess water during storms and release it slowly after the storm passes.
PROS
Can be multi-use. Dry detention basins can double as parks or sports fields. Large reservoirs can supply water and recreation.
Usually involves destruction of the original habitat/land cover, and sometimes even whole neighborhoods
Requires constant maintenance in perpetuity
Expensive and difficult to retrofit and/or repair, as we’re seeing with the Lake Houston Dam gates.
A small part of Willow Water Hole at South Post Oak and Hwy 90. Provides recreational alternatives and water quality features, but requires constant upkeep.
Conveyance
Increasing conveyance usually involves: channel widening/modifications; concrete-lining to accelerate throughput; straightening channels to reduce travel time; or creating new, supplementary pathways such as storm tunnels.
PROS
Proven to be very effective.
Relatively simple concept and easy to understand.
CONS
Can require extensive right-of-way acquisition and relocations of homes/businesses.
Can destroy habitat along channel banks.
In urban areas, modifying bridge crossings and moving utility lines adds significant expense. For instance, since 2000, we have spent approximately half a billion dollars to widen Brays Bayou and rebuild 30 bridges across it.
Prevention is always less expensive than correction and usually the least expensive option.
Floodplain conservation can result in dual-use opportunities (i.e., parks/trails). From a developer’s point of view, homes near green space usually fetch higher prices.
Structure elevation can significantly reduce risk of flooding, but it’s much harder and more costly after flood damage than during original construction.
CONS
New regulations/building codes can be difficult to get approved. FEMA estimates that adoption of hazard-resistant building codes saved $32 billion during the last 20 years and could save another $132 billion by 2040. But Texas hasn’t updated its building codes since 2012.
Floodplain acquisition can be very expensive. And doing it before surrounding land is developed means the Benefit/Cost Ratio probably won’t qualify for federal assistance.
Pier-and-beam foundations are not as popular as slab-on-grade foundation for single-family, residential development. They’re also usually more expensive.
Once intended to be a subdivision within Kingwood, the 158 acre East End Park is now one of the community’s most popular attractions. It draws approximately 100,000 visitors each year.It also buffers surrounding homes from flooding.
Finding the Best Alternative
No one answer exists for every situation. To find the optimal solution, engineers study multiple alternatives and weigh their costs against the benefits. Then comes the hard part – finding the money to build them. No one budgets for disasters. We typically deal with disasters after the fact.
Altogether, projects such as these can take a decade or more to develop. And during that time, flood risk can be a shifting target because of upstream development and revisions to rainfall probability statistics. Personally, I’m a big advocate of caution when it comes to living near water. Your best bet is to avoid flooding.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/5/2023 based on information from leading hydrologists
2289 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/20211201-DJI_0913.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2023-12-05 08:36:452023-12-05 09:18:57Pros, Cons of Strategies to Reduce Flood Damage
Editorial: What Happens When Leaders Become Misleaders
Misleading statements. Broken promises. Redefining commonly accepted meanings of words. Math that doesn’t add up. Gobbledygook explanations. These practices have all become “business as usual” in Harris County Commissioners Court. And they come with a high price tag.
Bait-and-Switch Bonds
To get the 2022 Road and Parks Bond approved, County Judge Lina Hidalgo, Commissioner Adrian Garcia, and Commissioner Rodney Ellis voted to allocate a minimum of $220 million to each precinct. They heavily promoted the guaranteed minimum in pre-referendum advertising, online and in community meetings.
A short while after voters approved the bond, the Democrats voted to shortchange Precinct 3 by $32.5 million – even though P3 has 47% of the county’s roads and 35% of the county’s parks. They also voted to give $110 million to Harris County Engineering for administration.
It was a blatant bait-and-switch scheme.
Commissioner Ramsey has been trying to win back the amount P3 voters were shortchanged. But in a 10/31/2023 meeting, Commissioners Garcia and Ellis implied that their portions of funding were already spent, so they couldn’t be reallocated.
Said Garcia, “Right now, of the allocation that I’ve got, my guys have already let that out the door. Yeah.”
Ellis replied, “Yeah, we’ve already committed our funds as well.”
However, when I asked the Harris County Engineering Department for a list of projects funded by the 2022 Road and Parks Bond, they could find no records responsive to my request.
Reviewing bids approved by Harris County’s Commissioners Court between January 1 and November 6 of this year showed that Ellis has spent less than a million dollars on road improvements. Ellis and Garcia together spent less than $7.7 million on road projects. So how did $562 million get “out the door”?
They may have “plans” for spending $562 million, but so far, they’ve only actually spent somewhere between $0.00 and $7.7 million from the bond.
Their choice of words implied that even if they wanted to achieve a fairer balance, it was too late. Did they chose those words accidentally or intentionally?
Explanation For Unequal Minimum Distribution
In the same meeting, Judge Hidalgo and Budget Director Daniel Ramos tried to explain why they shortchanged Precinct 3 in the first place.
