Tropical Forecast Lowered for Remainder of 2026 Season
8/6/2026 – One of the strongest El Niños ever is suppressing tropical activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf. El Niños create wind shear that disrupts the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. As a result, forecasters have lowered their estimates which were already below normal to begin with.
NOAA Updates Seasonal Forecast
In an email this morning, Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, wrote, “Updates to the seasonal Atlantic basin hurricane outlooks this week continue to indicate a high chance of below to well below normal activity across the Atlantic basin as we move through the peak of the season (August-October).”
That’s welcome news. “The main driver of the highly negative conditions is the continued increasing El Niño event well underway in the waters of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. There, sea surface temperatures are currently running (1-3º C above normal values),” said Lindner.
El Niño Region 3.4 (the dark area off the western coast of South America) tends to correlate highly with weather impacts in North America, including shifts in the jet stream. Niño 3.4 is currently averaging a sea surface temperature anomaly of +2.3º C.
One of Worst El Niño Events since 1950
“That already approaches some of the maximum El Niño events since 1950,” added Lindner. “With the likely peak of this event around December or January…it is now fairly likely that one of the strongest El Niño events in modern times will occur.”
El Nino events, especially of this magnitude, tend to produce tremendous wind shear values across the deep tropics in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. They effectively tear apart any tropical system attempts at development.
“Wind shear values of 40-60 kts have been common across the Caribbean so far this hurricane season,” said Lindner. “They extend eastward into the tropical Atlantic and are some of the strongest on record in this part of the basin.”
In addition to the high wind shear values, Lindner also cited dry sinking air that continues to dominate much of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean. He noted slightly more favorable conditions north of the Bahamas and through the northern Gulf.
Sea surface temperatures are running near normal to slightly above normal in some parts of the Atlantic basin. High negative wind shear values and dry sinking air are resulting in lower than average instability and a general overall lack in thunderstorm activity.
“One of the Quietest Seasons since 1997”
Accordingly, the seasonal outlook numbers for the basin remain well below the average of 14 named storms. Two “tropical storms” have already occurred (Arthur and Bertha) both of which impacted the northern Gulf coast and suffered greatly under adverse conditions keeping their intensity low and organization poor.
The basin is on track to be one of the quietest seasons since 1997 (another powerful El Niño year).
Lindner says there will be small windows of favorable conditions, most likely in August and September. For instance, areas in the middle Atlantic north of the highly unfavorable deep tropics could produce a few storms if tropical waves can reach those areas.
Budding meteorologists may be interested in reading NOAA’s entire seasonal outlook updated today. It’s a deep dive into the science of tropical forecasting.
It Only Takes One
Remember! Just because the outlook numbers are lower than average, does NOT mean there will not be any additional tropical storms or hurricanes or potential threats this year. So remain prepared.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/6/2026 based on information from Jeff Lindner
3264 Days since Hurricane Harvey
