NHC Monitoring Two Areas in Atlantic for Tropical Development
8/29/26 – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an outlook this morning that highlights two areas in the Atlantic basin for potential tropical development. One in the Gulf could potentially reach the Houston area. However, NHC gives both areas a low chance of formation in the next seven days.
See more details below.
Northeastern/North Central Gulf
Disorganized cloudiness and showers over portions of the northeastern and north-central Gulf of America are associated with a weak area of low pressure centered about 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, Florida.
The system will move west to west-northwest along the northern Gulf coast into early next week.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow while it drifts westward for the next few days. NHC gives it a 0 percent chance of formation in the next two cays and a 10 percent chance in seven days.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, says that morning radar from New Orleans and Mobile showed the low roughly 100 miles south-southwest of Pensacola, FL. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this feature is disorganized.
Surface pressures have fallen some in the last 24 hours, but the drop has not been significant, according to Lindner.
Overall motion is slow to the west or southwest. Strong westerly wind shear located along the US Gulf coast will discourage development. But some models suggest a 20 percent chance.
Remnants of Dolly East of Leeward Islands
Several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly,
However, there are no signs that the system is developing a closed circulation. Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward to west-northwestward near 25 mph. It could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next several days.
Formation chance through 48 hours is low…near 0 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days. is currently 10 percent.
Early morning visible images do not indicate any sort of closed, low-level circulation and the wave is approaching strong, upper-level, westerly wind shear. If any formation takes place, it will likely happen late next week or over the Labor Day weekend.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/29/26
3287 Days since Hurricane Harvey