Lina Hidalgo’s Explanation
Hidalgo said, “What I have here, and maybe Ramos can jump in, is that we approved 220 to each precinct and the remaining balance according to SVI, because we hadn’t thought about … there’s overhead costs of 110 million. And I think that just literally nobody thought about it. I asked my team, ‘Go back at the notes and see if you know anybody had that anywhere and just hit it or whatever.’ Well, it’s not anywhere. So then by the time January rolled around, the budget folks or whomever came back and said, you know, we actually have to shave 110 off the top. And so, then we changed it from 220 to 175, given that we shaved 110 off the top. So, it’s 175 minimum for each precinct and the rest according to SVI.”
SVI refers to the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index.
Issues with Hidalgo Explanation
First, she broke a promise to voters. But there are several other problems:
Ramos Explanation
Budget Director Daniel Ramos then said to Hidalgo, “You’re correct. So, I believe in January, sorry, the first or second quarter, this new constituted body came back and changed the formula. One: to carve off 110% or, sorry, 10% off of the 900 million for roads and parks to allocate to the county engineer and then precinct 2 put up a motion to do 70, a little over 70%, which is the 175 number plus, and the remainder, which is 29.8%, give or take, for SVI. And that’s where we are today. And that vote passed four zero …”
Problems with Ramos’ Explanation
While purporting to support Hidalgo, Ramos’ explanation contradicts hers. Seventy percent of 220 is 154, not 175. The bond was for $1.1 billion, not $900 million. And his explanation has the feel of a major-league curve ball.
The 2022 Road and Parks Bond was a classic bait-and-switch scheme. And it’s not the first time such deception happened.
Flood-Bond Deception
The same leaders did the same thing after the 2018 flood bond passed. Ellis even bragged openly in commissioners court about how he tricked voters.
The three Democrats promised to focus flood control spending on the hardest hit areas first. But they have not. They defined “worst first” to mean the “poorest” watersheds, not those that had the “most severe flooding.”
Even though language in the bond promised an “equitable distribution” of funds, the Democrats adopted a formula based largely on income and social vulnerability, without regard to flood risk or damage. That heavily skewed distribution of bond money. As a result, 65% of the flood bond projects that lost funding this year were in Precinct 3.
These are not little, white lies. They are whoppers involving billions of dollars.
Worse, because of inflation, affluent areas that desperately need flood mitigation may get none. Twenty-percent inflation since 2020 has trimmed $1 billion off the purchasing power of the 2018 flood bond.
So areas that ranked low on the Democrat’s Equity Prioritization Framework may get little or no help from the tax dollars they approved.
Consequences of Loss of Trust
Declining trust in government reduces support for government action to address a range of policy concerns, including flooding. Distrust makes it harder to make collective decisions that advance the common good. It fosters polarization in politics. And undermines faith in elections.
Loss of trust could jeopardize future bonds. After the bait and switch with the 2018 Flood Bond, the 2022 Road and Parks bond received far less support, even with the guaranteed minimum per precinct.
To come together, leaders must stop misleading. They must promise what they will deliver and deliver what they promise. Or we’ll all wind up in the semantic rubber room wondering what’s real and what’s not.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/7/23
2291 Days since Hurricane Harvey
2023 Hurricane Season Ranked 4th in Named Storms
Adapted from NOAA Post: The above-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on Nov. 30. It was characterized by record-warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, a strong El Niño, and the fourth highest number of named storms in a season.
20 Named Storms, One of Which was Unnamed
The Atlantic basin saw 20 named storms in 2023. That ranks fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950. The unnamed-named storm was a tropical storm in January that was retroactively classified as a tropical storm.
Seven storms were hurricanes and three intensified to major hurricanes. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Only One U.S. Landfalling Hurricane
Hurricane Idalia was the only U.S. landfalling hurricane in 2023. It made landfall as a category-3 hurricane on Aug. 30 near Keaton Beach, Florida, causing storm surge inundation of 7 to 12 feet and widespread rainfall flooding in Florida and throughout the southeast.
Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Emerald Isle, North Carolina, on Sept. 23 causing widespread heavy rainfall, gusty winds and significant river and storm surge flooding in portions of eastern North Carolina.
Hurricane Lee made landfall as a post-tropical cyclone in Nova Scotia, Canada, on Sept. 16. Swells generated by Lee caused dangerous surf and rip currents along the entire U.S. Atlantic coast. Strong winds with hurricane‑force gusts from Lee caused extensive power outages in Maine and in parts of Canada.
Season Fell within Predicted Range
The 2023 Atlantic seasonal activity fell within the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s predicted ranges for named storms and hurricanes in the August updated outlook.
“The Atlantic basin produced the most named storms of any El Nino influenced year in the modern record,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “The record-warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic provided a strong counterbalance to the traditional El Nino impacts.”
Eastern Pacific Also Above Normal, but Within Predicted Range
The eastern Pacific basin hurricane season was also above normal with 17 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes and eight of those major hurricanes. From Aug. 16 to 21, Tropical Storm Hilary brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. Hilary resulted in the first ever issuance of Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for the Southern California coastline by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. In addition, the Center distributed key hazard focused messages for Hilary in Spanish through the agency’s new language translation project.
Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, on Oct. 25 as a category-5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 mph. Otis holds the record as the strongest landfalling hurricane in the eastern Pacific after undergoing rapid intensification in which wind speeds increased by 115 mph in 24 hours.
