Luck as a Flood-Control Strategy
7/25/2026 – Last Thursday, a meteorological fluke spared the Lake Houston Area from the worst of Tropical Storm Bertha. Others nearby were not so lucky.
The lopsided nature of Bertha, the collapse of the Capital Improvement Program (CIP) at Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD), the potential loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in Federal funding, and the resignation of former HCFCD Executive Director Dr. Tina Petersen under pressure should all serve as powerful reminders that luck is not a reliable flood control strategy.
Throughout history, many cultures, military organizations, emergency managers, coaches and writers have coined sayings that contrast the value of preparation with luck. Here are some of my favorites that could apply equally to flood control.
Classic Proverbs
“Luck favors the prepared.” (Often attributed to Louis Pasteur in various forms)
“An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” (Ben Franklin)
“Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.”
“Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”
“Dig the well before you’re thirsty.”
“Repair the roof while the sun is shining.” (Popularized by John F. Kennedy)
Military Sayings
“The more you sweat in peace, the less you bleed in war.”
“Proper planning prevents poor performance.” (Known as the Five Ps)
“Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.”
“Success depends on preparation, not hope.“
Emergency Management
Emergency managers often express the same idea without mentioning luck:
“Preparedness saves lives.”
“Disasters don’t plan ahead. You can.”
“Prepared, not scared.”
“When seconds count, preparation matters.”
Some that mention luck:
“Hope is not a strategy.”
“Luck is not a plan.”
“Don’t confuse good luck with good judgment.”
“Past success is not proof of future safety.”
“Just because you’ve been lucky doesn’t mean you’re safe.”
“Luck eventually runs out; preparation doesn’t.”
“Every disaster survivor was lucky. The prepared ones needed less luck.”
“The safest families don’t count on luck; they count on preparation.”
“Ignoring risk is gambling. Preparing for it is responsibility.”
Flood Control
“The best time to prepare for the next flood is before the river rises.”
“Floods don’t care how lucky you’ve been.”
“Every floodplain eventually reminds people why it’s a floodplain.”
“Nature keeps no record of how many times you’ve gotten away with it.”
“A century without a flood doesn’t cancel tomorrow’s forecast.”
Past is Not A Prologue
Many people mistake the absence of past losses for the absence of risk, when in reality they may simply have benefited from a run of favorable conditions. Two poignant expressions in that regard:
“When it comes to protecting your family, hope is a virtue—but preparation is a responsibility.”
“Building your family’s safety on luck is like buying insurance after the storm has begun.”
What You Can Do
So, what can ordinary citizens do to prepare? I have a very short list of suggestions.
- Familiarize yourself with preparation guides available on websites, such as this one and the National Hurricane Center’s.
- Become politically involved. Understand what is and isn’t being done to reduce your flood risk. And demand results.
- Support HCFCD’s new executive director as he tries to turn the organization’s CIP program around and start, once again, building the projects voters approved almost 9 years ago.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/25/2026
3252 Days since Hurricane Harvey
