At Peak of Hurricane Season, No Hurricanes. How Unusual is That?

9/10/26 – Looking back at the last 100 years, today is the statistical peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. However, this year will also set a record for the latest “first hurricane” in recorded history…if we get one.

Since 1950, the record for the latest first hurricane was set in 2002 by Gustav and later tied in 2013 by Humberto. Both formed on September 11, according to AccuWeather.

“If no hurricane forms by Friday (Sept. 11), the 2026 Atlantic season will mark the latest point in the satellite era without an Atlantic hurricane,” they said.

Hurricane Climatology

So far this year, the season looks like a rarity. How much so? Check out the charts below taken from the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) Climatology page. All represent data for the Atlantic Basin.

The first shows the number of hurricanes observed from May through December in the last hundred years. The historical peak happens today, September 10.

But the screen capture below, shows no tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. And NONE expected for the next seven days.

So, 2026 will go down in the record books as a late bloomer. And if the wind sheer induced by the current El Niño continues, who knows? We could tie 1914.

Defining Normal

Weather forecasters nationwide are cherry picking their own frames of reference. Some say this will be the latest start since 1950…a nice round number. Others are saying, this will be the latest start since 1963…the start of the satellite era, which helped improve our global acuity.

NHC’s climatology page shows what happens when in a normal year…defined as the average in a recent 30 year period.

“Normally” by now, we would have had eight named storms, three of which were hurricanes and one of which was a major hurricane.

The chart below shows where those storms start during the first ten days of September.

Converting that into a heat map that illustrates the relative risk of a cyclone striking you shows that the Houston area (green) lies in the middle of pack. The Mississippi delta region and the East Coast from Miami to Virginia have all had more cyclones strike them in the last hundred years during September.

Finally, looking back to 1851, the number of cyclones in the Atlantic Basin seems to be increasing. However, advances in technology, such as satellites, may skew the numbers. Still, you can clearly see immense variation within relatively short periods.

For instance, reviewing the table associated with the bar graph above shows that in 2014, the Atlantic had just eight named storms. In 2020, we had 30.

The data also shows only two years since 1851 without any hurricanes…1907 and 1914. Both occurred more than a hundred years ago.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/2026 based on NHC data.

3299 Days since Hurricane Harvey