The central Pacific basin had a near-normal season with four tropical systems traversing the basin. Hurricane Dora, a category-4 storm, passed south of Hawaii in early August, marking the first major hurricane in the central Pacific basin since 2020. The strong gradient between a high pressure system to the north and Dora to the south was a contributing factor to the wind-driven, fast-moving wildfires in Hawaii.
Hurricane season activity for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific fell within predicted ranges.
Hazards Felt Well Inland Underscores Need for Planning
“Another active hurricane season comes to a close where hazards from the storms extended well inland from the landfall location,” said NOAA National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan, Ph.D. “This underscores the importance of having a plan to stay safe whether you’re at the coast or inland.”
New System Improved Intensity Predictions, Response Times
NOAA’s new Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System helped National Hurricane Center forecasters improve intensity predictions this season. NOAA’s intensity forecasts showed Hurricane Idalia as a major hurricane impacting the coast of Florida as early as Aug. 28.
This lead time gave those in threatened areas more time to prepare and respond, and there were no storm surge fatalities from Idalia despite storm surge inundation of as much as 12 feet above ground level in some areas. Further, extending the National Hurricane Center’s tropical weather outlook product from five to seven days, this season provided emergency managers more time to prepare and stage resources before a storm.
NOAA’s Hurricane Research and Response
This season, NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew 468 mission hours to collect atmospheric data that is critical to hurricane forecasting and research, passing through the eye of a hurricane 120 times and deploying over 1,400 scientific instruments. Since 2020 through this 2023 season, NOAA’s two Lockheed WP-3D Orion have flown 40% more hurricane mission flights than the preceding four years (2016-2019).
NOAA celebrated the first operational launch of a Black Swift drone from a NOAA WP-3D Orion to gather atmospheric data in and around Hurricane Tammy. Further, the first successful coordination of a low-flying drone (Anduril’s Altius 600), atmospheric profilers (dropsondes), and ocean profilers (bathythermographs) also launched from a NOAA WP-3D Orion.
Observations and information from these deployments are being evaluated to determine the feasibility of using the data to help with hurricane forecasting in the future.
NOAA’s Beechcraft King Air flew 28 mission hours to collect aerial imagery used for emergency response after Hurricanes Idalia and Lee. Following Hurricane Idalia, NOAA’s National Ocean Service provided support to enable safe maritime navigation, gathering survey data for 36.8 linear nautical miles and identifying 29 potential obstructions along Florida’s coastal waterways.
NOAA also worked to identify hazards caused by capsized vessels, damaged docks and piers, parts of homes and other types of marine debris, and shared findings with Florida’s debris task force following Hurricane Idalia.
New Use of Weather Satellites
NOAA’s geostationary and polar-orbiting weather satellites provided vital information for monitoring and forecasting the hurricanes and tropical weather that threatened our lives and property this season. Forecasters used one-minute geostationary satellite imagery to assess structure changes during the rapid intensity of storms such as Idalia, Lee and Otis.
NOAA’s polar-orbiting satellites orbit the Earth from pole to pole 14 times a day, providing full global coverage twice daily. Throughout the hurricane season, these satellites made sophisticated and precise observations of the atmosphere, ocean and land, which were critical to developing daily and 3-5 day forecasts.
Timing for Next Year’s Forecast and Official 2023 Report
The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Reports for 2023, including synoptic history, meteorological statistics, casualties and damages, and the post-analysis best track, will be published on the 2023 Tropical Cyclone Report site in March 2024.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, will issue its 2024 hurricane seasonal outlook in May 2024. The hurricane season officially begins on June 1.
Adapted from NOAA Story by Bob Rehak
2290 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Pros, Cons of Strategies to Reduce Flood Damage
Last week, I published a three-part series on the root causes of flooding. Some readers immediately started leaping to solutions. But different mitigation strategies each have pros and cons. That prompted the idea for this post. Flood control experts say that there are only three things you can do with excess stormwater:
Within each of these high-level strategies, a range of tactical alternatives exists. Let’s look at them and their pros and cons.
Storage
Storage alternatives include detention basins, reservoirs and levees. They can trap excess water during storms and release it slowly after the storm passes.
PROS
CONS
Conveyance
Increasing conveyance usually involves: channel widening/modifications; concrete-lining to accelerate throughput; straightening channels to reduce travel time; or creating new, supplementary pathways such as storm tunnels.
PROS
CONS
Avoidance
The avoidance strategy involves several different strategies: building on high ground far from rivers; elevating structures; conserving floodplains; implementing better building codes and more.
PROS
CONS
Finding the Best Alternative
No one answer exists for every situation. To find the optimal solution, engineers study multiple alternatives and weigh their costs against the benefits. Then comes the hard part – finding the money to build them. No one budgets for disasters. We typically deal with disasters after the fact.
Altogether, projects such as these can take a decade or more to develop. And during that time, flood risk can be a shifting target because of upstream development and revisions to rainfall probability statistics. Personally, I’m a big advocate of caution when it comes to living near water. Your best bet is to avoid flooding.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/5/2023 based on information from leading hydrologists
2289 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.